2016 Montana gubernatorial election

2016 Montana gubernatorial election
Turnout	74.44%2.26
	Bullock: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Gianforte: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; No votes
Governor before election; Steve Bullock; Democratic	Elected Governor ; Steve Bullock; Democratic

The 2016 Montana gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2016, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Montana, concurrently with the presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic governor Steve Bullock won re-election to a second term in office with 50.3% of the vote, defeating Republican Greg Gianforte, who later won Montana's governorship in 2020 when Bullock was term-limited.

In the concurrent presidential election, Hillary Clinton lost Montana by more than 20%, with Bullock thus over-performing her vote share by more than 14% and her margin of defeat by more than 24%.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Steve Bullock, incumbent governor

Running mate: Mike Cooney, incumbent lieutenant governor^[2]

Eliminated in primary

Bill McChesney, former state representative^[3]

Running mate: Mike Anderson

Results

Democratic primary results
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Steve Bullock (incumbent)	109,450	91.3%
	Democratic	Bill McChesney	10,486	8.7%
Total votes			119,936	100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Greg Gianforte, founder of RightNow Technologies and conservative activist^[4]^[5]^[6]

Running mate: Lesley Robinson, Phillips County Commissioner

Eliminated in primary

Terry Nelson, planning administrator for Ravalli County, Montana^[7]

Running mate: Niki Sardot

Withdrawn

Brad Johnson, chairman of the Montana Public Service Commission and former secretary of state of Montana^[8]
Mark Perea, businessman and nominee for the state senate in 2012^[9] (did not file)

Declined

Taylor Brown, state senator^[10]
Jeff Essman, state representative and former president of the State Senate^[11]
Tim Fox, Attorney General of Montana (running for re-election)^[4]
Ryan Zinke, U.S. representative (running for re-election)^[4]

Endorsements

Greg Gianforte

U.S. senators

Conrad Burns, former U.S. senator^[12]
Steve Daines, U.S. senator^[13]

State officials

Tim Fox, Attorney General of Montana^[14]
Rick Hill, former U.S. representative and 2012 GOP gubernatorial nominee^[12]
Ron Marlenee, former U.S. representative^[12]
Judy Martz, former governor of Montana^[14]
Marc Racicot, former governor of Montana^[14]
Denny Rehberg, former U.S. representative^[12]
Stan Stephens, former governor of Montana^[14]
Ryan Zinke, U.S. representative^[13]

Organizations

Montana Chamber of Commerce^[15]
Montana Farm Bureau Federation^[16]
National Federation of Independent Business^[17]

Results

Republican primary results
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Greg Gianforte	109,882	76.4%
	Republican	Terry Nelson	33,987	23.6%
Total votes			143,869	100.0%

Third parties

Independent

Declared

Christopher Zarcone^[9]

Libertarian

Declared

Ted Dunlap, perennial candidate^[18]

Running mate: Ron Vandevender, perennial candidate

Withdrew

Ron Vandevender, perennial candidate^[9]

General election

Debates

Complete video of debate, September 19, 2016 - C-SPAN

Endorsements

Greg Gianforte

Governors

Marc Racicot, Montana (former)^[19]
Judy Martz, Montana (former)^[19]

State officials

Tim Fox, Montana Attorney General^[19]

U.S. senators

Steve Daines, Montana^[19]
Conrad Burns, Montana (former) (deceased)^[19]

U.S. representatives

Rick Hill, Montana's at-large congressional district (former)^[19]
Ron Marlenee, Montana's 2nd congressional district (former)^[19]
Denny Rehberg, Montana's at-large congressional district (former)^[19]
Ryan Zinke, Montana's at-large congressional district^[19]

Organizations

Gun Owners of America^[19]
Montana Chamber of Commerce^[19]
Montana Farm Bureau Federation PAC^[19]
National Federation of Independent Business^[19]
National Rifle Association of America^[19]
Susan B. Anthony List^[19]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[20]	Lean D	August 12, 2016
Daily Kos^[21]	Lean D	November 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report^[22]	Lean D	November 3, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[23]	Lean D	November 7, 2016
Real Clear Politics^[24]	Lean D	November 1, 2016
Governing^[25]	Tossup	October 27, 2016

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Steve Bullock (D)	Greg Gianforte (R)	Ted Dunlap (L)	Undecided
SurveyMonkey	November 1–7, 2016	449	± 4.6%	44%	46%	7%	3%
SurveyMonkey	October 31–November 6, 2016	410	± 4.6%	45%	44%	8%	3%
SurveyMonkey	October 28–November 3, 2016	403	± 4.6%	46%	46%	7%	1%
SurveyMonkey	October 27–November 2, 2016	376	± 4.6%	48%	43%	7%	2%
SurveyMonkey	October 26–November 1, 2016	385	± 4.6%	51%	41%	7%	1%
SurveyMonkey	October 25–31, 2016	405	± 4.6%	53%	39%	7%	1%
Mason-Dixon	October 10–12, 2016	1,003	± 3.2%	47%	45%	2%	6%
Montana State University Billings	October 3–10, 2016	590	± 4.0%	44%	32%	3%	20%

