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2024 United States presidential election in Iowa

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2024 United States presidential election in Iowa
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Turnout74.18% (Decrease1.59 pp)
 
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Electoral vote 6 0
Popular vote 927,734 706,556
Percentage 56.0% 42.7%
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

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The 2024 United States presidential election in Iowa was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Iowa voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Iowa has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]

An Upper Midwestern state previously considered a battleground and a bellwether state for decades, Iowa voted significantly more Republican than the nation-at-large in both 2016 and 2020 and is now considered a moderately red state at the federal and state levels. Republican Donald Trump won the state by a comfortable margin of 8.2% while losing nationally in 2020, despite polls indicating a close race. Biden became the first Democrat to be elected president without winning Iowa since Jimmy Carter in 1976.

Furthermore, during the 2022 midterms, all three statewide incumbent Republicans (Governor Kim Reynolds, Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig, and Secretary of State Paul Pate) won reelection by more than 18%, two of three statewide incumbent Democrats (28-year incumbent Attorney General Tom Miller and 40-year incumbent Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald) lost to Republican challengers, and the remaining incumbent Democrat (4-year incumbent Auditor Rob Sand) won by less than 3,000 votes and 0.23%. Republicans also won all four of Iowa's U.S. House seats.[2][3] As such, for most of the race Iowa was expected to be a safe red state in 2024.[4] A poll performed by Selzer and Co. and published by The Des Moines Register on November 2 claimed Harris to be up by 3%, leading some to predict a far closer race than initially expected.[5][6][7] Selzer retired from polling following the election, a decision she had made the year before.[8][9]

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden was running for reelection to a second term, and became the party's presumptive nominee, but withdrew from the race on July 21.[10][11] He then endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[12]

Attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, as he announced in April.[13]

Donald Trump won the state by a margin of 13%, the widest margin for a candidate since 1972.[14][15]

Caucuses

[edit]

Democratic caucuses

[edit]
Main article: 2024 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses

During the Iowa Democratic caucuses, in-person caucusing focusing only on party business was held on January 15, but voting on candidates will be done exclusively via mail-in ballots from January 12 until Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. This was the result of a compromise between the Iowa Democratic Party and the Democratic National Committee (DNC). Iowa traditionally holds its race first during the presidential primary and caucuses season, but the DNC originally wanted South Carolina to instead hold its race first on February 3.[16]

Iowa Democratic caucus, January 12 – March 5, 2024[17]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 12,337 90.37% 40 40
Uncommitted 614 4.50% 0 0
Dean Phillips 394 2.89% 0 0
Marianne Williamson[a] 307 2.25% 0 0
Total: 13,652 100.00% 40 6 46

Republican caucuses

[edit]
Main article: 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses

The Iowa Republican caucuses were held on January 15, 2024, the first-in-the-nation nomination contest of the 2024 Republican primaries. Former president Donald Trump won the primary with the largest margin of victory for a non-incumbent in the Iowa caucuses. Trump's overwhelming victory in the state established his position early as the frontrunner.

Popular vote share by county
  Trump
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Haley
  •   30–40%
Iowa Republican precinct caucuses, January 15, 2024[18]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 56,243 51.00% 20 0 20
Ron DeSantis 23,491 21.30% 9 0 9
Nikki Haley 21,027 19.07% 8 0 8
Vivek Ramaswamy 8,430 7.64% 3 0 3
Ryan Binkley 768 0.70% 0 0 0
Asa Hutchinson 188 0.17% 0 0 0
Other 90 0.08% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 35 0.03% 0 0 0
Total: 110,272 100.00% 40 0 40

Libertarian caucuses

[edit]
Main article: 2024 Iowa Libertarian presidential caucuses

The Iowa Libertarian caucuses were held on January 15, 2024, its first as a recognized party in the state.[19] 2022 U.S. Senate candidate Chase Oliver from Georgia won the non-binding preferential vote with 42.7% of the vote.[20]

