2024 United States presidential election in Maryland
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| Elections in Maryland |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Maryland is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Maryland voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Maryland has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
Mainly owing to the progressive and culturally Northeastern Baltimore and Washington metropolitan areas (where the vast majority of Marylanders live) and despite areas like Western Maryland and the Eastern Shore being rural, conservative, and still culturally Southern, Democrats have consistently won Maryland's electoral votes by double digits since 1992. Joe Biden from neighboring Delaware won Maryland by 33 points in 2020, with 52% of the White vote, becoming the first Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 to have a majority showing with said electoral demographic.[2] Maryland was expected to be a safe blue state in 2024.[3]
Harris won the state, but by a smaller margin than Biden, while Trump swept every county in the Eastern Shore of Maryland.
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden was running for reelection to a second term, and became the party's presumptive nominee, but withdrew from the race on July 21.[4][5] He then endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[6] The Republican nominee is former president Donald Trump.[7]
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]The Maryland Democratic primary was held on May 14, 2024,[8] alongside primaries in Nebraska and West Virginia.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 591,523 | 87.1% | 95 | 95 | |
| Uncommitted | 66,168 | 9.8% | |||
| Marianne Williamson | 12,935 | 1.9% | |||
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 8,188 | 1.2% | |||
| Total: | 678,814 | 100.0% | 95 | 23 | 118 |
Republican primary
[edit]The Maryland Republican primary was held on May 14, 2024,[8] alongside primaries in Nebraska and West Virginia.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 205,996 | 77.7% | 37 | 0 | 37 |
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 56,506 | 21.3% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Uncommitted | 2,607 | 1.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 265,109 | 100.0% | 37 | 0 | 37 |
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[10] | Solid D | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[11] | Solid D | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] | Safe D | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[13] | Safe D | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[14] | Solid D | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[15] | Solid D | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[16] | Safe D | June 12, 2024 |
| 538[17] | Solid D | June 11, 2024 |
| RCP[18] | Solid D | June 26, 2024 |
| NBC News[19] | Safe D | October 6, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | October 22–31, 2024 | 490 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 64% | 31% | 5% |
| ActiVote | October 6–30, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 64% | 37% | – |
| Braun Research[A] | October 17–22, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 61% | 33% | 7%[b] |
| 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 59% | 34% | 7%[c] | ||
| Emerson College | October 19–21, 2024 | 865 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 64% | 34% | 2% |
| 63% | 33% | 4%[d] | ||||
| Morning Consult | October 10–15, 2024 | 490 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 64% | 31% | 4% |
| ActiVote | September 8 – October 14, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 63% | 37% | – |
| Braun Research[A] | September 19–23, 2024 | 1,012 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 64% | 32% | 5%[e] |
| 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 62% | 32% | 6%[f] | ||
| Morning Consult | September 9–18, 2024 | 516 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 61% | 33% | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | September 16–17, 2024 | 543 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 64% | 33% | 3% |
| Emerson College | September 12–13, 2024 | 890 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 65% | 33% | 2% |
| 63% | 32% | 5% | ||||
| Morning Consult | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 516 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 62% | 34% | 4% |
| Gonzales Research | August 24–30, 2024 | 820 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 56% | 35% | 10% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[B] | August 14–20, 2024 | 700 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 64% | 32% | 4% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Jill Stein Green |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chism Strategies | October 28–30, 2024 | 510 (LV) | ± 4.34% | 56% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 10%[g] |
| YouGov[h] | October 23–27, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 61% | 34% | – | 0% | 2% | 5% |
| University of Maryland, Baltimore County | September 23–28, 2024 | 863 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 57% | 35% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 5%[i] |
| Braun Research[A] | September 19–23, 2024 | 1,012 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 63% | 31% | – | 1% | 1% | 5%[j] |
| 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 61% | 31% | – | 1% | 1% | 6%[k] | ||
