2024 Missouri gubernatorial election
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| Elections in Missouri |
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The 2024 Missouri gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of Missouri, concurrently with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate, the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican governor Mike Parson is term-limited and cannot seek re-election to a second full term in office due to having served more than two years of predecessor Eric Greitens' unexpired term following his resignation in June 2018. Primary elections took place on August 6, 2024.[1] Mike Kehoe, the incumbent lieutenant governor, won the Republican nomination, while Crystal Quade, the Minority Leader of the Missouri House of Representatives, won the Democratic nomination.[2] Kehoe defeated Quade in the general election with 59.2 percent of the vote.[3]
A former bellwether state, Missouri has politically trended rightward in recent years and is today a Republican stronghold at both the federal and state levels. The last Democrat to hold the office of governor in Missouri was Jay Nixon, who comfortably won re-election in 2012. In 2020, Parson won by 16.41%, the first time a Republican gubernatorial candidate won by a double-digit margin since John Ashcroft's landslide re-election in 1988. Major news organizations predicted that the state would elect another Republican governor in 2024.[4]
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Mike Kehoe, Lieutenant Governor of Missouri (2018–present)[5]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Jay Ashcroft, Missouri Secretary of State (2017–present) and son of former governor John Ashcroft[6]
- Bill Eigel, state senator from the 23rd district (2017–present)[7]
- Darren Grant[8]
- Jeremy Gundel, write-in candidate for lieutenant governor in 2020[8]
- Darrell McClanahan, stay-at-home parent, honorary KKK member, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[9]
- Robert Olson, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[8]
- Amber Thomsen[8]
- Chris Wright, businessman and former police officer[8]
Endorsements
[edit]Jay Ashcroft
- Executive Branch officials
- Donald Trump, former president of the United States (co-endorsement with Eigel and Kehoe)[10]
- Statewide officials
- Organizations
- Missouri Right to Life[12]
Bill Eigel
- Executive Branch officials
- Donald Trump, former president of the United States (co-endorsement with Ashcroft and Kehoe)[10]
- U.S. representatives
- Matt Gaetz, U.S. representatives from Florida's 1st congressional district[13]
Mike Kehoe
- Executive Branch officials
- Donald Trump, former president of the United States (co-endorsement with Ashcroft and Eigel)[10]
- Statewide officials
- Mike Parson, incumbent governor of Missouri[14]
- Labor unions
- Fire Fighter Association of Missouri[15]
- Missouri Fraternal Order of Police[16]
- Organizations
- American Council of Engineering Companies of Missouri[17]
- Associated General Contractors of Missouri[18]
- Missouri Automobile Dealers Association[18]
- Missouri Cattlemen Association[19]
- Missouri Chamber of Commerce[20]
- Missouri Corn Growers Association[18]
- Missouri Farm Bureau[21]
- Missouri Forest Products Association[22]
- Missouri Hospital Association[23]
- Missouri Soybean Association[19]
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Jay Ashcroft |
Bill Eigel |
Mike Kehoe |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Battleground Connect[A] | July 30–31, 2024 | 896 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 26% | 17% | 26% | 16%[b] | 15% |
| Remington Research Group[A] | July 22–24, 2024 | 500 (LV) | – | 29% | 18% | 29% | – | 24% |
| 29% | 13% | 18% | – | 40% | ||||
| ARW Strategies (R) | June 27–30, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 19% | 19% | 24% | – | 38% |
| Remington Research (R)[A] | June 19–20, 2024 | 701 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 31% | 9% | 29% | – | 31% |
| Emerson College | June 17–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 23% | 6% | 20% | 5%[c] | 46% |
| American Viewpoint[B] | June 2–4, 2024 | 800 (LV) | - | 27% | 16% | 27% | - | 30% |
| Peak Insights | May 15–18, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 22% | 14% | 20% | - | 42% |
| American Viewpoint[B] | May 13–15, 2024 | 600 (LV) | - | 33% | 12% | 23% | - | 32% |
| Tyson Group[C] | April 23–26, 2024 | 504 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 36% | 3% | 11% | 9%[d] | 40% |
| YouGov/Saint Louis University | February 14–26, 2024 | 414 (LV) | ± 5.54% | 28% | 8% | 10% | 4%[e] | 49% |
| Remington Research (R)[A] | February 14–15, 2024 | 706 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 35% | 5% | 22% | – | 38% |
| ARW Strategies (R) | February 5–7, 2024 | 611 (V) | ± 3.96% | 36% | 13% | 13% | – | 38% |
| Remington Research (R)[A] | January 18–19, 2024 | 806 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 34% | 4% | 20% | – | 42% |