2024 Iowa Libertarian presidential caucuses[21]
Candidate Votes Percentage
Chase Oliver 38 42.70
Michael Rectenwald 15 16.85
Mike ter Maat 12 13.48
Joshua Smith 12 13.48
Vivek Ramaswamy 4 4.49
Mario Perales 2 2.25
Robert Sansone 2 2.25
Jacob Hornberger 1 1.12
Lars Mapstead 1 1.12
Art Olivier 1 1.12
None of the above 1 1.12
Total 89 100.00

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[22] Likely R November 4, 2024
Inside Elections[23] Tilt R November 4, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[24] Likely R November 4, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[25] Likely R November 3, 2024
CNalysis[26] Tilt R November 4, 2024
CNN[27] Solid R November 3, 2024
The Economist[28] Safe R November 3, 2024
538[29] Likely R November 3, 2024
NBC News[30] Solid R November 3, 2024
Split Ticket[31] Lean R November 2, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
[b] 		Margin
270ToWin October 2 – November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 45.3% 50.0% 4.7% Trump +4.7%
Silver Bulletin through November 3, 2024 November 4, 2024 45.4% 49.8% 4.8% Trump +4.4%
Average 45.4% 49.9% 4.7% Trump +4.5%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
InsiderAdvantage (R)[32] November 2–3, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 52% 46% 2%[d]
SoCal Strategies (R)[33][A] November 2–3, 2024 501 (RV) ± 4.4% 50% 43% 7%
435 (LV) 52% 44% 4%
Emerson College[34][B] November 1–2, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 53% 43% 4%[e]
54%[f] 45% 1%[e]
Cygnal (R)[35][C] September 27–28, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 45% 4%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
Selzer & Co.[36][D] October 28–31, 2024 808 (LV) ± 3.4% 44% 47% 3% 0% 6%[g]
Selzer & Co.[37][D] September 8–11, 2024 656 (LV) ± 3.8% 47% 43% 6% 1% 3%[e]
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Cygnal (R)[38][C] July 8–9, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 39% 10%
John Zogby Strategies[39][E] April 13–21, 2024 405 (LV) – 47% 45% 8%
Selzer & Co.[40][D] February 25–28, 2024 640 (LV) ± 3.9% 48% 33% 19%[h]
Cygnal (R)[41][C] February 13–14, 2024 600 (LV) ± 3.9% 49% 40% 11%
John Zogby Strategies[42] January 2–4, 2024 500 (LV) – 51% 39% 10%
Emerson College[43] December 15–17, 2023 1,094 (RV) ± 2.9% 48% 40% 12%
Emerson College[44] October 1–4, 2023 464 (RV) ± 4.5% 44% 34% 22%
Cygnal (R)[45][C] September 28–29, 2023 506 (LV) ± 4.3% 47% 38% 15%
Emerson College[46] September 7–9, 2023 896 (RV) ± 3.2% 50% 39% 11%
HarrisX[47][F] August 17–21, 2023 1,952 (LV) – 47% 41% 12%
Big Data Poll (R)[48] July 9–12, 2023 1,057 (LV) ± 3.0% 42% 36% 22%
Emerson College[49] May 19–22, 2023 1,064 (RV) ± 2.9% 49% 38% 13%
Cygnal (R)[50][C] April 3–4, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 40% 14%
Emerson College[51] October 2–4, 2022 959 (LV) ± 3.1% 47% 39% 14%
Cygnal (R)[52][C] October 2–4, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 41% 8%
Cygnal (R)[53][C] July 13–14, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 40% 9%
Cygnal (R)[54][C] February 20–22, 2022 610 (LV) ± 3.9% 53% 38% 9%
Selzer & Co.[55][D] November 7–10, 2021 658 (LV) ± 3.8% 51% 40% 9%
Cygnal (R)[56][C] October 18–19, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 54% 41% 5%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
Selzer & Co.[57][D] June 9–14, 2024 632 (LV) ± 3.9% 50% 32% 9% 2% 7%[i]

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Cornel West

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Cornel
West
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College[46] September 7–9, 2023 896 (RV) ± 3.2% 48% 35% 5% 12%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Gavin Newsom

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Gavin
Newsom
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Cygnal (R)[45][C] September 28–29, 2023 506 (LV) ± 4.3% 48% 34% 18%

