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Foreign interference in the 2024 United States elections

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2024 U.S. presidential election
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Several nations have interfered in the 2024 United States elections. U.S. intelligence agencies have identified China,[1][2] Iran,[3][4][5] and Russia[6][7][8] as the most pressing concerns,[9] with Russia being the most active threat.[10]

Interference has included propaganda, disinformation, and misinformation campaigns using inauthentic accounts and websites on social media and the internet;[1][2][7][11] successful and unsuccessful attempts to hack presidential campaigns;[4] the promotion and denigration of specific candidates and causes;[6] and the posting of divisive content and conspiracy theories to cause domestic unrest and criticize the United States and democracy more broadly.[1][2]

Background

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Before the election, current and former U.S. officials stated that foreign interference in the 2024 election was likely. Three major factors cited were "America's deepening domestic political crises, the collapse of controversial attempts to control political speech on social media, and the rise of generative AI."[12]

In March 2021, the National Intelligence Council released a report that found Russia and Iran carried out operations to influence the 2020 election. It also stated that China "considered but did not deploy" influence efforts in 2020,[13] although it increased efforts by the 2022 midterms.[14] A declassified U.S. intelligence report released in December 2023 found with "high confidence" that a "diverse and growing group of foreign actors" including China, Russia, Iran, and Cuba had all interfered in the 2022 midterms with influence campaigns on social media to covertly advance the interests their respective nations, exacerbate social divisions, and sow doubt in democracy, voting, and the result of elections.[15]

In 2022, the Foreign Malign Influence Center was set up at the Intelligence Community Campus-Bethesda as a command hub to fight electoral disinformation surrounding the 2024 presidential election.[16]

Analysis

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In a statement on September 12, 2024, Matthew G. Olsen head of the Justice Department's National Security Division warned that foreign interference is a "clear and present danger" in the lead up to the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Among the nations he listed as posing a significant threat of interfering with the contest are Iran, Russia, China, and North Korea.[17] There are also indications Cuba is attempting to influence U.S. elections by targeting Spanish language social media users.[18] U.S. intelligence officials have described the efforts as part of broader efforts by authoritarian nations to use the internet to erode support for democracy.[1]

The Associated Press cites U.S. intelligence officials as describing Chinese interference as being more aggressive in recent months but overall cautious and nuanced, instead focusing on American policy towards Taiwan and undermining "confidence in elections, voting and the U.S. in general." Iran was also described as more aggressive than in the past, while Russia was described as remaining the top threat.[1] Iranian interference is described as attempting to tip the election against Trump, which is believed to be partly in response to Trump's withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal and the 2020 assassination of Qasem Soleimani. However, Iran has also targeted the Biden and Harris campaigns, which The New York Times described as suggesting "a wider goal of sowing internal discord and discrediting the democratic system in the United States more broadly in the eyes of the world."[3] U.S. intelligence has described Russian interference as supporting Trump, viewing him as more skeptical towards arming Ukraine.[8] China, Russia, and Iran have all promoted disinformation criticizing the Democratic nominee for president.[2][3][8] Officials from the ODNI and FBI have stated that Russia, Iran, and China are using generative artificial intelligence tools to create fake and divisive text, photos, video, and audio content to foster anti-Americanism and engage in covert influence campaigns. China's efforts are primarily focused on down-ballot races.[19] The use of artificial intelligence was described as an accelerant rather than a revolutionary change to influence efforts.[20]

The scale of electoral disinformation has been described by experts as a "firehose of disinformation" and exceeding anything in prior elections.[21] Several social media platforms have scaled back efforts to remove disinformation on their platforms[12] following criticism from American conservatives who allege political bias.[22] The New York Times has described Elon Musk's X as "perhaps the single biggest factor in today's disinformation landscape"[21] after gutting most of the websites content moderation team and safety features.[22] Musk has repeatedly shared and posted "demonstrably false anti-Harris disinformation to his 200 million followers" according to a USA Today investigation,[22] has repeatedly posted false claims about the results of the 2020 election, and played "an outsize role in amplifying content promoted by Tenet Media" according to a researchers.[21] CISA has reportedly changed its strategy towards educating the American public about electoral disinformation instead of asking social media companies to take down false information.[22]