| Show Me Victories (D) | October 26–31, 2023 | 407 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 18% | 6% | 19% | – | 49% |
| Remington Research (R)[A] | September 27–28, 2023 | 714 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 32% | 5% | 15% | – | 48% |
| Remington Research (R)[A] | July 5–7, 2023 | 706 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 34% | 4% | 14% | – | 38% |
| Remington Research (R)[A] | November 15–16, 2022 | 940 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 4% | 10% | – | 42% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[D] | March 8–10, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 54% | – | 19% | 8% | 19% |
Debates
[edit]| Dates | Location | Ashcroft | Eigel | Kehoe | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 25, 2024 | St. Louis | Participant | Participant | Absent | YouTube |
Results
[edit]
Kehoe
- >60%
- 50–60%
- 40–50%
- 30–40%
Eigel
- >50%
- 40–50%
- 30–40%
Ashcroft
- 30–40%
Kehoe secured a modest victory, carrying 88 counties, as well as the city of St. Louis. He performed the best in Shelby County, while Eigel, the runner-up, earned his best result in Grundy County. Finally, Ashcroft narrowly surpassed Kehoe in Greene County.[24]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mike Kehoe | 274,840 | 39.4 | |
| Republican | Bill Eigel | 227,012 | 32.6 | |
| Republican | Jay Ashcroft | 162,086 | 23.2 | |
| Republican | Amber Thomsen | 10,627 | 1.5 | |
| Republican | Chris Wright | 9,358 | 1.3 | |
| Republican | Darrell McClanahan | 5,637 | 0.8 | |
| Republican | Robert Olson | 2,975 | 0.4 | |
| Republican | Jeremy Gundel | 2,946 | 0.4 | |
| Republican | Darren Grant | 1,866 | 0.3 | |
| Total votes | 697,347 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Crystal Quade, Minority Leader of the Missouri House of Representatives (2019–present) from the 132nd district (2017–present)[26]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Sheryl Gladney, customer service agent[8]
- Mike Hamra, restaurant conglomerate owner[27]
- Hollis Laster[8]
- Eric Morrison, pastor and candidate for governor in 2016 and 2020[8]
Disqualified
[edit]- Sarah Unsicker, state representative from the 83rd district[28]
Endorsements
[edit]Mike Hamra
- Newspapers
Crystal Quade
- Statewide officials
- Bob Holden, former governor of Missouri (2001–2005)[30]
- Jason Kander, former Missouri secretary of state (2013–2017)[30]
- State legislators
- 40 state legislators[31]
- Organizations
- Planned Parenthood Great Plains Votes[30]
- National Women's Political Caucus[32]
- Sierra Club of Missouri[33]
- Labor unions
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Sheryl Gladney |
Mike Hamra |
Crystal Quade |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remington Research Group | July 10-22, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 4% | 23% | 21% | 9% | 43% |
| YouGov/Saint Louis University | February 14–26, 2024 | 396 (LV) | ± 5.57% | 4% | 5% | 21% | 4% | 66% |
| Show Me Victories (D) | October 26–31, 2023 | 407 (RV) | ± 4.9% | – | 2% | 39% | – | 58% |
Results
[edit]
Quade
- 60–70%
- 50–60%
- 40–50%
- 30–40%
Hamra
- 50-60%
- 40–50%
- 30–40%
- 20–30%
Tie
- 20–30%
Quade led the race, winning slightly more than half of the votes, as well as 90 county equivalents out of 115.[f] She performed the best in Greene County, where the city of Springfield is located. Conversely, Hamra recorded his best result in Harrison County, with some more than 50% of the vote. Morrison failed to win a single county, but still managed to tie Pemiscot County, earning as many votes there as Hamra did.[37]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Crystal Quade | 189,822 | 50.2 | |
| Democratic | Mike Hamra | 119,702 | 31.7 | |
| Democratic | Eric Morrison | 36,985 | 9.8 | |
| Democratic | Sheryl Gladney | 25,287 | 6.7 | |
| Democratic | Hollis Laster | 5,973 | 1.6 | |
| Total votes | 377,769 | 100.0 | ||
Third-party and independent candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Paul Lehman (Green), farmer and nominee for secretary of state in 2020[8]
- Bill Slantz (Libertarian), former chair of the Missouri Libertarian Party, perennial candidate, and nominee for governor in 2020[8]
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[38] | Solid R | June 13, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[39] | Solid R | July 14, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[40] | Safe R | June 4, 2024 |
| RCP[41] | Likely R | July 13, 2024 |
| Elections Daily[42] | Safe R | July 12, 2023 |
| CNalysis[43] | Solid R | August 17, 2024 |
Post-primary endorsements
[edit]Crystal Quade (D)
- Newspapers
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Mike Kehoe (R) |
Crystal Quade (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | November 2–3, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 52% | 38% | 3% | 7% |
| Remington Research Group[A] | October 28–29, 2024 | 721 (LV) | – | 51% | 40% | 1%[g] | 8% |