Hypothetical polling

with Ryan Zinke

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Steve Bullock (D)	Ryan Zinke (R)	Other	Undecided
Gravis Marketing	February 24–25, 2015	1,035	± 3%	44%	44%	—	11%
Gravis Marketing	November 24–25, 2014	836	± 3%	41%	49%	—	10%

with Tim Fox

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Steve Bullock (D)	Tim Fox (R)	Other	Undecided
Gravis Marketing	February 24–25, 2015	1,035	± 3%	46%	38%	—	16%
Gravis Marketing	November 24–25, 2014	836	± 3%	41%	45%	—	14%
Public Policy Polling	July 20–22, 2013	741	± 4%	46%	43%	—	11%

Results

2016 Montana gubernatorial election^[26]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Steve Bullock (incumbent)	255,933	50.25%	+1.35%
	Republican	Greg Gianforte	236,115	46.35%	−0.99%
	Libertarian	Ted Dunlap	17,312	3.40%	−0.36%
Total votes			509,360	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic hold

References

^ "Montana Voter Turnout". Montana Secretary of State - Christi Jacobsen. February 22, 2018. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
^ Dennison, Mike (March 1, 2016). "Bullock files for re-election for governor". KTVQ. Archived from the original on March 2, 2016. Retrieved March 2, 2016.
^ "Former legislator steps into Democratic governor's race". Independent Record. March 12, 2016. Retrieved March 12, 2016.^{[permanent dead link]}
^ ^a ^b ^c "AG Tim Fox files paperwork for re-election in 2016". The Bozeman Daily Chronicle. November 13, 2014. Retrieved November 15, 2014.
^ McCumber, David (August 17, 2015). "Gianforte files exploratory papers for governor". The Montana Standard. Retrieved August 18, 2015.
^ Calvin, Bobby (January 20, 2016). "Gianforte officially launches campaign for Montana governor". The Missoulian. Retrieved January 20, 2016.
^ Bragg, Dennis. "Nelson jumps into Montana gubernatorial race". Archived from the original on March 6, 2017. Retrieved March 6, 2017.
^ "Brad Johnson drops out of race for Montana governor". Billings Gazette. January 27, 2016. Retrieved January 28, 2016.
^ ^a ^b ^c Carter, Troy (February 1, 2015). "First contestant enters GOP gubernatorial field". Bozeman Daily Chronicle. Archived from the original on February 5, 2015. Retrieved February 3, 2015.
^ Flint, Aaron (January 26, 2015). "Report: Taylor Brown Doesn't Rule Out Run for Governor". Northern Broadcasting System. Archived from the original on April 2, 2015. Retrieved March 7, 2015.
^ Jacobson, Louis (January 23, 2015). "Democrats Have More Seats to Defend in 2015-2016 Governors Races". Governing. Retrieved March 24, 2015.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d "Former US Senator Conrad Burns, Former US Reps Rehberg, Hill, and Marlenee Endorse Gianforte-Robinson Ticket". Greg Gianforte for Montana. April 12, 2016. Archived from the original on October 23, 2016. Retrieved October 23, 2016.
^ ^a ^b "Daines, Zinke Endorse Greg Gianforte, Lesley Robinson For Gov., Lt. Gov. Of Montana". Fairfield Sun Times. April 5, 2016.^{[permanent dead link]}
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d "Montana Attorney General Tim Fox, Former Governors Endorse Gianforte-Robinson Ticket". Greg Gianforte for Montana. April 11, 2016. Archived from the original on October 23, 2016. Retrieved October 23, 2016.
^ "GIANFORTE/ROBINSON LAND ENDORSEMENT FROM MONTANA CHAMBER OF COMMERCE". National Federation of Independent Business. June 17, 2016. Archived from the original on October 23, 2016. Retrieved October 23, 2016.
^ "Gianforte-Robinson Land Important Endorsement in 2016 Election, AG is Montana's Number One Industry". Greg Gianforte for Montana. April 21, 2016. Archived from the original on October 23, 2016. Retrieved October 23, 2016.
^ "NFIB Endorses Greg Gianforte for Governor". National Federation of Independent Business. August 16, 2016.
^ Backus, Perry (March 20, 2016). "Libertarian from Conner running for governor". Independent Record. Retrieved August 11, 2016.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ ^j ^k ^l ^m ⁿ ^o "Endorsements". gregformontana.com. Archived from the original on October 30, 2016. Retrieved October 30, 2016.
^ "2016 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 15, 2018. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
^ "Elections 2015-16". Daily Kos. Retrieved October 15, 2018.^{[permanent dead link]}
^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Archived from the original on June 12, 2017. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
^ "Our Final 2016 picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on October 15, 2018. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
^ "2016 Election Maps - 2016 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
^ "2016 Governors Races Ratings & News". Governing Magazine. Archived from the original on October 27, 2016. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
^ "2016 General Election" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved January 5, 2017.

