2024 United States presidential election in Utah
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| Elections in Utah |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Utah took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Utah voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Utah has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1] Donald Trump was projected to win the state.
A Mountain West state, Utah has not been won by a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon B. Johnson in his 1964 landslide and is a strongly red state, a trait vastly owed to the state's conservative Mormon majority. Granted that the GOP margin of victory has been lower than usual in the past two presidential elections due to a considerable share of third-party votes statewide and growing Democratic trends in Salt Lake and Summit Counties, Utah is expected to once again be won comfortably by Republican nominee Donald Trump.[2][3]
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden initially ran for reelection to a second term, but dropped out of the race prior to the Democratic National Convention.[4] Former President Donald Trump ran for reelection to a second non-consecutive term after losing to Biden in 2020.[5] Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gathered the required signatures to qualify for the ballot in early-January but would later withdraw.[6]
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]The Utah Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Incumbent president Joe Biden easily won the state, facing minor opposition from activist Marianne Williamson and Congressman Dean Phillips.
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- >90%
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 58,872 | 86.9% | 30 | ||
| Marianne Williamson | 3,521 | 5.2% | |||
| Dean Phillips | 3,024 | 4.5% | |||
| Gabriel Cornejo | 1,503 | 2.2% | |||
| Frankie Lozada | 859 | 1.3% | |||
| Total: | 67,779 | 100% | 34 | 34 | |
Republican primary
[edit]The Utah Republican caucuses were held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald Trump defeated former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley in one of his weakest performances of the greater Republican primaries. The state GOP returned to organizing a caucus after its use of the primary system in 2020, which significantly lowered turnout.
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- >90%
- 50–60%
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 48,350 | 56.35% | 40 | 40 | |
| Nikki Haley | 36,621 | 42.68% | |||
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 826 | 0.96% | |||
| Total: | 85,797 | 100.00% | 40 | 40 | |
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[9] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[10] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] | Safe R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[12] | Safe R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[13] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[14] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[15] | Safe R | June 12, 2024 |
| 538[16] | Solid R | June 11, 2024 |
| RCP[17] | Solid R | June 26, 2024 |
| NBC News[18] | Safe R | October 6, 2024 |
Candidate ballot access
[edit]As of August 2024, the following candidates have been designated as "Election Candidates":[19]
- Kamala Harris / Tim Walz, Democratic
- Claudia De la Cruz / Karina Garcia, unaffiliated[a]
- Lucifer "Justin Case" Everylove, unaffiliated
- Cornel West / Melina Abdullah, unaffiliated
- Donald Trump / JD Vance, Republican
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. lawsuit
[edit]On December 5, 2023, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. filed a lawsuit against lieutenant governor Deidre Henderson and state elections director Ryan Cowley, arguing that the state's requirement for unaffiliated candidates to attain 1,000 verified signatures before the January 8 deadline is unconstitutional and that it forces Kennedy's campaign to hire professional petition circulators. In the 2020 election, the filing deadline was August 17, and was moved up in a bill passed by the Utah State Legislature in February 2022. Campaign lawyer Paul Rossi argued that the deadline was made "to block any third-party candidates from appearing on Utah's ballot," showing "an absolute contempt for the Constitution."[20] A court filing was made by state attorney general Sean Reyes on December 7, stating that Henderson and Cowley have agreed to not enforce the deadline until March 5, 2024, per request of senior judge David Nuffer.[21] Kennedy later qualified to appear on the Utah ballot on December 28, 2023, marking the first state to award him official ballot access.[22]Kennedy would later withdraw from the ballot in Utah after the suspension of his campaign and endorse Donald Trump for President.[19]
Polling
[edit]Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote[23] | October 7–30, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 60% | 40% | – |
| Noble Predictive Insights[24] | October 2–7, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 39% | 9% |
| 539 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 54% | 38% | 8% | ||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[25][A] | September 27–28, 2024 | 612 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 54% | 39% | 7% |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights[26] | October 25–28, 2024 | 695 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 54% | 34% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 11%[c] |
| Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics[27] | October 15–19, 2024 | 813 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 61% | 30% | 2% | 1% | – | 6% |
| 63%[d] | 31% | 4% | 2% | – | – | ||||
| Noble Predictive Insights[24] | October 2–7, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 37% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 8%[e] |
| 539 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 54% | 36% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 6%[e] |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics[28] | June 4–7, 2024 | 857 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| John Zogby Strategies[29][B] | April 13–21, 2024 | 414 (LV) | – | 46% | 43% | 11% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[30] | April 8–16, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[31] | February 29 – March 3, 2024 | 174 (RV) | – | 46% | 37% | 17%[f] |
| 166 (LV) | 46% | 38% | 16%[f] | |||
| Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics[32] | January 16–21, 2024 | 801 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 33% | 24%[g] |
| Emerson College[33] | October 25–28, 2022 | 825 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 34% | 19% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics[28] | June 4–7, 2024 | 857 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 49% | 20% | 20% | 11% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights[30] | April 8–16, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 23% | 13% | 1% | 1% | 15% |
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[29][B] | April 13–21, 2024 | 414 (LV) | – | 40% | 44% | 16% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[29][B] | April 13–21, 2024 | 414 (LV) | – | 54% | 36% | 10% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 647,278 | 59.0% |  0.5%
| ||
| Democratic | 415,373 | 38.2% | 1.21%
| ||
| Libertarian | 11,631 | 1.0% |  1.58%
| ||
| Constitution |
|
6,277 | 0.5% | 0.03%
| |
| Green | 5,505 | 0.5% | 0.16%
| ||
| Socialism and Liberation |
|
2,175 | 0.2% | 0.12%
| |
| Independent |
|
1,965 | 0.2% | N/A | |
| Independent | 1,548 | 0.1% | N/A | ||
| Write-in | |||||
| Total votes | 1,167,790 | 100.00% | |||
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Utah
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ De la Cruz and Garcia were nominated by the Party for Socialism and Liberation but are listed on the ballot as independents because the party did not have ballot access.