In advance of the 2024 election, American intelligence assessments found that Iran had covertly supported college protests against the war in Gaza using social media posing as students and having operatives offer financial assistance.[3] Pro-Israel groups have also spent large sums of money to support pro-Israel candidates against candidates critical of the Israeli government.[23][24] Jordanian-American journalist Rami George Khouri wrote that "Such aggressive funding campaigns by AIPAC and other pro-Israeli forces may soon be perceived as another dimension of foreign interference in US elections, which has grown as a national concern since 2016."[25]

State-sponsored interference

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China

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This paragraph is an excerpt from Chinese interference in the 2024 United States elections.[edit]
China has interfered in the 2024 United States elections through propaganda and disinformation campaigns, primarily linked to its Spamouflage influence operation.[26] The efforts come amidst larger foreign interference in the 2024 United States elections.

Iran

[edit]
This paragraph is an excerpt from Iranian interference in the 2024 United States elections.[edit]
The Iranian government has interfered in the 2024 United States elections through social media efforts and hacking operations.[27][28] Iranian interference has come amidst larger foreign interference in the 2024 United States elections. The efforts were identified as an effort to tip the race against former president Donald Trump through propaganda and disinformation campaigns. However, Iranian efforts have also targeted Joe Biden and Kamala Harris with similar attacks, which The New York Times stated suggested "a wider goal of sowing internal discord and discrediting the democratic system in the United States more broadly in the eyes of the world."[29]

Russia

[edit]
This paragraph is an excerpt from Russian interference in the 2024 United States elections.[edit]
The Russian government has interfered in the 2024 United States elections through disinformation and propaganda campaigns[30] aimed at damaging Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and other Democrats while boosting the candidacy of Donald Trump and other candidates who support isolationism and undercutting support for Ukraine aid and NATO.[31][32][33][34][35] Russia's efforts represent the most active threat of foreign interference in the 2024 United States elections and follows Russia's previous pattern of spreading disinformation through fake social media accounts and right-wing YouTube channels[36][37] in order to divide American society and foster anti-Americanism.[38][39] On September 4, 2024, the U.S. Department of Justice indicted members of Tenet Media for having received $9.7 million as part of a covert Russian influence operation to co-opt American right-wing influencers to espouse pro-Russian content and conspiracy theories. Many of the followers of the related influencers were encouraged to steal ballots, intimidate voters, and remove or destroy ballot drop offs in the weeks leading up to the election.[40][41]

On 25 October 2024, U.S. intelligence officials confirmed that a viral video depicting the destruction of mail-in ballots in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, was a hoax orchestrated by Russia to support Donald Trump's campaign and undermine Kamala Harris. The video, which showed an unidentified man tearing up ballots, was identified as part of a broader Russian disinformation campaign aimed at sowing doubt about the integrity of the U.S. election.[42]

Suspected state-sponsored interference

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On August 28, 2024, a CNN investigation in collaboration with the Centre for Information Resilience found an orchestrated effort to influence voters through an orchestrated campaign "with hallmarks that could be consistent with a state-sponsored actor" highlighting 56 fake, pro-Trump accounts on X using stolen and altered images of "attractive young women" to espouse pro-Trump propaganda, conspiracy theories, and "anti-LGBTQ, anti-transgender, anti-vaccination, racist and xenophobic sentiments."[11]

