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2018 United States Senate election in Massachusetts

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For related races, see 2018 United States Senate elections.

2018 United States Senate election in Massachusetts
← 2012 November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06) 2024 →
Turnout59.17%
 
Nominee Elizabeth Warren Geoff Diehl
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,633,371 979,210
Percentage 60.34% 36.17%
Warren:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Diehl:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Tie:      40–50%
U.S. senator before election

Elizabeth Warren
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Elizabeth Warren
Democratic

Elections in
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flag Massachusetts portal

The 2018 United States Senate election in Massachusetts took place on November 6, 2018. Incumbent Democratic U.S. senator Elizabeth Warren ran for re-election to a second term. The candidate filing deadline was June 5, 2018, and the primary election was held on September 4, 2018.[1]

Warren won re-election, defeating her Republican opponent, Geoff Diehl.[2]

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominated

[edit]

Results

[edit]
United States Senate Democratic primary in Massachusetts results by county, 2018:
  Warren—≥90%
Democratic primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Elizabeth Warren (incumbent) 590,835 98.08%
Write-in 11,558 1.92%
Total votes 602,393 100.00%

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominated

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Eliminated at convention

[edit]
  • Darius Mitchell[9]
  • Heidi Wellman[10]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Beth Lindstrom

Governors

State legislators

Local officials

Organizations

Newspapers

John Kingston

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Geoff
Diehl 		John
Kingston 		Beth
Lindstrom 		Other Undecided
MassINC[43] June 22–25, 2018 399 ± 4.9% 26% 12% 15% 5% 41%

Results

[edit]

Overall

[edit]
Massachusetts United States Senate Republican primary results by municipality, 2018
Republican primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Geoff Diehl 144,043 55.15%
Republican John Kingston 69,636 26.66%
Republican Beth Lindstrom 46,693 17.88%
Write-in 798 0.31%
Total votes 261,170 100.00%

By county

[edit]
Massachusetts United States Senate Republican primary results by county, 2018:
  Diehl—70–80%
  Diehl—60–70%
  Diehl—50–60%
  Diehl—40–50%
  Kingston—40–50%

Results by county. Red represents counties won by Diehl. Teal represents counties won by Kingston.

County Diehl
% 		Diehl
votes 		Kingston
% 		Kingston
votes 		Lindstrom
% 		Lindstrom
votes
Barnstable 57.0% 10,761 24.2% 4,573 18.6% 3,513
Berkshire 47.9% 1,221 37.8% 965 13.8% 352
Bristol 61.8% 11,005 23.0% 4,095 15.0% 2,669
Dukes 55.2% 347 25.9% 163 18.9% 119
Essex 53.1% 17,716 28.3% 9,428 18.3% 6,104
Franklin 41.8% 938 42.3% 949 15.3% 343
Hampden 50.5% 7,491 34.0% 5,048 15.0% 2,225
Hampshire 45.7% 1,967 36.7% 1,579 16.9% 725
Middlesex 52.5% 29,084 26.8% 14,852 20.3% 11,218
Nantucket 50.1% 168 29.6% 99 20.3% 68
Norfolk 58.9% 18,749 22.0% 7,009 18.8% 5,992
Plymouth 70.1% 23,242 19.8% 6,549 10.0% 3,316
Suffolk 53.5% 4,792 27.6% 2,471 18.2% 1,628
Worcester 44.8% 16,562 32.1% 11,856 22.8% 8,421
Total 55.2% 144,043 26.7% 69,636 17.9% 46,693

Libertarian primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Independents

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

General election

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Elizabeth Warren (D)

State officials

Newspapers

Organizations

Geoff Diehl (R)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

Governors

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Newspapers

Shiva Ayyadurai (I)

Individuals

Newspapers

Debates

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[119] Safe D September 28, 2018
Inside Elections[120] Safe D September 29, 2017
Sabato's Crystal Ball[121] Safe D September 27, 2017
Fox News[122] Likely D July 9, 2018
CNN[123] Safe D July 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics[124] Safe D May 26, 2018

