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2012 United States Senate election in Massachusetts

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2012 United States Senate election in Massachusetts
← 2010 (special) November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06) 2018 →
 
Nominee Elizabeth Warren Scott Brown
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,696,346 1,458,048
Percentage 53.74% 46.19%
Warren:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Brown:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Tie:      40–50%
U.S. senator before election

Scott Brown
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Elizabeth Warren
Democratic

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The 2012 United States Senate election in Massachusetts was held in Massachusetts on November 6, 2012, Democrat Elizabeth Warren defeated incumbent Republican Senator Scott Brown. This election was held concurrently with the U.S. presidential election and elections to the U.S. Senate in other states, as well as elections to the House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Brown ran for re-election to a first full term. He had been elected in a special election in 2010 following the death of incumbent Democratic senator Ted Kennedy. Brown was unopposed in the Republican primary. For the Democrats, an initial wide field of prospective candidates narrowed after the entry of Harvard Law School professor Elizabeth Warren, the architect of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Warren clinched near-unanimous party support, with all but one of the other Democratic candidates withdrawing following her entrance. After winning her party's nomination, she faced Brown in the general election.

The election was one of the most-followed races in 2012 and cost approximately $82 million, which made it the most expensive election in Massachusetts history and the second-most expensive in the entire 2012 election cycle, next to the presidential race; this was despite the two candidates' having agreed not to allow outside money to influence the race. Opinion polling indicated a close race for much of the campaign, though Warren opened up a small but consistent lead in the final few weeks. She went on to defeat Brown by over 236,000 votes, 54% to 46%. Despite his loss, Brown received 8.6% more of the state vote than Republican former governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney did in the concurrent presidential election. Brown was the only incumbent senator to lose a general election in 2012. He later moved to New Hampshire where he ran for U.S. Senate and lost in 2014.

Background

[edit]

Democratic U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy was re-elected in 2006, and died on August 25, 2009, from a malignant brain tumor.[1] On September 24, 2009, Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick appointed longtime friend of Kennedy and former Democratic National Committee chairman Paul G. Kirk to succeed Kennedy until a special election could be held.[2] Kirk's appointment was especially controversial, as the governor's ability to appoint an interim senator was removed during the Romney administration by the Democratic-controlled legislature, as a precaution if senator and presidential nominee John Kerry was elected president in 2004. Laws surrounding Senate appointment were quickly changed following Kennedy's death.[3] The Massachusetts Republican Party sued in an attempt to halt Kirk's appointment, but it was rejected by Suffolk Superior Court Judge Thomas Connolly.[4]

In the special election held on January 19, 2010, Republican state senator Scott Brown defeated Democratic state attorney general Martha Coakley in an upset victory.[5] Brown thus became the first Republican to be elected from Massachusetts to the United States Senate since Edward Brooke in 1972, and he began serving the remainder of Kennedy's term on February 4, 2010.[6][7]

Republican primary

[edit]

The National Republican Trust PAC, a group integral to Brown's 2010 election, vowed to draft a conservative opponent, citing dissatisfaction with his vote in support of the New START nuclear arms treaty.[8] However, Brown went unopposed in the Republican primary.

Candidates

[edit]

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Scott
Brown 		More conservative
challenger 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[10] September 16–18, 2011 255 ±6.1% 70% 21% — 9%

Results

[edit]
Republican primary results[11]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Scott Brown (incumbent) 133,860 99.46
Republican Write-ins 733 0.54
Total votes 134,593 100.00

Democratic primary

[edit]

The Massachusetts Democratic Convention was held on June 2, 2012, where Warren received 95.77% of delegate votes.[12] As the only candidate with 15% of delegate votes necessary to qualify for the primary ballot, Warren eliminated her challenger Marisa DeFranco, becoming the de facto nominee. The Democratic primary was held on September 6, 2012, with Warren running unopposed.[13]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Tom
Conroy 		Marisa
DeFranco 		Jim
King 		Alan
Khazei 		Bob
Massie 		Herb
Robinson 		Elizabeth
Warren 		Setti
Warren 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[34] September 16–18, 2011 461 ±4.6% 7% 2% — 9% 2% 1% 55% 1% — 22%
UMass Lowell[35] September 22–28, 2011 1,005 ±3.8% 5% 4% — 3% 3% 1% 36% 3% 1% 32%
YouGov for UMass Amherst[36] November 9–22, 2011 122 ±4.6% 7% 6% — — — 2% 73% — 13% —
Suffolk University/7NEWS[37] February 11–15, 2012 218 ±?% — 5% 1% — — — 72% — — 20%
Suffolk University/7NEWS[38] May 20–22, 2012 284 ±?% — 6% — — — — 71% — — 12%