See also

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Notes

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References

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  1. ^ a b c d e Klepper, David (September 3, 2024). "China-linked 'Spamouflage' network mimics Americans online to sway US political debate". The Associated Press. Archived from the original on September 4, 2024. Retrieved September 4, 2024.
  2. ^ a b c d Hsu, Tiffany; Myers, Steven Lee (April 1, 2024). "China's Advancing Efforts to Influence the U.S. Election Raise Alarms". The New York Times. Archived from the original on April 3, 2024. Retrieved April 3, 2024.
  3. ^ a b c d Myers, Steven Lee; Hsu, Tiffany; Fassihi, Farnaz (September 4, 2024). "Iran Emerges as a Top Disinformation Threat in U.S. Presidential Race". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on September 4, 2024.
  4. ^ a b Collier, Kevin (August 14, 2024). "Google says it observed Iran trying to hack the Trump and Biden-Harris campaigns". USA Today. Archived from the original on August 16, 2024. Retrieved August 16, 2024.
  5. ^ Morrison, Dan (August 12, 2024). "FBI probes Trump hack, Harris team says it was also targeted in failed attempt". USA Today. Archived from the original on August 15, 2024.
  6. ^ a b De Luce, Dan (February 26, 2024). "Russia's 2024 election interference has already begun". NBC News. Archived from the original on April 1, 2024. Retrieved April 3, 2024.
  7. ^ a b Barnes, Julian E.; Sanger, David E. (March 27, 2024). "Russia Amps Up Online Campaign Against Ukraine Before U.S. Elections". The New York Times. Archived from the original on April 2, 2024. Retrieved April 3, 2024.
  8. ^ a b c Barnes, Julian E.; Thrush, Glenn; Myers, Steven Lee (September 4, 2024). "U.S. Announces Plan to Counter Russian Influence Ahead of 2024 Election". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on September 11, 2024. Retrieved September 4, 2024.
  9. ^ Green, Justin (September 4, 2024). "2024's triple threats on election disinformation". Axios. Archived from the original on September 5, 2024. Retrieved September 5, 2024.
  10. ^ Zadrozny, Brandy (October 16, 2024). "The disinformation pipeline: How Russian propaganda reaches and influences the U.S." NBC News. Retrieved October 17, 2024. Russia is the most active foreign threat to the 2024 election, according to U.S. officials.
  11. ^ a b Polglase, Katie; Munsi, Pallabi; Arvanitidis, Barbara; Platt, Alex; Baron, Mark; Featherstone, Oscar (August 28, 2024). "'My identity is stolen': Photos of European influencers used to push pro-Trump propaganda on fake X accounts". CNN. Archived from the original on August 31, 2024. Retrieved September 4, 2024.
  12. ^ a b Chalfant, Morgan (March 6, 2024). "U.S. braces for foreign interference in 2024 election". Semafor. Archived from the original on March 11, 2024. Retrieved March 6, 2024.
  13. ^ Samuels, Brett (June 4, 2024). "Biden on foreign election meddling: 'All the bad guys are rooting for Trump'". The Hill. Archived from the original on August 27, 2024. Retrieved September 4, 2024.
  14. ^ Lyngaas, Sean; Lee, MJ (January 31, 2024). "Exclusive: Xi promised Biden China wouldn't interfere in 2024 election". CNN. Archived from the original on May 1, 2024. Retrieved September 4, 2024.
  15. ^ Bo Lillis, Katie (December 18, 2024). "China, Russia, Iran and Cuba all tried to meddle in 2022 US congressional elections, intelligence assessment finds". CNN. Archived from the original on August 18, 2024. Retrieved September 7, 2024.
  16. ^ Kirkpatrick, David D. (October 21, 2024). "The U.S. Spies Who Sound the Alarm About Election Interference". The New Yorker. Retrieved November 3, 2024.{{cite magazine}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  17. ^ Thrush, Glenn (September 12, 2024). "Justice Dept. Official Calls Election Meddling a 'Clear and Present Danger'". New York Times.
  18. ^ Reporter, Micah McCartney China News (October 8, 2024). "US detects China interference in 2024 election". Newsweek. Retrieved October 8, 2024.
  19. ^ Bond, Shannon (September 23, 2024). "U.S. officials say Russia is embracing AI for its election influence efforts". NPR. Archived from the original on November 7, 2024.
  20. ^ Menn, Joseph (September 23, 2024). "Russia, Iran use AI to boost anti-U.S. influence campaigns, officials say". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Archived from the original on September 24, 2024. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
  21. ^ a b c Myers, Steven Lee (October 23, 2024). "As Election Looms, Disinformation 'Has Never Been Worse'". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 3, 2024.
