2016 United States Senate election in Iowa
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  Grassley: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Judge: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Tie: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Iowa |
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The 2016 United States Senate election in Iowa was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Iowa, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Incumbent Republican Senator Chuck Grassley won reelection to a seventh term in office. Primary elections were held June 7, 2016,[1] with Grassley facing no primary opposition, and former lieutenant governor Patty Judge winning the Democratic nomination. Grassley won a seventh term in a sixth consecutive landslide and outperformed Donald Trump, who also won the state that year; nevertheless, this represented Grassley's worst re-election performance at the time since his first race in 1980, until 6 years later when Michael Franken would not only make Grassley fall below 60% of the vote, but also cut his winning percentage in half and flip several counties (namely Black Hawk, Linn, Story and Polk) that Grassley carried in this election.[2]
Background
[edit]Republican Chuck Grassley was first elected to the Senate in 1980, defeating Democratic incumbent John Culver by 53% to 46%. Since then, Grassley has been re-elected five times, most recently in 2010, on each occasion taking at least 64% of the vote.
Despite speculation that Grassley, who turned 83 years old in 2016, might retire,[3] he announced in September 2013 that he was "making plans to run for re-election", but added that "it's not taking much of my time. I'm concentrating on doing my job for Iowans."[4]
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Chuck Grassley, incumbent senator[4][5]
Withdrawn
[edit]Declined
[edit]- Pat Grassley, state representative and grandson of Chuck Grassley[9]
- Steve King, U.S. Representative[10]
- Tom Latham, former U.S. Representative[10]
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Chuck Grassley (Incumbent) | 90,089 | 98.36% | |
| Republican | Write-ins | 1,500 | 1.64% | |
| Total votes | 91,589 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Tom Fiegen, former state senator and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010[5]
- Rob Hogg, state senator[12]
- Patty Judge, former lieutenant governor and former Iowa Secretary of Agriculture[13][14][15]
- Bob Krause, former state representative, nominee for state treasurer in 1978, candidate for Mayor of Waterloo in 1982 and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010[16]
Withdrawn
[edit]- Ray Zirkelbach, former state representative[17][18]
Declined
[edit]- Christie Vilsack, former First Lady of Iowa and nominee for Iowa's 4th congressional district in 2012[9]
- Tom Vilsack, United States Secretary of Agriculture and former governor of Iowa[10]
- Chet Culver, former governor of Iowa[9][19]
- Michael Gronstal, Majority Leader of the Iowa Senate and Chairman of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee[9][20]
- Dave Loebsack, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)[10][21]
- Andy McGuire, chairwoman of the Iowa Democratic Party and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2006[5]
- Tyler Olson, former state representative, former chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party, and candidate for governor in 2014[22][23]
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Patty Judge |
Rob Hogg |
Bob Krause |
Tom Fiegen |
None/Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Des Moines Register[24] | May 30 – June 2, 2016 | 542 | ± 4.2% | 42% | 25% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 15% |
| KBUR-AM 1490[25] | May 31 – June 1, 2016 | 1,361 | ± 3.0% | 37% | 31% | 3% | 6% | – | 23% |
Results
[edit]
Fiegen—30–40%
Hogg—60–70%
Hogg—50–60%
Hogg—40–50%
Hogg—30–40%
Judge—80–90%
Judge—70–80%
Judge—60–70%
Judge—50–60%
