2018 United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota

2018 United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota's at-large district

November 6, 2018

Nominee Kelly Armstrong Mac Schneider Party Republican Democratic–NPL Popular vote 193,568 114,377 Percentage 60.2% 35.6%

County results Armstrong:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90% Schneider:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%

U.S. Representative before election Kevin Cramer Republican Elected U.S. Representative Kelly Armstrong Republican

The 2018 United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota was held on November 6, 2018, to elect the U.S. representative for North Dakota's at-large congressional district. The election coincided with the U.S. Senate election, as well as other statewide, legislative, and local elections.

Though incumbent Republican U.S. Representative Kevin Cramer announced on January 11, 2018, he will run for re-election to a fourth term, he later indicated an intention to run for the United States Senate instead. On February 16, 2018, Cramer announced his Senate campaign.

Republican primary

State Senator Tom Campbell has stated he intends to run for the U.S. Senate if Cramer runs for re-election and to run for the U.S. House if Cramer does not run for re-election. Campbell declared for the seat following Cramer's run for Senate. However, on April 11, Campbell dropped out of the race to endorse Armstrong.

Candidates

Nominated

• Kelly Armstrong, state senator

Declared

• Tiffany Abentroth, U.S. Marine Corps veteran
• Paul Schaffner, oil field employee

Withdrew

• Tom Campbell, state senator

Declined

• Kevin Cramer, incumbent U.S. Representative (running for U.S. Senate)
• Gary Emineth, former chairman of the North Dakota Republican Party

Polling

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tiffany Abentroth	Kelly Armstrong	Tom Campbell	Julie Fedorchak	DuWayne Hendrickson	Undecided
Gravis Marketing	February 21–24, 2018	385	± 5.0%	1%	13%	28%	9%	1%	47%

Results

Results by county:

  Armstrong—80–90%

  Armstrong—70–80%

  Armstrong—60–70%

  Armstrong—50–60%

  Armstrong—40–50%

  Abentroth—30–40%

Republican primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Kelly Armstrong	37,054	56.23
	Republican	Tom Campbell (withdrawn)	17,692	26.85
	Republican	Tiffany Abentroth	5,877	8.92
	Republican	Paul Schaffner	5,203	7.90
	Republican	Write-Ins	75	0.11
Total votes			65,901	100.00

Democratic-NPL primary

The Democratic-NPL Party held their state convention March 16 and 17, during which delegates voted to endorse Mac Schneider. Although general election ballot access is actually controlled by a primary election to be held June 12, both other candidates decided to withdraw from the race, rather than challenge Schneider in the primary.

Candidates

Endorsed

• Mac Schneider, former Minority Leader of the North Dakota Senate

Withdrawn

• Ben Hanson, former state representative
• John Grabinger, state senator

Results

Results by county:

  Schneider—100%

  Schneider—≥90%

Democratic primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic–NPL	Mac Schneider	33,545	99.78
	Democratic–NPL	Write-Ins	74	0.22
Total votes			33,619	100.00

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Solid R	June 1, 2018
The Rothenberg Political Report	Solid R	June 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe R	June 6, 2018

Debates

Host network/sponsors	Date	Link(s)	Participants
			Mac Schneider (D)	Kelly Armstrong (R)
KFYR-TV	August 16, 2018		Invited	Invited
Prairie Public	September 11, 2018		Invited	Invited
KFGO	September 19, 2018		Invited	Invited

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kelly Armstrong (R)	Mac Schneider (D)	Other	Undecided
FOX News	October 27–30, 2018	789 LV	± 3.0%	55%	33%	2%	10%
		851 RV	± 3.0%	52%	32%	3%	12%
Strategic Research Associates	October 12–19, 2018	650	± 3.8%	56%	35%	–	9%
FOX News	September 29 – October 2, 2018	704 LV	± 3.5%	51%	34%	2%	12%
		801 V	± 3.5%	49%	33%	2%	14%
Strategic Research Associates	September 17–27, 2018	650	± 3.8%	55%	31%	–	14%
FOX News	September 8–11, 2018	701 LV	± 3.5%	48%	34%	2%	15%
		804 V	± 3.5%	47%	32%	2%	17%
Axis Research (R-Armstrong)	August 26–28, 2018	506	± 4.5%	53%	32%	–	15%
Mason-Dixon	June 13–15, 2018	625	± 4.0%	46%	35%	–	19%
Axis Research (R-Armstrong)	May 13–14, 2018	509	± 4.5%	48%	26%	–	26%

Results

North Dakota's at-large congressional district, 2018

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Kelly Armstrong	193,568	60.20%	−8.93%
	Democratic–NPL	Mac Schneider	114,377	35.57%	+11.82%
	Independent	Charles Tuttle	13,066	4.06%	N/A
	n/a	Write-ins	521	0.16%	N/A
Total votes			321,532	100.0%	N/A
	Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Cass (largest city: Fargo)
• Grand Forks (largest city: Grand Forks)
• Benson (Largest CDP: Fort Totten)
• Ransom (Largest city: Lisbon)
• Steele (Largest city: Finley)

External links

• Candidates at Vote Smart
• Candidates at Ballotpedia
• Campaign finance at FEC
• Campaign finance at OpenSecrets

Official campaign websites

• Kelly Armstrong (R) for Congress
• Mac Schneider (D) for Congress