Jump to content

2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election

← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Josh Stein Mark Robinson
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 3,069,831 2,241,644
Percentage 54.89% 40.09%

Stein:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Robinson:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

Governor before election

Roy Cooper
Democratic

Elected Governor

Josh Stein
Democratic

The 2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of North Carolina. Democratic state attorney general Josh Stein won his first term in office, defeating Republican lieutenant governor Mark Robinson. He will succeed Democratic incumbent Roy Cooper, who was term-limited.

Primary elections took place on March 5, 2024.[1] Stein won the Democratic nomination with 70% of the vote over former state Supreme Court justice Michael R. Morgan and Robinson won the Republican nomination with 65% of the vote over state treasurer Dale Folwell.

The race was initially competitive, with Stein holding a narrow lead in part due to Robinson's history of controversial statements. After Robinson was linked to disturbing comments on a pornographic website less than two months before the election, Stein gained a significant polling advantage that held for the remainder of the race. Stein went on to win the election by 14.8%, the largest margin for a gubernatorial candidate in North Carolina since Jim Hunt in 1980. Stein received more than three million votes, the most of any candidate in the history of statewide elections in North Carolina. He will also be the first Jewish governor of the state.[2] Analysts have credited Stein’s large margin of victory with helping down-ballot Democrats in concurrent elections.[3][4]

Background

[edit]

A typical swing state, North Carolina is considered to be a purple to slightly red southern state at the federal level. Both U.S. senators from the state are members of the Republican Party. Its U.S. House delegation is evenly split between Republicans and Democrats. Democrats and Republicans both hold multiple statewide offices in North Carolina. In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump carried North Carolina by 1.34 percentage points, the smallest margin among the states he won.[5][6]

Incumbent Roy Cooper was first elected in 2016, defeating then-incumbent governor Pat McCrory by about 0.2 points. Cooper was re-elected in 2020 by 4.5 percentage points.[6][7]

The Democratic nominee is Josh Stein, the current state attorney general. The Republican nominee is Mark Robinson, the current lieutenant governor.[8]

The 2024 election was initially expected to be competitive due to the state's nearly even to slightly right-leaning partisan lean, the concurrent presidential election, and the seat being open due to term limits. However, Robinson had become embroiled in numerous controversies since becoming the nominee, allowing Stein to open up a large and consistent lead in polls.[9]

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Josh Stein
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Chrelle
Booker
Gary
Foxx
Michael
Morgan
Josh
Stein
Marcus
Williams
Other Undecided
High Point University February 16–23, 2024 322 (LV) ± 6.0% 10% 10% 14% 57% 9%
Change Research (D)[A] February 15–19, 2024 1,622 (LV) ± 2.6% 8% 49% 4%[b] 39%
East Carolina University February 9–12, 2024 1,207 (RV) ± 3.3% 2% 2% 7% 57% 3% 29%
Meredith College January 26–31, 2024 760 (RV) ± 3.5% 5% 3% 4% 31% 2% 4% 51%
Public Policy Polling (D) December 15–16, 2023 556 (LV) ± 4.2% 3% 1% 5% 56% 4% 32%
December 15, 2023 Foxx joins the race
December 14, 2023 Williams joins the race
November 2, 2023 Booker joins the race
Meredith College November 1–5, 2023 755 (RV) ± 3.5% 11% 38% 9% 42%
Meredith College September 16–19, 2023 308 (RV) ± 3.5% 11% 33% 10% 46%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Mandy
Cohen
Jeff
Jackson
Josh
Stein
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[A] October 7–8, 2022 606 (RV) ± 4.0% 18% 12% 22% 9% 39%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
Stein
  •   Stein—80–90%
  •   Stein—70–80%
  •   Stein—60–70%
  •   Stein—50–60%
  •   Stein—40–50%
  •   Stein—30–40%
Morgan
  •   Morgan—50–60%
  •   Morgan—40–50%
Democratic primary results[31]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Josh Stein 479,026 69.60%
Democratic Michael R. Morgan 98,627 14.33%
Democratic Chrelle Booker 46,045 6.69%
Democratic Marcus Williams 39,257 5.70%
Democratic Gary Foxx 25,283 3.67%
Total votes 688,238 100.0%

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Dale Folwell
Council of State officials
Newspapers
Bill Graham
U.S. senators
Mark Robinson
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State senators
State representatives
Organizations
Newspapers

Debate

[edit]
2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election Republican primary debate
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican Republican Republican
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Dale Folwell Mark Walker Jesse Thomas
1 September 12, 2023 Wake County
Republican Party
Bill LuMaye YouTube P P P

