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2016 United States presidential election in North Carolina

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Main article: 2016 United States presidential election
2016 United States presidential election in North Carolina
← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
Turnout65.20% Increase [1]
 
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton
Party Republican Democratic
Home state New York New York
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine
Electoral vote 15 0
Popular vote 2,362,631 2,189,316
Percentage 49.83% 46.17%
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Results by county showing number of votes by size and candidates by color
Treemap of the popular vote by county.
Elections in North Carolina
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2012
Amendment 1
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The 2016 United States presidential election in North Carolina held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. North Carolina voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. North Carolina had 15 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Trump won the state with 49.83% of the vote, a small decrease from Mitt Romney's vote percentage in 2012. However, he won by a margin of 3.66%, an increase of 1.62% compared to Romney's margin in 2012. In contrast, Clinton obtained 46.17% of the vote, a decrease of over 2% in 2012 when Obama won 48.35% of the vote. Although both candidates saw decreases in vote share compared to 2012, Trump and Clinton both obtained more votes than the previous election's candidates due to a higher voter turnout in this election. Trump flipped seven counties to the Republican column and was the first Republican to win Robeson, Richmond, and Gates counties since Richard Nixon in 1972. Clinton flipped just one county to the Democratic column, Watauga County, home to Boone.

Trump became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Watauga County since James A. Garfield in 1880, as well as the first to do so without carrying Bumcombe or Forsyth counties since Calvin Coolidge in 1924, the first to do so without carrying Wake County since Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1956, and the first to do so without carrying Pitt or Wilson counties since Richard Nixon in 1968. It was also the first time since 1980 that North Carolina voted more Democratic than Ohio.

Primary elections

[edit]

The Democratic, Republican, and Libertarian primaries were on March 15, 2016. In North Carolina, registered members of each party only voted in their party's primary, while voters who were unaffiliated chose any one primary in which to vote.

Democratic primary

[edit]
County results of the North Carolina Democratic presidential primary, 2016.
  Hillary Clinton
  Bernie Sanders

Four candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:[3][4]

Polling

[edit]

According to a WRAL-TV/SurveyUSA poll conducted the week before the primary: "[Hillary] Clinton holds a commanding lead of 57% to 34% among likely Democratic voters over U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont."[5]

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Hillary Clinton 616,758 54.59%
Democratic Bernie Sanders 460,434 40.75%
Democratic No Preference 37,200 3.29%
Democratic Others (total) 15,375 1.37%
Total votes 1,129,767 100.00%

Republican primary

[edit]
Republican primary results by county.
  Donald Trump
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Ted Cruz
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%

Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:[3][4][7]

Polling

[edit]

According to a WRAL-TV/SurveyUSA poll conducted the week before the primary: "[Donald] Trump tops U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas 41% to 27% among likely GOP voters. U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and Ohio Gov. John Kasich trail far behind, at 14% and 11%, respectively."[5]

Results

[edit]
North Carolina Republican primary, March 15, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 462,413 40.23% 29 0 29
Ted Cruz 422,621 36.76% 27 0 27
John Kasich 145,659 12.67% 9 0 9
Marco Rubio 88,907 7.73% 6 0 6
Ben Carson (withdrawn) 11,019 0.96% 1 0 1
No Preference 6,081 0.53% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 3,893 0.34% 0 0 0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) 3,071 0.27% 0 0 0
Rand Paul (withdrawn) 2,753 0.24% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 1,256 0.11% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 929 0.08% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 663 0.06% 0 0 0
Jim Gilmore (withdrawn) 265 0.02% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 1,149,530 100.00% 72 0 72
Source: The Green Papers

Trump managed to pull off a closer than expected win due to both Cruz and his campaigns performances in different metropolitan areas. Trump was strongest in the Charlotte, Fayetteville and Wilmington areas. Cruz did best in Greensboro, Asheville and the Research Triangle region, where North Carolina's major colleges and capital of Raleigh are located.[8]

Libertarian primary

[edit]
2016 North Carolina Libertarian primary
March 15, 2016 (2016-03-15) 2020 →
 
Candidate Gary Johnson No Preference
Home state New Mexico n/a
Popular vote 2,414 2,067
Percentage 41.48% 35.52%
 
Candidate John Hale Joy Waymire
Home state Kentucky California
Popular vote 329 268
Percentage 5.65% 4.61%
North Carolina results by county
  Gary Johnson
  No Preference
  Tie

Eleven candidates appeared on the Libertarian presidential primary ballot:[3][4]

