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2022 United States Senate election in Iowa

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For related races, see 2022 United States Senate elections.

2022 United States Senate election in Iowa
← 2016 November 8, 2022 2028 →
 
Nominee Chuck Grassley Michael Franken
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 681,501 533,330
Percentage 56.01% 43.84%
Grassley:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Franken:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      No votes
U.S. senator before election

Chuck Grassley
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Chuck Grassley
Republican

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The 2022 United States Senate election in Iowa was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Iowa. Incumbent Republican Senator Chuck Grassley defeated Democratic nominee Michael Franken to win re-election to an eighth term.[1]

Grassley was first elected in 1980 and was most recently re-elected in 2016. Grassley, who turned 89 years old on September 17, 2022, ran for reelection to an eighth term.[2] With U.S. Senator Patrick Leahy retiring the same year, he became the second-oldest person ever to be re-elected for another term (behind Strom Thurmond in 1996 at age 93), on January 3, 2023, upon the departure of Patrick Leahy from the United States Senate Chuck Grassley became the most senior member in the Senate, and on January 4, 2023, he became the longest-serving Republican senator in history (overtaking Orrin Hatch), as well as the most senior member of Congress since January 3, 2023.

Despite his victory, this was Grassley's closest Senate race since he was first elected in 1980 and the first election since that time in which he did not crack 60% of the vote. Franken also beat Grassley in Linn, Story, and Polk counties, all of which Grassley had won in every election since 1986. In addition, this election was the first time that Grassley lost Black Hawk County. This election also sought the Class III seat's worst performance by a Republican since 1962, and best performance by a Democrat since 1980.

Republican primary

[edit]
State Senator Jim Carlin challenged Grassley in the primary.

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Fundraising

[edit]
Candidate Total receipts Coverage ending
Chuck Grassley $6,881,288 Coverage ending: May 18, 2022[8]
Jim Carlin $508,308 Coverage ending: May 18, 2022[8]

Results

[edit]
Results by county
  Grassley
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Republican primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Chuck Grassley (incumbent) 143,634 73.34%
Republican Jim Carlin 51,891 26.50%
Write-in 312 0.16%
Total votes 195,837 100.0%

Democratic primary

[edit]
Former U.S. Representative Abby Finkenauer finished second in the primary.

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Campaign

[edit]

Former U.S. Representative Abby Finkenauer was the original frontrunner in the Democratic primary, with her campaign being backed by several prominent politicians and labor unions, as well as the influential political action committee EMILY's List.[25] However, in an upset, retired vice-admiral Michael Franken managed to slowly overtake her as the perceived frontrunner, assisted by an effective campaign that highlighted his leadership credentials.[25]

Fundraising

[edit]
Candidate Total receipts Coverage ending
Abby Finkenauer $3,740,881 Coverage ending: May 18, 2022[8]
Michael Franken $2,863,882 Coverage ending: May 18, 2022[8]
Glenn Hurst $129,618 Coverage ending: May 18, 2022[8]

Endorsements

[edit]
Abby Finkenauer

U.S. Representatives

State official

State legislators

Labor unions

Organizations

Glenn Hurst

Organizations

Individuals

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Abby
Finkenauer 		Michael
Franken 		Glenn
Hurst 		Undecided
Change Research (D)[40][A] May 4–8, 2022 866 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 42% 4% 14%
Change Research (D)[40][A] April 6–11, 2022 416 (LV) ± 6.3% 53% 26% 7% 14%
GBAO (D)[41][B] March 30 – April 3, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 64% 15% 6% 15%

Results

[edit]
Results by county
  Franken
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Finkenauer
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Democratic primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Michael Franken 86,527 55.17%
Democratic Abby Finkenauer 62,581 39.90%
Democratic Glenn Hurst 7,571 4.83%
Write-in 158 0.10%
Total votes 156,837 100.0%

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[42] Solid R November 7, 2022
Inside Elections[43] Solid R August 25, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[44] Safe R August 31, 2022
Politico[45] Likely R October 18, 2022
RCP[46] Likely R October 15, 2022
Fox News[47] Likely R August 22, 2022
DDHQ[48] Solid R July 20, 2022
538[49] Solid R September 6, 2022
The Economist[50] Safe R September 7, 2022