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Dale
Folwell
Bill
Graham
Mark
Robinson
Jesse
Thomas
Mark
Walker
Andy
Wells
Other Undecided
High Point University February 16–23, 2024 394 (LV) ± 6.0% 17% 33% 51% 9%
Capen Analytics February 21, 2024 12,580 (LV) ± 5.0% 29% 18% 53%
Change Research (D)[A] February 15–19, 2024 1,622 (LV) ± 2.6% 9% 9% 57% 3%[c] 22%
East Carolina University February 9–12, 2024 1,207 (RV) ± 3.3% 7% 13% 53% 27%
Meredith College January 26–31, 2024 760 (RV) ± 3.5% 4% 9% 34% 10% 42%
Public Policy Polling (D) January 5–6, 2024 619 (LV) ± 3.9% 7% 15% 55% 24%
December 16, 2023 Wells withdraws from the race
East Carolina University November 29 – December 1, 2023 445 (LV) ± 5.4% 7% 8% 34% 3% 49%
November 2, 2023 Thomas withdraws from the race
Meredith College November 1–5, 2023 755 (RV) ± 3.5% 3% 5% 41% 2% 1% 6% 42%
October 25, 2023 Walker withdraws from the race
October 18, 2023 Graham joins the race
Cygnal[B] October 8–9, 2023 600 (LV) ± 3.9% 5% 49% 1% 4% 1% 41%
Meredith College September 16–19, 2023 350 (RV) ± 3.5% 3% 34% 3% 7% 3% 6% 44%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Dale
Folwell
Pat
McCrory
Mark
Robinson
Thom
Tillis
Steve
Troxler
Mark
Walker
Other Undecided
Opinion Diagnostics June 5–7, 2023 902 (LV) ± 3.3% 4% - 44% - - 7% 7% 38%
SurveyUSA[B] April 25–29, 2023 707 (LV) ± 4.4% 4% - 43% - 9% 8% - 37%
The Differentiators (R) December 12, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.0% 6% - 60% - - - - 34%
- 21% 60% - - - - 19%
- - 58% - - 8% - 34%
Public Policy Polling (D)[A] October 7–8, 2022 606 (RV) ± 4.0% 4% - 54% 20% - - 5% 17%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
Robinson
  •   Robinson—80–90%
  •   Robinson—70–80%
  •   Robinson—60–70%
  •   Robinson—50–60%
  •   Robinson—40–50%
Republican primary results[31]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mark Robinson 666,504 64.83%
Republican Dale Folwell 196,955 19.16%
Republican Bill Graham 164,572 16.01%
Total votes 1,028,031 100.0%

Other candidates

[edit]

Libertarian Party

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • Shannon Bray, cybersecurity professional and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020 and 2022[48]

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Ross
  •   Ross—100%
  •   Ross—80–90%
  •   Ross—70–80%
  •   Ross—60–70%
  •   Ross—50–60%
  Bray
  •   Bray—100%
  •   Bray—70–80%
  •   Bray—60–70%
  •   Bray—50–60%
  Tie
  •   Tie—50–60%
Libertarian primary results[31]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Mike Ross 2,910 59.45%
Libertarian Shannon Bray 1,985 40.55%
Total votes 4,895 100.0%

Green Party

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Constitution Party

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

General election

[edit]

Campaign

[edit]

Stein and Robinson faced each other in the general election. With the backing of former President Donald Trump, Robinson has received heavy criticism from Democrats over statements on abortion rights, LGBTQ rights, and education. Robinson has also made a series of controversial statements before and after taking public office, including engaging in Holocaust denial.[50] Robinson has also received criticism from some moderate Republicans, including Senator Thom Tillis and primary opponent Dale Folwell, both of whom declined to endorse Robinson.[51] On September 17, Stein refused any potential debates with Robinson following a challenge from him.[52]

Calls for Robinson to drop out

[edit]

On September 19, CNN released a story detailing racist, antisemitic, misogynistic, and other "disturbing comments" made by an account suspected to be Robinson on a pornography website between 2008 and 2012.[53][54] Hours later, CNN specified multiple comments made on pornography website message boards, including Robinson calling himself a "black NAZI" and expressing support for reinstating slavery.[55] The Carolina Journal had reported that earlier in the week the Trump–Vance campaign privately told Robinson that he was not welcome at rallies for Donald Trump or JD Vance.[56] This occurred on the same day as the filing deadline for North Carolina's 2024 election ballots. Before the story was released, Robinson released a video dismissing the report as "tabloid lies" and saying that he would not drop out of the race.[57] His campaign canceled events in Henderson and Norlina planned for the same day. Republican state senate nominee Scott Lassiter was the first on the ballot with Robinson to call for him to "step aside".[54] Republican North Carolina senator Ted Budd said, "the allegations are concerning but we don’t have any facts".[58] That afternoon, Politico reported that an email address belonging to Robinson was registered on Ashley Madison, a website designed for people seeking affairs while married.[59] The deadline for Robinson to withdraw from the race or be removed from the ballot passed on the morning of September 20.[60]

Following CNN's September report, most forecasters moved the race to 'Likely Democratic', while Elections Daily moved the race to Safe Democratic.[61][9][62][63]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[62] Likely D September 20, 2024
Inside Elections[64] Likely D September 26, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[65] Likely D September 19, 2024
RCP[66] Likely D September 28, 2024
Fox News[67] Likely D September 25, 2024
Elections Daily[68] Safe D September 19, 2024
CNalysis[63] Solid D October 15, 2024
Split Ticket[69] Safe D October 19, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

[edit]
Josh Stein (D)
U.S. executive branch officials
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State senators
State representatives
Organizations
Individuals
Declined to endorse
Statewide officials
U.S. senators