Results

[edit]
Democratic convention vote[12]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Elizabeth Warren 3,352 95.77
Democratic Marisa DeFranco 148 4.23
Total votes 3,500 100.00
Democratic primary vote[39]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Elizabeth Warren 308,979 97.59
Democratic Write-ins 7,638 2.41
Total votes 316,617 100.00

General election

[edit]

Campaign

[edit]

On September 14, 2011, Warren declared her intention to run for the Democratic nomination for the 2012 election in Massachusetts for the United States Senate. The seat had been won by Republican Scott Brown in a 2010 special election after the death of Ted Kennedy.[40][41]

Warren won the Democratic nomination on June 2, 2012, at the state Democratic convention with a record 95.77% of the votes of delegates.[12] She was endorsed by the Governor of Massachusetts, Deval Patrick.[42] Warren and her opponent Scott Brown agreed to engage in four televised debates, including one with a consortium of media outlets in Springfield and one on WBZ-TV in Boston.[43]

Brown campaigning in his truck

Brown ran as a moderate, stressing his ability to cross party lines and highlighting his votes for the Dodd-Frank financial reform law and to repeal "don't ask, don't tell".[44] Warren campaigned on a platform championing the middle class, and supporting Wall Street regulation. Warren criticized Brown for continually voting with Republican leadership, and argued that he was not the bipartisan moderate he claimed to be.[45][46] A staple of Brown's attack tactics against Warren was his consistent reference to her as "Professor Warren", in attempt to portray her as an elitist academic.[47] Brown faced blowback after the second debate, during which he claimed conservative Antonin Scalia was a "model" Supreme Court Justice, prompting boos from the debate audience.[48]

Warren spoke at the 2012 Democratic National Convention immediately before Bill Clinton on the penultimate night of the convention. Warren contrasted President Obama's economic plan with Mitt Romney's in the 2012 election and rebuked the Republican Party's economic policy stating: "Their vision is clear: 'I've got mine, and the rest of you are on your own.'" Warren positioned herself as a champion of a beleaguered middle class that, as she said, "has been chipped, squeezed and hammered."[49][50][51] According to Warren, "People feel like the system is rigged against them. And here's the painful part: They're right. The system is rigged." Warren said that Wall Street CEOs "wrecked our economy and destroyed millions of jobs" and that they "still strut around congress, no shame, demanding favors, and acting like we should thank them."[52][53][54] Brown attended the 2012 Republican National Convention, but was not a speaker there. According to Brown, he had rejected an offer to play a larger role, and limited his attendance to a single day because of scheduling demands.[55][56]

Following Todd Akin's controversial "legitimate rape" comments, Brown was the first sitting senator to demand he drop out of the Missouri U.S. Senate race.[57] He also called on his party to "recognize in its platform that you can be pro-choice and still be a good Republican."[57] Brown's campaign had been endorsed by many Massachusetts Democrats, many of whom were prominently featured in his campaign ads.[58]

Warren campaigning with retiring Congressman Barney Frank (right) and his eventual successor, Joe Kennedy III (left)

In September 2011, a video of Warren explaining her approach to economic policy gained popularity on the internet.[59] In the video, Warren rebuts the charge that asking the rich to pay more taxes is "class warfare", pointing out that no one grew rich in America without depending on infrastructure paid for by the rest of society, stating:[60][61]

There is nobody in this country who got rich on his own. Nobody.  ... You moved your goods to market on the roads the rest of us paid for; you hired workers the rest of us paid to educate; you were safe in your factory because of police forces and fire forces that the rest of us paid for. You didn't have to worry that marauding bands would come and seize everything at your factory, and hire someone to protect against this, because of the work the rest of us did. Now look, you built a factory and it turned into something terrific, or a great idea. God bless. Keep a big hunk of it. But part of the underlying social contract is, you take a hunk of that and pay forward for the next kid who comes along.

