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2024 California's 47th congressional district election

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2024 California's 47th congressional district election

← 2022 November 5, 2024 2026 →
Reporting
93%
as of Nov. 16, 5:30 PM PST
 
Candidate Dave Min Scott Baugh
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 175,216 165,959
Percentage 51.4% 48.6%

U.S. Representative before election

Katie Porter
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Dave Min
Democratic

The 2024 California's 47th congressional district election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the United States representative for California's 47th congressional district, concurrently with elections for the other U.S. House districts in California and the rest of the country, as well as the 2024 U.S. Senate race in California, other elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary election was held on March 5, 2024, concurrently with the Super Tuesday presidential primaries. The Southern California-based 47th district is centered in Orange County and includes the cities of Costa Mesa, Huntington Beach, Irvine, Newport Beach, and Seal Beach, as well as portions of Laguna Beach, Laguna Hills, and Laguna Woods.

The incumbent is Democrat Katie Porter, who was re-elected with 51.7% of the vote in 2022. She is not seeking re-election, instead choosing to run for the U.S. Senate.[1] Porter was first elected in 2018, unseating incumbent Republican Mimi Walters. She later gained national fame for her progressive politics and frequently went viral for grilling corporate executives during congressional hearings.[2] During the primary elections, AIPAC spent an unprecedented $4.6 million against Min.[3][4]

The general election pit former state assemblyman Scott Baugh, a Republican, against state senator Dave Min, a Democrat. Candidates eliminated in the primary election included Democratic attorney Joanna Weiss and Republican businessman Max Ukropina.

The race was expected to be highly competitive as it is a slightly blue suburban district with no incumbent. Both House Democrats and House Republicans listed California's 47th district among their highest-priority districts in the 2024 election.[5][6] Democrat Joe Biden won the district with 54.5% of the vote in the 2020 presidential election.[7]

On the night of November 12, 2024, after a week of counting and an estimate of 86% of the vote reporting, Baugh conceded the race to Min, who was leading with 50.9% of the vote at the time.[8]

Primary election

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Candidates

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Advanced to general

[edit]
  • Scott Baugh (Republican), former minority leader of the California state assembly, former chair of the Orange County Republican Party, and runner-up for this district in 2022[9]
  • Dave Min (Democratic), state senator and candidate for this district[a] in 2018[10]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • Terry Crandall (no party preference), Santa Ana College economics professor[11]
  • Tom McGrath (no party preference), chemical engineer[11]
  • Long Pham (Republican), former member of the Orange County Department of Education Board of Directors and perennial candidate[11]
  • Boyd Roberts (Democratic), realtor and perennial candidate[11]
  • Bill Smith (no party preference), retired attorney[11]
  • Max Ukropina (Republican), businessman and former aide to U.S. Representatives John Campbell and David Valadao[12]
  • Joanna Weiss (Democratic), attorney and law professor[13]
  • Shariq Zaidi (Democratic), security guard[11]

Withdrawn

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Declined

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Endorsements

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Scott Baugh (R)
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Political parties
Organizations
Long Pham (R)
Organizations
Dave Min (D)
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
  • 24 state senators[38]
  • 33 state assemblymembers[38]
Individuals
Newspapers and other media
Political parties
Organizations
Labor unions
Max Ukropina (R)
Political parties
Dom Jones (D) (withdrawn)
Individuals

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Scott
Baugh (R)
Dave
Min (D)
Max
Ukropina (R)
Joanna
Weiss (D)
Other Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R)[A] February 12–14, 2024 366 (LV) ± 5.1% 27% 22% 9% 16% 9% 17%
RMG Research[B] November 14–19, 2023 300 (LV) ± 5.7% 17% 12% 4% 7% 4%[c] 56%

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of February 14, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Dave Min (D) $1,731,136 $1,507,057 $224,079
Boyd Roberts (D) $6,762 $8,369 $0
Joanna Weiss (D) $2,151,268[d] $1,538,667 $612,601
Scott Baugh (R) $2,010,374 $313,132 $1,707,928
Max Ukropina (R) $595,201 $436,787 $158,414
Terry Crandall (NPP) $13,985 $12,461 $1,523
Tom McGrath (NPP) $14,033 $8,895 $5,138
Bill Smith (NPP) $15,000[e] $7,770 $7,230
Source: Federal Election Commission[76]

