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2012 Montana gubernatorial election

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2012 Montana gubernatorial election

← 2008 November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06) 2016 →
Turnout72.18%Decrease2.32[1]
 
Nominee Steve Bullock Rick Hill
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate John Walsh Jon Sonju
Popular vote 236,450 228,879
Percentage 48.9% 47.3%

County results
Bullock:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Hill:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%

Governor before election

Brian Schweitzer
Democratic

Elected Governor

Steve Bullock
Democratic

The 2012 Montana gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2012, to elect the governor of Montana. Incumbent Democratic governor Brian Schweitzer was term-limited and could not run for re-election to a third term.

Montana Attorney General Steve Bullock won the Democratic primary with 87% of the vote and former U.S. representative Rick Hill won the Republican primary with 34% of the vote. In the general election, Bullock won by 7,571 votes, taking 48.9% of the vote to Hill's 47.3%.[2] With a margin of 1.6%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2012 gubernatorial election cycle, behind only the election in Puerto Rico. Due to the close margin, media outlets did not call the race for Bullock until the next day.[3] This was the last time anyone other than Greg Gianforte was the Republican nominee.

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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  • Heather Margolis, Montana representative for community service organization ServeNext

Withdrew

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Declined

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Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
Bullock
Larry
Jent
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[11] November 28–30, 2011 573 ± 4.1% 70% 6% 24%

Results

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Democratic primary results[12]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Steve Bullock 76,738 86.6
Democratic Heather Margolis 11,823 13.4
Total votes 88,561 100.0

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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  • Bob Fanning, retired businessman[13]
  • Jim Lynch, former Montana Department of Transportation director[20]

Withdrew

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Declined

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Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jeff
Essmann
Bob
Fanning
Rick
Hill
Neil
Livingstone
Jim
Lynch
Ken
Miller
Jim
O'Hara
Corey
Stapleton
Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[32] April 26–29, 2012 403 ± 4.88% 1% 33% 5% 4% 12% 4% 7% 35%
Public Policy Polling[33] November 28–30, 2011 700 ± 3.7% 5% 1% 37% 3% 4% 10% 3% 2% 35%

Results

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Primary results by county:
Hill
  •   Hill—51-60%
  •   Hill—41-50%
  •   Hill—31-40%
  •   Hill—21-30%
Stapleton
  •   Stapleton—31-40%
  •   Stapleton—21-30%
Miller
  •   Miller—51-60%
  •   Miller—41-50%
  •   Miller—31-40%
  •   Miller—21-30%
O'Hara
  •   O'Hara—51-60%
  •   O'Hara—31-40%
Republican primary results[12]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Rick Hill 46,802 34.4
Republican Corey Stapleton 24,661 18.1
Republican Ken Miller 24,496 18.0
Republican Jim O'Hara 16,653 12.2
Republican Neil Livingstone 12,038 8.8
Republican Jim Lynch 8,323 6.1
Republican Bob Fanning 3,087 2.3
Total votes 136,060 100.0

General election

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Candidates

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  • Running mate: John Walsh, brigadier general and former adjutant general in the Montana National Guard
  • Ron Vandevender (Libertarian), businessman[34]
  • Running mate: Marc Mulcahy[14]

Debate

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[35] Tossup November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[36] Lean R (flip) November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report[37] Tossup November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[38] Tossup November 5, 2012

Polling

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Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Steve
Bullock (D)
Rick
Hill (R)
Other/Undecided
[a]
Margin
Real Clear Politics[39] September 27 – November 3, 2012 November 3, 2012 44.0% 45.7% 10.3% Hill +1.7%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
Bullock (D)
Rick
Hill (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[40] November 2–3, 2012 836 ± 3.4% 48% 48% 2% 2%
Mason-Dixon[41] October 29–31, 2012 625 ± 4.0% 46% 49% 2% 3%
Public Policy Polling[42] October 8–10, 2012 737 ± 3.6% 42% 43% 8% 7%
Montana State University[43] September 27–30, 2012 477 ± 4.6% 38% 40% 2% 20%
Mason-Dixon[44] September 17–19, 2012 625 ± 4.0% 44% 43% 2% 11%
Public Policy Polling[45] September 10–11, 2012 656 ± 3.2% 44% 39% 8% 9%
Public Policy Polling[32] April 26–29, 2012 934 ± 3.2% 39% 39% 21%
Public Policy Polling[11] November 28–30, 2011 1,625 ± 2.4% 38% 39% 23%
Public Policy Polling[46] June 16–19, 2011 819 ± 3.4% 37% 39% 23%
Public Policy Polling[47] November 10–13, 2010 1,176 ± 2.9% 31% 41% 28%
Hypothetical polling