  • John David Hale
  • Cecil Ince
  • Gary Johnson
  • Steve Kerbel
  • Darryl W. Perry
  • Austin Petersen
  • Derrick Michael Reid
  • Jack Robinson Jr.
  • Rhett Smith
  • Joy Waymire
  • Marc Allan Feldman

Results

[edit]
North Carolina Libertarian presidential primary, March 15, 2016[9]
Candidate Votes Percentage
Gary Johnson 2,414 41.48%
No Preference 2,067 35.52%
John David Hale 329 5.65%
Joy Waymire 268 4.61%
Austin Petersen 189 3.25%
Darryl Perry 118 2.03%
Steve Kerbel 109 1.87%
Derrick Michael Reid 74 1.27%
Cecil Ince 72 1%
Jack Robinson Jr. 70 1.20%
Marc Allan Feldman 66 1.13%
Rhett Smith 43 0.74%
Total 5,739 100%

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
CNN[10] Tossup November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[11] Tossup November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[12] Lean D (flip) November 8, 2016
NBC[13] Tossup November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[14] Tossup November 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[15] Tilt D (flip) November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[16] Lean D (flip) November 7, 2016

Polling

[edit]
See also: Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2016 § North Carolina

Up until the summer of 2016, both Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump were each winning polls, with Trump leading slightly. From late June 2016 to mid September 2016, Clinton gained momentum and had won most polls conducted in the summer. From mid September 2016 to late October, Clinton's momentum increased as she won every poll but one. The latest polls showed a near tie, with both almost evenly matched. The average of the final 3 polls showed Clinton ahead 46% to 45%.[17] While she had a head-to-head lead in the last polls against Trump, polls with Gary Johnson showed the race a lot closer. The last New York Times poll conducted showed Trump and Clinton tied with 44% for each.[17]

Candidates

[edit]

In addition to Clinton, Johnson and Trump, Green Party nominee Jill Stein was granted write-in status by the North Carolina State Board of Elections, the only write-in candidate to qualify.[18][19]

Results

[edit]
State senate district results:
2016 United States presidential election in North Carolina[20]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Donald Trump 2,362,631 49.83%
Democratic Hillary Clinton 2,189,316 46.17%
Libertarian Gary Johnson 130,126 2.74%
Write-in 47,386 1.00%
Green Jill Stein (write-in) 12,105 0.26%
Total votes 4,741,564 100.00%