Results

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2024 California's 47th congressional district primary[77][78]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Scott Baugh 49,799 32.8
Democratic Dave Min 39,080 25.7
Democratic Joanna Weiss 28,948 19.0
Republican Max Ukropina 22,729 15.0
Republican Long Pham 4,195 2.8
No party preference Terry Crandall 2,400 1.6
Democratic Boyd Roberts 2,012 1.3
No party preference Tom McGrath 1,321 0.9
No party preference Bill Smith 902 0.6
Democratic Shariq Zaidi 672 0.4
Total votes 152,058 100.0

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[79] Lean D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[80] Tossup March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[81] Lean D September 19, 2024
Elections Daily[82] Lean R (flip) November 4, 2024
CNalysis[83] Lean D November 4, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

[edit]

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Dave
Min (D)
Scott
Baugh (R)
Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R)[A] October 17–18, 2024 401 (LV) ± 4.9% 40% 43% 17%
WPA Intelligence (R)[A] September 24–26, 2024 45% 42% 13%
USC/CSU September 14–21, 2024 525 (LV) ± 4.3% 46% 49% 5%[f]
Public Policy Polling (D)[C] October 24–30, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 42% 43% 15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[D] June 14–15, 2023 555 (LV) ± 4.2% 37% 39% 24%
Hypothetical polling
Scott Baugh vs. Joanna Weiss
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Joanna
Weiss (D)
Scott
Baugh (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[C] October 24–30, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 43% 42% 15%

Results

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2024 California's 47th congressional district election[98]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Dave Min 175,216 51.36%
Republican Scott Baugh 165,337 48.64%
Total votes 341,175 100.0%
Democratic hold

Notes

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  1. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Baugh's campaign
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by U.S. Term Limits
  3. ^ a b Poll conducted for Weiss's campaign
  4. ^ Poll conducted for Min's campaign
  1. ^ This district was numbered as the 45th district prior to the 2020 redistricting cycle.
  2. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ "Someone else" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 0%
  4. ^ $225,000 of this total was self-funded by Weiss
  5. ^ $15,000 of this total was self-funded by Weiss
  6. ^ "Won't vote" with 1%