External links

Official campaign websites (archived)

[1] "Montana Voter Turnout". Montana Secretary of State - Christi Jacobsen. February 22, 2018. Retrieved May 26, 2022.

[2] Dennison, Mike (March 1, 2016). "Bullock files for re-election for governor". KTVQ. Archived from the original on March 2, 2016. Retrieved March 2, 2016.

[3] "Former legislator steps into Democratic governor's race". Independent Record. March 12, 2016. Retrieved March 12, 2016.^{[permanent dead link]}

[timfox-4] "AG Tim Fox files paperwork for re-election in 2016". The Bozeman Daily Chronicle. November 13, 2014. Retrieved November 15, 2014.

[5] McCumber, David (August 17, 2015). "Gianforte files exploratory papers for governor". The Montana Standard. Retrieved August 18, 2015.

[6] Calvin, Bobby (January 20, 2016). "Gianforte officially launches campaign for Montana governor". The Missoulian. Retrieved January 20, 2016.

[7] Bragg, Dennis. "Nelson jumps into Montana gubernatorial race". Archived from the original on March 6, 2017. Retrieved March 6, 2017.

[8] "Brad Johnson drops out of race for Montana governor". Billings Gazette. January 27, 2016. Retrieved January 28, 2016.

[first-9] Carter, Troy (February 1, 2015). "First contestant enters GOP gubernatorial field". Bozeman Daily Chronicle. Archived from the original on February 5, 2015. Retrieved February 3, 2015.

[10] Flint, Aaron (January 26, 2015). "Report: Taylor Brown Doesn't Rule Out Run for Governor". Northern Broadcasting System. Archived from the original on April 2, 2015. Retrieved March 7, 2015.

[governing-11] Jacobson, Louis (January 23, 2015). "Democrats Have More Seats to Defend in 2015-2016 Governors Races". Governing. Retrieved March 24, 2015.

[giante-12] "Former US Senator Conrad Burns, Former US Reps Rehberg, Hill, and Marlenee Endorse Gianforte-Robinson Ticket". Greg Gianforte for Montana. April 12, 2016. Archived from the original on October 23, 2016. Retrieved October 23, 2016.

[gianm-13] "Daines, Zinke Endorse Greg Gianforte, Lesley Robinson For Gov., Lt. Gov. Of Montana". Fairfield Sun Times. April 5, 2016.^{[permanent dead link]}

[gianfo-14] "Montana Attorney General Tim Fox, Former Governors Endorse Gianforte-Robinson Ticket". Greg Gianforte for Montana. April 11, 2016. Archived from the original on October 23, 2016. Retrieved October 23, 2016.

[15] "GIANFORTE/ROBINSON LAND ENDORSEMENT FROM MONTANA CHAMBER OF COMMERCE". National Federation of Independent Business. June 17, 2016. Archived from the original on October 23, 2016. Retrieved October 23, 2016.

[16] "Gianforte-Robinson Land Important Endorsement in 2016 Election, AG is Montana's Number One Industry". Greg Gianforte for Montana. April 21, 2016. Archived from the original on October 23, 2016. Retrieved October 23, 2016.

[17] "NFIB Endorses Greg Gianforte for Governor". National Federation of Independent Business. August 16, 2016.

[18] Backus, Perry (March 20, 2016). "Libertarian from Conner running for governor". Independent Record. Retrieved August 11, 2016.

[GEndorsements-19] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ ^j ^k ^l ^m ⁿ ^o "Endorsements". gregformontana.com. Archived from the original on October 30, 2016. Retrieved October 30, 2016.

[20] "2016 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 15, 2018. Retrieved October 15, 2018.

[21] "Elections 2015-16". Daily Kos. Retrieved October 15, 2018.^{[permanent dead link]}

[22] "Gubernatorial Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Archived from the original on June 12, 2017. Retrieved October 15, 2018.

[23] "Our Final 2016 picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on October 15, 2018. Retrieved October 15, 2018.

[24] "2016 Election Maps - 2016 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 15, 2018.

[25] "2016 Governors Races Ratings & News". Governing Magazine. Archived from the original on October 27, 2016. Retrieved October 28, 2016.

[GeneralElection-26] "2016 General Election" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved January 5, 2017.

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