On July 13, 2012, President Obama sparked a controversy when he echoed her thoughts[62][63] in a campaign speech saying, "Somebody helped to create this unbelievable American system that we have that allowed you to thrive. Somebody invested in roads and bridges. If you've got a business—you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."[64][65]

Warren at a campaign event, November 2012

Warren encountered significant opposition from business interests. In August 2012, Rob Engstrom, political director for the United States Chamber of Commerce, claimed that "no other candidate in 2012 represents a greater threat to free enterprise than Professor Warren."[66] She nonetheless raised $39 million for her campaign, the most of any Senate candidate in 2012.[67]

Results by municipality

Native American ancestry controversy

[edit]

In April 2012, the Boston Herald sparked an election controversy when it drew attention to Warren's Association of American Law Schools (AALS) directory entries from 1986 to 1995, which listed her as a minority professor.[68] According to the AALS, the directory was compiled by information supplied by law school deans, based on questionnaires filled out by individual teachers.[69] Warren stated that she had self-identified as having Native American ancestry in order to meet others with a similar background.[70] Harvard Law School had listed her as a minority professor in response to criticisms about a lack of faculty diversity, but Warren said that she was unaware of this until she read about it in a newspaper during the 2012 election.[68][69][71]

Her opponent Scott Brown speculated that she had fabricated a native ancestry to gain an advantage in the employment market; the Brown campaign used Warren's lineage in several attack ads.[72][73][74] In response, Warren's brothers issued a joint statement stating that they "grew up listening to our mother and grandmother and other relatives talk about our family's Cherokee and Delaware heritage".[75][76] Brian Leiter of the Chicago Law School dismissed the allegations against Warren, noting that law schools have "no pressure to hire Native Americans for affirmative action reasons", and that Warren's record of scholarship was "clearly sufficient to get her appointed at Harvard".[77] Several Brown staffers mocked Warren by doing the "tomahawk chop" at a Brown campaign rally, which Brown said he did not condone.[78]

According to the New England Historical Genealogical Society, several members of Warren's maternal family claim Cherokee heritage;[79] the society found a family newsletter that alluded to a marriage license application that listed Elizabeth Warren's great-great-great-grandmother as a Cherokee, but could not find the primary document and found no proof of Warren's Native American heritage.[74][80] Some members of the Cherokee Nation protested her claim to Native American ancestry and questioned whether she benefitted from it.[81][82] Former colleagues and supervisors at the universities where she had worked (including Charles Fried, former Solicitor General under President Ronald Reagan) said Warren's ancestry was either not mentioned, or played no role in her hiring.[69][71][74][83]

The question of Warren's ancestry was pressed by the Brown campaign throughout the election. However, polls showed that most voters said that the controversy would not impact their vote in the election.[84] Warren's 2014 autobiography devoted a section to the allegations, describing them as untrue and hurtful.[85] In 2018, Warren released the results of a DNA test that strongly suggests that she had a Native American ancestor six to ten generations ago, and suggests Warren is between 1/64th and 1/1,024th Native American.[86]

Endorsements

[edit]
Scott Brown

Politicians

Labor unions

Military

Newspapers

Individuals

Organizations

Rescinded

Elizabeth Warren

Politicians

Labor unions

Newspapers

Individuals

Organizations

Debates

[edit]

Both candidates agreed to four televised debates, three of which were held. The candidates agreed to a fourth debate which was to be held on October 30 in WGBH-TV's studio, hosted by a Boston mediaB consortium, and moderated by John King, but the day before both pulled out due to Hurricane Sandy.[217][218] Victoria Kennedy, widow of Ted Kennedy, had proposed an additional debate with Tom Brokaw as moderator, but Brown would only accept the invitation if she pledged not to endorse Brown's opponent, which she refused.[219][220]

Debate 1: September 20 at WBZ-TV studio, hosted by WBZ and WBZ Newsradio 1030. Moderated by the station's political reporter Jon Keller.[221][222]

Debate 2: October 1 at UMass Lowell, co-hosted by UMass and The Boston Herald. Moderated by David Gregory.[223]