References

[edit]
  1. ^ a b Schallhorn, Kaitlyn (January 10, 2023). "Rep. Katie Porter launches a U.S. Senate bid". The Orange County Register. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  2. ^ Kang, Hanna (January 10, 2023). "Rep. Katie Porter's most viral moments in Congress". The Orange County Register.
  3. ^ Weigel, David (March 1, 2024). "A California House race is AIPAC's first big target. Nobody is quite sure why". Semafor. Retrieved November 9, 2024.
  4. ^ Anguiano, Dani (March 11, 2024). "Pro-Israel group spent millions in tight race for southern California House seat – and lost". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved November 9, 2024.
  5. ^ Ackley, Kate (March 10, 2023). "DCCC picks 29 'Frontline' members for extra help next year". Roll Call. Retrieved March 20, 2023.
  6. ^ Gibson, Brittany (March 13, 2023). "Republicans release top targets of Democratic-held House seats in 2024". Politico. Retrieved March 20, 2023.
  7. ^ "Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results by congressional district, for new and old districts". Daily Kos. September 29, 2021. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
  8. ^ Hiramoto, KJ (November 12, 2024). "CA District 47 Race: Dave Min declares victory as Scott Baugh concedes". KCOP-TV. Retrieved November 12, 2024.
  9. ^ Schallhorn, Kaitlyn (January 10, 2023). "Scott Baugh launches congressional bid for Rep. Katie Porter's seat". The Orange County Register. Retrieved January 20, 2023.
  10. ^ a b c Gans, Jared (January 18, 2023). "Dave Min announces bid for Porter's California House seat, nabs her endorsement". The Hill. Retrieved January 18, 2023.
  11. ^ a b c d e f "Certified List of Candidates". California Secretary of State. December 28, 2023. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
  12. ^ Nguyen, Lilly (April 10, 2023). "Newport Beach businessman announces bid for seat in CA-47". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved April 11, 2023.
  13. ^ Nguyen, Lilly (February 8, 2023). "Community activist announces congressional bid in Orange County's already contested CA-47". Los Angeles Times.
  14. ^ Frisk, Garrett (May 11, 2023). "California House Candidate Roundup: May 11, 2023". Diamond Eye Candidate Report. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
  15. ^ Szabo, Matt (October 17, 2023). "Huntington Beach's Dom Jones pivots into State Assembly District 72 race". Daily Pilot.
  16. ^ "Former Rep. Harley Rouda Withdraws Bid For Election Following Fall". Patch Media Newport Beach-Corona Del Mar, CA. City News Service. April 11, 2023.
  17. ^ a b White, Jeremy; Korte, Lara; Castanos, Ramon; Brown, Matthew (May 15, 2023). "Your California budget watchlist". Politico. Retrieved May 15, 2023.
  18. ^ "The race for Rep. Katie Porter's open congressional seat is growing". Orange County Register. May 26, 2023. Retrieved March 19, 2024.
  19. ^ "Why is an elected official in California running for Nevada's Senate seat?". The Nevada Independent. March 19, 2024. Retrieved March 19, 2024.
  20. ^ "Former Rep. Harley Rouda announces another Congressional bid". Los Angeles Times. January 11, 2023.
  21. ^ a b c d e Schallhorn, Kaitlyn (May 24, 2023). "Supervisor Katrina Foley gets involved in congressional race, but not as a candidate". The Orange County Register. Retrieved May 24, 2023.
  22. ^ Hooper, Kelly (January 10, 2023). "Katie Porter launches Senate campaign for Feinstein's seat". Politico.
  23. ^ "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 5/16". Daily Kos. May 16, 2023. Retrieved May 18, 2023.
  24. ^ Lesniewski, Niels; Altimari, Daniela; McIntire, Mary Ellen (May 11, 2023). "At the Races: Admakers (heart) NY". Roll Call. Retrieved May 11, 2023.
  25. ^ Villalovas, Eden (July 16, 2023). "California state 2024 race shapes up as candidates vie to replace Katie Porter". Washington Examiner. Retrieved January 5, 2024.
  26. ^ a b "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 5/8". Daily Kos. May 8, 2023. Retrieved May 18, 2023.
  27. ^ a b "Scott Baugh announces Orange County legislative endorsements in campaign for Congress". OC Breeze. Archived from the original on January 30, 2023. Retrieved January 18, 2024.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  28. ^ a b "OC Supervisor and Chairman Don Wagner, along with City Council Members in Irvine, Seal Beach, Costa Mesa and Laguna Niguel, endorse Scott Baugh for Congress". OC Breeze. Archived from the original on February 10, 2023. Retrieved January 18, 2024.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  29. ^ "Reform California Releases Its First Round of Voter Guide Endorsements for the 2024 Election". reformcalifornia.org. Archived from the original on August 29, 2023. Retrieved August 29, 2023.
  30. ^ "CA Statewide Guide". www.cacollegegop.org. Retrieved February 10, 2024.
  31. ^ "2024 Voter Guides". californiaprolife.org. Retrieved February 20, 2024.
  32. ^ a b "CRPA PAC Endorsed Federal Candidates". CRPA. Retrieved February 14, 2024.
  33. ^ "Endorsements by the HJTA PAC". Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association. Retrieved January 29, 2024.