Debates

[edit]
2022 United States Senate general election in Iowa debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican Democratic
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee

 W  Withdrawn

Chuck Grassley Michael Franken
1 October 6, 2022 Iowa PBS O. Kay Henderson [51] P P

Endorsements

[edit]
Chuck Grassley (R)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

State officials

State legislators

Individuals

Newspapers

Organization

Michael Franken (D)

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

State officials

State legislators

Local officials

Labor unions

Newspaper and other media

Organizations

Individuals

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Chuck
Grassley (R) 		Michael
Franken (D) 		Undecided
[b] 		Margin
FiveThirtyEight[100] October 2 – November 8, 2022 November 8, 2022 51.8% 42.2% 6.0% Grassley +9.6
270towin[101] October 26 – November 5, 2022 November 8, 2022 53.0% 42.7% 4.3% Grassley +10.3
Average 52.4% 42.5% 5.1% Grassley +9.9

Graphical summary

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Chuck
Grassley (R) 		Michael
Franken (D) 		Other Undecided
Selzer & Co.[102] October 31 – November 3, 2022 801 (LV) ± 3.5% 53% 41% 4%[c] 2%
Cygnal (R)[103][C] October 26–27, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 54% 43% – 3%
Civiqs[104] October 22–25, 2022 623 (LV) ± 5.2% 52% 44% 3%[d] 2%
The Tarrance Group (R)[105][D] October 15–19, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.1% 53% 42% – 4%
Change Research (D)[106][A] October 14–18, 2022 1,008 (LV) ± 3.3% 48% 45% – 6%
Selzer & Co.[107] October 9–12, 2022 620 (LV) ± 3.9% 46% 43% 8%[e] 3%
Emerson College[108] October 2–4, 2022 959 (LV) ± 3.1% 49% 38% 4% 9%
Cygnal (R)[109][C] October 2–4, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 54% 40% – 6%
Change Research (D)[110][A] September 3–8, 2022 1,143 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 44% – 8%
Cygnal (R)[111][C] July 13–14, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 52% 43% – 5%
Selzer & Co.[112] July 10–13, 2022 597 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 39% 7% 5%
Change Research (D)[113][A] June 30 – July 4, 2022 1,488 (LV) ± 2.7% 49% 44% – 7%
Change Research (D)[114][A] April 6–11, 2022 1,070 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 42% – 13%
Hypothetical polling

Chuck Grassley vs. Abby Finkenauer

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Chuck
Grassley (R) 		Abby
Finkenauer (D) 		Other Undecided
Moore Information Group (R)[115] March 8–13, 2022 400 (LV) ± 5.0% 45% 36% 6% 14%
Cygnal (R)[116][C] February 20–22, 2022 610 (LV) ± 3.9% 53% 39% – 8%
Data for Progress (D)[117] December 2–13, 2021 770 (LV) ± 4.0% 53% 39% – 8%
Cygnal (R)[118][C] October 18–19, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 55% 39% – 6%
Selzer & Co.[119] September 12–15, 2021 620 (LV) ± 3.9% 55% 37% 1%[f] 7%

Results

[edit]
2022 United States Senate election in Iowa
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Chuck Grassley (incumbent) 681,501 56.01% −4.08%
Democratic Michael Franken 533,330 43.84% +8.18%
Write-in 1,815 0.15% +0.04%
Total votes 1,216,646 100% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Grassley won all 4 congressional districts.[120]

District Grassley Franken Representative
1st 53% 47% Mariannette Miller-Meeks
2nd 55% 45% Ashley Hinson
3rd 51% 48% Cindy Axne (117th Congress)
Zach Nunn (118th Congress)
4th 66% 34% Randy Feenstra

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ "Someone else" with 3%; "Don't want to tell" with 1%
  4. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  5. ^ "Someone else" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 4%
  6. ^ "Would not vote" (volunteered answer) with 1%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c d e f This poll was sponsored by Franken's campaign
  2. ^ This poll was sponsored by Finkenauer's campaign
  3. ^ a b c d e This poll was sponsored by the Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation
  4. ^ Poll conducted for the NRSC.