| ActiVote | October 11–27, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 58% | 42% | – | – |
| Remington Research Group[A] | October 2–3, 2024 | 753 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 51% | 41% | 1%[h] | 7% |
| ActiVote | September 3 – October 1, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 60% | 40% | – | – |
| Emerson College[E] | September 12–13, 2024 | 850 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 52% | 36% | 1%[i] | 11% |
| Remington Research Group[A] | September 4–5, 2024 | 940 (LV) | – | 52% | 34% | – | 14% |
| YouGov/Saint Louis University | August 8–16, 2024 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.79% | 51% | 41% | 3%[j] | 6% |
| Show Me Victories (D) | October 26–31, 2023 | 407 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 38% | 33% | – | 29% |
Hypothetical polling
- Jay Ashcroft vs. Crystal Quade
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Jay Ashcroft (R) |
Crystal Quade (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remington Research (R)[A] | March 6–8, 2024 | 713 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 53% | 36% | – | 11% |
| Show Me Victories (D) | October 26–31, 2023 | 407 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 39% | 34% | – | 27% |
- Bill Eigel vs. Crystal Quade
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Bill Eigel (R) |
Crystal Quade (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Show Me Victories (D) | October 26–31, 2023 | 407 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 33% | 34% | – | 33% |
- Mike Kehoe vs. Mike Hamra
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Mike Kehoe (R) |
Mike Hamra (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Show Me Victories (D) | October 26–31, 2023 | 407 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 37% | 27% | – | 36% |
- Jay Ashcroft vs. Mike Hamra
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Ashcroft (R) |
Mike Hamra (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Show Me Victories (D) | October 26–31, 2023 | 407 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 39% | 29% | – | 32% |
- Bill Eigel vs. Mike Hamra
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Bill Eigel (R) |
Mike Hamra (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Show Me Victories (D) | October 26–31, 2023 | 407 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 33% | 30% | – | 37% |
Debate
[edit]| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Democratic | Libertarian | Green |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
||||||||
| Kehoe | Quade | Slantz | Lehmann | |||||
| 1 | Sep. 20, 2024 | Missouri Press Association | David Lieb | YouTube | P | P | P | P |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mike Kehoe | 1,738,063 | 59.12 | +2.01 | |
| Democratic | Crystal Quade | 1,136,999 | 38.68 | −2.01 | |
| Libertarian | Bill Slantz | 40,627 | 1.38 | −0.25 | |
| Green | Paul Lehmann | 22,136 | 0.75 | +0.18 | |
| Write-in | 1,891 | 0.06 | n/a | ||
| Total votes | 2,939,716 | 100.00 | |||
Notes
[edit]- ^ a b c d e f g Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Darrell McClanahan III with 7%; Amber Thomsen with 4%; Jeremy Gundel with 2%; Robert Olson, Chris Wright, and Darren Grant with 1%
- ^ Robert Olson with 2%; Darrell McClanahan, Amber Thomsen and Chris Wright with 1%; Darren Grant and Jeremy Gundel with 0%
- ^ Amber Thomsen with 3%; Darren Grant and Robert Olsen with 2%; Jeremy Grundel and Chris Wright with 1%
- ^ Chris Wright with 3%; "Other" with 1%
- ^ Missouri is made up of 114 counties and the independent city of St. Louis
- ^ Slantz (L) with 1%
- ^ Slantz (L) with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Other" with 3%
- Partisan clients
References
[edit]- ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
- ^ "Missouri Governor Primary Election Results". The New York Times. August 6, 2024. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved October 27, 2024.
- ^ "Missouri Governor Election Results 2024: Quade vs. Kehoe". The New York Times. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 7, 2024.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
- ^ Hancock, Jason (March 22, 2021). "Mike Kehoe passes on 2022 Senate run to focus on 2024 Missouri governor's race". Missouri Independent. Retrieved September 7, 2021.
- ^ Shorman, Jonathan (April 6, 2023). "Missouri's top election official Jay Ashcroft launches Republican campaign for governor". The Kansas City Star.
- ^ Singer, Jeff (August 17, 2023). "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 8/17". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 17, 2023.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j "UNOFFICIAL Candidate Filing List". Missouri Secretary of State. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
- ^ Krull, Ryan (February 29, 2024). "Missouri GOP Candidate for Governor Was Only 'Honorary' KKK Member". Riverfront Times. Retrieved February 29, 2024.