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[39][E] April 13–21, 2024 405 (LV) – 39% 45% 16%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[39][E] April 13–21, 2024 405 (LV) – 50% 39% 11%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Big Data Poll (R)[48] July 9–12, 2023 1,057 (LV) ± 3.0% 38% 36% 26%
Emerson College[49] May 19–22, 2023 1,064 (RV) ± 2.9% 45% 38% 17%
Cygnal (R)[50][C] April 3–4, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 38% 14%

Generic Republican vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Generic
Republican
 Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Cygnal (R)[45][C] September 28–29, 2023 506 (LV) ± 4.3% 49% 33% 18%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in Iowa[58]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican
Democratic
Libertarian
Socialism and Liberation
Socialist
  • Bill Stodden
  • Stephanie Cholensky
Independent
We the People
Write-in
Total votes

By congressional district

[edit]

Trump won all 4 congressional districts.[59]

District Trump Harris Representative
1st 53% 45% Mariannette Miller-Meeks
2nd 54% 44% Ashley Hinson
3rd 51% 47% Zach Nunn
4th 65% 33% Randy Feenstra

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ While voting was ongoing, Williamson suspended and then unsuspended her campaign.
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ "Other" with 1%
  5. ^ a b c "Someone else" with 1%
  6. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  7. ^ "Not sure" with 3%; "Don't want to say" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%; "Would not vote" with 0%
  8. ^ "Someone else" with 15%
  9. ^ "Someone else" with 3%, "would not vote" with 1%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ Poll sponsored by On Point Politics & Red Eagle Politics
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by RealClearDefense
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Poll sponsored by the Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation
  4. ^ a b c d e Poll sponsored by the Des Moines Register & Mediacom Iowa
  5. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  6. ^ Poll conducted for American Free Enterprise Chamber of Commerce