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of October 19, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Josh Stein (D) $77,521,905 $76,601,833 $1,208,360
Mark Robinson (R) $19,852,871 $19,209,887 $680,641
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections[88]

Polling

[edit]
Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Josh
Stein (D)
Mark
Robinson (R)
Undecided
[d]
Margin
RealClearPolitics[89] October 16 – November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 53.1% 38.8% 8.1% Stein +14.3%
270ToWin[90] October 24 – November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 53.1% 38.0% 8.9% Stein +15.1%
The Hill/DDHQ[91] through November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 53.4% 38.8% 7.8% Stein +14.6%
Average 53.2% 38.5% 8.2% Stein +14.7%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Josh
Stein (D)
Mark
Robinson (R)
Other Undecided
AtlasIntel November 3–4, 2024 1,219 (LV) ± 3.0% 54% 38% 4%[e] 4%
AtlasIntel November 1–2, 2024 1,310 (LV) ± 3.0% 52% 41% 4%[e] 3%
Emerson College[C] October 30 – November 2, 2024 860 (LV) ± 3.3% 52% 40% 4% 4%
NYT/Siena College October 28 – November 2, 2024 1,010 (LV) ± 3.6% 56% 38% 5%
1,010 (RV) ± 3.6% 56% 36% 7%
Morning Consult October 23 – November 1, 2024 1,056 (LV) ± 3.0% 52% 36% 12%
ActiVote October 17–31, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 58% 42%
AtlasIntel October 27–30, 2024 1,373 (LV) ± 3.0% 52% 42% 4%[e] 2%
AtlasIntel October 25–29, 2024 1,665 (LV) ± 3.0% 54% 39% 4%[e] 4%
East Carolina University October 24–29, 2024 1,250 (LV) ± 3.0% 55% 40% 5%[f]
Fox News October 24–28, 2024 872 (LV) ± 3.0% 57% 41% 2%
1,113 (RV) ± 3.0% 59% 38% 1% 2%
CNN/SSRS October 23–28, 2024 750 (LV) ± 4.5% 53% 37% 10%[g] 1%
SurveyUSA[D] October 23–26, 2024 853 (LV) ± 4.1% 52% 37% 1% 10%
UMass Lowell/YouGov October 16–23, 2024 650 (LV) ± 4.2% 48% 36% 3%[h] 12%
Emerson College October 21–22, 2024 950 (LV) ± 3.1% 51% 39% 4%[i] 6%
Marist College October 17–22, 2024 1,226 (LV) ± 3.6% 55% 41% 3%[j] 2%
1,410 (RV) ± 3.3% 55% 40% 3%[j] 2%
SoCal Strategies (R)[E] October 20–21, 2024 702 (LV) ± 3.7% 55% 40% 5%
SurveyUSA[F] October 17–20, 2024 1,164 (RV) ± 3.7% 50% 34% 15%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[G] October 16–18, 2024 843 (LV) ± 3.1% 45% 37% 6%[k] 10%
AtlasIntel October 12–17, 2024 1,674 (LV) ± 2.0% 54% 39% 3%[l] 4%
Elon University October 10–17, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.99% 52% 31% 7%[m] 10%
Morning Consult October 6–15, 2024 1,072 (LV) ± 3.0% 54% 32% 4% 10%
Cygnal (R)[H] October 12–14, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 36% 4%[n] 11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[G] October 12–14, 2024 620 (LV) ± 3.6% 45% 38% 8%[o] 9%
Quinnipiac University October 10–14, 2024 1,031 (LV) ± 3.1% 54% 42% 2%[p] 2%
52% 40% 5%[q] 2%
Emerson College[I] October 5–8, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 34% 5%[r] 11%
ActiVote September 5 – October 5, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 56.5% 43.5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[G] September 27 – October 2, 2024 753 (LV) ± 3.3% 46% 36% 4%[s] 14%
Quinnipiac University September 25–29, 2024 953 (LV) ± 3.2% 53% 41% 2%[t] 4%
52% 39% 6%[u] 3%
The Washington Post September 25–29, 2024 1,001 (LV) ± 3.5% 54% 38% 2%[v] 6%
1,001 (RV) ± 3.5% 53% 38% 2%[w] 7%
High Point University September 20–29, 2024 589 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 34% 3% 11%
814 (RV) ± 3.4% 51% 32% 3% 14%
Emerson College[J] September 27–28, 2024 850 (LV) ± 3.3% 52% 33% 4%[x] 12%
RMG Research[K] September 25–27, 2024 780 (LV) ± 3.5% 53% 38% 5%[y] 8%
East Carolina University September 23–26, 2024 1,005 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 33% 5%[z] 13%
AtlasIntel September 20–25, 2024 1,173 (LV) ± 3.0% 54% 38% 3%[aa] 5%
CNN/SSRS September 20–25, 2024 931 (LV) ± 3.9% 53% 36% 11%[ab]
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[L] September 19–25, 2024 411 (LV) 53% 33% 7%[ac] 8%
59% 35% 6%
Fox News September 20–24, 2024 787 (LV) ± 3.5% 56% 41% 1%[ad] 3%
991 (RV) ± 3.0% 56% 40% 2%[ae] 3%
Marist College September 19–24, 2024 1,507 (RV) ± 3.5% 54% 42% 1%[af] 3%
1,348 (LV) ± 3.7% 54% 43% 1%[af] 2%
September 19, 2024 CNN Reports that Mark Robinson made disturbing comments on an online forum years ago.
NYT/Siena College September 17–21, 2024 682 (LV) ± 4.2% 47% 37% 16%
682 (RV) ± 4.2% 47% 36% 17%
Meredith College September 18–20, 2024 802 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 40% 5%[ag] 9%
Victory Insights (R) September 16–18, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 42% 11%
Emerson College[I] September 15–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 40% 2%[ah] 10%
Morning Consult September 11–18, 2024 1,314 (LV) ± 2.7% 50% 37% 1% 12%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/
Impact Research (D)
[M]
September 11–17, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 52% 42% 6%
Cygnal (R)[H] September 15–16, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 39% 2%[ai] 13%
Elon University September 4–13, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.74% 49% 35% 3% 9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[G] September 6–9, 2024 495 (LV) ± 3.8% 42% 33% 3%[aj] 23%