  34. ^ "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 4/4". Daily Kos. April 4, 2023. Retrieved May 18, 2023.
  35. ^ a b NRA-PVF. "NRA-PVF | Grades | California". NRA-PVF. Retrieved March 1, 2024.
  36. ^ a b c d "California Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis endorses Dave Min for Congress". OC Breeze. March 28, 2023. Archived from the original on March 30, 2023. Retrieved March 30, 2023.
  37. ^ a b c d e Chmielewski, Dan (August 22, 2023). "Healthcare Workers Endorse State Senator Dave Min". The Liberal OC. Retrieved January 18, 2024.
  38. ^ a b c d Bajko, Matthew S. (September 27, 2023). "Political Notebook: Amid Orange County LGBTQ backlash, House candidate Min remains an advocate". Bay Area Reporter. Retrieved September 28, 2023.
  39. ^ "Attorney General Rob Bonta endorses Dave Min for Congress". Orange County Breeze. January 25, 2023. Archived from the original on January 27, 2023. Retrieved May 18, 2023.
  40. ^ a b Gardiner, Dustin; Korte, Lara (October 5, 2023). "Who is, and isn't, speaking at Feinstein's funeral: Lt. Gov Shares the Love". Politico. Retrieved October 6, 2023.
  41. ^ "California State Treasurer Fiona Ma endorses Dave Min for Congress". Orange County Breeze. February 2, 2023. Archived from the original on March 4, 2023. Retrieved March 4, 2023.
  42. ^ a b c "SEIU endorses Dave Min for Congress". Orange County Breeze. March 16, 2023. Archived from the original on March 17, 2023. Retrieved March 16, 2023.
  43. ^ "Endorsement: Dave Min should replace Katie Porter in the 47th Congressional District". Los Angeles Times. January 15, 2024. Retrieved January 18, 2024.
  44. ^ "Primary Endorsements" (PDF). California Democratic Party. November 19, 2023. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
  45. ^ "Endorsed Candidates 2024 Primary". Democratic Party of Orange County. Retrieved March 7, 2024.
  46. ^ AAPI Victory Fund [@aapivictoryfund] (May 12, 2023). "We are proud to endorse @davemin_ca for California's 47th Congressional District. Dave is running for Congress to defend the American Dream and fight for the hard-working constituents of CA-47. We stand with Dave to protect progressive values in Congress". Instagram. AAPI Victory Fund. Retrieved May 18, 2023.
  47. ^ "Asian American Action Fund Endorses California State Senator Dave Min for California's 47th Congressional District". Asian American Action Fund. February 23, 2023. Retrieved May 18, 2023.
  48. ^ Kang, Hanna (February 8, 2023). "AAPI groups focus on the CA-47 race, viewing it as a potential pickup in 2024". The Orange County Register. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
  49. ^ a b Chmielewski, Dan (January 18, 2024). "California Environmental Voters Endoerses Dave Min". The Liberal OC. Retrieved January 18, 2024.
  50. ^ Chmielewski, Dan (September 8, 2023). "Min and Porter Big Winners of DGI Poll". The Liberal OC. Retrieved September 16, 2023.
  51. ^ a b "2024 ENDORSEMENT". Emgage PAC. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
  52. ^ a b "LCV Action Fund Announces Additional U.S. House Endorsements for 2024 Election". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved March 1, 2024.
  53. ^ "2024 Endorsements | Sierra Club Independent Action". www.sierraclubindependentaction.org. Retrieved February 22, 2024.
  54. ^ "2024 Candidates for Common Good". Vote Common Good. Retrieved January 24, 2024.
  55. ^ Chmielewski, Dan (December 18, 2023). "AFSCME Endorses Dave Min; America's Largest Public Employees Union Latest to Join Min's Massive Coalition". The Liberal OC. Retrieved December 20, 2023.
  56. ^ Chmielewski, Dan (November 13, 2023). "Deputy Sheriffs Endorse Dave Min In CA-47;Largest Association of Deputy Sheriffs & District Attorney Investigators in the Country Back Dave Min". The Liberal OC. Retrieved November 15, 2023.
  57. ^ Chmielewski, Dan (December 8, 2023). "California Labor Federation Backs Dave Min". The Liberal OC. Retrieved December 14, 2023.
  58. ^ a b c Chmielewski, Dan (August 24, 2023). "Public Employees Endorse Dave Min For Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved September 16, 2023.
  59. ^ Chmielewski, Dan (July 6, 2023). "Teamsters Endorse Dave Min for Congress". The Liberal OC.
  60. ^ Chmielewski, Dan (May 15, 2023). "And Endorsements are Coming In". The Liberal OC. Retrieved May 16, 2023.
  61. ^ "Our Recommended Candidates". Education Votes. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
  62. ^ "OC Labor Federation | COPE ENDORSEMENT". Retrieved February 14, 2024.
  63. ^ "AIPCA Endorsed Candidates". The American Independent Party. Retrieved March 7, 2024.
  64. ^ a b c Gardiner, Dustin; Korte, Lara (September 14, 2023). "Last Bills Standing: First in Playbook". Politico. Retrieved September 16, 2023.
  65. ^ "Elect Democratic Women Announces First House Endorsements of the 2024 Cycle". Elect Democratic Women. June 30, 2023. Retrieved August 24, 2023.
  66. ^ Wolf, Stephen (February 7, 2024). "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 2/7". Daily Kos. Retrieved February 7, 2024. CA-47: Activist and former attorney Joanna Weiss unveiled an endorsement from Democratic Rep. Josh Harder on Wednesday