Judge—40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Patty Judge | 46,322 | 47.62% | |
| Democratic | Rob Hogg | 37,801 | 38.86% | |
| Democratic | Tom Fiegen | 6,573 | 6.76% | |
| Democratic | Bob Krause | 6,425 | 6.60% | |
| Democratic | Write-ins | 154 | 0.16% | |
| Total votes | 97,275 | 100.00% | ||
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[26] | Likely R | November 2, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[27] | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[28] | Safe R | November 3, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[29] | Safe R | November 8, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[30] | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
Debates
[edit]| Dates | Location | Grassley | Judge | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 19, 2016 | Sioux City, Iowa | Participant | Participant | [31] |
Polling
[edit] | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chuck Grassley (R) |
Patty Judge (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey[32] | November 1–7, 2016 | 1,781 | ± 4.6% | 57% | 39% | — | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey[33] | Oct 31–Nov 6, 2016 | 1,598 | ± 4.6% | 56% | 39% | — | 5% |
| Des Moines Register/Selzer[34] | November 1–4, 2016 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 56% | 33% | 2% | 4% |
| Emerson College[35] | November 1–3, 2016 | 700 | ± 3.6% | 60% | 32% | 4% | 5% |
| Loras College[36] | November 1–3, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 53% | 37% | 1% | 8% |
| SurveyMonkey[37] | Oct 28–Nov 3, 2016 | 1,469 | ± 4.6% | 57% | 39% | — | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey[38] | Oct 27–Nov 2, 2016 | 1,226 | ± 4.6% | 57% | 40% | — | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey[39] | Oct 26–Nov 1, 2016 | 867 | ± 4.6% | 56% | 41% | — | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey[40] | October 25–31, 2016 | 984 | ± 4.6% | 56% | 41% | — | 3% |
| Quinnipiac University[41] | October 20–26, 2016 | 791 | ± 3.5% | 56% | 38% | — | 5% |
| Washington Post/SurveyMonkey[42] | October 8–16, 2016 | 1,135 | ± 0.5% | 56% | 40% | — | 5% |
| Google Consumer Surveys[43] | October 12–14, 2016 | 523 | ± 4.2% | 56% | 41% | — | 3% |
| The Times-Picayune/Lucid[44] | October 7–10, 2016 | 917 | ± 3.0% | 51% | 39% | — | 11% |
| Des Moines Register/Selzer[45] | October 3–6, 2016 | 642 | ± 3.5% | 53% | 36% | 2% | 6% |
| Loras College[46] | September 20–22, 2016 | 491 | ± 4.4% | 54% | 37% | — | 9% |
| Quinnipiac University[47] | September 13–21, 2016 | 612 | ± 4.0% | 55% | 43% | — | 2% |
| Monmouth University[48] | September 12–14, 2016 | 404 | ± 4.9% | 56% | 39% | 2% | 3% |
| RABA Research[49] | September 6–8, 2016 | 1,054 | ± 3.0% | 50% | 37% | — | 13% |
| Emerson College[50] | Aug 31–Sept 1, 2016 | 600 | ± 3.9% | 51% | 40% | 3% | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling[51] | August 30–31, 2016 | 827 | ± 3.4% | 49% | 43% | — | 8% |
| CBS News/YouGov[52] | August 17–19, 2016 | 987 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 38% | 1% | 15% |
| Quinnipiac University[53] | August 9–16, 2016 | 846 | ± 3.4% | 51% | 42% | — | 6% |
| Suffolk University[54] | August 8–10, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 52% | 42% | — | 6% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist[55] | August 3–7, 2016 | 899 | ± 3.3% | 52% | 42% | 1% | 5% |
| CBS News/YouGov[56] | July 13–15, 2016 | 998 | ± 4.8% | 45% | 37% | 2% | 16% |
| Monmouth University[57] | July 8–11, 2016 | 401 | ± 4.9% | 52% | 42% | — | 6% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist[58] | July 5–10, 2016 | 822 | ± 3.4% | 52% | 42% | 1% | 5% |
| Loras College[59] | June 24–28, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | — | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling[60] | June 22–23, 2016 | 897 | ± 3.3% | 46% | 39% | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[61] | June 9–13, 2016 | 630 | ± 3.9% | 48% | 41% | — | 11% |
Hypothetical polling
with Rob Hogg
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chuck Grassley (R) |