By county

[edit]
County Donald Trump
Republican 		Hillary Clinton
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Alamance 38,815 54.55% 29,833 41.93% 2,509 3.52% 8,982 12.62% 71,157
Alexander 13,893 76.04% 3,767 20.62% 611 3.34% 10,126 55.42% 18,271
Alleghany 3,814 71.76% 1,306 24.57% 195 3.67% 2,508 47.19% 5,315
Anson 4,506 42.73% 5,859 55.56% 180 1.71% -1,353 -12.83% 10,545
Ashe 9,412 70.11% 3,500 26.07% 512 3.82% 5,912 44.04% 13,424
Avery 6,298 76.35% 1,689 20.48% 262 3.17% 4,609 55.87% 8,249
Beaufort 14,543 60.75% 8,764 36.61% 631 2.64% 5,779 24.14% 23,938
Bertie 3,456 36.97% 5,778 61.82% 113 1.21% -2,322 -24.85% 9,347
Bladen 8,550 53.78% 7,058 44.40% 289 1.82% 1,492 9.38% 15,897
Brunswick 42,720 62.50% 23,282 34.06% 2,349 3.44% 19,438 28.44% 68,351
Buncombe 55,716 40.10% 75,452 54.30% 7,779 5.60% -19,736 -14.20% 138,947
Burke 26,238 67.42% 11,251 28.91% 1,431 3.67% 14,987 38.51% 38,920
Cabarrus 53,819 57.69% 35,521 38.08% 3,949 4.23% 18,298 19.61% 93,289
Caldwell 26,621 73.30% 8,425 23.20% 1,274 3.50% 18,196 50.10% 36,320
Camden 3,546 70.83% 1,274 25.45% 186 3.72% 2,272 45.38% 5,006
Carteret 26,569 70.32% 9,939 26.31% 1,273 3.37% 16,630 44.01% 37,781
Caswell 6,026 54.44% 4,792 43.29% 252 2.27% 1,234 11.15% 11,070
Catawba 48,324 66.79% 21,216 29.32% 2,811 3.89% 27,108 37.47% 72,351
Chatham 17,105 42.92% 21,065 52.86% 1,679 4.22% -3,960 -9.94% 39,849
Cherokee 10,844 76.47% 2,860 20.17% 477 3.36% 7,984 56.30% 14,181
Chowan 4,014 55.53% 2,992 41.39% 222 3.08% 1,022 14.14% 7,228
Clay 4,437 73.83% 1,367 22.75% 206 3.42% 3,070 51.08% 6,010
Cleveland 28,479 63.75% 14,964 33.50% 1,230 2.75% 13,515 30.25% 44,673
Columbus 14,272 60.14% 9,063 38.19% 397 1.67% 5,209 21.95% 23,732
Craven 27,731 59.00% 17,630 37.51% 1,640 3.49% 10,101 21.49% 47,001
Cumberland 51,265 40.21% 71,605 56.16% 4,636 3.63% -20,340 -15.95% 127,506
Currituck 9,163 72.33% 2,913 22.99% 593 4.68% 6,250 49.34% 12,669
Dare 11,460 58.44% 7,222 36.83% 927 4.73% 4,238 21.61% 19,609
Davidson 54,317 72.56% 18,109 24.19% 2,430 3.25% 36,208 48.37% 74,856
Davie 15,602 71.71% 5,270 24.22% 884 4.07% 10,332 47.49% 21,756
Duplin 12,217 58.58% 8,283 39.72% 356 1.70% 3,934 18.86% 20,856
Durham 28,350 18.16% 121,250 77.66% 6,534 4.18% -92,900 -59.50% 156,134
Edgecombe 8,261 33.20% 16,224 65.19% 401 1.61% -7,963 -31.99% 24,886
Forsyth 75,975 42.61% 94,464 52.98% 7,873 4.41% -18,489 -10.37% 178,312
Franklin 16,368 53.90% 12,874 42.39% 1,126 3.71% 3,494 11.51% 30,368
Gaston 61,798 64.09% 31,177 32.33% 3,456 3.58% 30,621 31.76% 96,431
Gates 2,874 53.30% 2,385 44.23% 133 2.47% 489 9.07% 5,392
Graham 3,283 78.77% 768 18.43% 117 2.80% 2,515 60.34% 4,168
Granville 13,591 49.69% 12,909 47.19% 853 3.12% 682 2.50% 27,353
Greene 4,374 54.03% 3,605 44.53% 116 1.44% 769 9.50% 8,095
Guilford 98,062 38.10% 149,248 57.98% 10,095 3.92% -51,186 -19.88% 257,405
Halifax 9,031 35.88% 15,748 62.57% 388 1.55% -6,717 -26.69% 25,167
Harnett 27,614 59.95% 16,737 36.33% 1,714 3.72% 10,877 23.62% 46,065
Haywood 18,929 61.60% 10,473 34.08% 1,325 4.32% 8,456 27.52% 30,727
Henderson 35,809 61.55% 19,827 34.08% 2,540 4.37% 15,982 27.47% 58,176
Hertford 3,099 30.42% 6,910 67.84% 177 1.74% -3,811 -37.42% 10,186
Hoke 7,760 42.57% 9,726 53.35% 744 4.08% -1,966 -10.78% 18,230
Hyde 1,288 55.90% 965 41.88% 51 2.22% 323 14.02% 2,304
Iredell 54,754 66.31% 24,734 29.96% 3,079 3.73% 30,020 36.35% 82,567
Jackson 9,870 52.74% 7,713 41.22% 1,130 6.04% 2,157 11.52% 18,713