Quinnipiac University September 4–8, 2024 940 (LV) ± 3.2% 54% 42% 1%[ak] 4%
51% 41% 5%[al] 4%
Morning Consult August 30 – September 8, 2024 1,369 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 37% 2%[am] 11%
SurveyUSA[D] September 4–7, 2024 676 (LV) ± 4.9% 51% 37% 12%
Florida Atlantic University September 5–6, 2024 692 (RV) ± 3.7% 48% 38% 14%
619 (LV) ± 3.7% 50% 39% 11%
Emerson College[I] August 25–28, 2024 775 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 41% 3%[an] 10%
East Carolina University August 25–28, 2024 920 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 41% 1%[ao] 11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[G] August 25–28, 2024 812 (LV) ± 3.18% 44% 40% 4%[ap] 13%
SoCal Strategies (R)[E] August 26–27, 2024 612 (LV) 47% 37% 16%
Fox News August 23–26, 2024 1,026 (RV) ± 3.0% 54% 43% 2%[aq] 1%
ActiVote July 26 – August 26, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 54% 46%
SurveyUSA[F] August 19–21, 2024 1,053 (RV) ± 4.0% 48% 34% 18%
941 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 36% 14%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[G] August 12–15, 2024 601 (LV) ± 3.7% 45% 39% 3%[ar] 13%
NYT/Siena College August 9–14, 2024 655 (RV) ± 4.2% 48% 38% 14%
655 (LV) ± 4.2% 49% 39% 12%
YouGov (D)[A] August 5–9, 2024 802 (RV) ± 3.9% 46% 36% 6%[as] 13%
Cygnal (R) August 4–5, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 38% 4%[at] 15%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies July 31 – August 3, 2024 714 (LV) 43% 38% 3%[au] 16%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies July 22–24, 2024 586 (LV) 38% 34% 5%[av] 23%
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden withdraws from the presidential race
Public Policy Polling (D)[N] July 19–20, 2024 573 (RV) 48% 42% 10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[G] July 16–18, 2024 461 (LV) ± 4.0% 37% 36% 4%[aw] 23%
Expedition Strategies[O] June 24 – July 8, 2024 284 (LV) 48% 41% 11%
Spry Strategies June 7–11, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 43% 18%
East Carolina University May 31 – June 3, 2024 1,332 (LV) ± 3.1% 44% 43% 13%
North Star Opinion Research (R)[P] May 29 – June 2, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 44% 14%
Change Research (D)[A] May 13–18, 2024 835 (LV) ± 3.8% 44% 43% 13%
High Point University May 2–9, 2024 804 (RV) ± 3.2% 34% 39% 27%
1,002 (A) ± 3.2% 30% 35% 35%
Cygnal (R)[Q] May 4–5, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 39% 5%[ax] 17%
Emerson College April 25–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 42% 5%[ay] 12%
Meeting Street Insights (R)[R] April 25–28, 2024 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 44% 37% 6%[az] 13%
Meredith College April 11–17, 2024 711 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 36% 20%
Cygnal (R)[B] April 7–8, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 38% 40% 18%
Quinnipiac University April 4–8, 2024 1,401 (RV) ± 2.6% 52% 44% 2%[ba] 3%
48% 41% 7%[bb] 3%
High Point University March 22–30, 2024 829 (RV) ± 3.4% 37% 34% 29%
Marist College March 11–14, 2024 1,197 (RV) ± 3.6% 49% 47% 4%
SurveyUSA[D] March 3–9, 2024 598 (LV) ± 4.9% 44% 42% 14%
Cygnal (R)[B] March 6–7, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 44% 17%
Change Research (D)[A] February 15–19, 2024 1,622 (LV) ± 2.6% 42% 43% 15%
East Carolina University February 9–12, 2024 1,207 (RV) ± 3.3% 41% 41% 14%
Meredith College January 26–31, 2024 760 (RV) ± 3.5% 39% 35% 17%
East Carolina University November 29 – December 1, 2023 915 (RV) ± 3.8% 40% 44% 16%
Meredith College November 1–5, 2023 755 (RV) ± 3.5% 38% 36% 19%
Change Research (D)[A] September 1–5, 2023 914 (LV) ± 3.6% 38% 42% 20%
Opinion Diagnostics June 5–7, 2023 902 (LV) ± 3.3% 38% 41% 21%
Cygnal (R)[B] May 12–23, 2023 610 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 42% 18%
Change Research (D)[A] May 5–8, 2023 802 (LV) ± 3.9% 43% 46% 11%
Public Policy Polling (D) March 2–3, 2023 704 (RV) ± 3.7% 42% 44% 14%
Differentiator Data (R)[S] January 9–12, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 42% 42% 16%
Public Policy Polling (D)[A] October 7–8, 2022 606 (RV) ± 4.0% 44% 42% 14%
Meeting Street Insights (R)[T] May 12–16, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 42% 48% 10%
Hypothetical polling
Josh Stein vs. Dale Folwell
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Josh
Stein (D)
Dale
Folwell (R)
Undecided
East Carolina University February 9–12, 2024 1,207 (RV) ± 3.3% 42% 31% 27%
East Carolina University November 29 – December 1, 2023 915 (RV) ± 3.8% 40% 38% 22%
Cygnal (R)[B] May 12–23, 2023 610 (LV) ± 3.96% 39% 34% 27%
Josh Stein vs. Bill Graham
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Josh
Stein (D)
Bill
Graham (R)
Undecided
East Carolina University February 9–12, 2024 1,207 (RV) ± 3.3% 40% 35% 25%
East Carolina University November 29 – December 1, 2023 915 (RV) ± 3.8% 42% 39% 19%
Josh Stein vs. Mark Walker
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Josh
Stein (D)
Mark
Walker (R)
Undecided
Cygnal (R)[B] May 12–23, 2023 610 (LV) ± 3.96% 39% 37% 24%
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
Other Undecided
High Point University February 16–23, 2024 753 (LV) ± 3.9% 46% 45% 2%[bc] 7%