- ^ a b c d e f g Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Joel Skousen (C) and Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 1% each
- ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ a b Joel Skousen (C) with 0%
- ^ a b "Another candidate" with 11%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 24%
- ^ Randall Terry was nominated by the national Constitution Party, though the state party nominated Joel Skousen.
- ^ Listed on the ballot without party affiliation.
Partisan clients
- ^ Poll sponsored by the campaign of Brian King, the Democratic nominee for Utah's gubernatorial election
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
References
[edit]- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 7, 2024.
- ^ Benson, Samuel (June 13, 2024). "Poll: Trump leads big among Utah voters; Biden, Kennedy tied". Deseret News. Retrieved June 13, 2024.
- ^ Schrader, Adam; Moran, Mark (July 21, 2024). "After dropping out of race, Biden endorses Kamala Harris for president". CNBC.
- ^ Orr, Gabby (November 16, 2022). "Former President Donald Trump announces a White House bid for 2024". CNN.com. Retrieved October 8, 2023.
- ^ "Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Files as presidential candidate in Utah, the first state to grant him access". Associated Press News. January 3, 2024.
- ^ "Utah Democratic Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
- ^ "Utah Republican Caucus Results". The New York Times. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
- ^ a b "2024 Candidate Filings". Utah Voter Information. Lieutenant Governor of Utah. Retrieved April 12, 2024.
- ^ Schott, Bryan (December 5, 2023). "RFK Jr. sues Utah over ballot access requirements". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved August 6, 2024.
- ^ Pellish, Aaron (December 7, 2023). "Utah officials temporarily delay ballot access filing deadline after RFK Jr. lawsuit". CNN. Retrieved April 12, 2024.
- ^ "RFK Jr. Qualifies for His First 2024 Ballot in Utah". Yahoo News. December 29, 2023. Retrieved December 30, 2023.
- ^ Allis, Victor (October 31, 2024). "Trump Leads in Utah". ActiVote. Retrieved November 1, 2024.
- ^ a b "Trump Surges Ahead of Harris in Utah Showdown". Noble Predictive Insights. October 16, 2024.
- ^ Gehrke, Robert (October 9, 2024). "King campaign points to new poll, says it is within striking distance of Cox in Utah governor;s race". The Salt Lake Tribune.
- ^ "UTAH POLL OF RECORD: Republicans Lead by Double Digits Up and Down the Ballot". Noble Predictive Insights. October 30, 2024.
- ^ Bates, Suzanne (October 25, 2024). "Trump way ahead of Harris among Utah voters in presidential race". Deseret News.
- ^ a b Benson, Samuel (June 12, 2024). "Poll: Trump leads big among Utah voters". Deseret News.
- ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
- ^ a b "Utah 2024 Presidential Election: Trump's Commanding Lead". Noble Predictive Insights. May 2, 2024.
- ^ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Super Tuesday States" (PDF). FAU Polling. March 4, 2024.
- ^ Benson, Samuel (February 3, 2024). "A new poll shows how Trump and Biden fare against a third-party candidate in Utah". Deseret News.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (October 31, 2022). "Utah 2022: Senator Mike Lee Holds 10-Point Lead Over Evan McMullin". Emerson Polling.
- ^ "2024 Candidate Filings – Utah Voter Information". Utah.gov. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
