2024 United States presidential election in Nevada
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Elections in Nevada |
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Nevada portal |
The 2024 United States presidential election in Nevada took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states, plus the District of Columbia, participated. Nevada voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Nevada has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census, in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
A Mountain West state, as well as a crucial swing state for the election, Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to win the state since George W. Bush's narrow victory in 2004. It has not been won by double digits since the elder Bush in 1988. Nevada has voted for the winner of every presidential election since 1980 with the exception of 2016, when it backed Hillary Clinton; and has been decided by single digits in every presidential election since 1992 with the exception of Barack Obama's 12.4% win in 2008. Obama won by less than 7% in 2012, and Trump lost by less than 2.5% in both 2016 and 2020. Today a purple state, Democratic strength in Nevada is almost entirely focused on Las Vegas and Reno, along with many of their suburbs.
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden initially ran for reelection to a second term,[2] but withdrew from the election on July 21, 2024.[3] He then endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[4] Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, as he announced in March.[5]
Despite Trump, who was running under the Republican banner a third consecutive time, not carrying Nevada in either of his past two presidential campaigns, polling in the state showed Trump in a strong position to win the state against Biden, with Trump leading Biden in all major polls on Nevada's voting intention from October 2023 until Biden's withdrawal in July 2024. However, Kamala Harris, from neighboring California, had polled somewhat better since becoming the Democratic nominee. The state was rated as a tossup by nearly all major news organizations.[6]
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced on August 23, 2024, that he was suspending his campaign in swing states, including Nevada.[7]
Trump won Nevada, defeating Harris by over three percentage points and becoming the first Republican to win the state since George W. Bush in 2004. Nevada was the only state that did not back Donald Trump in either of his 2016 or 2020 campaigns that voted for him in 2024. This is the first time since statehood that Nevada voted for a Republican and Colorado voted Democratic.
Voting law changes
[edit]By 2022, every voter gets a mail-in ballot unless they opt-out and eligible voters are automatically registered after common transactions at the DMV.[8]
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]The Nevada Democratic primary was held on February 6, 2024.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
Joe Biden (incumbent) | 119,758 | 89.3% | 36 | 36 | |
None of These Candidates | 7,448 | 5.6% | |||
Marianne Williamson | 4,101 | 3.1% | |||
Gabriel Cornejo | 811 | 0.6% | |||
Jason Palmer | 530 | 0.4% | |||
Frankie Lozada | 315 | 0.2% | |||
Armando Perez-Serrato | 264 | 0.2% | |||
John Haywood | 241 | 0.2% | |||
Stephen Lyons | 147 | 0.1% | |||
Superpayaseria Crystalroc | 133 | 0.1% | |||
Donald Picard | 124 | 0.1% | |||
Brent Foutz | 93 | 0.1% | |||
Stephen Alan Leon | 89 | 0.1% | |||
Mark R. Prascak | 33 | <0.1% | |||
Total: | 134,087 | 100% | 36 | 13 | 49 |
Republican nominating contests
[edit]Although the Nevada state government established a primary system in 2021, the state Republican Party chose to boycott the primary, scheduled for February 6, in favor of a party-organized caucus, scheduled for February 8. Votes from the primary were not included in determining delegate allocation.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
---|---|---|
None of These Candidates[11] | 50,763 | 63.26% |
Nikki Haley | 24,583 | 30.63% |
Mike Pence (withdrawn) | 3,091 | 3.85% |
Tim Scott (withdrawn) | 1,081 | 1.35% |
John Anthony Castro | 270 | 0.34% |
Hirsh V. Singh (withdrawn) | 200 | 0.25% |
Donald Kjornes | 166 | 0.21% |
Heath V. Fulkerson | 95 | 0.12% |
Total: | 80,249 | 100.00% |
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
Donald Trump | 59,982 | 99.11% | 25 | 1[a] | 26 |
Ryan Binkley | 540 | 0.89% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total | 60,522 | 100.00% | 25 | 1 | 26 |
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[13] | Tossup | November 4, 2024 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] | Lean D | November 4, 2024 |
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[15] | Tossup | November 4, 2024 |
CNN[16] | Tossup | November 4, 2024 |
CNalysis[17] | Tilt D | November 4, 2024 |
The Economist[18] | Tossup | November 4, 2024 |
538[19] | Tossup | November 4, 2024 |
Inside Elections[20] | Tossup | November 3, 2024 |
NBC News[21] | Tossup | November 4, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided [b] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