Rob Hogg (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[62] | January 8–10, 2016 | 1,901 | ± 2.3% | 52% | 28% | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling[63] | December 10–13, 2015 | 1,426 | ± 2.6% | 54% | 29% | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling[64] | October 30–November 1, 2015 | 1,668 | ± 2.4% | 53% | 29% | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling[65] | August 7–9, 2015 | 1,500 | ± 2.5% | 52% | 28% | 20% |
 | This article's use of external links may not follow Wikipedia's policies or guidelines. (August 2016) |
with Tom Fiegen
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chuck Grassley (R) |
Tom Fiegen (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[62] | January 8–10, 2016 | 1,901 | ± 2.3% | 53% | 29% | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling[63] | December 10–13, 2015 | 1,426 | ± 2.6% | 54% | 29% | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling[64] | October 30–November 1, 2015 | 1,668 | ± 2.4% | 54% | 30% | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling[65] | August 7–9, 2015 | 1,500 | ± 2.5% | 53% | 30% | 17% |
with Bob Krause
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chuck Grassley (R) |
Bob Krause (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[62] | January 8–10, 2016 | 1,901 | ± 2.3% | 52% | 28% | 20% |
| Public Policy Polling[63] | December 10–13, 2015 | 1,426 | ± 2.6% | 53% | 28% | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling[64] | October 30–November 1, 2015 | 1,668 | ± 2.4% | 52% | 28% | 21% |
| Public Policy Polling[65] | August 7–9, 2015 | 1,500 | ± 2.5% | 51% | 29% | 20% |
with Tom Vilsack
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chuck Grassley (R) |
Tom Vilsack (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[66] | September 25–28, 2014 | 1,192 | ± 2.8% | 51% | 42% | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling[67] | May 15–19, 2014 | 914 | ± 3.3% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling[68] | February 20–23, 2014 | 869 | ± 3.3% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Chuck Grassley (incumbent) | 926,007 | 60.09% | −4.26% | |
| Democratic | Patty Judge | 549,460 | 35.66% | +2.36% | |
| Libertarian | Charles Aldrich | 41,794 | 2.71% | +0.44% | |
| Independent | Jim Hennager | 17,649 | 1.15% | N/A | |
| Independent | Michael Luick-Thrams | 4,441 | 0.29% | N/A | |
| n/a | Write-ins | 1,685 | 0.11% | +0.03% | |
| Total votes | 1,541,036 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
By congressional district
[edit]Grassley won all 4 of the congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.[70]
| District | Grassley | Judge | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 58% | 38% | Rod Blum |
| 2nd | 56% | 39% | Dave Loebsack |
| 3rd | 58% | 37% | David Young |
| 4th | 68% | 28% | Steve King |
References
[edit]- ^ Iowa Secretary of State, Primary Election, sos.iowa.gov
- ^ Miller, Stephen. "Republican Chuck Grassley wins eighth term, defeats Mike Franken in Iowa US Senate race". Des Moines Register. Retrieved February 16, 2023.
- ^ Matt Kelley (January 29, 2013). "Senator Grassley not ready to consider joining Harkin in retirement". Radio Iowa. Retrieved May 22, 2014.
- ^ a b Livingston, Abby (September 20, 2013). "Grassley Planning to Run Again in 2016". Roll Call. Archived from the original on September 21, 2013. Retrieved September 20, 2013.
- ^ a b c Jacobs, Jennifer; Noble, Jason (March 31, 2015). "And he's off: Event kicks off Grassley's re-election campaign". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved March 31, 2015.
- ^ Porter, Jake (January 19, 2016). "Primary Challenger Announces Against Grassley". Iowa Free Press. Retrieved February 14, 2016.
- ^ "IA-Sen: Robert Rees challenging Chuck Grassley in GOP primary". Bleeding Heartland. February 12, 2016. Retrieved February 14, 2016.
- ^ "IA-Sen: Robert Rees ends GOP primary challenge to Chuck Grassley". Bleeding Heartland. March 15, 2016. Retrieved March 17, 2016.