Results

[edit]
2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Josh Stein 3,068,499 54.89% +3.37%
Republican Mark Robinson 2,241,072 40.09% –6.92%
Libertarian Mike Ross 176,326 3.15% +2.05%
Constitution Vinny Smith 54,716 0.98% N/A
Green Wayne Turner 49,583 0.89% N/A
Total votes 5,590,196 100%
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

[edit]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ "Would not vote" with 4%
  3. ^ "Would not vote" with 3%
  4. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  5. ^ a b c d "Other" with 2%; "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 2%
  6. ^ Ross (L) with 3%
  7. ^ "Neither" with 6%; "Other" with 3%
  8. ^ Ross (L) with 2%; Smith (C) with 1%
  9. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  10. ^ a b "Another party's candidate" with 3%
  11. ^ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 3%; Ross (L) with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  12. ^ "Other" with 2%; "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%
  13. ^ "Other" with 4%; "None" with 3%
  14. ^ Ross (L) with 3%; Turner (G) with 1%; Smith (C) with <1%
  15. ^ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 4%; Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  16. ^ "Refused" with 2%
  17. ^ Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G) and Smith (C) with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  18. ^ "Someone else" with 5%
  19. ^ Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  20. ^ "Wouldn't Vote" and "Refused" with 1%
  21. ^ Ross (L) with 3%, Smith (C), "Wouldn't Vote", and "Refused" with 1%
  22. ^ "Wouldn't vote" with 2%
  23. ^ "Wouldn't vote" with 2%
  24. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  25. ^ "Someone else" with 4%; "Would Not Vote" with 1%
  26. ^ Ross (L) with 3%; Smith (C), "Other" with 1%
  27. ^ "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  28. ^ "Neither" with 8%; "Other" with 3%
  29. ^ "Someone else" with 3%; "Would not vote" with 4%
  30. ^ "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  31. ^ "Other" with 1%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  32. ^ a b "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  33. ^ Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G), Smith (C), and "Someone else" with 1%
  34. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  35. ^ Ross (L) with 2%
  36. ^ Ross (L) with 1%; "Other" with 2%
  37. ^ "Refused" with 1%
  38. ^ Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G) with 1%; Smith (C) with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  39. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  40. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  41. ^ Ross (L) with 1%; Turner (G), Smith (C), "Write-in candidate" each with <1%
  42. ^ Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Others" with 1%
  43. ^ "Other" with 1%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  44. ^ Ross (L) with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  45. ^ Ross (L) with 1%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Undecided Third Party" with 4%
  46. ^ Ross (L) with 3%; Turner (G) with 1%
  47. ^ Ross (L) with 1%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  48. ^ Ross (L) with 3%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  49. ^ Ross (L) with 1%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 2%
  50. ^ Ross (L) with 4%; Turner (G) with 1%
  51. ^ "Someone else" with 5%
  52. ^ Ross (L) with 4%; Turner (G) with 2%
  53. ^ "Wouldn't vote" with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  54. ^ Ross (L) with 4%; Turner (G) with 2%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  55. ^ "Another party's candidate" with 2%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Poll sponsored by Carolina Forward
  2. ^ a b c d e f g Poll sponsored by the John Locke Foundation
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by Nexstar
  4. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by WRAL-TV
  5. ^ a b Poll sponsored by On Point Politics and Red Eagle Politics, which supports Republican candidates.
  6. ^ a b Poll sponsored by High Point University
  7. ^ a b c d e f g Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
  8. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Carolina Journal
  9. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by The Hill
  10. ^ Poll sponsored by RealClearWorld
  11. ^ Poll sponsored by Napolitan Institute
  12. ^ Poll sponsored by The Cook Political Report
  13. ^ Poll sponsored by AARP
  14. ^ Poll sponsored by Clean and Prosperous America PAC, which supports Democratic candidates
  15. ^ Poll Sponsored by Progressive Policy Institute
  16. ^ Poll sponsored by American Greatness
  17. ^ Poll sponsored by the Carolina Journal
  18. ^ Poll sponsored by Carolina Partnership for Reform & Carolina Leadership Coalition
  19. ^ This poll was sponsored by the NC Values Commission
  20. ^ This poll was sponsored by the Carolina Partnership for Reform

