2018 United States House of Representatives election in South Dakota
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  Johnson: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Bjorkman: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Tie: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in South Dakota |
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The 2018 United States House of Representatives election in South Dakota was held on November 6, to elect the U.S. representative for South Dakota's at-large congressional district. The election coincided with other statewide, legislative, and local elections.
Incumbent Republican U.S. Representative Kristi Noem did not run for a fifth term and instead ran successfully for Governor of South Dakota.[1] This is the first open seat election since 2004 and the first time a male candidate was elected since 2002. This was the last U.S. House election in South Dakota until 2024 that a Democrat appeared on the November ballot.
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Dusty Johnson, former chairman of the South Dakota Public Utilities Commission and former chief of staff to Governor Dennis Daugaard[2]
- Shantel Krebs, Secretary of State of South Dakota[2]
- Neal Tapio, state senator, businessman and former Trump campaign director for South Dakota.[3]
Declined
[edit]- Eric Terrell[4][5]
- Kristi Noem, incumbent U.S. Representative (running for governor)[1]
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Dusty Johnson |
Shantel Krebs |
Neal Tapio |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon[6] | May 21–23, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.5% | 41% | 23% | 13% | 23% |
Primary results
[edit]
Johnson
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
Krebs
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
Tapio
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Dusty Johnson | 47,032 | 46.8 | |
| Republican | Shantel Krebs | 29,442 | 29.3 | |
| Republican | Neal Tapio | 23,980 | 24.0 | |
| Total votes | 100,454 | 100 | ||
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Tim Bjorkman, former circuit court judge[7]
Failed to file
[edit]- Chris Martian, former IT professional[8]
Declined
[edit]- Shawn Bordeaux, state representative[9]
- Troy Heinert, state senator[9]
- J. R. LaPlante, former South Dakota Secretary of Tribal Relations and State House candidate in 2016[9]
- Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, former U.S. Representative[10][11]
- Mike Huether, Mayor of Sioux Falls (switched to Independent)[12]
- Brendan Johnson, former United States Attorney for the District of South Dakota[10]
- Billie Sutton, Minority Leader of the South Dakota Senate (running for governor)[13][14]
Libertarian nomination
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]Independents
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declined
[edit]- Mike Huether, Mayor of Sioux Falls[12][17][18]
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[19] | Solid R | June 1, 2018 |
| The Rothenberg Political Report[20] | Solid R | June 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[21] | Safe R | June 6, 2018 |
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Dusty Johnson (R) |
Tim Bjorkman (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D)[22] | November 2–4, 2018 | 851 | – | 51% | 41% | 5%[23] | – |
| Emerson College[24] | November 1–4, 2018 | 514 | ± 4.5% | 54% | 38% | – | 5% |
| Mason-Dixon[25] | October 18–22, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 54% | 31% | 3%[26] | 12% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R-Johnson)[27] | August 1–3 & 5, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 54% | 33% | – | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Bjorkman)[28] | July 19–20, 2018 | 641 | ± 3.9% | 43% | 33% | – | 14% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Dusty Johnson | 202,446 | 60.35% | −3.75% | |
| Democratic | Tim Bjorkman | 120,816 | 36.01% | +0.11% | |
| Independent | Ron Wieczorek | 7,313 | 2.18% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | George D. Hendrickson | 4,896 | 1.46% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 335,471 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
[edit]- Corson (Largest city: McLaughlin)
See also
[edit]
References
[edit]- ^ a b Ellis, Jonathan (November 14, 2016). "Noem announces historic bid for governor". Argus Leader. Retrieved November 15, 2016.
- ^ a b Pathé, Simone (November 15, 2016). "Who Could Run for Kristi Noem's At-Large Seat?". Roll Call. Retrieved November 15, 2016.
- ^ Ferguson, Dana (January 29, 2018). "Former Trump state campaign director Neal Tapio announces bid for U.S. House". Argus Leader.
- ^ Powers, Pat (May 20, 2017). "Man files Tennessee based Statement of Candidacy to run as Republican in South Dakota Congressional race?". South Dakota War College. Retrieved May 25, 2017.
- ^ Heidelberger, Cory (May 22, 2017). "SD Republican Among First Ten Bernie-Bloomer "Brand New Congress" Candidates to File". Dakota Free Press. Retrieved May 25, 2017.
- ^ Mason-Dixon
- ^ Strubinger, Lee (June 7, 2018). "Bjorkman Says There's Key Differences Between Him, Johnson". South Dakota Public Radio. Retrieved April 11, 2024.
- ^ Leischner, Mike (April 11, 2017). "Rapid City Democrat emerges as US House candidate". KELO. Archived from the original on April 14, 2017. Retrieved April 14, 2017.
- ^ a b c Hendershot, Evan (July 7, 2017). "Democratic town hall meeting sets the stage for possible campaign announcement". Mitchell Daily Republic. Archived from the original on August 6, 2017. Retrieved August 6, 2017.
- ^ a b Lawrence, Tom (November 22, 2016). "The 2018 campaign is underway". Black Hills Pioneer. Retrieved November 24, 2016.
- ^ Raposa, Megan (February 23, 2017). "Herseth Sandlin: 'I am done seeking political office'". Argus Leader. Retrieved April 1, 2017.
- ^ a b Anderson, Patrick (December 19, 2016). "Huether dumps Dems amid speculation of statewide run". Argus Leader. Retrieved April 1, 2017.
- ^ Ferguson, Dana (April 12, 2017). "SD Dems' director exits for 'statewide' campaign". Argus Leader. Retrieved April 13, 2017.
- ^ Ferguson, Dana (May 30, 2017). "Democrats, Sutton enter South Dakota governor race". Argus Leader. Retrieved May 31, 2017.
- ^ Ferguson, Dana (July 15, 2017). "Medical cannabis advocate, former police officer enters U.S. House race". Argus Leader. Retrieved July 16, 2017.
- ^ "2018 Candidates". January 8, 2018.
- ^ Sneve, Joe (March 7, 2017). "Huether moves hint at 2018 run". Argus Leader. Retrieved April 1, 2017.
- ^ Ferguson, Danielle; Sneve, Joe (June 22, 2017). "Mayor Mike Huether not seeking U.S. House seat". Argus Leader. Retrieved July 1, 2017.
- ^ "House Maps". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved June 7, 2018.
- ^ "South Dakota | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved June 7, 2018.
- ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 House". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved June 7, 2018.
- ^ Change Research (D)
- ^ Ron Wieczorek (I) with 3%, George Hendrickson (L) with 2%
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Mason-Dixon
- ^ Ron Wieczorek (I) with 2%, George Hendrickson (L) with 1%
- ^ Public Opinion Strategies (R-Johnson) [permanent dead link]
- ^ Public Policy Polling (D-Bjorkman)
- ^ Johnson, Cheryl L. (February 28, 2019). "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 6, 2018". Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives. Retrieved April 27, 2019.
External links
[edit]- Candidates at Vote Smart
- Candidates at Ballotpedia
- Campaign finance at FEC
- Campaign finance at OpenSecrets
Official campaign websites
- Tim Bjorkman (D) for Congress
- George Hendrickson (L) for Congress Archived January 3, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
- Dusty Johnson (R) for Congress
- Ron Wieczorek (I) for Congress Archived August 28, 2018, at the Wayback Machine