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Chuck Grassley Defeats Mike Franken, Wins Eighth Senate Term". nz.news.yahoo.com. November 9, 2022. Retrieved November 9, 2022.
  2. ^ a b "Grassley will seek reelection, boosting GOP's majority hopes". Politico. September 24, 2021. Retrieved September 24, 2021.
  3. ^ Hall, Jacob (February 12, 2021). "BREAKING: State Sen. Jim Carlin is running for United States Senate seat currently held by Chuck Grassley, says if our votes do not count, we no longer have a representative government". The Iowa Standard. Retrieved February 15, 2021.
  4. ^ Dunlap, Natalie. "Rep. Ashley Hinson announces reelection campaign, with support of Iowa Republicans, Sen. Ted Cruz". www.dailyiowan.com. The Daily Iowan. Retrieved August 29, 2021.
  5. ^ a b c d e f Dunlap, Natalie (September 24, 2021). "Sen. Chuck Grassley will seek an eighth term". The Daily Iowan. Archived from the original on September 25, 2021. Retrieved September 30, 2021.
  6. ^ a b Belin, Laura (February 20, 2020). "Chuck Grassley says grandson's "never expressed" interest in U.S. Senate bid". Bleeding Heartland. Retrieved September 14, 2020.
  7. ^ Rood, Lee (November 24, 2021). "Grassley endorsed by Iowans who worked in Trump administration". The Waterloo-Cedar Falls Courier. Retrieved November 30, 2021.
  8. ^ a b c d e "FEC Iowa Senate Candidate financial totals". FEC. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
  9. ^ a b "Official Results - 2022 Primary Election". IOWA SECRETARY OF STATE. Retrieved June 11, 2022.
  10. ^ Lynch, James Q. (March 15, 2021). "Iowa Democrat group looks to draft retired admiral Mike Franken to challenge Chuck Grassley". The Gazette (Cedar Rapids, Iowa). Retrieved April 3, 2021.
  11. ^ "Can't let the "philosophically unhinged" win control of Senate". The Gazette (Cedar Rapids, Iowa). Retrieved August 3, 2021.
  12. ^ "Michael Franken launches US Senate campaign challenging Chuck Grassley". We Are Iowa. October 14, 2021. Retrieved October 14, 2021.
  13. ^ Gruber-Miller, Stephen (April 15, 2022). "U.S. Senate candidate Abby Finkenauer will appear on primary ballot, Iowa Supreme Court rules". Des Moines Register. Retrieved April 15, 2022.
  14. ^ Gruber-Miller, Stephen (July 29, 2021). "Democrat Glenn Hurst, a rural Iowa doctor and city council member, is running for U.S. Senate". The Des Moines Register. Gannett. Archived from the original on September 24, 2021. Retrieved September 24, 2021.
  15. ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne. "Bob Krause to run for U.S. Senate, aiming for Chuck Grassley's seat". www.desmoinesregister.com. Des Moines Register. Retrieved October 7, 2021.
  16. ^ "Krause withdraws from Iowa Senate Race". KCRG. March 14, 2022. Archived from the original on March 14, 2022. Retrieved March 17, 2022.
  17. ^ a b "Mike Franken has the right experience, perspective". Bleeding Heartland. June 2, 2022. Retrieved June 2, 2022.
  18. ^ a b c d e f g "Dave Muhlbauer drops out of 2022 Senate race". The Gazette. November 23, 2021. Retrieved November 23, 2021.
  19. ^ Greenwood, Max (May 24, 2021). "First Democrat announces Senate bid against Iowa's Grassley". TheHill. Retrieved May 24, 2021.
  20. ^ "Campaign Almanac: Ashley's Army returns for 2022 race". The Gazette. April 19, 2022. Retrieved May 17, 2022.
  21. ^ a b Pfannenstiel, Brianne. "Cindy Axne to endorse Abby Finkenauer for U.S. Senate — an indication she will not seek the seat herself". Des Moines Register. Retrieved August 2, 2021.
  22. ^ Mutnick, Ally; Arkin, James (May 27, 2021). "Abby Finkenauer moves toward Iowa Senate run". Politico. Retrieved May 27, 2021.