270ToWin | October 22 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 47.6% | 48.2% | 4.2% | Trump +0.6% |
538 | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 47.4% | 47.7% | 4.8% | Trump +0.3% |
Silver Bulletin | through November 4, 2024 | November 5, 2024 | 47.9% | 48.5% | 3.6% | Trump +0.6% |
The Hill/DDHQ | through November 4, 2024 | November 5, 2024 | 47.5% | 49.2% | 3.3% | Trump +1.7% |
Average | 47.6% | 48.3% | 4.1% | Trump +0.7% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AtlasIntel[22] | November 3–4, 2024 | 707 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 50% | 3% |
47% | 50% | 3%[d] | ||||
Patriot Polling[23] | November 1–3, 2024 | 792 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 50% | 1% |
AtlasIntel[24] | November 1–2, 2024 | 782 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 52% | 2%[d] |
46% | 51% | 3% | ||||
Emerson College[25] | October 30 – November 2, 2024 | 840 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 48% | 48% | 4%[e] |
49%[f] | 49% | 1%[e] | ||||
New York Times/Siena College[26] | October 24 – November 2, 2024 | 1,010 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
1,010 (LV) | 49% | 46% | 5% | |||
AtlasIntel[27] | October 30–31, 2024 | 845 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 51% | 2% |
47% | 51% | 2%[g] | ||||
Emerson College[28][A] | October 29–31, 2024 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 47% | 5%[h] |
49%[f] | 48% | 3%[h] | ||||
Noble Predictive Insights[29] | October 28–31, 2024 | 593 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 48% | 3% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research[30] | October 28–31, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 44% | 50% | 6% |
YouGov[31][B] | October 25–31, 2024 | 790 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 50% | 49% | 1% |
773 (LV) | 50% | 49% | 1% | |||
Data for Progress (D)[32] | October 25–30, 2024 | 721 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 47% | 4% |
Rasmussen Reports (R)[33][C] | October 25–30, 2024 | 767 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 49% | 4%[g] |
AtlasIntel[34] | October 25–29, 2024 | 1,083 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
48% | 48% | 4%[g] | ||||
Trafalgar Group (R)[35] | October 25–28, 2024 | 1,082 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 48% | 4%[i] |
CES/YouGov[36] | October 1–25, 2024 | 940 (A) | – | 53% | 44% | 3% |
933 (LV) | 51% | 47% | 2% | |||
InsiderAdvantage (R)[37] | October 20–21, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 48% | 4%[g] |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[38] | October 16–20, 2024 | 449 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 49% | 48% | 3% |
420 (LV) | 49% | 48% | 3% | |||
AtlasIntel[39] | October 12–17, 2024 | 1,171 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[40][D] | October 8−15, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 49% | 4%[j] |
Morning Consult[41] | October 6−15, 2024 | 496 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
Washington Post/Schar School[42] | September 30 – October 15, 2024 | 652 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
652 (LV) | 48% | 48% | 4% | |||
Rasmussen Reports (R)[43][C] | October 9–14, 2024 | 748 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 49% | 4%[i] |
Trafalgar Group (R)[44] | October 10–13, 2024 | 1,088 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 45% | 9%[k] |
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)[45][E] | October 6–9, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 50% | 3% |
Emerson College[46] | October 5–8, 2024 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 47% | 5%[l] |
49%[f] | 48% | 3%[m] | ||||
Wall Street Journal[47] | September 28 – October 8, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 43% | 49% | 8% |
RMG Research[48][F] | September 30 – October 3, 2024 | 782 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 47% | 4%[n] |
49%[f] | 49% | 2%[o] | ||||
OnMessage Inc. (R)[49][G] | September 24 – October 2, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
InsiderAdvantage (R)[50] | September 29–30, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 1%[g] |
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[51][H] | September 23–29, 2024 | 407 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
TIPP Insights[52][I] | September 23−25, 2024 | 1,044 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
736 (LV) | 49% | 48% | 3% | |||
Quantus Insights (R)[53][J] | September 23−25, 2024 | 628 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 49% | 3%[p] |
AtlasIntel[54] | September 20–25, 2024 | 858 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 48% | 1% |
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[55] | September 19–25, 2024 | 409 (LV) | – | 48% | 47% | 5% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[56] | September 19–25, 2024 | 574 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
516 (LV) | 52% | 45% | 3% | |||
Rasmussen Reports (R)[57][C] | September 19−22, 2024 | 738 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
Remington Research Group (R)[58][K] | September 16–20, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