^Highest rating they assert

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Geoff
Diehl (R) 		Shiva
Ayyadurai (I) 		Other Undecided
MassINC[125] October 25–28, 2018 502 ± 4.4% 54% 32% 6% 3% 3%
Suffolk University[126] October 24–28, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 56% 34% 4% – 5%
Western New England University[127] October 10–27, 2018 402 LV ± 5.0% 57% 27% 7% – 8%
485 RV ± 4.0% 54% 27% 6% – 12%
UMass Lowell[128] October 1–7, 2018 485 LV ± 5.6% 56% 31% 8% 3% 2%
791 RV ± 4.4% 56% 28% 9% 4% 1%
MassINC[129] September 17–21, 2018 506 ± 4.4% 56% 30% 5% 1% 6%
Suffolk University[130] September 13–17, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 54% 24% 6% – 16%
Suffolk University[131] June 8–12, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 55% 33% – – 11%
MassINC[132] May 22–26, 2018 501 ± 4.4% 54% 19% 8% 1% 15%
MassINC[133] March 16–18, 2018 504 ± 4.4% 55% 20% 9% 1% 13%
MassINC[134] November 9–12, 2017 503 ± 4.4% 58% 32% – 3% 7%
MassINC[135] June 19–22, 2017 504 ± 4.4% 60% 29% – 1% 8%
Hypothetical polling

with Beth Lindstrom

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Beth
Lindstrom (R) 		Shiva
Ayyadurai (I) 		Other Undecided
Suffolk University[136] June 8–12, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 56% 31% – – 13%
MassINC[132] May 22–26, 2018 501 ± 4.4% 55% 19% 7% 2% 15%
MassINC[133] March 16–18, 2018 504 ± 4.4% 53% 19% 9% 1% 14%
MassINC[134] November 9–12, 2017 504 ± 4.4% 56% 33% – 3% 8%

with John Kingston

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		John
Kingston (R) 		Shiva
Ayyadurai (I) 		Other Undecided
Suffolk University[137] June 8–12, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 54% 30% – – 15%
MassINC[132] May 22–26, 2018 501 ± 4.4% 56% 19% 8% 1% 14%
MassINC[133] March 16–18, 2018 504 ± 4.4% 53% 19% 7% 2% 12%
MassINC[134] November 9–12, 2017 504 ± 4.4% 57% 33% – 2% 7%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Karyn
Polito (R) 		Mitt
Romney (R) 		Richard
Tisei (R) 		Other Undecided
UMass Amherst[138] September 15–20, 2016 ≈450 ± 4.1% 40% 36% – – 5% 19%
44% – 31% – 10% 15%
39% – – 32% 3% 26%

with Shiva Ayyadurai running as Republican

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Shiva
Ayyadurai (R) 		Other Undecided
MassINC[134] November 9–12, 2017 504 ± 4.4% 58% 27% 4% 10%
MassINC[135] June 19–22, 2017 504 ± 4.4% 61% 25% 2% 9%

with Curt Schilling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Curt
Schilling (R) 		Other Undecided
Suffolk University[139] October 24–26, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 58% 24% 2% 16%
UMass Amherst[138] September 15–20, 2016 ≈450 ± 4.1% 47% 28% 9% 16%
MassINC[140] September 7–10, 2016 506 ± 4.4% 54% 29% 3% 15%

with William Weld

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		William
Weld (L) 		Other Undecided
UMass Amherst[138] September 15–20, 2016 ≈450 ± 4.1% 40% 37% 8% 16%

Results

[edit]
United States Senate election in Massachusetts, 2018[141]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Elizabeth Warren (incumbent) 1,633,371 60.34% +6.60%
Republican Geoff Diehl 979,210 36.17% −10.02%
Independent Shiva Ayyadurai 91,710 3.39% N/A
Write-in 2,799 0.10% N/A
Total votes 2,707,090 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Warren won all of the state’s congressional districts.[142]

District Diehl Warren Representative
1st 37.34% 58.95% Richard Neal
2nd 39.07% 57.01% Jim McGovern
3rd 38.56% 57.51% Niki Tsongas (115th Congress)
Lori Trahan (116th Congress)
4th 38.45% 58.19% Joe Kennedy III
5th 27.82% 68.91% Katherine Clark
6th 41.21% 54.98% Seth Moulton
7th 13.15% 84.51% Michael Capuano (115th Congress)
Ayanna Pressley (116th Congress)
8th 39.45% 57.65% Stephen Lynch
9th 45.67% 51.13% Bill Keating