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[B] | August 14–20, 2024 | 700 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 59% | 29% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 5% |
Hypothetical polling
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[20] | June 19–20, 2024 | 635 (V) | ± 3.9% | 56% | 30% | 15% |
| Emerson College[21] | May 6–8, 2024 | 1,115 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 56% | 35% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[22][C] | May 6–7, 2024 | 719 (V) | ± 3.7% | 60% | 32% | 8% |
| Emerson College[23] | February 12–13, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 55% | 32% | 13% |
| Gonzales Research[24] | January 23 – February 2, 2024 | 815 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 32% | 15% |
| Gonzales Research[25] | September 18–28, 2023 | 818 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 56% | 30% | 13% |
| Gonzales Research[26] | May 30 – June 6, 2023 | 841 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 52% | 35% | 13% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[21] | May 6–8, 2024 | 1,115 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 33% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 6% |
| Emerson College[23] | February 12−13, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 32% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 13% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzales Research[24] | January 23 – February 2, 2024 | 815 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 28% | 18% | 9% |
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzales Research[24] | January 23 – February 2, 2024 | 815 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 36% | 14% |
| Gonzales Research[25] | September 18–28, 2023 | 818 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 36% | 11% |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzales Research[25] | September 18–28, 2023 | 818 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 56% | 35% | 9% |
| Gonzales Research[26] | May 30 – June 6, 2023 | 841 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 51% | 37% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Vivek Ramaswamy
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Vivek Ramaswamy Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzales Research[25] | September 18–28, 2023 | 818 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 56% | 29% | 15% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | |||||
| Republican | |||||
| Libertarian | |||||
| Green | |||||
| Independent |
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| Write-in | |||||
| Total votes | |||||
See also
[edit]- 2024 Maryland elections
- United States presidential elections in Maryland
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ a b c d e f g h Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%; "Undecided" with 2%
- ^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Other" with <0.5%
- ^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 5%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Other" with <0.5%
- ^ "Someone else" with 4%
- ^ Poll sponsored by the University of Maryland, College Park.
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
- ^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Other" with <0.5%
- ^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 5%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Other" with <0.5%
Partisan clients
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by The Washington Post and the University of Maryland, College Park
- ^ a b Poll commissioned by AARP
- ^ This poll was commissioned by EMILY's List, which supports Biden.
References
[edit]- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
- ^ "Maryland Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- ^ Levine, Sam; Gambino, Lauren (July 22, 2024). "Joe Biden withdraws from presidential race after weeks of pressure to quit". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
- ^ "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
- ^ Gold, Michael; Nehamas, Nicholas (March 13, 2024). "Donald Trump and Joe Biden Clinch Their Party Nominations". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on March 13, 2024. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
- ^ a b "Legislation - HB0535". Maryland General Assembly. Archived from the original on April 24, 2023. Retrieved April 24, 2023.
- ^ "Maryland Presidential Primary Election Results 2024". NBC News. May 21, 2024. Retrieved June 17, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
- ^ "Alsobrooks leads Hogan by 11". Public Policy Polling. June 24, 2024.
- ^ a b Mumford, Camille (May 9, 2024). "Maryland 2024 Poll: Alsobrooks 42%, Trone 41%". Emerson Polling.
- ^ "Public Policy Polling (D)" (PDF).
- ^ a b Mumford, Camille (February 15, 2024). "Maryland 2024 Poll: Former Gov. Larry Hogan Starts Strong in Election for Open Senate Seat". Emerson Polling.
- ^ a b c "Gonzales Research" (PDF).
- ^ a b c d "Gonzales Research" (PDF).
- ^ a b Sears, Bryan P. (June 14, 2023). "Poll: Biden's independent voter trouble and a hypothetical contest against Wes Moore".
- ^ "Unofficial 2024 Presidential General Election Results for President and Vice President of the United States". elections.maryland.gov. Maryland State Board of Elections. Retrieved October 24, 2024.
External links
[edit]
Media related to United States presidential election in Maryland, 2024 at Wikimedia Commons