Debate 3: October 10 at Springfield Symphony Hall, hosted by a Western MassachusettsA consortium. Moderated by WGBY-TV's Jim Madigan.[224]

Fundraising

[edit]

The election cost approximately $82 million, making it the most expensive election in Massachusetts' history and of any Congressional race in history up to that point, as well as the second-most expensive election in the 2012 election cycle, behind only the 2012 presidential election.[225][226]

The People's Pledge

[edit]

Both Warren and Brown stated early in the race that they would not accept television advertisement assistance from Super PACs and interest groups. On January 23, 2012, both candidates signed the agreement, or People's Pledge. While no outside groups were obligated by the agreement, both candidates agreed to donate a sum equal to 50% of an advertisement run by any groups to a charity of the other candidate's choice.[227] The pledge was broken twice, by Brown supporters. In March the American Petroleum Institute and Coalition of Americans for Political Equality launched ads supporting Brown, and as a result, the Brown campaign agreed to make donations of $1,000 and $34,545, respectively, to the charity of Warren's choice: the Autism Consortium.[228][229]

Top donors

[edit]

Contributions by affiliationC
Source: OpenSecrets 2012

Scott Brown Elizabeth Warren
Contributor Contribution Contributor Contribution
Fidelity Investments $289,455 EMILY's List $507,095
EMC Corporation $169,800 Moveon.org $448,517
Goldman Sachs $119,400 Harvard University $304,050
VoteSane PAC $113,250 MIT $77,200
State Street Corp $106,650 Boston University $73,700
MassMutual $106,198 Brown Rudnick LLP $68,077
Raytheon $89,350 University of California $63,600
Liberty Mutual $85,500 League of Conservation Voters $54,551
JPMorgan Chase $80,855 Ropes & Gray $52,950
PricewaterhouseCoopers $79,800 Thornton & Naumes $44,450

Contributions by industry
Source: OpenSecrets 2012

Scott Brown Elizabeth Warren
Industry Contribution Industry Contribution
Retired $3,574,088 Retired $3,374,569
Securities & Investment $3,370,618 Lawyers/Law Firms $2,196,972
Lawyers/Law Firms $1,332,582 Women's Issues $1,588,383
Real Estate $1,192,258 Education $1,335,058
Insurance $914,504 Democratic/Liberal $1,253,375
Health Professionals $877,878 Securities & Investment $534,275
Misc Finance $828,501 TV/Movies/Music $476,814
Business Services $661,647 Health Professionals $456,006
Computer industry/Internet $637,825 Business Services $455,291
Republican/Conservative $616,158 Printing & Publishing $387,031

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[230] Tossup November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[231] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report[232] Tilt D (flip) November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[233] Tossup November 5, 2012

