2024 United States presidential election in Missouri
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| Elections in Missouri |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Missouri took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Missouri voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Missouri has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
As he did in the previous two presidential elections, Republican Donald Trump easily won Missouri in 2024, this time by an 18.4% margin. Prior to the election, all major news organizations considered Missouri a state Trump would win, or a red state.[2] Formerly a bellwether state, Missouri has trended towards the Republican Party in recent years and since the late 2010s has been considered a GOP stronghold at both the federal and state levels.
Democrat Kamala Harris won the same jurisdictions that Joe Biden did in 2020, as did Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Obama in 2012: Jackson County, home to Kansas City; Boone County, home to Columbia; the independent city of St. Louis; and St. Louis County, which contains many of St. Louis's closest suburbs.
Primary elections
[edit]Republican caucuses
[edit]The Missouri Republican caucuses was held on March 2, 2024, alongside the Republican caucuses in Idaho and Michigan.
| Candidate | State delegates | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 924 | 100.00 | 54 | 0 | 54 |
| Nikki Haley | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Stuckenberg | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 924 | 100 | 54 | 0 | 54 |
Democratic primary
[edit]The Missouri Democratic primary was held on March 23, 2024, alongside the Democratic primary in Louisiana.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 16,295 | 85.3% | 61 | ||
| Uncommitted | 2,229 | 11.7% | 3 | ||
| Marianne Williamson | 298 | 1.6% | |||
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 178 | 0.9% | |||
| Stephen Lyons (withdrawn) | 40 | 0.2% | |||
| Jason Palmer | 36 | 0.2% | |||
| Armando Perez-Serrato | 24 | 0.1% | |||
| Total: | 19,100 | 100.0% | 64 | 6 | 70 |
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[6] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[7] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] | Safe R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[9] | Safe R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[10] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[11] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[12] | Safe R | June 12, 2024 |
| 538[13] | Solid R | October 18, 2024 |
| RCP[14] | Likely R | June 26, 2024 |
| NBC News[15] | Safe R | October 6, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co.[16] | November 2–3, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 54% | 39% | 7% |
| ActiVote[17] | October 6–27, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 58% | 42% | – |
| ActiVote[18] | September 8 – October 10, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 57% | 43% | – |
| Emerson College[19] | September 12–13, 2024 | 850 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 53% | 43% | 4%[b] |
| 55%[c] | 43% | 2%[b] | ||||
| Change Research (D)[20] | September 11–13, 2024 | 1,237 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 50% | 41% | 9% |
| GQR (D)[21] | September 6–12, 2024 | 645 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 55% | 44% | 1% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||
| Democratic National Convention | ||||||
| ActiVote[22] | July 25 – August 22, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 59% | 41% | – |
| YouGov/Saint Louis University[23] | August 8–16, 2024 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 54% | 41% | 5%[d] |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remington Research Group (R)/Missouri Scout[24] | October 28–29, 2024 | 721 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 54% | 40% | – | 1% | 1% | 4% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[25] | June 17–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 40% | 7% |
| John Zogby Strategies[26][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 509 (LV) | – | 49% | 43% | 8% |
| Emerson College[27] | January 23–28, 2024 | 1,830 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 49% | 32% | 19% |
| Remington Research Group (R)/Missouri Scout[28] | October 10–11, 2023 | 806 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 52% | 39% | 9% |
| SurveyUSA[29] | October 27 – November 1, 2022 | 991 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 52% | 34% | 14% |
| Emerson College[30] | October 26–28, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 37% | 9% |
| Emerson College[31] | September 23–27, 2022 | 1,160 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 51% | 37% | 12% |
| SurveyUSA[32] | September 14–18, 2022 | 830 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 52% | 35% | 13% |
| SurveyUSA[33] | July 24–27, 2022 | 1,981 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 51% | 35% | 14% |
| SurveyUSA[34] | May 11–15, 2022 | 1,412 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 35% | 15% |
| Remington Research Group (R)/Missouri Scout[35] | September 18–20, 2021 | 1,014 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 55% | 36% | 9% |
| Remington Research Group (R)/Missouri Scout[36] | April 21–22, 2021 | 933 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 38% | 9% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[25] | June 17–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 35% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[26][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 509 (LV) | – | 45% | 42% | 13% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[26][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 509 (LV) | – | 51% | 36% | 13% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 1,739,020 | 58.37 | +1.57 | ||
| Democratic | 1,190,806 | 39.97 | −1.44 | ||
| Libertarian | 23,754 | 0.80 | −0.56 | ||
| Green | 16,956 | 0.57 | +0.30 | ||
| Write-in | 8,515 | 0.29 | n/a | ||
| Total votes | 2,979,051 | 100.00 | |||
Analysis
[edit]Missouri is a Midwestern state with heavy Southern cultural influence, having been a Southern border state and contested between the Union and Confederacy during the Civil War. A nigh-infallible bellwether state for the bulk of the 20th century well into the 2000s (backing the winner of all but one presidential election for a century, from 1904 to 2004, the exception being 1956 by just 0.22% and less than 4,000 votes), Missouri has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000. It is widely understood to have lost its bellwether status when Democrat Barack Obama of neighboring Illinois failed to carry the state in either of his presidential victories, followed by Republican Donald Trump carrying it by more than 15% in all three of his election bids.