With Bohlinger

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Bohlinger (D)
Jeff
Essmann (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[46] June 16–19, 2011 819 ± 3.4% 40% 33% 28%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Bohlinger (D)
Rick
Hill (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[46] June 16–19, 2011 819 ± 3.4% 39% 40% 21%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Bohlinger (D)
Ken
Miller (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[46] June 16–19, 2011 819 ± 3.4% 39% 33% 28%

With Bullock

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
Bullock (D)
Jeff
Essmann (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[11] November 28–30, 2011 1,625 ± 2.4% 42% 30% 28%
Public Policy Polling[46] June 16–19, 2011 819 ± 3.4% 38% 33% 28%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
Bullock (D)
Neil
Livingstone (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[11] November 28–30, 2011 1,625 ± 2.4% 41% 29% 30%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
Bullock (D)
Ken
Miller (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[32] April 26–29, 2012 934 ± 3.2% 41% 35% 24%
Public Policy Polling[11] November 28–30, 2011 1,625 ± 2.4% 40% 31% 29%
Public Policy Polling[46] June 16–19, 2011 819 ± 3.4% 38% 34% 28%

With Jent

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Larry
Jent (D)
Rick
Hill (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[11] November 28–30, 2011 1,625 ± 2.4% 26% 39% 35%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Larry
Jent (D)
Neil
Livingstone (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[11] November 28–30, 2011 1,625 ± 2.4% 26% 30% 44%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Larry
Jent (D)
Ken
Miller (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[11] November 28–30, 2011 1,625 ± 2.4% 25% 33% 42%

With Wanzenried

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Dave
Wanzenried (D)
Jeff
Essmann (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[46] June 16–19, 2011 819 ± 3.4% 31% 33% 36%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Dave
Wanzenried (D)
Rick
Hill (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[46] June 16–19, 2011 819 ± 3.4% 30% 40% 30%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Dave
Wanzenried (D)
Ken
Miller (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[46] June 16–19, 2011 819 ± 3.4% 30% 35% 35%

Results

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2012 Montana gubernatorial election[48]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Steve Bullock 236,450 48.90% −16.57%
Republican Rick Hill 228,879 47.34% +14.82%
Libertarian Ron Vandevender 18,160 3.76% +1.75%
Total votes 483,489 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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Notes

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  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