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ^ "Iowa Election Results and Maps 2022 | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
  3. ^ Murray, Isabella. "The congressional race that could indicate just how red Iowa has shifted". ABC News. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
  4. ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
  5. ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne. "Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
  6. ^ "Harris grabs unexpected last-minute lead over Trump in Iowa poll | US elections 2024 | The Guardian". amp.theguardian.com. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
  7. ^ "What to Make of the Shock Poll Showing Harris Ahead in Iowa?". Townhall.com. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
  8. ^ Reilly, Liam. "Top pollster Ann Selzer to retire after bombshell Iowa poll ended in huge miss"". CNN. Retrieved November 17, 2024.
  9. ^ "I investigated Ann Selzers poll showing Trump losing". MSN.com. Retrieved November 20, 2024.
  10. ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
  11. ^ Levine, Sam; Gambino, Lauren (July 22, 2024). "Joe Biden withdraws from presidential race after weeks of pressure to quit". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
  12. ^ "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
  13. ^ McCullough, Caleb (April 13, 2024). "Robert F. Kennedy Jr. makes pitch for president in Iowa". The Gazette. Retrieved April 15, 2024.
  14. ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne. "Pollster J. Ann Selzer: 'I'll be reviewing data' after Iowa Poll misses big Trump win". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved November 6, 2024.
  15. ^ "Trump's Iowa Win Is a Harsh Reminder to Never Trust Election Polls". The New Republic. ISSN 0028-6583. Retrieved November 6, 2024.
  16. ^ "DNC's new calendar, will release caucus results on Super Tuesday". Iowa Public Radio. October 6, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  17. ^ "Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus Results". Des Moines Register. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
  18. ^ "Iowa Republican Presidential Nominating Process". The Green Papers.
  19. ^ "Libertarian Party of Iowa announces it will hold caucuses Jan. 15".
  20. ^ Bunge, Mike (January 16, 2024). "Libertarian Party of Iowa announces the winner of its statewide Presidential caucus". KIMT 3. Retrieved January 17, 2024.
  21. ^ Bunge, Mike (January 16, 2024). "Libertarian Party of Iowa announces the winner of its statewide Presidential caucus". KIMT. Allen Media Broadcasting. Archived from the original on January 16, 2024. Retrieved January 16, 2024.
  22. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  23. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  24. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  25. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. September 18, 2024. Retrieved September 20, 2024.
  26. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  27. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  28. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved July 15, 2024.
  29. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
  30. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  31. ^ "2024 Presidential Forcast". Split Ticket. June 2, 2023.
  32. ^ "InsiderAdvantage Iowa Survey". InsiderAdvantage. November 4, 2024.
  33. ^ "SoCal Strategies Iowa Poll". Substack. November 3, 2024.
  34. ^ "November 2024 Iowa Poll: Trump 53%, Harris 43%". Emerson College Polling. November 2, 2024.
  35. ^ "Survey of Likely General Election Voters" (PDF). Cygnal. October 1, 2024. Retrieved October 2, 2024.
  36. ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (November 2, 2024). "Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how". The Des Moines Register.
  37. ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (September 15, 2024). "Trump's Iowa lead shrinks significantly as Kamala Harris replaces Biden, Iowa Poll shows". The Des Moines Register.
  38. ^ "Iowans Seek Protection From Property Taxes and Income Taxes; Grapple with Inflation". Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation. July 15, 2024.
  39. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  40. ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (March 5, 2024). "Iowa Poll: Trump dominates Biden in lead-up to likely 2024 presidential election rematch". The Des Moines Register.
  41. ^ "Poll: Iowans Want Constitutional Protection From Tax Increases". Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation. February 16, 2024.
  42. ^ Zogby, Jeremy (January 5, 2024). "The Zogby Report - 01.05.24 – The State of Nikki Haley and Iowa". John Zogby Strategies.
  43. ^ Mumford, Camille (December 20, 2023). "Iowa 2024 Poll: Trump Maintains Support, Haley Catches DeSantis For Second Place". Emerson Polling.
  44. ^ "Iowa 2024 Poll: Plurality of Independent Voters Disapprove of Gov. Reynolds". Emerson Polling. October 13, 2023.
  45. ^ a b c "ITRF Poll: Iowans Pessimistic About the Direction of the Country". Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation. October 4, 2023.
  46. ^ a b "Iowa 2024: Biden and Trump Remain Frontrunners In Caucuses, But Both Losing Ground". Emerson Polling. September 12, 2023.
  47. ^ "American Free Enterprise Chamber of Commerce Releases Its First 2024 Presidential Race National and Iowa Surveys of Voters, Conducted by HarrisX". PR Newswire. August 21, 2023.
  48. ^ a b "Iowa Poll: Trump Takes Majority of GOP Caucus-Goers, Window Closing". Big Data Poll. July 13, 2023.
  49. ^ a b Mumford, Camille (May 25, 2023). "Iowa 2024: Biden and Trump Start with Significant Leads in Party Caucuses". Emerson Polling.
  50. ^ a b "ITRF Poll: Economy and Taxes are Top of Mind for Iowa Voters". Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation. April 10, 2023.
  51. ^ Mumford, Camille (October 7, 2022). "Iowa 2022: Republican Candidates Grassley and Reynolds Hold Double-Digit Leads in US Senate and Gubernatorial Elections". Emerson Polling.
  52. ^ "Strong Support for Republicans; Voters Focused on Inflation". Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation. October 6, 2022.
  53. ^ "Survey of Likely General Election Voters Iowa Statewide" (PDF). Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation. July 22, 2022.
  54. ^ "Survey of Likely General Election Voters Iowa Statewide" (PDF). Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation. Archived from the original (PDF) on February 28, 2022. Retrieved March 1, 2022.
  55. ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne; Gruber-Miller, Stephen (December 1, 2021). "Iowa Poll: In a potential 2024 match, Donald Trump leads Joe Biden by double digits". The Des Moines Register.
  56. ^ "Survey of Likely 2022 General Election Voters Iowa Statewide" (PDF). Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation. October 25, 2021.
  57. ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (June 17, 2024). "Trump maintains big lead over Biden and RFK Jr. despite felony conviction, Iowa Poll shows". The Des Moines Register.
  58. ^ "Candidate List" (PDF). Iowa SOS. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
  59. ^ "Election Night Reporting".
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