- ^ a b c Bayless, Kacen (July 27, 2024). "Donald Trump hedges endorsement for Missouri governor, backs three major GOP candidates". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved July 28, 2024.
- ^ "Kehoe in fundraising lead in Missouri GOP governor's race". Fox2Now. June 25, 2024. Retrieved July 24, 2024.
- ^ "Gubernatorial hopeful Jay Ashcroft lands key endorsement from Missouri Right to Life". www.stltoday.com. July 18, 2023. Retrieved October 22, 2023.
- ^ "Missouri Republican slammed for 'racist bigotry' in anti-immigrant campaign ad". The Independent. July 25, 2024. Retrieved July 25, 2024.
- ^ Baechle, Shea (July 18, 2024). "Gov. Parson officially endorses Mike Kehoe for Governor". KRCG. Retrieved July 19, 2024.
- ^ Hays, Brady (April 5, 2022). "Fire Fighter Association of Missouri endorses Kehoe for governor". The Missouri Times. Retrieved April 5, 2022.
- ^ "Kehoe backed by Missouri Fraternal Order of Police in gubernatorial bid". The Missouri Times. February 28, 2022. Retrieved April 4, 2022.
- ^ Turner, Kelton (May 19, 2022). "Kehoe backed by American Council of Engineering Companies of Missouri". Retrieved May 25, 2023.
- ^ a b c "Kehoe Gains 12th Endorsement in Bid for Missouri Governor in '24". Northwest MO Info. November 28, 2022. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
- ^ a b Brady, Hays (March 22, 2022). "Missouri Agribusiness Association endorses Kehoe for governor". The Missouri Times. Retrieved April 4, 2022.
- ^ "Mike Kehoe gains gubernatorial endorsement from Missouri Chamber of Commerce". Springfield News-Leader. Archived from the original on September 13, 2023. Retrieved September 13, 2023.
- ^ "Missouri Farm Bureau PAC endorses Mike Kehoe for Governor in 2024".
- ^ McFarland, Matthew (August 26, 2022). "Missouri Forest Products Association endorses Kehoe for 2024 Governor race". The Missouri Times. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
- ^ Lamons, Jarett (June 19, 2024). "Missouri Hospital Association endorses Mike Kehoe". The Missouri Times. Retrieved June 29, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Missouri Election Results". AP News. Retrieved August 24, 2024.
- ^ a b "Missouri Governor Primary Election Results 2024". The New York Times. August 6, 2024. Retrieved August 7, 2024.
- ^ Sellem, Lucas (July 9, 2023). "Rep. Crystal Quade announces run for MO governor". KMOV. Retrieved July 9, 2023.
- ^ Keller, Rudi (October 27, 2023). "Springfield businessman Mike Hamra joins Democratic race for Missouri governor". Missouri Independent. Retrieved October 27, 2023.
- ^ Ballentine, Summer (February 27, 2024). "Exiled Missouri lawmaker blocked from running for governor as a Democrat". The Associated Press. Retrieved February 29, 2024.
- ^ "Editorial: Our endorsements in Missouri's GOP and Democratic gubernatorial primaries". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. August 1, 2024. Retrieved August 1, 2024.
- ^ a b c "Crystal Quade gains endorsement from Planned Parenthood in 2024 gubernatorial bid". Springfield News-Leader. Retrieved December 18, 2023.
- ^ Sundrup, Jack (October 11, 2023). "Missouri Democrat Crystal Quade could face intraparty competition in bid for governor". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved October 12, 2023.
- ^ "Endorsed Candidates". National Women's Political Caucus. Retrieved September 29, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Missouri Sierra Club Election Endorsements | Sierra Club". www.sierraclub.org. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
- ^ Rowden, Tim (November 27, 2023). "MLabor lining up behind Crystal Quade in her bid for governor". The Labor Tribune. Retrieved July 28, 2024.
- ^ Alpert, Lynn (September 25, 2023). "Missouri AFL-CIO endorses Crystal Quade for governor". The Labor Tribune. Retrieved September 30, 2023.
- ^ Rowden, Tim (November 27, 2023). "MLabor lining up behind Crystal Quade in her bid for governor". The Labor Tribune. Retrieved July 28, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Missouri Election Results". AP News. Retrieved August 24, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
- ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Governor Races". www.realclearpolling.com. Retrieved July 16, 2024.
- ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. July 22, 2023. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
- ^ "Governor Forecasts". CNalysis. Retrieved August 17, 2024.
- ^ "The Kansas City Star's endorsement in the Nov. 5 election for Missouri governor". The Kansas City Star. October 21, 2024. Retrieved October 24, 2024.
External links
[edit]- Official campaign websites