  23. ^ Murphy, Erin (April 23, 2021). "State Auditor Rob Sand considering run for Iowa governor or U.S. Senate". The Gazette (Cedar Rapids, Iowa).
  24. ^ "Iowa Democrat J.D. Scholten won't seek office in 2022, narrowing field of possible contenders". MSN.
  25. ^ a b "What went right for Mike Franken and wrong for Abby Finkenauer". Bleeding Heartland. June 8, 2022. Retrieved September 5, 2022.
  26. ^ "Campaign Almanac: Loebsack endorses Finkenauer". The Daily Nonpareil. July 28, 2021. Retrieved August 2, 2021.
  27. ^ "Campaign Almanac: Fitzgerald endorses Finkenauer". The Daily Nonpareil. August 26, 2021. Retrieved August 26, 2021.
  28. ^ "Campaign Almanac: Former Iowa Senate leader endorses Finkenauer for U.S. Senate". The Gazette. May 11, 2022.
  29. ^ "Campaign Almanac: Union endorses Finkenauer". The Daily Nonpareil. September 3, 2021. Retrieved September 3, 2021.
  30. ^ "Democrats question Mariannette Miller-Meeks' finances". The Gazette. September 15, 2021. Retrieved September 16, 2021.
  31. ^ Murphy, Erin (September 22, 2021). "Campaign Almanac for Wednesday, September 22, 2021". Quad-City Times. Archived from the original on September 22, 2021. Retrieved September 30, 2021.
  32. ^ "Campaign Almanac for Tuesday, September 7, 2021". The Daily Nonpareil. September 7, 2021. Retrieved September 8, 2021.
  33. ^ Montana, Tony. "USW Proudly Endorses Abby Finkenauer for Senate". PR Newswire (Press release). Retrieved September 1, 2021.
  34. ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne. "Iowa Democrat Abby Finkenauer backed by EMILY's List in Senate race". www.desmoinesregister.com. The Des Moines Register. Retrieved December 16, 2021.
  35. ^ "2022 Feminist Majority PAC Endorsements". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved April 9, 2022.
  36. ^ "Giffords PAC Endorses Abby Finkenauer for US Senate". www.giffords.org. February 22, 2022.
  37. ^ "LCV ACTION FUND ANNOUNCES FIRST ROUND OF NON-INCUMBENT SENATE ENDORSEMENTS". www.lcv.org. February 2, 2022. Retrieved February 2, 2022.
  38. ^ a b "Campaign Almanac: Abby Finkenauer poll shows her with strong lead in Iowa U.S. Senate primary race". The Gazette. April 7, 2022. Retrieved May 17, 2022.
  39. ^ "Marianne Williamson's Candidate Summit". Candidate Summit. Retrieved December 12, 2021.
  40. ^ a b Change Research (D)
  41. ^ GBAO (D)
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  43. ^ "Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
  44. ^ "2022 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved January 28, 2021.
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  47. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. August 22, 2022. Retrieved August 22, 2022.
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  51. ^ Youtube
  52. ^ "Democrat Max Baucus is endorsing Republican Chuck Grassley in his reelection bid. It's a rare bipartisan move in these polarizing times". Politico.
  53. ^ "Video Mike Pence campaigns in Iowa for GOP candidates". ABC News.
  54. ^ "Campaign Almanac: NRA, Pompeo endorse Grassley". Quad-City Times. May 6, 2022. Retrieved November 2, 2022.
  55. ^ "Former President Donald Trump endorses Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley: 'A great American patriot'". desmoinesregister.com. Retrieved October 10, 2021.
  56. ^ "US Sen. Marsha Blackburn, campaigning in Iowa: 'I am not' running for president". The Des Moines Register.
  57. ^ Steinhauser, Paul (August 17, 2022). "Ted Cruz stopping in Iowa on Thursday to support Chuck Grassley's Senate re-election bid". Fox News. Retrieved November 2, 2022.
