2024 United States presidential election in South Dakota
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| Elections in South Dakota |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in South Dakota took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. South Dakota voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of South Dakota has three electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
Like its northern twin, South Dakota is a sparsely-populated state in the Great Plains, and a Republican stronghold at both the state and federal levels. It hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon B. Johnson carried it in 1964, against the backdrop of his nationwide landslide victory; not even in 1972, when favorite son George McGovern lost his state by 8.6% as he suffered a 49-state defeat to Richard Nixon. The last presidential Democrat to come within 5% of carrying South Dakota was Bill Clinton (who lost the state by just over 3 points in both of his victories) in 1996, and the last to come within 10% was Midwesterner Barack Obama (who lost the state by 8.4%) in 2008.
Republican Donald Trump has comfortably continued South Dakota's Republican streak, carrying the state by 29.7% in 2016 and again by 26.1% four years later. Running under the Republican banner a third consecutive time, Trump once again won the state with a comfortable margin of 29.2%.
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]The South Dakota Democratic was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, Montana, New Jersey, and New Mexico.
Republican primary
[edit]The South Dakota Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in Montana, New Jersey, and New Mexico. Under state law, no primary will be held if a candidate runs for a nomination unopposed.[2] As Donald Trump was the only Republican candidate to file for the presidential primary, no popular vote was held.[3]
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[4] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[5] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[6] | Safe R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[7] | Safe R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[8] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[9] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[10] | Safe R | June 12, 2024 |
| 538[11] | Solid R | June 11, 2024 |
| RCP[12] | Solid R | June 26, 2024 |
| NBC News[13] | Safe R | October 6, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[14] | October 19–22, 2024 | 825 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 62% | 35% | 3%[b] |
| 62%[c] | 37% | 1%[d] |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[15][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 303 (LV) | – | 60% | 32% | 8% |
| Emerson College[16] | January 23–28, 2024 | 1,777 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 55% | 26% | 18% |
| Emerson College[17] | October 1–4, 2023 | 432 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 50% | 28% | 22% |
| Emerson College[18][B] | October 19–21, 2022 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 53% | 33% | 14% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon[19][C] | May 10–13, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 50% | 31% | 11% | 8% |
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[15][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 303 (LV) | – | 51% | 38% | 11% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[15][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 303 (LV) | – | 53% | 33% | 14% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 272,000 | 63.4% |  1.63%
| ||
| Democratic | 146,837 | 34.2% |  1.4%
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| Independent |
|
7,202 | 1.7% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | 2,778 | 0.6% | 2.03%
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| Write-in | |||||
| Total votes | 428,817 | 100.00% | |||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
[edit]See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in South Dakota
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]Partisan clients
References
[edit]- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ "2024 Primary Election Candidate List". SD SOS. Retrieved May 22, 2024.
- ^ Coote, Darryl (June 5, 2024). "Biden, Trump snap up more primary victories as key congressional races decided". United Press International. Retrieved June 5, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
- ^ "October 2024 South Dakota Poll: Trump 62%, Harris 35%". Emerson College Polling. October 24, 2024.
- ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (February 2, 2024). "Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, and South Dakota 2024 Polls: Biden Underperforming Among Women and Young Voters". Emerson Polling.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (October 15, 2023). "South Dakota: Quarter of Residents think Gov. Noem Should be Trump's Running Mate". Emerson Polling.
- ^ Yost, Rae (October 27, 2022). "Trump defeats Biden in South Dakota in hypothetical 2024 race, poll shows". KELOLAND News.
- ^ Whitney, Stu (May 23, 2024). "Poll: Trump has sizable lead in South Dakota but shy of 2016 and 2020 numbers". South Dakota News Watch.
- ^ "The Green Papers: 2024 Presidential Candidate Ballot Access by State". The Green Papers. Retrieved September 24, 2024.