References

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  1. ^ "Montana Voter Turnout". Montana Secretary of State - Christi Jacobsen. February 22, 2018. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
  2. ^ Michael Barone, et al. The Almanac of American Politics 2014 (2013) (Kindle Locations 48242-48245).
  3. ^ Charles S. Johnson (November 6, 2012). "Networks declare Bullock winner in tight race for governor". Montana Standard.
  4. ^ Catanese, David (September 7, 2011). "Bullock joins Montana governor's race". Politico. Retrieved September 7, 2011.
  5. ^ Johnson, Charles S. (March 9, 2012). "Bullock makes pick of Walsh as running mate official". Independent Record. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
  6. ^ Banks, Marnee (March 12, 2012). "Democrats Margolis & Nelsen enter race for MT Governor". KXLF-TV. Archived from the original on January 27, 2013. Retrieved March 14, 2012.
  7. ^ Johnson, Charles S. (March 8, 2012). "Jent drops out of governor's race, leaving Bullock as lone Democrat". Billings Gazette. Retrieved March 9, 2012.
  8. ^ a b Johnson, Charles S. (June 12, 2011). "Bohlinger, Essmann eye governor's race". Billings Gazette. Retrieved June 15, 2011.
  9. ^ Charles S. Johnson (July 7, 2011). "Wanzenried ends run for governor". Billings Gazette.
  10. ^ Johnson, Charles S. (September 13, 2010). "Pat Williams not running for governor". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
  11. ^ a b c d e f g h Public Policy Polling
  12. ^ a b "2012 STATEWIDE PRIMARY ELECTION CANVASS" (PDF). Secretary of State of Montana. Archived from the original (PDF) on January 21, 2013. Retrieved September 24, 2012.
  13. ^ Johnson, Charles S. (October 4, 2011). "3 more GOP candidates running for governor". Billings Gazette. Retrieved October 5, 2011.
  14. ^ a b Banks, Marnee (March 12, 2012). "Long list of candidates running for U.S. House & MT Governor". KRTV. Archived from the original on January 27, 2013. Retrieved March 14, 2012.
  15. ^ Banks, Marnee (February 13, 2012). "MT gubernatorial candidate Fanning loses running mate". KTVQ. Archived from the original on January 19, 2015. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
  16. ^ Johnson, Charles S. (November 6, 2010). "Former GOP U.S. Rep. Rick Hill to run for Montana governor". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
  17. ^ Reece, Myers (January 18, 2012). "Rick Hill Announces Jon Sonju as Gubernatorial Running Mate". Flathead Beacon. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
  18. ^ "Terrorism expert files for Montana governor's race". Associated Press. February 12, 2011. Retrieved February 12, 2011.
  19. ^ Johnson, Charles S. (July 10, 2011). "Livingstone taps Zinke as running mate". Billings Gazette. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
  20. ^ "Jim Lynch announces candidacy for Governor". KTVQ. October 13, 2011. Archived from the original on October 23, 2011. Retrieved October 14, 2011.
  21. ^ Sherman, David (March 12, 2012). "Lynch names Olszewski as running mate in MT governor race". KRTV. Archived from the original on January 27, 2013. Retrieved March 14, 2012.
  22. ^ Dennison, Mike (August 9, 2010). "Republican former state senator from Laurel formally enters 2012 governor's race". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
  23. ^ Reece, Myers (February 6, 2012). "Ken Miller Announces Bill Gallagher as Gubernatorial Running Mate". Flathead Beacon. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
  24. ^ Keegan, Charlie (January 14, 2011). "Jim O'Hara Announces Candidacy for Governor". KFBB-TV. Archived from the original on July 13, 2011. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
  25. ^ Johnson, Charles S. (February 7, 2012). "O'Hara picks retired MHP officer as running mate". Billings Gazette. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
  26. ^ Johnson, Charles S. (July 19, 2010). "Stapleton bidding for governor". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
  27. ^ Johnson, Charles S. (February 7, 2012). "Stapleton picks Keenan for running mate". Billings Gazette. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
  28. ^ "Essmann drops out of GOP race for governor". Billingsgazette.com. January 27, 2012. Retrieved January 5, 2018.
  29. ^ [1] [dead link]
  30. ^ "Turiano Drops Gubernatorial Bid". Flathead Beacon. January 17, 2012. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
  31. ^ Johnson, Charles S. (November 11, 2010). "Rehberg focusing on current job". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
  32. ^ a b c Public Policy Polling
  33. ^ Public Policy Polling
  34. ^ Johnson, Charles S. (March 1, 2012). "Governor candidates talk about state economy". Independent Record. Retrieved March 14, 2012.
  35. ^ "2012 Governor Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  36. ^ "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on December 1, 2018. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  37. ^ "2012 Gubernatorial Ratings". Gubernatorial Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  38. ^ "2012 Elections Map - 2012 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  39. ^ Real Clear Politics
  40. ^ Public Policy Polling
  41. ^ Mason-Dixon
  42. ^ Public Policy Polling
  43. ^ Montana State University
  44. ^ Mason-Dixon
  45. ^ Public Policy Polling
  46. ^ a b c d e f g h i Public Policy Polling
  47. ^ Public Policy Polling
  48. ^ "2012 Statewide General Election Canvass" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved January 13, 2019.
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Official campaign websites (Archived)