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "United States Senate election in Massachusetts, 2018 – Ballotpedia". Retrieved March 3, 2017.
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  81. ^ "Diehl Endorsed by Sheriff Cummings". CapeCod.com. July 25, 2018.
  82. ^ "EVANGELIDIS ENDORSES DIEHL". Diehl for Senate. September 27, 2018. Archived from the original on October 17, 2018. Retrieved October 29, 2018.
  83. ^ Geoff Diehl. "Thrilled to have the endorsement of Weymouth @MayorBobHedlund! Remember to vote Geoff Diehl for U.S. Senate on Tuesday, September 4. #TheRealDiehl #mapoli #masen #masen2018 #magop". Twitter.
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  88. ^ Geoff Diehl. "Melrose Alderman Monica Medeiros endorses Geoff Diehl for U.S. Senate!". Facebook.
  89. ^ Geoff Diehl. "Thank you to #Hanson Board of Selectman Chair Ken Mitchell for your endorsement. Together we will put our communities and all of #MassachusettsFirst! #mapoli #masen #masen2018 #magop". Twitter.
  90. ^ Battenfeld, Joe (August 15, 2018). "Herman Cain reappears in support of Diehl's 'long shot' bid [+audio]". Boston Herald.
  91. ^ Howie Carr. "Good morning everyone! Big day today. Don't forget to vote for Geoff Diehl. @DiehlForSenate". Twitter.
  92. ^ "New Bedford's Constantine Endorses Diehl". Diehl for Senate. September 18, 2018. Archived from the original on October 18, 2018. Retrieved October 29, 2018.
  93. ^ "Larry Ellison Endorses Geoff Diehl". Diehl for Senate. October 29, 2018.[permanent dead link‍]
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  95. ^ "DIEHL WINS BIG ENDORSEMENT: Malone Endorses Diehl". Diehl for Senate. August 31, 2018. Archived from the original on October 6, 2018. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  96. ^ "Captain Dave Endorses Diehl for Senate". Diehl for Senate. August 28, 2018. Archived from the original on October 6, 2018. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
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  110. ^ Geoff Diehl. "BREAKING: I am proud to have earned the endorsement of the @NRA – National Rifle Association of America ahead of our Tuesday Primary. I'll always stand with law-abiding gun owners to protect our #2A #mapoli #masen #masen2018 #magop". Twitter.
  111. ^ "Worcester police union backs Republican Geoff Diehl for U.S. Senate". Worcester Magazine. September 26, 2018.
  112. ^ "DIEHL WINS BIG ENDORSEMENT". Diehl for Senate. August 27, 2018. Archived from the original on October 6, 2018. Retrieved August 28, 2018.
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  115. ^ "Fake Indian, Meet Real Indian". December 3, 2017.
  116. ^ "Schilling Endorses 'My Choice' for Senate, and it Isn't Him". RollCall. March 6, 2017. Archived from the original on October 23, 2018. Retrieved October 23, 2018.
  117. ^ "Dr Shiva Ayyadurai on the Hypocrisy of the Establishment Elites". YouTube. December 30, 2017. Retrieved December 30, 2017.
  118. ^ "New GOP option for Warren's seat breaks old mold". The Lowell Sun. April 7, 2017. Retrieved October 23, 2018.
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  123. ^ "Key Races: Senate". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  124. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2018". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  125. ^ MassINC
  126. ^ Suffolk University
  127. ^ Western New England University
  128. ^ UMass Lowell
  129. ^ MassINC
  130. ^ Suffolk University Archived September 20, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  131. ^ Suffolk University Archived June 15, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  132. ^ a b c MassINC
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  136. ^ Suffolk University Archived June 15, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
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  138. ^ a b c UMass Amherst
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  140. ^ MassINC
  141. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). www.sec.state.ma.us. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 29, 2018. Retrieved January 11, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  142. ^ "Daily Kos".
[edit]

Official campaign websites

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