Johnston 54,372 63.29% 28,362 33.01% 3,175 3.70% 26,010 30.28% 85,909
Jones 2,974 57.92% 2,065 40.21% 96 1.87% 909 17.71% 5,135
Lee 13,712 54.66% 10,469 41.74% 903 3.60% 3,243 12.92% 25,084
Lenoir 13,613 50.78% 12,634 47.13% 560 2.09% 979 3.65% 26,807
Lincoln 28,806 71.97% 9,897 24.73% 1,320 3.30% 18,909 47.24% 40,023
Macon 12,127 68.38% 4,876 27.50% 731 4.12% 7,251 40.88% 17,734
Madison 6,783 60.19% 3,926 34.84% 560 4.97% 2,857 25.35% 11,269
Martin 5,897 49.29% 5,846 48.86% 221 1.85% 51 0.43% 11,964
McDowell 14,568 73.30% 4,667 23.48% 640 3.22% 9,901 49.82% 19,875
Mecklenburg 155,518 32.89% 294,562 62.29% 22,777 4.82% -139,044 -29.40% 472,857
Mitchell 6,282 77.59% 1,596 19.71% 218 2.70% 4,686 57.88% 8,096
Montgomery 7,130 61.79% 4,150 35.96% 260 2.25% 2,980 25.83% 11,540
Moore 30,490 62.62% 16,329 33.54% 1,873 3.84% 14,161 29.08% 48,692
Nash 23,319 48.92% 23,235 48.75% 1,111 2.33% 84 0.17% 47,665
New Hanover 55,344 49.46% 50,979 45.56% 5,582 4.98% 4,365 3.90% 111,905
Northampton 3,582 36.37% 6,144 62.39% 122 1.24% -2,562 -26.02% 9,848
Onslow 37,122 64.97% 17,514 30.65% 2,499 4.38% 19,608 34.32% 57,135
Orange 18,557 22.54% 59,923 72.78% 3,860 4.68% -41,366 -50.24% 82,340
Pamlico 4,258 61.98% 2,448 35.63% 164 2.39% 1,810 26.35% 6,870
Pasquotank 8,180 47.04% 8,615 49.54% 596 3.42% -435 -2.50% 17,391
Pender 17,639 63.26% 9,354 33.54% 892 3.20% 8,285 29.72% 27,885
Perquimans 4,177 62.27% 2,319 34.57% 212 3.16% 1,858 27.70% 6,708
Person 11,185 57.02% 7,833 39.93% 597 3.05% 3,352 17.09% 19,615
Pitt 35,691 44.32% 41,824 51.94% 3,012 3.74% -6,133 -7.62% 80,527
Polk 6,768 61.90% 3,735 34.16% 431 3.94% 3,033 27.74% 10,934
Randolph 49,430 76.55% 13,194 20.43% 1,951 3.02% 36,236 56.12% 64,575
Richmond 10,383 53.72% 8,501 43.98% 444 2.30% 1,882 9.74% 19,328
Robeson 20,762 50.82% 19,016 46.54% 1,080 2.64% 1,746 4.28% 40,858
Rockingham 26,830 63.46% 14,228 33.65% 1,220 2.89% 12,602 29.81% 42,278
Rowan 42,810 66.51% 19,400 30.14% 2,159 3.35% 23,410 36.37% 64,369
Rutherford 21,871 72.16% 7,512 24.79% 924 3.05% 14,359 47.37% 30,307
Sampson 14,838 57.23% 10,547 40.68% 543 2.09% 4,291 16.55% 25,928
Scotland 6,256 44.92% 7,319 52.55% 353 2.53% -1,063 -7.63% 13,928
Stanly 21,964 73.42% 7,094 23.71% 859 2.87% 14,870 49.71% 29,917
Stokes 17,116 75.90% 4,665 20.69% 769 3.41% 12,451 55.21% 22,550
Surry 23,671 73.52% 7,488 23.26% 1,037 3.22% 16,183 50.26% 32,196
Swain 3,565 58.21% 2,196 35.86% 363 5.93% 1,369 22.35% 6,124
Transylvania 10,520 58.87% 6,558 36.70% 791 4.43% 3,962 22.17% 17,869
Tyrrell 975 56.07% 720 41.40% 44 2.53% 255 14.67% 1,739
Union 66,707 63.10% 34,337 32.48% 4,666 4.42% 32,370 30.62% 105,710
Vance 7,332 36.70% 12,229 61.22% 416 2.08% -4,897 -24.52% 19,977
Wake 196,082 37.16% 302,736 57.38% 28,806 5.46% -106,654 -20.22% 527,624
Warren 3,214 32.66% 6,413 65.16% 215 2.18% -3,199 -32.50% 9,842
Washington 2,564 41.59% 3,510 56.93% 91 1.48% -946 -15.34% 6,165
Watauga 13,697 45.68% 14,138 47.15% 2,150 7.17% -441 -1.47% 29,985
Wayne 27,540 54.33% 21,770 42.95% 1,379 2.72% 5,770 11.38% 50,689
Wilkes 23,752 75.89% 6,638 21.21% 906 2.90% 17,114 54.68% 31,296
Wilson 17,531 45.97% 19,663 51.56% 941 2.47% -2,132 -5.59% 38,135
Yadkin 13,880 78.76% 3,160 17.93% 584 3.31% 10,720 60.83% 17,624
Yancey 6,385 64.11% 3,196 32.09% 379 3.80% 3,189 32.02% 9,960
Totals 2,362,631 49.83% 2,189,316 46.17% 189,617 4.00% 173,315 3.66% 4,741,564
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Trump won 10 of North Carolina's 13 congressional districts.