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Scott
Brown (R) 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Other Undecided
W. New England U.[234] March 6–10, 2011 472 RV ±4.5% 51% 34% — 14%
Public Policy Polling[235] June 2–5, 2011 957 RV ±3.2% 47% 32% — 21%
WBUR MassInc[236] August 30 – September 1, 2011 500 ±4.4% 44% 35% 2% 19%
Public Policy Polling[237] September 16–18, 2011 957 RV ±3.2% 44% 46% — 10%
UMass Lowell[238] September 22–28, 2011 1,005 RV ±3.8% 41% 38% 3% 14%
W. New England U.[239] September 29 – October 5, 2011 475 RV ±4.5% 47% 42% — 10%
YouGov[240] for UMass Amherst November 9–22, 2011 433 RV ±4.4% 39% 43% 4% 14%
UMass Lowell /Boston Herald[241] December 1–6, 2011 505 RV ±5.3% 42% 49% 3% 6%
Opinion Dynamics[242] for Mass Insight January 31 – February 4, 2012 456 RV ±4.6% 52% 42% — 6%
MassINC[243] for WBUR February 6–9, 2012 505 LV ±4.4% 43% 46% 1% 11%
Suffolk/WHDH[244] February 11–15, 2012 600 LV ±4% 49% 40% 2% 9%
Rasmussen Reports[245] February 29, 2012 500 LV ±4.5% 49% 44% 2% 5%
W. New England U.[246] February 23 – March 1, 2012 527 RV ±4.3% 49% 41% — 10%
Public Policy Polling[247] March 16–18, 2012 936 RV ±3.2% 41% 46% — 13%
Boston Globe[248] March 21–27, 2012 544 LV ±4.2% 37% 35% — 26%
Rasmussen Reports[249] April 9, 2012 500 LV ±4.5% 45% 46% 1% 8%
MassINC[250] for MassLive April 25–28, 2012 438 LV ±4.7% 41% 43% 1% 12%
Rasmussen Reports[251] May 7, 2012 500 LV ±4.5% 45% 45% 2% 8%
Suffolk/WHDH[252] May 20–22, 2012 600 LV ±4% 48% 47% — 5%
Boston Globe[253] May 25–31, 2012 651 LV ±3.8% 39% 37% 2% 23%
W. New England U.[254] May 29–31, 2012 504 RV ±4.4% 43% 45% — 11%
Public Policy Polling[255] June 22–24, 2012 902 RV ±3.3% 46% 46% — 8%
MassINC[256] July 19–22, 2012 445 RV ±4.4% 38% 40% — 16%
Public Policy Polling[257] August 16–19, 2012 1,115 LV ±4.4% 49% 44% — 8%
Kimball Political Consulting[258] August 21, 2012 1,500 RV ±4% 49% 43% — 9%
Kimball Political Consulting[259] September 7–9, 2012 756 LV ±3.5% 46% 45% — 9%
W. New England U.[260] September 6–13, 2012 444 LV ±4.6% 44% 50% — 6%
Public Policy Polling[261] September 13–16, 2012 876 LV ±3.3% 46% 48% — 6%
Suffolk/WHDH[262] September 13–16, 2012 600 LV ±4% 44% 48% — 8%
UMass Lowell /Boston Herald[263] September 13–17, 2012 497 LV ±4% 49% 45% 1% 4%
MassINC[264] for WBUR September 15–17, 2012 507 LV ±4.4% 40% 45% 2% 12%
Kimball Political Consulting[265] September 20, 2012 868 LV ±3.25% 48% 47% 1% 3%
UMass Lowell /Boston Herald[266] September 20, 2012 524 RV ±5.3% 50% 44% 1% 5%
Rasmussen Reports[267] September 24, 2012 500 LV ±4.5% 48% 48% — 5%
Boston Globe[268] September 21–27, 2012 502 LV ±4.4% 38% 43% 1% 18%
WBUR[269] September 26–28, 2012 504 LV ±4.4% 45% 49% 1% 6%
Opinion Dynamics[270] for Mass Insight September 25–30, 2012 329 LV ±5.4% 44% 48% — 8%
W. New England U.[271] September 28 – October 4, 2012 440 LV ±4.3% 45% 50% — 5%
MassINC[272] for WBUR October 5–7, 2012 501 LV ±4.4% 48% 45% 1% 8%
YouGov[273] for UMass Amherst October 2–8, 2012 436 LV ±5.4% 45% 48% — 6%
Rasmussen Reports[274] October 10, 2012 500 LV ±4.5% 47% 49% — 4%
YouGov[275] October 4–11, 2012 669 LV ±4.9% 39% 46% — 15%
Public Policy Polling[276] October 9–11, 2012 1,051 LV ±3% 44% 50% — 6%
Public Policy Polling[277] for the LCV October 15–16, 2012 709 LV ±3.5% 44% 53% — —
Kimball Political Consulting[278] October 18–21, 2012 761 LV ±3.5% 45% 48% — 7%
MassINC[279] for WBUR October 21–22, 2012 516 LV ±4.4% 44% 50% 1% 4%
Rasmussen Reports[280] October 25, 2012 500 LV ±4.5% 47% 52% — —
Boston Globe[281] October 24–28, 2012 583 LV ±4.1% 47% 47% — 6%
Suffolk/WHDH[282] October 25–28, 2012 600 LV ±4% 46% 53% — 1%
W. New England U.[283] October 26 – November 1, 2012 535 LV ±4% 46% 50% — 4%
Public Policy Polling[284] November 1–2, 2012 1,089 LV ±3% 46% 52% — 2%
UMass Lowell/Boston Herald[285] October 31 – November 3, 2012 800 LV ±4.1% 49% 48% 1% 1%