The Tarrance Group (R)[59][L] | September 16–19, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 47% | 44% | 9%[q] |
Emerson College[60] | September 15–18, 2024 | 895 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 48% | 4%[r] |
49%[f] | 49% | 2%[r] | ||||
Morning Consult[41] | September 9−18, 2024 | 474 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 51% | 47% | 2% |
Noble Predictive Insights[61] | September 9−16, 2024 | 812 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 45% | 7% |
692 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 47% | 5% | ||
Trafalgar Group (R)[62] | September 11–13, 2024 | 1,079 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 44% | 11%[s] |
Morning Consult[41] | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 516 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
Patriot Polling[63] | September 1–3, 2024 | 788 (RV) | – | 47% | 47% | 6% |
InsiderAdvantage (R)[64] | August 29–31, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 48% | 5%[t] |
Emerson College[65] | August 25–28, 2024 | 1,168 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 49% | 48% | 3%[u] |
49%[f] | 49% | 1%[v] | ||||
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[66] | August 23–26, 2024 | 416 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 50% | 46% | 4% |
450 (RV) | 49% | 45% | 6% | |||
Fox News[67] | August 23–26, 2024 | 1,026 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 48% | 2%[g] |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||
Democratic National Convention | ||||||
Rasmussen Reports (R)[68][M] | August 13–18, 2024 | 980 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
Focaldata[69] | August 6–16, 2024 | 678 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 54% | 46% | – |
New York Times/Siena College[70] | August 12–15, 2024 | 677 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
677 (LV) | 47% | 48% | 5% | |||
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[71] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 403 (LV) | – | 45% | 48% | 7% |
Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. | ||||||
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[72][N] | July 23–29, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[73] | July 24–28, 2024 | 454 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 47% | 45% | 7% |
Joe Biden announces his withdrawal; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||
Republican National Convention concludes | ||||||
InsiderAdvantage (R)[74] | July 15–16, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 50% | 10% |
Republican National Convention begins | ||||||
attempted assassination of Donald Trump | ||||||
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[75] | May 7–13, 2024 | 459 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
Emerson College[76] | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 48% | 13% |
New York Times/Siena College[77] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 611 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
611 (LV) | 42% | 50% | 8% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Jill Stein[w] Green |
Cornel West[w] Independent |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other/ Undecided [b] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Race to the WH | through November 2, 2024 | November 3, 2024 | 47.9% | 47.3% | — | — | 1.2% | 3.6% | Harris +0.6% |
270toWin | October 22 – November 3, 2024 | November 3, 2024 | 47.8% | 47.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 3.8% | Harris +0.4% |
Average | 47.9% | 47.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 3.7% | Harris +0.5% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West[w] Independent |
Jill Stein[w] Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Times/Siena College[26] | October 24 – November 2, 2024 | 1,010 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 44% | – | – | 3% | 6% |
1,010 (LV) | 48% | 46% | – | – | 2% | 4% | |||
Focaldata[78] | October 3 – November 1, 2024 | 1,324 (LV) | – | 48% | 47% | – | 0% | 1% | 4% |
1,197 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 49% | 45% | – | 0% | 2% | 4% | ||
1,324 (A) | – | 48% | 44% | – | 0% | 2% | 1% | ||
Noble Predictive Insights[29] | October 28–31, 2024 | 593 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 48% | – | – | 0% | 3%[x] |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[79] | October 28–31, 2024 | 690 (LV) | – | 47% | 48% | – | 0% | 1% | 4% |
YouGov[31][B] | October 25–31, 2024 | 790 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 48% | 47% | 0% | 0% | – | 5% |
773 (LV) | 48% | 47% | 0% | 0% | – | 5% | |||
Data for Progress (D)[32] | October 25–30, 2024 | 721 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 47% | – | – | 1% | 3%[x] |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[80] | October 25–27, 2024 | 531 (LV) | – | 47% | 47% | – | – | 1% | 6% |
CNN/SSRS[81] | October 21–26, 2024 | 683 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 47% | 48% | – | – | 1% | 4% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[82] | October 20–22, 2024 | 540 (LV) | – | 46% | 47% | – | 0% | 0% | 7% |