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". ncsl.org. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
  2. ^ "Josh Stein defeats Mark Robinson to become North Carolina's first Jewish governor". The Jerusalem Post. Retrieved November 5, 2024.
  3. ^ "Democrats Actually Had Quite a Good Night in North Carolina". The Atlantic. Retrieved November 17, 2024.
  4. ^ "North Carolina Democrats find electoral success further down the ballot and hope to build on it". Associated Press. Retrieved November 17, 2024.
  5. ^ "Republican Ted Budd wins North Carolina's U.S. Senate race". AP NEWS. November 8, 2022. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  6. ^ a b "State Composite Abstract Report - Contest.pdf" (PDF). North Carolina State Board of Elections. Retrieved November 24, 2020.
  7. ^ "North Carolina Official General Election Results". North Carolina State Board of Elections. November 8, 2016. Retrieved January 5, 2017.
  8. ^ a b c d Schneider, Elena (January 18, 2023). "North Carolina AG Josh Stein launches bid for governor". Politico. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  9. ^ a b Cunningham, Eric (September 19, 2024). "Ratings Update: Mark Robinson Scandals Shift North Carolina Gubernatorial Race Shifts to Safe Democratic". Elections Daily. Retrieved September 19, 2024.
  10. ^ Langston, Grant (December 7, 2023). "Tryon councilwoman eyes North Carolina governor seat". Tryon Daily Bulletin. Retrieved December 9, 2023.
  11. ^ a b Mikkelsen, Emily; Melrose, Justyn (December 15, 2023). "Election 2024 North Carolina: These are the candidates who filed for races impacting the Piedmont Triad". WGHP. Retrieved December 18, 2023.
  12. ^ Schoenbaum, Hannah (September 12, 2023). "Former North Carolina justice enters Democratic primary for governor in 2024". Associated Press News.
  13. ^ Wooten, Alan (December 14, 2023). "Democrat Josh Stein, Libertarian Shannon Bray file for North Carolina governor race". Jacksonville Daily News. Retrieved January 19, 2024. Democrats headed to the March 5 gubernatorial primary include Chrelle Booker, Mike Morgan and Marcus Williams in addition to Stein.
  14. ^ a b c d e Doyle, Steve (November 15, 2022). "Who will run to replace North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper? Here are 6 possibilities". FOX8 WGHP. Retrieved November 29, 2022.
  15. ^ a b c "North Carolina AG Josh Stein running for governor in 2024". wcnc.com. January 18, 2023.
  16. ^ a b c Doyle, Steve (January 18, 2023). "Democrat Josh Stein is running for North Carolina governor. But who else may be on the ballot? We have names". FOX8.
  17. ^ a b "Stein Kicks Off the 2024 Cycle".
  18. ^ "Josh Stein, NC's attorney general, announces his bid for governor". Josh Stein, NC's attorney general, announces his bid for governor -.
  19. ^ Singer, Jeff (January 20, 2023). "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 1/20".
  20. ^ "Democratic NC Attorney General Josh Stein to run for governor". January 18, 2023.
  21. ^ Hubbard, Kathryn (August 30, 2023). "Gov. Roy Cooper endorses AG Josh Stein for NC governor". WNCN.
  22. ^ Chi-Sing, Haley (January 18, 2023). "NC Democrat AG Stein announces run for governor, immediately slams Lt Gov Robinson". Fox News. Retrieved June 13, 2023.
  23. ^ a b "NextGen PAC Endorses North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein for Governor Ahead of 2024 Elections". NextGen America PAC. May 10, 2023. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
  24. ^ McMillan, MaryBe (June 8, 2023). "North Carolina AFL-CIO Endorses Josh Stein for Governor". NC State AFL-CIO. Retrieved June 13, 2023.
  25. ^ "NCAE Endorses Attorney General Josh Stein for Governor in 2024". North Carolina Association of Educators. April 1, 2023. Retrieved August 4, 2023.
  26. ^ "End Citizens United / Let America Vote Endorses Josh Stein for North Carolina Governor". End Citizens United. May 31, 2023. Retrieved May 31, 2023.
  27. ^ "NCLCV Conservation PAC endorses AG Josh Stein for Governor". March 1, 2023. Retrieved August 4, 2023.
  28. ^ "Reproductive Freedom for All Endorses Attorney General Josh Stein for Governor in North Carolina". Reproductive Freedom for All. November 2, 2023. Archived from the original on November 2, 2023. Retrieved November 2, 2023.
  29. ^ "Endorsements". Sierra Club. Retrieved February 6, 2024.
  30. ^ a b "NC governor endorsements: Our choices in the Democratic and GOP primaries". The Charlotte Observer. February 18, 2024.
  31. ^ a b c "03/05/2024 OFFICIAL PRIMARY ELECTION RESULTS - STATEWIDE". North Carolina State Board of Elections. Retrieved March 6, 2024.