* RV= Registered voters; LV= Likely voters

Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Scott
Brown (R) 		Mike
Capuano (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[286] November 29 – December 1, 2010 500 ±4.4% 52% 36% — 12%
Western N.E. College[287] March 6–10, 2011 472 ±4.5% 51% 38% — 10%
7News/Suffolk University[288] April 3–5, 2011 500 ±4.4% 52% 26% 1% 21%
Public Policy Polling[235] June 2–5, 2011 957 ±3.2% 48% 38% — 14%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Scott
Brown (R) 		Martha
Coakley (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[235] June 2–5, 2011 957 ±3.2% 49% 40% — 10%
UMass Lowell[289] September 22–28, 2011 1,005 ±3.8% 41% 40% 4% 15%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Scott
Brown (R) 		Tom
Conroy (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[237] September 16–18, 2011 957 ±3.2% 50% 31% — 18%
UMass Lowell[290] September 22–28, 2011 499 ±5.4% 46% 25% 5% 24%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Scott
Brown (R) 		Marisa
DeFranco (D) 		Other Undecided
UMass Lowell[291] September 22–28, 2011 499 ±5.4% 48% 22% 4% 26%
Suffolk/WHDH[292] February 11–15, 2012 600 ±4% 55% 22% 2% 22%
Suffolk/WHDH[293] May 20–22, 2012 600 ±4% 49% 28% — 24%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Scott
Brown (R) 		Alan
Khazei (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[235] June 2–5, 2011 957 ±3.2% 50% 31% — 19%
WBUR MassInc[294] August 30 – September 1, 2011 500 ±4.4% 45% 30% 2% 22%
Public Policy Polling[237] September 16–18, 2011 957 ±3.2% 48% 33% — 18%
UMass Lowell[295] September 22–28, 2011 506 ±5.3% 40% 28% 6% 26%
Western N.E. College[296] September 29 – October 5, 2011 475 ±4.5% 52% 35% — 13%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Scott
Brown (R) 		Joseph P.
Kennedy II (D) 		Other Undecided
7News/Suffolk University[297] April 3–5, 2011 500 ±4.4% 45% 40% — 14%
UMass Lowell[298] September 22–28, 2011 499 ±5.4% 37% 45% 4% 14%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Scott
Brown (R) 		Vicki
Kennedy (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[286] November 29 – December 1, 2010 500 ±4.4% 48% 41% — 11%
7News/Suffolk University[299] April 3–5, 2011 500 ±4.4% 52% 30% — 18%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Scott
Brown (R) 		Jim
King (D) 		Other Undecided
Suffolk/WHDH[300] February 11–15, 2012 600 ±4% 57% 21% 2% 20%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Scott
Brown (R) 		Stephen
Lynch (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[286] November 29 – December 1, 2010 500 ±4.4% 49% 30% — 20%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Scott
Brown (R) 		Rachel
Maddow (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[235] June 2–5, 2011 957 ±3.2% 49% 29% — 21%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Scott
Brown (R) 		Ed
Markey (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[286] November 29 – December 1, 2010 500 ±4.4% 49% 39% — 13%
7News/Suffolk University[301] April 3–5, 2011 500 ±4.4% 53% 26% — 20%
Public Policy Polling[235] June 2–5, 2011 957 ±3.2% 47% 37% — 16%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Scott
Brown (R) 		Bob
Massie (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[235] June 2–5, 2011 957 ±3.2% 48% 25% — 27%
WBUR MassInc[302] August 30 – September 1, 2011 500 ±4.4% 45% 29% 3% 23%
Public Policy Polling[237] September 16–18, 2011 957 ±3.2% 49% 31% — 21%
UMass Lowell[303] September 22–28, 2011 506 ±5.4% 43% 27% 5% 26%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Scott
Brown (R) 		Tim
Murray (D) 		Other Undecided
7News/Suffolk University[304] April 3–5, 2011 500 ±4.4% 51% 23% 1% 24%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Scott
Brown (R) 		Deval
Patrick (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[286] November 29 – December 1, 2010 500 ±4.4% 49% 42% — 9%
7News/Suffolk University[305] April 3–5, 2011 500 ±4.4% 52% 37% — 11%
UMass Lowell[306] September 22–28, 2011 506 ±5.4% 36% 43% 5% 16%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Scott
Brown (R) 		Herb
Robinson (D) 		Other Undecided
UMass Lowell[307] September 22–28, 2011 499 ±5.4% 51% 18% 5% 25%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Scott
Brown (R) 		Setti
Warren (D) 		Other Undecided
7News/Suffolk University[308] April 3–5, 2011 500 ±4.4% 52% 9% 3% 36%
Public Policy Polling[235] June 2–5, 2011 957 ±3.2% 48% 23% — 29%
WBUR MassInc[309] August 30 – September 1, 2011 500 ±4.4% 46% 28% 3% 24%
Public Policy Polling[237] September 16–18, 2011 957 ±3.2% 47% 32% — 21%
UMass Lowell[310] September 22–28, 2011 506 ±5.4% 43% 28% 6% 23%