OnMessage Inc. (R)[83][O] | October 19–22, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 50% | – | – | 0% | 3% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[38] | October 16–20, 2024 | 449 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 48% | 47% | – | 0% | 2% | 3% |
420 (LV) | 48% | 48% | – | 0% | 1% | 3% | |||
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[84] | October 16–18, 2024 | 529 (LV) | – | 46% | 47% | – | 1% | 1% | 5% |
AtlasIntel[39] | October 12–17, 2024 | 1,171 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | – | 2% | 0% | 2% |
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[40][D] | October 8−15, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 47% | – | – | 1% | 6%[j] |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[85] | October 12–14, 2024 | 838 (LV) | – | 47% | 47% | – | 0% | 1% | 5% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[86] | September 27 – October 2, 2024 | 514 (LV) | – | 48% | 47% | – | 1% | 1% | 3% |
TIPP Insights[52][I] | September 23−25, 2024 | 1,044 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 43% | 1% | 0% | − | 9% |
736 (LV) | 50% | 49% | 0% | 0% | − | 1% | |||
AtlasIntel[54] | September 20–25, 2024 | 858 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 48% | – | 1% | – | – |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[56] | September 19–25, 2024 | 574 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 44% | – | 3% | 4% | 3% |
516 (LV) | 50% | 44% | – | 2% | 2% | 2% | |||
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[87] | September 16–19, 2024 | 652 (LV) | – | 45% | 45% | – | 0% | 1% | 9% |
Noble Predictive Insights[61] | September 9−16, 2024 | 812 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 43% | – | 0% | 1% | 10%[y] |
692 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 47% | – | 0% | 1% | 5%[z] | ||
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[88] | September 6–9, 2024 | 698 (LV) | – | 45% | 46% | – | 1% | 1% | 7% |
YouGov[89][B] | August 23 – September 3, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 49% | 46% | 0% | 1% | – | 4%[g] |
CNN/SSRS[90] | August 23–29, 2024 | 976 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 47% | – | 1% | 1% | 3% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[91] | August 25–28, 2024 | 490 (LV) | – | 47% | 47% | – | 1% | 0% | 5% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[66] | August 23–26, 2024 | 416 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 48% | 46% | – | 2% | 3% | 1% |
450 (RV) | 48% | 45% | – | 2% | 4% | 1% | |||
Fox News[67] | August 23–26, 2024 | 1,026 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 46% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2%[g] |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wall Street Journal[47] | September 28 – October 8, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 42% | 47% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 8% |
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[51][H] | September 23–29, 2024 | 407 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 47% | 47% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 4% |
Rasmussen Reports (R)[68][M] | August 13–18, 2024 | 980 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 46% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 4% |
Focaldata[69] | August 6–16, 2024 | 678 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 42% | 7% | – | 0% | 1% | 2% |
678 (RV) | 49% | 39% | 9% | – | 0% | 1% | 2% | |||
678 (A) | 49% | 39% | 9% | – | 0% | 1% | 2% | |||
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[92] | August 12–15, 2024 | 536 (LV) | – | 42% | 43% | 6% | – | 1% | 1% | 7% |
New York Times/Siena College[70] | August 12–15, 2024 | 677 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 45% | 6% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
677 (LV) | 44% | 46% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 4% | |||
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[71] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 403 (LV) | – | 42% | 47% | 5% | 0% | 1% | – | 5% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[93] | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 470 (LV) | – | 40% | 40% | 5% | – | 1% | 0% | 14% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[73] | July 24–28, 2024 | 454 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 43% | 43% | 7% | – | 1% | 3% | 3% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[94] | July 22–24, 2024 | 435 (LV) | – | 43% | 45% | 5% | – | 1% | 0% | 6% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Strategies 360[95] | August 7–14, 2024 | 350 (RV) | ± 5.2% | 48% | 42% | 5% | 5% |
Trafalgar Group (R)[96] | August 6–8, 2024 | 1,087 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 48% | 3% | 4%[aa] |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Joe Biden announces his withdrawal; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||
InsiderAdvantage (R)[74] | July 15–16, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 49% | 9% |
Emerson College[97][P] | July 15–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 46% | 13% |
Rasmussen Reports (R)[98][Q] | July 5–12, 2024 | 761 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 50% | 5% |