- ^ a b c d Cheney, Kyle (December 29, 2014). "16 in '16: The new battle for the Senate". Politico. Retrieved December 29, 2014.
- ^ a b c d Cahn, Emily (June 26, 2013). "Hawkeye Politicians Finally See Some Opportunity in 2014 | Farm Team". Roll Call. Retrieved August 14, 2013.
- ^ a b "Official Results" (PDF). Iowa Secretary of State. Retrieved July 21, 2016.
- ^ Petroski, William (September 21, 2015). "Hogg to seek Grassley's seat in U.S. Senate". Des Moines Register. Retrieved September 22, 2015.
- ^ Noble, Jason (February 25, 2016). "Challenge Grassley? Patty Judge is thinking about it". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved February 25, 2016.
- ^ Steinhauer, Jennifer (March 3, 2016). "Charles Grassley Faces Formidable Challenger in Iowa Senate Race". The New York Times. Retrieved March 3, 2016.
- ^ Noble, Jason (March 4, 2016). "It's official: Patty Judge challenges Chuck Grassley". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved March 4, 2016.
- ^ "Krause ends bid for governor, endorses fellow Democrat Hatch". Des Moines Register. January 2, 2014. Archived from the original on January 3, 2014. Retrieved January 3, 2014.
- ^ Lynch, James Q. (November 7, 2015). "Zirkelbach is fourth candidate in Democratic U.S. Senate race". The Gazette. Retrieved February 14, 2016.
- ^ "IA-Sen: Patty Judge thinking about challenging Chuck Grassley". Bleeding Heartland. February 26, 2016. Retrieved February 26, 2016.
- ^ Noble, Jason (March 4, 2016). "Former Iowa Gov. Chet Culver tells me he WILL NOT run for Congress or any other political office in 2016". Twitter. Retrieved March 4, 2016.
- ^ Petroski, William (January 26, 2016). "61 legislators endorse Hogg's U.S. Senate bid". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved February 14, 2016.
- ^ Henderson, O. Kay (April 21, 2015). "Loebsack in Des Moines to talk 2016 campaign strategy". Radio Iowa. Retrieved July 23, 2015.
- ^ Rynard, Pat (May 28, 2015). "Rumor Roundup: Ravi Patel's Super PAC, Webb's Loss, Adams In, Bertrand for Governor". Iowa Starting Line. Retrieved May 28, 2015.
- ^ "Two bizarre takes on the IA-Sen Democratic primary". Bleeding Heartland. March 7, 2016. Retrieved March 8, 2016.
- ^ Des Moines Register
- ^ KBUR-AM 1490
- ^ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
- ^ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
- ^ "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
- ^ "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
- ^ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
- ^ Full debate - C-SPAN
- ^ SurveyMonkey
- ^ SurveyMonkey
- ^ Des Moines Register/Selzer
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Loras College Archived November 6, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ SurveyMonkey
- ^ SurveyMonkey
- ^ SurveyMonkey
- ^ SurveyMonkey
- ^ Quinnipiac University Archived July 30, 2019, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Washington Post/SurveyMonkey Archived October 19, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Google Consumer Surveys
- ^ The Times-Picayune/Lucid
- ^ Des Moines Register/Selzer
- ^ Loras College
- ^ Quinnipiac University Archived September 24, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Monmouth University
- ^ RABA Research Archived September 13, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Public Policy Polling Archived September 9, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ CBS News/YouGov
- ^ Quinnipiac University Archived October 14, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Suffolk University[permanent dead link]
- ^ NBC/WSJ/Marist
- ^ CBS News/YouGov
- ^ Monmouth University
- ^ NBC/WSJ/Marist
- ^ Loras College Archived July 3, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ a b c Public Policy Polling
- ^ a b c Public Policy Polling
- ^ a b c Public Policy Polling
- ^ a b c Public Policy Polling
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ "Official Results General Election" (PDF). Iowa Secretary of State. Retrieved December 19, 2016.
- ^ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting.
External links
[edit]Official campaign websites (Archived)