  32. ^ a b c d Mikkelsen, Emily; Stamps, Brayden (April 22, 2023). "Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson announces run for governor at cloudy Ace Speedway rally". Fox 8. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
  33. ^ Robertson, Gary (March 25, 2023). "North Carolina treasurer running for governor in 2024". The Seattle Times. Retrieved March 25, 2023.
  34. ^ Solano, Christina (October 18, 2023). "North Carolina's race for governor grows with campaign announcement by Bill Graham". WXII-TV. Retrieved October 18, 2023.
  35. ^ "Ex-health care executive ends bid for North Carolina governor, running now for secretary of state". Associated Press News. November 2, 2023.
  36. ^ Woodhouse, Dallas (October 25, 2023). "Mark Walker exits governor's race to seek new Triad-area congressional seat". Carolina Journal. Retrieved October 25, 2023.
  37. ^ Griffin, Kevin (December 16, 2023). "Former state senator from Hickory declines to file for governor after announcing campaign". Hickory Daily Record. Retrieved December 18, 2023.
  38. ^ Casts, Pocket. "U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis talks openly on hot topics, career ambitions and his song playlist - Tying It Together with Tim Boyum". Pocket Casts.
  39. ^ a b Fahlberg, Audrey (December 8, 2023). "Senator Thom Tillis Endorses Attorney Bill Graham in N.C. GOP Gov Primary, Dealing Blow to Frontrunner Mark Robinson". National Review.
  40. ^ "Former North Carolina Gov. Jim Martin endorses Dale Folwell in governor's race". FOX8 WGHP. January 25, 2024. Retrieved January 25, 2024.
  41. ^ "Trump Pledges to Endorse Mark Robinson for North Carolina Governor". U.S. News. June 10, 2023. Retrieved June 12, 2023.
  42. ^ Robertson, Gary D. (April 22, 2023). "Conservative Robinson joins race for N. Carolina governor". Associated Press News. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
  43. ^ a b Bajpai, Avi (April 22, 2023). "NC Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson officially launches his campaign for governor". News & Observer. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
  44. ^ NRA-PVF. "NRA's Political Victory Fund Endorses Mark Robinson for Governor with an "A+" Rating". NRA-PVF. Retrieved February 14, 2024.
  45. ^ @CPAC (January 16, 2024). "CPAC endorses Lieutenant Governor, Mark Robinson for Governor of North Carolina" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  46. ^ Hammer, John (February 27, 2024). "Rhino Endorsements In Republican Primary". The Rhino Times of Greensboro. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
  47. ^ Doyle, Steve (March 24, 2023). "Libertarian from Gaston County enters North Carolina governor's race". Fox 8. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
  48. ^ Doyle, Steve (May 25, 2023). "Shannon Bray becomes second Libertarian in race for North Carolina governor". WAVY News 10. Retrieved May 31, 2023.
  49. ^ Zehnder, Katherine (July 18, 2024). "Constitution Party candidates file for November ballot". Carolina Journal. Retrieved July 25, 2024.
  50. ^ "Republican Mark Robinson and Democrat Josh Stein will face off in North Carolina's governor race". NBC News. March 6, 2024. Retrieved April 21, 2024.
  51. ^ "State treasurer declines to endorse fellow Republican for governor". April 2, 2024. Retrieved April 21, 2024.
  52. ^ "Josh Stein won't debate Mark Robinson after lieutenant governor posts X video calling for one". September 17, 2024. Retrieved September 7, 2024.
  53. ^ Kaczynski, Andrew; Steck, Em (September 19, 2024). "Mark Robinson, NC GOP nominee for governor, called himself a 'black NAZI!,' supported slavery in past comments made on porn forum". CNN. Retrieved September 19, 2024.
  54. ^ a b "NC Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson says 'tabloid lies' won't force him out of governor's race". The News & Observer. September 19, 2024. Retrieved September 19, 2024.
  55. ^ "'I'm a black NAZI!': NC GOP nominee for governor made dozens of disturbing comments on porn forum". CNN. September 19, 2024. Retrieved September 19, 2024.
  56. ^ Staff, CJ (September 19, 2024). "Robinson under pressure to withdraw from gubernatorial race". Carolina Journal. Retrieved September 19, 2024.
  57. ^ Staff, WRAL (September 19, 2024). "Republican Mark Robinson facing pressure to suspend gubernatorial campaign". WRAL. Retrieved September 19, 2024.
  58. ^ "Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson under pressure to drop out of NC gubernatorial race". CBS 17. September 19, 2024. Retrieved September 19, 2024.
  59. ^ Allison, Natalie (September 19, 2024). "Email address belonging to Mark Robinson found on Ashley Madison". Politico. Retrieved September 19, 2024.