Echelon Insights[99][R] | July 1–8, 2024 | 402 (LV) | ± 6.6% | 41% | 50% | 9% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[100] | July 1–5, 2024 | 452 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
Emerson College[101][P] | June 30 – July 2, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 47% | 12% |
Remington Research Group (R)[102] | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 47% | 13% |
National Public Affairs[103] | June 28 – July 1, 2024 | 817 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 39% | 49% | 12%[ab] |
Emerson College[104] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
50%[f] | 50% | – | ||||
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[105][D] | June 12–18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
Fox News[106] | June 1–4, 2024 | 1,069 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 50% | 5% |
The Tyson Group[107][S] | May 22–25, 2024 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[108] | May 19–21, 2024 | 522 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 42% | 50% | 8% |
494 (LV) | 43% | 51% | 6% | |||
Prime Group[109][T] | May 9–16, 2024 | 468 (RV) | – | 50% | 50% | – |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[75] | May 7–13, 2024 | 459 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[110] | May 6–13, 2024 | 402 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 40% | 49% | 11% |
New York Times/Siena College[111] | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 614 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 50% | 12% |
614 (LV) | 38% | 51% | 11% | |||
Emerson College[112] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 45% | 11% |
49%[f] | 51% | – | ||||
John Zogby Strategies[113][U] | April 13–21, 2024 | 517 (LV) | – | 44% | 50% | 6% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[114] | April 8–15, 2024 | 450 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 43% | 51% | 6% |
Wall Street Journal[115] | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
Echelon Insights[116][V] | March 12–19, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.8% | 44% | 51% | 5% |
Emerson College[117] | March 12–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 44% | 15% |
49%[f] | 51% | – | ||||
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[118] | March 8–15, 2024 | 447 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
Noble Predictive Insights[119] | February 27 – March 5, 2024 | 829 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 45% | 15% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[120] | February 12–20, 2024 | 445 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
Emerson College[76] | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 46% | 14% |
Focaldata[121] | January 17–23, 2024 | 704 (A) | – | 40% | 43% | 17%[ac] |
– (LV) | 42% | 44% | 14%[ad] | |||
– (LV) | 49%[f] | 51% | – | |||
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[122] | January 16–21, 2024 | 457 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 40% | 48% | 12% |
Emerson College[123] | January 5–8, 2024 | 1,294 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D)[124] | December 3–7, 2023 | (RVs) | – | 40% | 44% | 14% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[125] | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 451 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[126] | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 437 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
Emerson College[127] | October 30 – November 4, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 46% | 14% |
New York Times/Siena College[77] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 611 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 52% | 7% |
611 (LV) | 41% | 52% | 7% | |||
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[128] | October 5–10, 2023 | 503 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 43% | 11% |
CNN[129] | September 29 – October 3, 2023 | 1,251 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
Vote TXT[130] | May 15–19, 2023 | 412 (RV) | – | 41% | 48% | 11% |
Prime Group[131][T] | June 14–28, 2023 | 500 (RV) | – | 51% | 49% | – |
39% | 39% | 22%[ae] | ||||
Noble Predictive Insights[132] | April 18–26, 2023 | 613 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 40% | 12% |
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[133] | April 17–20, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
OH Predictive Insights[134] | January 30 – February 6, 2023 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 42% | 18% |
Rasmussen Reports (R)[135][M] | November 8–9, 2022 | 679 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 45% | 14% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research[136][W] | October 24–27, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 48% | 5% |
Rasmussen Reports (R)[137][X] | October 13–17, 2022 | 707 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 49% | 14% |
Emerson College[138] | September 8–10, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 43% | 17% |
Emerson College[139] | July 7–10, 2022 | 2,000 (RV) | ± 2.1% | 40% | 43% | 17% |