  22. ^ a b c d Meyer, Josh (November 1, 2024). "Fake video of Georgia voter fraud is Russian misinformation, US officials say". USA Today. Archived from the original on November 7, 2024. Retrieved November 3, 2024. Cite error: The named reference "Meyer 11012024" was defined multiple times with different content (see the help page).
  23. ^ "Pro-Israel US groups plan $100m effort to unseat progressives over Gaza". The Guardian. April 22, 2024. Archived from the original on September 27, 2024. Retrieved September 5, 2024.
  24. ^ "The pro-Israel groups planning to spend millions in US elections". The Guardian. April 22, 2024. Archived from the original on September 27, 2024. Retrieved September 5, 2024.
  25. ^ G Khouri, Rami (August 11, 2024). "AIPAC is growing desperate". Al Jazeera. Archived from the original on September 15, 2024. Retrieved September 5, 2024.
  26. ^ Klepper, David (September 3, 2024). "China-linked 'Spamouflage' network mimics Americans online to sway US political debate". Associated Press. Archived from the original on September 4, 2024. Retrieved September 4, 2024.
  27. ^ Harris, Shane; Nakashima, Ellen; Dawsey, Josh (August 13, 2024). "Suspected Iranian hacks are latest round of U.S. election interference". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Archived from the original on August 16, 2024. Retrieved August 16, 2024.
  28. ^ Stein, Perry (August 19, 2024). "FBI says it's confident Iran tried to hack Trump presidential campaign". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Archived from the original on September 4, 2024. Retrieved August 19, 2024.
  29. ^ Myers, Steven Lee; Hsu, Tiffany; Fassihi, Farnaz (September 4, 2024). "Iran Emerges as a Top Disinformation Threat in U.S. Presidential Race". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on September 4, 2024.
  30. ^ Myers, Steven Lee; Barnes, Julian E. (July 10, 2024). "U.S. and Allies Take Aim at Covert Russian Information Campaign". The New York Times.
  31. ^ De Luce, Dan (February 26, 2024). "Russia's 2024 election interference has already begun". NBC News. Archived from the original on April 1, 2024. Retrieved April 3, 2024.
  32. ^ Barnes, Julian E.; Sanger, David E. (March 27, 2024). "Russia Amps Up Online Campaign Against Ukraine Before U.S. Elections". The New York Times. Archived from the original on April 2, 2024. Retrieved April 3, 2024.
  33. ^ Barnes, Julian E.; Thrush, Glenn; Myers, Steven Lee (September 4, 2024). "U.S. Announces Plan to Counter Russian Influence Ahead of 2024 Election". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved September 4, 2024.
  34. ^ Roebuck, Jeremy (September 4, 2024). "Feds in Philly announce takedown of Russian-backed propaganda effort aimed at influencing U.S. presidential vote". The Philadelphia Inquirer. Retrieved September 5, 2024.
  35. ^ Lyngaas, Sean (September 17, 2024). "Microsoft says Russian operatives are ramping up attacks on Harris campaign with fake videos". The New York Times. Archived from the original on September 17, 2024.
  36. ^ De Vynck, Gerrit (September 6, 2024). "YouTube takes down right-wing channels linked to DOJ Russia indictments". The Washington Post. Retrieved September 6, 2024.
  37. ^ Zadrozny, Brandy (October 16, 2024). "The disinformation pipeline: How Russian propaganda reaches and influences the U.S." NBC News. Retrieved October 17, 2024. Russia is the most active foreign threat to the 2024 election, according to U.S. officials.
  38. ^ Riechmann, Deb (February 13, 2018). "Intelligence chiefs say they're seeing signs of Russian meddling in America's upcoming midterm elections". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Archived from the original on February 14, 2018. Retrieved February 14, 2018.
  39. ^ Sheth, Sonam (February 13, 2018). "Top intelligence chiefs issue a dire warning about the Kremlin's ongoing efforts to influence the US, defend against Trump's attacks on the FBI, and explain what happened with a shady Russian offering dirt on Trump". Business Insider. Retrieved February 14, 2018.
  40. ^ Lyngaas, Sean (September 5, 2024). "Russian trolling 2.0: How the Kremlin shifted tactics from its 2016 election strategy". CNN. Archived from the original on September 8, 2024. Retrieved September 11, 2024.
  41. ^ Myers, Steven Lee; Crowley, Michael (September 13, 2024). "U.S. Accuses Russian TV Network of Conducting Covert Intelligence Acts". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on September 16, 2024. Retrieved September 17, 2024.
  42. ^ Meyer, Josh (October 27, 2024). "US intelligence says Russia is behind video of ballots being destroyed in Pennsylvania". USA Today. Archived from the original on November 7, 2024. Retrieved October 28, 2024.
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