Results

[edit]

Despite the Obama campaign's easy victory in the state, and winning all of the state's counties, Warren significantly underperformed Obama's margin. As expected, Warren performed very well in Suffolk County, which is home to the state's largest city and its capital Boston. Brown performed well in the southern part of the state near Cape Cod. Warren made history by becoming the first Massachusetts woman elected to the U.S. Senate.

United States Senate election in Massachusetts, 2012[311]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Elizabeth Warren 1,696,346 53.74 +6.67
Republican Scott Brown (incumbent) 1,458,048 46.19 −5.64
Write-in 2,159 0.07 +0.02
Total votes 3,156,553 100.00 N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Warren won 5 of 9 congressional districts, while Brown won 4, which all elected Democrats.[312]

District Brown Warren Representative
1st 42.83% 57.17% John Olver (112th Congress)
Richard Neal (113th Congress)
2nd 48.55% 51.45% Richard Neal (112th Congress)
Jim McGovern (113th Congress)
3rd 50.82% 49.18% Jim McGovern (112th Congress)
Niki Tsongas (113th Congress)
4th 50.35% 49.65% Barney Frank (112th Congress)
Joe Kennedy III (113th Congress)
5th 41.22% 58.78% Niki Tsongas (112th Congress)
Ed Markey (113th Congress)
6th 53.62% 46.38% John F. Tierney
7th 21.36% 78.64% Ed Markey (112th Congress)
Michael Capuano (113th Congress)
8th 49.90% 50.10% Michael Capuano (112th Congress)
Stephen Lynch (113th Congress)
9th 51.12% 48.88% Stephen Lynch (112th Congress)
Bill Keating (113th Congress)

Aftermath

[edit]

The People's Pledge was a popular concept, which Common Cause proposed being implemented in other races. The pledge also resulted in fewer attack ads on the airwaves.[313]

Less than two months after the election, President Barack Obama nominated Senator John Kerry to become United States Secretary of State. Kerry was sworn in on February 1, making newly inaugurated Warren the state's senior Senator, and the Senate's most-junior senior senator.[314] In the special election to replace Kerry the following year, Democratic nominee Ed Markey asked his Republican rival Gabriel E. Gomez to sign a similar pledge with him, although Gomez refused.[315]

The election was a critical event in both candidates' political careers, with Warren becoming a political icon after entering the Senate, and being drafted to run for president in 2016 and eventually running in 2020.[316] After the election loss, Brown was considered the most prominent Republican in Massachusetts and heavily favored to run in the special Senate election the following year or for governor in 2014,[6][317] though he declined to do either.[318][319] He instead moved to New Hampshire and ran for the Senate there in 2014 against Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen.[320] He lost, 51% to 48%, becoming the first male candidate to lose two Senate races to female candidates.[321]

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
A.^ The Western Massachusetts consortium consists of The Republican, Daily Hampshire Gazette, New England Public Radio, Valley Press Club, Springfield Public Forum, WSHM-LD, WWLP-TV, WGGB-TV, WGBY-TV, Western New England University, and University of Massachusetts Amherst.[322]
B.^ The Boston media consortium consists of WGBH-TV/WGBH FM, WBUR, New England Cable News, WCVB-TV, WHDH, and The Boston Globe.[218]
C.^ The organizations themselves did not donate, rather the money came from the organizations' PACs, their individual members or employees or owners, and those individuals' immediate families. Organization totals include subsidiaries and affiliates.

Citations

[edit]
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