Blueprint Polling (D)[140] | March 21–24, 2022 | 671 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 34% | 44% | 22% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[141] | July 16–18, 2024 | 412 (LV) | – | 41% | 44% | 7% | – | 1% | 7%[ab] |
Emerson College[97][P] | July 15–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 43% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 8%[af] |
Rasmussen Reports (R)[98][Q] | July 5–12, 2024 | 761 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 47% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 3% |
YouGov[142][B] | July 4–12, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 42% | 46% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 8% |
Echelon Insights[99][R] | July 1–8, 2024 | 402 (LV) | ± 6.6% | 35% | 45% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 7%[af] |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[100] | July 1–5, 2024 | 452 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 39% | 45% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 8%[af] |
National Public Affairs[103] | June 28 – July 1, 2024 | 817 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 33% | 42% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 8% |
Emerson College[104] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 42% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 8% |
Fox News[106] | June 1–4, 2024 | 1,069 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 45% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 4% |
The Tyson Group[107][Y] | May 22–25, 2024 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 40% | 9% | 1% | 2% | 11% |
Prime Group[109][T] | May 9–16, 2024 | 468 (RV) | – | 43% | 44% | 10% | 3% | 0% | – |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[75] | May 7–13, 2024 | 459 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 39% | 44% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 7% |
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[110] | May 6–13, 2024 | 402 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 35% | 43% | 10% | 2% | 3% | 7% |
New York Times/Siena College[111] | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 614 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 27% | 41% | 12% | 0% | 2% | 18%[ag] |
614 (LV) | 30% | 44% | 11% | 0% | 1% | 14%[ag] | |||
Emerson College[112] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 42% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 11% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[114] | April 8–15, 2024 | 450 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 34% | 48% | 7% | 2% | 3% | 6% |
Wall Street Journal[115] | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 33% | 37% | 15% | 2% | 2% | 11%[ag] |
Emerson College[117] | March 12–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 41% | 9% | 1% | 2% | 11% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[118] | March 8–15, 2024 | 447 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 36% | 42% | 11% | 1% | 1% | 11% |
Noble Predictive Insights[119] | February 27 – March 5, 2024 | 829 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 33% | 40% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 10% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[120] | February 12–20, 2024 | 445 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 37% | 44% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 9% |
Emerson College[76] | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 34% | 44% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 14% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[122] | January 16–21, 2024 | 457 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 31% | 43% | 12% | 1% | 2% | 11% |
Emerson College[123] | January 5–8, 2024 | 1,294 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 39% | 42% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 12% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[143] | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 451 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 37% | 42% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 7% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P2 Insights[144][Z] | June 11–20, 2024 | 650 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 37% | 40% | 8% | 15% |
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[105][D] | June 12–18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 44% | 10% | 9% |
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[108] | May 19–21, 2024 | 522 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 40% | 44% | 9% | 7% |
494 (LV) | 40% | 46% | 8% | 6% | |||
Iron Light Intelligence[145][AA] | May 17–21, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | 37% | 15% | 14% |
P2 Insights[146][Z] | May 13−21, 2024 | 650 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 40% | 41% | 9% | 10% |
New York Times/Siena College[147] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 611 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 31% | 38% | 23% | 8% |
611 (LV) | 34% | 40% | 19% | 7% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[148] | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 437 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 35% | 39% | 11% | 1% | 14% |