As half the state is located in the conservative Bible Belt, with the southern portion of the state being part of the Upland South, Missouri has drifted away from being a political bellwether towards the Republican Party in the 21st century and is now a strongly red state, with Republicans occupying every statewide office since 2023. Democratic strength in Missouri is nowadays largely limited to the Kansas City and St. Louis areas, as well as the college town of Columbia.
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Missouri
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]Partisan clients
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
References
[edit]- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved December 18, 2023.
- ^ "AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Missouri's GOP caucuses". ABC News. Retrieved March 2, 2024.[failed verification]
- ^ "Missouri primary results". Associated Press. Retrieved March 2, 2024.
- ^ "Missouri Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved March 22, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 19, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
- ^ Canseco, Mario (November 4, 2024). "Battleground States Remain Closely Contested in U.S. Race". Research Co.
- ^ Allis, Victor (October 28, 2024). "Trump Leads in Missouri". ActiVote. Retrieved October 28, 2024.
- ^ Allis, Victor (October 11, 2024). "Trump Leads in Missouri". ActiVote.
- ^ "Missouri September 2024 Poll: Republican Candidates Lead in President, Governor, Senate Races". Emerson College Polling. September 17, 2024.
- ^ Clermont, Stephen (September 17, 2024). "Missouri Memo - September 17, 2024" (PDF). Change Research.
- ^ Lemon, Jason (September 13, 2024). "Lucas Kunce Within Striking Distance of Josh Hawley—Internal Poll". Newsweek.
- ^ Allis, Victor (August 22, 2024). "Trump Leads with Expected Margin in Missouri". ActiVote. Retrieved August 23, 2024.
- ^ Rogers, Steven; Burle, Ashley; Ritter, Gary; Warren, Kenneth (August 29, 2024). "Top Line Results for August 2024 SLU/YouGov Poll" (PDF). Saint Louis University.
- ^ "MOScout Weekender: Trump up 14 in MO - Hallway Picks Their Upset Guesses - Who Won the Week and more..." Missouri Scout. November 2, 2024.
- ^ a b Mumford, Camille (June 21, 2024). "Missouri 2024 Poll: Ashcroft 23%, Kehoe 20% Lead Republican Primary for Governor; 46% undecided". Emerson Polling.
- ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (February 2, 2024). "Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, and South Dakota 2024 Polls: Biden Underperforming Among Women and Young Voters". Emerson Polling.
- ^ "October 2023 - Missouri Statewide" (PDF). Missouri Scout. October 12, 2023.
- ^ "Results of SurveyUSA News Poll #26640". SurveyUSA. November 2, 2022.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (November 1, 2022). "Missouri 2022: Republican Eric Schmitt Maintains Double Digit Lead Over Democrat Trudy Busch Valentine". Emerson Polling.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (September 29, 2022). "Missouri 2022: Republican Eric Schmitt With Double Digit Lead Over Democrat Trudy Busch Valentine". Emerson Polling.
- ^ "Show Me Deja Vu All Over Again (Again) As Trump/Biden Do-Over Sees Same Result In Missouri – Largely Unchanged Since May". SurveyUSA. September 19, 2022.
- ^ "Show Me Deja Vu All Over Again As Trump/Biden Do-Over Sees Same Result In Missouri – Unchanged, as are Approval Ratings, Since May". SurveyUSA. July 28, 2022.
- ^ Usery, Stephanie; Ruch, Amber (May 20, 2022). "Exclusive poll shows who Missourians would vote for in 2024 Trump vs. Biden rematch". First Alert 4.
- ^ "MISSOURI 2022 General Election - September 2021" (PDF). Missouri Scout. September 20, 2021.
- ^ "April 2021 - Missouri 2022 General Election Survey" (PDF). Missouri Scout. April 22, 2021.
- ^ "Certification of Candidates and Party Emblems" (PDF). MO SOS. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
