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2016 United States House of Representatives election ratings

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2016 United States House of Representatives election ratings

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The 2016 United States House of Representatives elections were held November 8, 2016, to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. The six non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and the inhabited U.S. territories were also elected. Numerous federal, state, and local elections, including the 2016 presidential election and the 2016 Senate elections, were also held on this date.

Election ratings

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Latest published ratings for competitive seats

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Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below were considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.

Most election ratings use:

  • "tossup": no advantage
  • "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
  • "lean": slight advantage
  • "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
  • "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory

The following are the latest published ratings for competitive seats.

District CPVI Incumbent Previous
result
Cook
November 7, 2016[1]
Rothenberg
November 3, 2016[2]
Sabato
November 7, 2016[3]
RCP
October 31, 2016[4]
Daily Kos
November 7, 2016[5]
Winner[6]
Alaska at-large R+12 Don Young (R) 51.0% R Lean R Safe R Lean R Likely R Likely R Don Young (R)
Arizona 1 R+4 Ann Kirkpatrick (D) (retiring)[a] 52.6% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean D Tom O'Halleran (D)
Arizona 2 R+3 Martha McSally (R) 50.0% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Lean R Likely R Martha McSally (R)
California 3 D+3 John Garamendi (D) 52.7% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D John Garamendi (D)
California 7 EVEN Ami Bera (D) 50.4% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Ami Bera (D)
California 10 R+1 Jeff Denham (R) 56.2% R Tossup Lean R Lean D (flip) Lean R Tossup Jeff Denham (R)
California 16 D+7 Jim Costa (D) 50.7% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Jim Costa (D)
California 21 D+2 David Valadao (R) 57.8% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Likely R Lean R David Valadao (R)
California 24 D+4 Lois Capps (D) (retiring) 51.9% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Salud Carbajal (D)
California 25 R+3 Steve Knight (R) 53.3% R Tossup Likely R Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Steve Knight (R)
California 48 R+7 Dana Rohrabacher (R) 64.1% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Dana Rohrabacher (R)
California 49 R+4 Darrell Issa (R) 60.2% R Tossup Tilt R Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Darrell Issa (R)
California 52 D+2 Scott Peters (D) 51.6% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Scott Peters (D)
Colorado 3 R+5 Scott Tipton (R) 58.0% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Lean R Scott Tipton (R)
Colorado 6 D+1 Mike Coffman (R) 51.9% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Tossup Tossup Mike Coffman (R)
Florida 2 R+18 Gwen Graham (D) (retiring) 50.5% D Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip) Safe R (flip) Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip) Neal Dunn (R)
Florida 7 R+2 John Mica (R) 63.6% R Tossup Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Stephanie Murphy (D)
Florida 10 D+9 Daniel Webster (R) (switching seats)[b] 61.5% R Likely D (flip) Safe D (flip) Safe D (flip) Likely D (flip) Safe D (flip) Val Demings (D)
Florida 13 D+3 David Jolly (R) 75.2% R Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Charlie Crist (D)
Florida 18 R+3 Patrick Murphy (D) (retiring)[a] 59.8% D Lean R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Brian Mast (R)
Florida 26 EVEN Carlos Curbelo (R) 51.5% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Carlos Curbelo (R)
Florida 27 R+1 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) 100.0% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R)
Illinois 10 D+8 Robert Dold (R) 51.3% R Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Brad Schneider (D)
Illinois 12 EVEN Mike Bost (R) 52.5% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Mike Bost (R)
Illinois 17 D+7 Cheri Bustos (D) 55.5% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Cheri Bustos (D)
Indiana 2 R+6 Jackie Walorski (R) 58.9% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Jackie Walorski (R)
Indiana 9 R+9 Todd Young (R) (retiring) [a] 62.2% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Likely R Lean R Trey Hollingsworth (R)
Iowa 1 D+5 Rod Blum (R) 51.1% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Rod Blum (R)
Iowa 2 D+4 Dave Loebsack (D) 52.4% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D David Loebsack (D)
Iowa 3 EVEN David Young (R) 52.8% R Lean R Tilt R Lean R Lean R Lean R David Young (R)
Kansas 3 R+5 Kevin Yoder (R) 60.0% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Kevin Yoder (R)
Maine 2 D+2 Bruce Poliquin (R) 47.0% R Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Bruce Poliquin (R)
Maryland 6 D+4 John K. Delaney (D) 49.5% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D John K. Delaney (D)
Michigan 1 R+5 Dan Benishek (R) (retiring) 52.1% R Lean R Tilt R Lean R Tossup Tossup Jack Bergman (R)
Michigan 6 R+1 Fred Upton (R) 55.9% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Fred Upton (R)
Michigan 7 R+3 Tim Walberg (R) 53.5% R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tim Walberg (R)
Michigan 8 R+2 Mike Bishop (R) 54.6% R Lean R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Mike Bishop (R)
Minnesota 1 R+1 Tim Walz (D) 54.3% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Tim Walz (D)
Minnesota 2 R+2 John Kline (R) (retiring) 56.0% R Tossup Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Jason Lewis (R)
Minnesota 3 R+2 Erik Paulsen (R) 62.2% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R Erik Paulsen (R)
Minnesota 7 R+6 Collin Peterson (D) 54.3% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Collin Peterson (D)
Minnesota 8 D+1 Rick Nolan (D) 48.5% D Tossup Lean D Lean D Tossup Tossup Rick Nolan (D)
Montana at-large R+7 Ryan Zinke (R) 55.4% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Ryan Zinke (R)
Nebraska 2 R+4 Brad Ashford (D) 49.0% D Tossup Tilt D Lean D Tossup Tossup Don Bacon (R)
Nevada 3 EVEN Joe Heck (R) (retiring)[a] 60.8% R Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Lean D (flip) Jacky Rosen (D)
Nevada 4 D+4 Cresent Hardy (R) 48.5% R Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Ruben Kihuen (D)
New Hampshire 1 R+1 Frank Guinta (R) 51.7% R Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Carol Shea Porter (D)
New Jersey 5 R+4 Scott Garrett (R) 55.4% R Tossup Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Josh Gottheimer (D)
New York 1 R+2 Lee Zeldin (R) 54.4% R Likely R Lean R Lean R Tossup Likely R Lee Zeldin (R)
New York 3 EVEN Steve Israel (D) (retiring) 54.8% D Lean D Lean D Likely D Lean D Likely D Thomas Suozzi (D)
New York 19 D+1 Chris Gibson (R) (retiring) 64.5% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup John Faso (R)
New York 21 EVEN Elise Stefanik (R) 55.1% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Elise Stefanik (R)
New York 22 R+3 Richard L. Hanna (R) (retiring) 98.4% R Lean R Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Claudia Tenney (R)
New York 23 R+3 Tom Reed (R) 61.7% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Lean R Likely R Tom Reed (R)
New York 24 D+5 John Katko (R) 59.5% R Likely R Likely R Lean R Tossup Lean R John Katko (R)
New York 25 D+7 Louise Slaughter (D) 50.2% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Louise Slaughter (D)
North Carolina 6 R+10 Mark Walker (R) 58.7% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Mark Walker (R)
North Carolina 8 R+8 Richard Hudson (R) 64.9% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Richard Hudson (R)
North Carolina 9 R+8 Robert Pittenger (R) 93.9% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Robert Pittenger (R)
North Carolina 13 R+5 George Holding (R) (switching seats)[c] 57.3% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Ted Budd (R)
Pennsylvania 6 R+2 Ryan Costello (R) 56.3% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Ryan Costello (R)
Pennsylvania 8 R+1 Mike Fitzpatrick (R) (retiring) 61.9% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
Pennsylvania 16 R+4 Joe Pitts (R) (retiring) 57.7% R Lean R Safe R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lloyd Smucker (R)
Pennsylvania 17 D+4 Matt Cartwright (D) 56.8% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Matt Cartwright (D)
Texas 10 R+11 Michael McCaul (R) 62.2% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Michael McCaul (R)
Texas 14 R+12 Randy Weber (R) 61.8% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Randy Weber (R)
Texas 23 R+3 Will Hurd (R) 49.8% R Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Will Hurd (R)
Utah 4 R+16 Mia Love (R) 50.9% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Tossup Likely R Mia Love (R)
Virginia 4 D+8 Randy Forbes (R) (switching seats)[d] 60.2% R Likely D (flip) Safe D (flip) Safe D (flip) Likely D (flip) Safe D (flip) Donald McEachin (D)
Virginia 5 R+5 Robert Hurt (R) (retiring) 60.9% R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Thomas Garrett Jr. (R)
Virginia 7 R+8 Dave Brat (R) 60.8% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Dave Brat (R)
Virginia 10 R+2 Barbara Comstock (R) 56.5% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Tossup Tossup Barbara Comstock (R)
Washington 3 R+2 Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) 61.5% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Jaime Herrera Beutler (R)
Washington 8 R+1 Dave Reichert (R) 60.2% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Dave Reichert (R)
Wisconsin 8 R+2 Reid Ribble (R) (retiring) 65.0% R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R Mike Gallagher (R)
Overall R - 228
D - 189
18 tossups
R - 231
D - 194
10 tossups
R - 234
D - 201
R - 225
D - 190
20 tossups
R - 225
D - 190
20 tossups
R - 241
D - 194

