2024 United States presidential election in Indiana
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| Elections in Indiana |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Indiana took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Indiana voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Indiana has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
Indiana has a reputation for being the most conservative state in the Great Lakes region, with the southern region of the state having cultural influence from the Upper South and Bible Belt. The last Democrat to carry the state at the presidential level was Barack Obama of neighboring Illinois, who narrowly won the state in 2008. In addition, Indiana was decided by single digits in the elections of 1976, 1992, and 1996, all three of which consisted of the state being won by a Republican as a former Southern governor won under the Democratic banner.
Republican Donald Trump won Indiana comfortably in the past two presidential election cycles, with former Governor of Indiana Mike Pence on the ticket, by 19% in 2016 and by 16% in 2020.[2]
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]The 2024 Indiana Democratic presidential primary was held on May 7, 2024. 88 delegates, 79 pledged and 9 superdelegates, to the Democratic National Convention will be allocated to presidential candidates.[3]
In Indiana, candidates have to gather at least 500 signatures from each congressional district, for a total of 4,500 signatures, to make the primary ballot.[4] Incumbent President Joe Biden was the only candidate that met the requirements.[5] Uncommitted will not appear on the ballot and write-in votes are not allowed.[6]
With no opposition, President Biden won 100% of the primary vote.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Joe Biden | 178,074 | 100.0% | 79 | ||
| Total: | 178,074 | 100.0% | 79 | 79 | |
Republican primary
[edit]The Indiana Republican primary was held on May 7, 2024. Nikki Haley, who had already dropped out, and Donald Trump appeared on the ballot.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 461,678 | 78.3% | 58 | ||
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 128,170 | 21.7% | |||
| Total: | 589,848 | 100.0% | 58 | 58 | |
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[9] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[10] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] | Safe R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[12] | Safe R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[13] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[14] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[15] | Safe R | June 12, 2024 |
| 538[16] | Solid R | September 23, 2024 |
| RCP[17] | Solid R | June 26, 2024 |
| NBC News[18] | Safe R | October 6, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote[19] | October 3–28, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 58% | 42% | – |
| ActiVote[20] | August 28 – September 30, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 57% | 43% | – |
| ARW Strategies[21][A] | September 23–25, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 55% | 39% | 6% |
| Emerson College[22] | September 12–13, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 57% | 40% | 3%[b] |
| 58%[c] | 41% | 1%[b] | ||||
| Lake Research Partners (D)[23][B] | August 26 – September 2, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 42% | 6% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[24][C] | April 13–21, 2024 | 418 (LV) | – | 47% | 43% | 10% |
| Emerson College[25] | March 2–5, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 55% | 34% | 11% |
| Emerson College[26] | October 1–4, 2023 | 462 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 48% | 29% | 24% |
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[24][C] | April 13–21, 2024 | 418 (LV) | – | 44% | 41% | 15% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[24][C] | April 13–21, 2024 | 418 (LV) | – | 47% | 38% | 15% |
Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[25] | March 2–5, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 29% | 26% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 1,715,058 | 59% | |||
| Democratic | 1,159,785 | 40% | |||
| We the People |
|
29,094 | 1% | ||
| Libertarian | 20,504 | 1% | |||
| Write-in | 1,285 | 0.28% | |||
| Total votes | 2,924,441 | 100.00% | |||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
[edit]- Tippecanoe (largest city: Lafayette)
Notes
[edit]- Partisan clients
- ^ Poll sponsored by Indy Politics
- ^ Poll sponsored by the campaign of Destiny Wells, 2024 Democratic nominee for attorney general
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Indiana
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
References
[edit]- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
- ^ "Indiana Democratic Delegation 2024". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved March 1, 2024.
- ^ "Ballot access for presidential candidates". Ballotpedia. Retrieved January 20, 2024.
- ^ "Candidate List - Abbreviated" (PDF). Indiana Secretary of State. Retrieved March 1, 2024.
- ^ "Indiana 2024 Delegate Selection Plan with DNC Edits" (PDF). Indiana Democratic Party. January 9, 2024. Retrieved March 1, 2024.
No provision is provided under Indiana state law for primary voters to express an uncommitted preference on the ballot. Write-in presidential candidates are permitted.
- ^ "Indiana Presidential Primary Election Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved May 7, 2024.
- ^ "Indiana Presidential Primary Election Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved May 7, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved September 29, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
- ^ Allis, Victor (October 29, 2024). "Trump Leads Comfortably in Indiana". ActiVote.
- ^ Allis, Victor (October 1, 2024). "Trump Leads Comfortably in Indiana". ActiVote.
- ^ Hakim-Shabazz, Abdul (September 29, 2024). "GOP Leads In Statewide Polling, But Braun's is the Smallest". Indy Politics.
- ^ "Indiana September 2024 Poll: Trump 57%, Harris 40%". Emerson College Polling. September 17, 2024.
- ^ Carden, Dan (September 12, 2024). "Poll finds Indiana attorney general, governor races are close". The Times of Northwest Indiana.
- ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
- ^ a b Mumford, Camille (March 7, 2024). "Indiana 2024 Poll: Sen. Braun Leads GOP Primary for Governor at 34%, 43% undecided". Emerson Polling.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (October 13, 2023). "Indiana 2024: Plurality of Voters Undecided in U.S. Senate Election to Replace Sen. Braun". Emerson Polling.
- ^ "Candidate List - Abbreviated" (PDF). INSOS. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