  67. ^ Schneider, Elena (February 8, 2024). "Pro-Israel group wades into several contested Democratic primaries". Politico. Retrieved February 8, 2024.
  68. ^ McIntire, Mary Ellen (June 13, 2023). "EMILY's List backs Weiss in open California seat". Roll Call. Retrieved June 13, 2023.
  69. ^ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
  70. ^ "Endorsed Candidates". National Women's Political Caucus. Retrieved February 22, 2024.
  71. ^ Cohen, Max. "New Dems get involved in key primaries". Punchbowl News. Retrieved February 20, 2024.
  72. ^ zackcohen@rational360.com (February 2, 2024). "Pro-Israel America Announces Two Candidate Endorsements". Pro Israel America. Retrieved February 3, 2024.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  73. ^ Klein, Howie (February 7, 2023). "Dom Jones Is Determined To Ensure Basic Human Rights For All". Blue America. Retrieved May 11, 2023.
  74. ^ a b c d Ackley, Kate; Altimari, Daniela; Lesniewski, Niels; McIntire, Mary Ellen (March 2, 2023). "At the Races: Back to the future". Roll Call. Retrieved March 2, 2023.
  75. ^ a b c "Three members of the House of Representatives back Harley Rouda for Congress in CA-47". Orange County Breeze. January 23, 2023. Archived from the original on February 4, 2023. Retrieved May 19, 2023.
  76. ^ "2024 Election United States House - California 47th". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved November 27, 2023.
  77. ^ "Certified List of Candidates" (PDF). California Secretary of State. December 28, 2023. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
  78. ^ "California 47th Congressional District Primary Election Results". The New York Times. March 5, 2024. Retrieved March 7, 2024.
  79. ^ Wasserman, David (January 10, 2023). "Porter Senate Run Starts Open CA-47 Race in Lean Democrat". The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  80. ^ Gonzales, Nathan L.; Rubashkin, Jacob; Covey, Erin; Wascher, Bradley; Rothenberg, Stuart. "First 2024 House Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved March 10, 2023.
  81. ^ Kondik, Kyle (September 19, 2024). "Five House Rating Changes as Overall Battle for Majority Remains Tight". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2024.
  82. ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 9, 2023. Retrieved August 9, 2023.
  83. ^ "2024 House Forecast". November 20, 2023. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
  84. ^ Chmielewski, Dan (April 12, 2024). "Adam Schiff Throws His Support Behind Dave Min, Citing the High Stakes of California's 47th Congressional District Race". The Liberal OC. Retrieved April 15, 2024.
  85. ^ Chmielewski, Dan (April 17, 2024). "Governor Gavin Newsom Endorses Dave Min for Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved April 19, 2024.
  86. ^ "Endorsement: Dave Min for the 47th Congressional District". Los Angeles Times. September 9, 2024. Retrieved September 27, 2024.
  87. ^ "Dangerous Dave Min touts endorsement from the Squad". NRCC. April 3, 2024. Retrieved April 3, 2024.
  88. ^ Solander, Andrew (March 28, 2024). "Scoop: House Democrats grow their GOP target list for 2024". Axios. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  89. ^ Democratic Majority for Israel [@DemMaj4Israel] (September 9, 2024). "Today, DMFI PAC announced its endorsement of fourteen pro-Israel candidates running for the Democratic nomination in key U.S. House and Senate general election races. These seats are critical to electing a Democratic majority in Congress this November" (Tweet). Retrieved September 9, 2024 – via Twitter.
  90. ^ "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Slate of No Corporate PAC Congressional Candidates". End Citizens United | We the People, Not "We the Wealthy". May 15, 2024. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
  91. ^ "Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund Announces New Round of Federal Endorsements". Everytown for Gun Safety. September 26, 2024. Retrieved September 27, 2024.
  92. ^ Dison, Denis (May 14, 2024). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 17 Environmental Champs for Congress". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
  93. ^ "Endorsements". Our Revolution. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
  94. ^ "Reproductive Freedom for All Endorses Slate of California Champions for Election to U.S. House". Reproductive Freedom for All. April 9, 2024. Retrieved April 11, 2024.
  95. ^ Editorial Board. "Endorsement: Scott Baugh for California's 47th Congressional District". OC Register. SCNG. Retrieved September 15, 2024.
  96. ^ Schilke, Rachel (April 3, 2024). "Johnson-linked PAC releases first slate of 'trailblazer' House endorsements - Washington Examiner". Retrieved April 3, 2024.
  97. ^ "California Small Businesses Endorse Scott Baugh for Congress". NFIB. May 8, 2024. Retrieved May 9, 2024.
  98. ^ "California 47th Congressional District Election Results". The New York Times. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 10, 2024.
[edit]
Official campaign websites