  58. ^ Sandbulte, Eric (October 15, 2022). "Sen. Scott makes GOP stop in Sioux Center". nwestiowa. Retrieved November 2, 2022.
  59. ^ @TulsiGabbard (November 6, 2022). "I'm endorsing @ChuckGrassley because unlike his opponent, Chuck will stand up for freedom, the Constitution & the American people against the radical "woke" agenda of the Biden Admin. Chuck Grassley is committed to putting the well-being of Iowans & America first. Vote on Nov 8!" (Tweet). Retrieved November 6, 2022 – via Twitter.
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  65. ^ Martz, Luke (January 25, 2022). "Pro-Life Family Leader Endorses Grassley's Re-Election". Iowa Field Report. Retrieved November 2, 2022.
  66. ^ Editorial Board, Telegraph Herald (October 14, 2022). "Our opinion: Despite flaws, Grassley continues to deliver for Iowa". Telegraph Herald. Retrieved November 2, 2022.
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  76. ^ Release, Press (May 3, 2022). "National Right to Life Endorses Chuck Grassley in Iowa Senate Race". National Right to Life.
  77. ^ "Endorsed Candidates". proisraelamerica.org. Archived from the original on December 20, 2021. Retrieved January 21, 2022.
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  80. ^ Release, Press (October 14, 2022). "U.S. Chamber Endorses Chuck Grassley for U.S. Senate". U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Retrieved November 2, 2022.
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  88. ^ "Campaign Almanac: Pence to join Feenstra at 4th District convention". The Gazette. April 22, 2022. Retrieved May 17, 2022.
  89. ^ "OUR RECOMMENDED CANDIDATES". Retrieved October 29, 2022.
  90. ^ Willems, Arlie (May 19, 2022). "Franken will be an effective leader for Iowa". The Gazette (Cedar Rapids, Iowa). Retrieved June 6, 2022.
  91. ^ "Press-Citizen editorial board endorses Franken, Bohannan".
  92. ^ "Voice of Alexandria". Archived from the original on November 6, 2022. Retrieved November 6, 2022.
  93. ^ board, Journal editorial (November 5, 2022). "Journal Editorial Board endorses Franken, Reynolds, Feenstra for U.S. Senate, Iowa 4th district, Iowa governor". Sioux City Journal. Retrieved November 6, 2022.
  94. ^ "Editorial: Franken for Senate - Storm Lake Times Pilot". November 2, 2022.
  95. ^ "Campaign Almanac: STEM group backs Franken in Senate race". The Gazette. June 1, 2022. Retrieved June 6, 2022.
  96. ^ a b "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Admiral Mike Franken for U.S. Senate". End Citizens United. June 15, 2022.
  97. ^ "LCV Action Fund Endorses Admiral Franken for Senate". www.lcv.org. August 10, 2022.
  98. ^ "Congressional Endorsements". Sierra Club Independent Action.
  99. ^ "VoteVets Announces Final Endorsements of the Quarter". VoteVets.org. March 30, 2022. Retrieved April 10, 2022.
  100. ^ FiveThirtyEight
  101. ^ 270towin
  102. ^ Selzer & Co.
  103. ^ Cygnal (R)
  104. ^ Civiqs
  105. ^ The Tarrance Group (R)
  106. ^ Change Research (D)
  107. ^ Selzer & Co.
  108. ^ Emerson College
  109. ^ Cygnal (R)
  110. ^ Change Research (D) Archived September 13, 2022, at the Wayback Machine
  111. ^ Cygnal (R)
  112. ^ Selzer & Co.
  113. ^ Change Research (D)
  114. ^ Change Research (D) Archived April 23, 2022, at the Wayback Machine
  115. ^ Moore Information Group (R)
  116. ^ Cygnal (R) Archived February 28, 2022, at the Wayback Machine
  117. ^ Data for Progress (D)
  118. ^ Cygnal (R)
  119. ^ Selzer & Co.
  120. ^ Results. docs.google.com (Report).
[edit]

Official campaign websites

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