District Trump Clinton Representative
1st 30% 67% G. K. Butterfield
2nd 54% 42% Renee Ellmers
George Holding
3rd 60% 36% Walter B. Jones
4th 27% 68% David Price
5th 57% 39% Virginia Foxx
6th 56% 41% Mark Walker
7th 57% 39% David Rouzer
8th 56% 41% Richard Hudson
9th 54% 42% Robert Pittenger
10th 60% 36% Patrick McHenry
11th 62% 33% Mark Meadows
12th 28% 68% Alma Adams
13th 53% 44% Ted Budd

Analysis

[edit]

Prior to the 2016 election, North Carolina had been a Republican stronghold since 1968 with the state voting Democratic only once between then and 2008. In 2008, North Carolina voted Democratic for only the second time in 40 years. Although the state returned to the Republican column in 2012, when the party's nominee, Mitt Romney, carried the state, it did so only narrowly, cementing its new status as a battleground state. Throughout the 2016 campaign, North Carolina was considered by most a tossup state, with the outcome going into election night heavily debated. The Trump campaign saw winning North Carolina as crucial in order for Trump to win the Electoral College; conversely, the Clinton campaign felt that it was vital for them to win the state to block Trump's path to an Electoral College win. Both Trump and Clinton campaigned in the state shortly before the general election.[21][22]

Despite winning the state, Trump, in some ways, under-performed in comparison to Romney in 2012. Romney won a majority of the vote in 2012 with 50.4% while Trump only managed a plurality of 49.8%. Similarly, Clinton also under-performed in comparison to Obama, with Clinton winning only 46.2% in comparison to Obama's 48.35%. This situation was the result of the spike in votes for third party candidates in the state as 4% of North Carolinians voted for a candidate other than the Democratic and Republican nominees in 2016 as opposed to just 1.26% in 2012.

An increase in turnout in North Carolina allowed both Trump and Clinton to out-perform Romney and Obama in terms of the total votes each candidate received. In 2016 Trump won around 92,000 more votes than Romney did in 2012 while Clinton won around 10,000 more than Obama. Furthermore, Trump also outperformed Romney by winning North Carolina by a greater margin than Romney was able to as Trump won the state over Clinton by 3.7% compared to the 2% margin Romney won over Obama. Trump's win in North Carolina marked the 9th time the state has voted Republican in the last 10 elections and, therefore, the state continues to lean more Republican at the presidential level.

As of 2024, this is the last time the Democratic candidate won Scotland County, part of a trio of formerly solidly Democratic rural counties in southern North Carolina (adjacent Robeson and Richmond counties would flip in this election).

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Voter turnout in United States elections".
  2. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. September 19, 2019. Retrieved December 18, 2020.
  3. ^ a b c Binker, Mark (January 5, 2016). "NC approves 27 candidates for presidential primary ballots". WRAL.com. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  4. ^ a b c [1] [dead link]
  5. ^ a b Burns, Matthew (March 8, 2016). "WRAL News poll: Trump, Clinton poised to win NC". WRAL.com. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  6. ^ "NC SBE Election Contest Details". Er.ncsbe.gov. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  7. ^ "NC SBE Election Contest Details". Er.ncsbe.gov. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  8. ^ "Live results from the North Carolina primary". graphics.latimes.com. Retrieved April 26, 2016.
  9. ^ "NC SBE Contest Results". North Carolina State Board of Elections. Government of North Carolina. March 16, 2015. Retrieved March 16, 2016.
  10. ^ Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved April 17, 2019.
  11. ^ "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Archived from the original on February 7, 2019. Retrieved April 17, 2019.
  12. ^ "2016 Predicted Electoral Map". Electoral-vote.com. Retrieved April 17, 2019.
  13. ^ Todd, Chuck (November 7, 2016). "NBC's final battleground map shows a lead for Clinton". NBC News. Retrieved April 17, 2019.
  14. ^ "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved April 17, 2019.
  15. ^ "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  16. ^ Sabato, Larry (November 7, 2016). "The Crystal Ball's 2016 Electoral College ratings". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved April 17, 2019.
  17. ^ a b "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - North Carolina: Trump vs. Clinton".
  18. ^ "NC write-in votes won't count unless they're for Jill Stein". newsobserver.com.
  19. ^ "Your Write-In Vote Might Not Be Counted In NC". wfmynews2.com.
  20. ^ "11/08/2016 OFFICIAL GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS - STATEWIDE". North Carolina State Board of Elections. Retrieved December 5, 2023.
  21. ^ Bradner, Eric (November 3, 2016). "Why North Carolina is so important in 2016". CNN. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  22. ^ Catanese, David (November 4, 2016). "Clinton's North Carolina Firewall". U.S. News & World Report. Retrieved February 10, 2019.

Further reading

[edit]
[edit]
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