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Zogby Strategies[113][U] | April 13–21, 2024 | 517 (LV) | – | 39% | 51% | 10% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Zogby Strategies[113][U] | April 13–21, 2024 | 517 (LV) | – | 40% | 46% | 14% |
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Times/Siena College[149] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 611 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 38% | 44% | 18% |
611 (LV) | 37% | 46% | 17% |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Times/Siena College[149] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 611 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
611 (LV) | 41% | 45% | 14% | |||
Vote TXT[130] | May 15–19, 2023 | 412 (RV) | – | 36% | 46% | 17% |
Noble Predictive Insights[132] | April 18–26, 2023 | 613 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[133] | April 17–20, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 44% | 10% |
OH Predictive Insights[134] | January 30 – February 6, 2023 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 36% | 42% | 22% |
Emerson College[139] | July 7–10, 2022 | 2,000 (RV) | ± 2.1% | 38% | 43% | 19% |
Gavin Newsom vs. Ron DeSantis
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Susquehanna Polling & Research[136][W] | October 24–27, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 42% | 46% | 12% |
Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College[76] | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 32% | 49% | 19% |
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | 724,498 | 50.7% | 3.03% | ||
Democratic | 678,399 | 47.4% | 2.66% | ||
Libertarian | 5,769 | 0.4% | 0.65% | ||
Independent American |
|
2,635 | 0.2% | ||
None of These Candidates | 18,814 | 1.3% | 0.3% | ||
Total votes | 1,430,115 | 100.00% |
Trump became the first Republican to win Nevada since George W. Bush in 2004, as well as the first Republican to win Washoe County since 2004.
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Nevada
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ If a candidate wins all of Nevada's delegates, the NRP chair is automatically unbound. He has pledged his support to Trump.
- ^ a b Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ a b "Blank / null / won't vote" with 1%
- ^ a b "Someone else" & None of these candidates with 1% each
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ a b c d e f g h "Other" with 1%
- ^ a b "Someone else" with 2%; None of these candidates with 1%
- ^ a b "Other" with 2%
- ^ a b None of these candidates with 2%
- ^ "Other" with 4%
- ^ None of these candidates & "Someone else" with 1% each
- ^ None of these candidates with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
- ^ "Would not vote" with 2%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 4%
- ^ "None of the above" with 4%; "Others" with 1%
- ^ a b "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ "Other" with 8%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 2%
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%; None of these candidates with 1%
- ^ a b c d Not on the ballot.
- ^ a b Joel Skousen (C) with 0%
- ^ None of these candidates with 3%
- ^ None of these candidates with 1%
- ^ "Others" with 2%
- ^ a b Chase Oliver (L) with 0%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 10%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 7%
- ^ No Labels candidate
- ^ a b c Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
- ^ a b c Lars Mapstead (L) with 2%
- ^ Randall Terry was nominated by the national Constitution Party, though the state party nominated Joel Skousen.
Partisan clients
- ^ Poll sponsored by RealClearWorld
- ^ a b c d Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by American Thinker
- ^ a b c d Poll commissioned by AARP
- ^ Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
- ^ Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
- ^ Poll conducted for the Article III Project
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by American Greatness
- ^ Poll sponsored by TrendingPolitics
- ^ Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republican candidates
- ^ Poll conducted for the Democracy Defense Project
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
- ^ Poll conducted for Competitiveness Coalition
- ^ Poll sponsored by the Senate Opportunity Fund
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation PAC
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Heartland Institute
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by NetChoice
- ^ Poll sponsored by Breaking Battlegrounds
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump and third party candidates
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
- ^ Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by BUSR
- ^ Poll sponsored by Capitol Resource Institute
- ^ Poll sponsored by Breaking Battlegrounds
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by Building America's Future, which supports Republican candidates
- ^ Poll commissioned by League of American Workers
References
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