  60. ^ Oladipo, Gloria (September 20, 2024). "Mark Robinson to stay in North Carolina race despite revelation of offensive comments". The Guardian. Retrieved September 20, 2024.
  61. ^ Gans, Jared (September 19, 2024). "Robinson says he's staying in NC governor's race after bombshell CNN report". The Hill. Retrieved September 19, 2024.
  62. ^ a b "After New Damaging Robinson Revelations, North Carolina Governor Shifts to Likely Democrat". 2024 Governor Race ratings. The Cook Political Report. September 20, 2024. Retrieved September 20, 2024.
  63. ^ a b "Governor Forecasts". CNalysis. Retrieved October 15, 2024.
  64. ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved September 26, 2024.
  65. ^ "2024 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  66. ^ "2024 Governor Races". www.realclearpolling.com. Retrieved July 16, 2024.
  67. ^ Numa, Rémy (September 25, 2024). "Fox News Power Rankings: Harris ticks up and Senate Republicans take charge". Fox News. Retrieved September 28, 2024.
  68. ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. July 22, 2023. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  69. ^ "Governor forecasts". 2024 Governor ratings. Split Ticket. August 27, 2024. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
  70. ^ "Remarks by Vice President Harris at a Campaign Event". The White House. Greensboro, North Carolina. September 13, 2024. Retrieved October 8, 2024.
  71. ^ a b "GIFFORDS PAC Endorses Josh Stein and Jeff Jackson in North Carolina". Giffords. March 19, 2024. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
  72. ^ "Beshear's PAC issues first wave of endorsements". WKU Public Radio | The Public Radio Service of Western Kentucky University. March 26, 2024. Retrieved March 27, 2024.
  73. ^ Mueller, Julia (June 10, 2024). "Maryland Gov. Wes Moore to stump for Democrat in NC governor's race". The Hill. Retrieved June 10, 2024.
  74. ^ Bacharier, Galen (September 30, 2024). "Josh Shapiro, Wes Moore hit the campaign trail in North Carolina • NC Newsline". NC Newsline. Retrieved September 30, 2024.
  75. ^ a b c d Specht, Paul (September 18, 2024). "Former NC Senator Stevens, other Republicans to endorse Stein". WRAL News. Retrieved September 19, 2024.
  76. ^ Sinclair, Tomeka (April 23, 2024). "NC gubernatorial candidate Josh Stein makes stop in Laurinburg". Laurinburg Exchange. Retrieved June 28, 2024.
  77. ^ "Everything At Stake: Human Rights Campaign Endorses Josh Stein for Governor and Jeff Jackson for Attorney General of North Carolina". Human Rights Campaign. July 18, 2024.
  78. ^ "Jewish Dems: President Biden Stands with Israel". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved May 10, 2024.
  79. ^ Daniels, Cheyanne (September 20, 2024). "Martin Luther King III blasts Mark Robinson's alleged comments of his father". The Hill.
  80. ^ Hallas, Emily (September 23, 2024). "GOP gubernatorial leaders Kemp and Lee pull support of Robinson after allegations". National Review. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
  81. ^ Allison, Natalie (September 23, 2024). "Newly unearthed data shows closer links to Robinson and porn, dating sites". Politico. Retrieved September 23, 2024. Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee, who chairs the RGA, is pulling his support for Robinson
  82. ^ Reynolds, Nick (September 25, 2024). "McMaster joins fellow Republicans abandoning NC's scandal-ridden Mark Robinson". Post and Courier. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
  83. ^ Fahlberg, Audrey (September 25, 2024). "Glenn Youngkin Distances Himself from Mark Robinson After CNN Bombshell". National Review. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
  84. ^ Renewal, Republicans for National (April 20, 2024). "Republicans for National Renewal Endorses Mark Robinson for Governor". Republicans for National Renewal. Retrieved May 13, 2024.
  85. ^ "Mark Robinson vows to rebuild his staff for North Carolina governor". AP. Wilkesboro, North Carolina. September 23, 2024. Retrieved September 24, 2024.
  86. ^ Killian, Joe; Henkel, Clayton (April 2, 2024). "State treasurer declines to endorse fellow Republican for governor". NC Newsline. Retrieved April 13, 2024.
  87. ^ a b Schofield, Rob (April 11, 2024). "Troubled waters for Mark Robinson". NC Newsline. Retrieved April 21, 2024.
  88. ^ "Campaign Document Search By Entity". North Carolina State Board of Elections.
  89. ^ "2024 North Carolina Governor - Robinson vs. Stein | RealClearPolling". www.realclearpolling.com.
  90. ^ "2024 Polls: North Carolina Governor - 270toWin". 270toWin.com.
  91. ^ "North Carolina Governor polls - The Hill and DDHQ". The Hill.
[edit]
Official campaign websites