Generic ballot polls

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The following is a list of generic party ballot polls conducted in advance of the 2018 House of Representatives elections.

Polling aggregates
Source of poll aggregation Date updated Dates polled Democratic Republican Lead
FiveThirtyEight[7] Nov 8, 2016 Until Nov 7, 2016 45.4% 44.2% +1.2%
RealClearPolitics[8] Nov 8, 2016 Nov 1–7, 2016 46.0% 45.4% +0.6%
Average 45.7% 44.8% +0.9%

Notes

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  1. ^ a b c d Retired to run for senate
  2. ^ Contested the new 11th and won.
  3. ^ Contested the new 2nd and won.
  4. ^ Contested the new 2nd and lost in the primaries.

References

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  1. ^ "2016 House Race Ratings for November 7, 2016". House: Race Ratings. Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on November 8, 2016. Retrieved November 12, 2016.
  2. ^ "2016 House Ratings (November 3, 2016)". House Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Archived from the original on November 12, 2016. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  3. ^ "2016 House". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 7, 2016.
  4. ^ "Battle for the House 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 31, 2016.
  5. ^ "Daily Kos Elections House race ratings: Initial ratings for 2016". Daily Kos Elections. Archived from the original on March 3, 2017. Retrieved November 7, 2016.
  6. ^ "House Election Results: G.O.P. Keeps Control". The New York Times. November 9, 2016. Retrieved November 9, 2016.
  7. ^ FiveThirtyEight
  8. ^ RealClearPolitics