2024 United States Senate election in Minnesota
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Klobuchar: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% White: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Minnesota |
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Minnesota was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Minnesota. Democratic incumbent Amy Klobuchar won a fourth term in office, defeating Republican former basketball player Royce White. Primary elections took place on August 13, 2024.[1]
Klobuchar won re-election by a wide margin,[2] but this was her narrowest margin of victory out of her four Senate campaigns, as well as the first time that she failed to sweep all eight of the state's congressional districts.
Background
[edit]Minnesota is considered to be a slightly to moderately blue state at the federal level. In the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden carried Minnesota by about seven percentage points. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats, all statewide executive offices, and both state legislative chambers.[3][4]
Klobuchar was first elected in 2006, defeating former U.S. Representative Mark Kennedy. She won re-election in 2012 and 2018 by large margins.[5]
This race is considered to be clearly favoring Klobuchar, as she has won all three of her Senate elections by more than 20 points and typically over-performs other down-ballot candidates.[6]
Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Amy Klobuchar, incumbent U.S. senator[7]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Steve Carlson, business consultant and perennial candidate[8]
- Ahmad Hassan, businessman and perennial candidate[8]
- George Kalberer, financial management executive and candidate for Minnesota's 1st congressional district in 2022[8]
- Ole Savior, artist and perennial candidate[8]
Endorsements
[edit]- U.S representatives
- Gabby Giffords, former U.S. representative from Arizona's 8th congressional district (2007–2012)[9]
- Organizations
- AIPAC[10]
- EMILY's List[11]
- End Citizens United[12]
- Feminist Majority PAC[13]
- Giffords[9]
- Jewish Democratic Council of America[14]
- J Street PAC[15]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[16]
- League of Conservation Voters[17]
- Let America Vote[12]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[18]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[19]
- Population Connection Action Fund[20]
- Political parties
Fundraising
[edit]Campaign finance reports as of July 24, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Amy Klobuchar (DFL) | $18,972,719 | $16,340,965 | $6,567,231 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[22] |
Results
[edit]Klobuchar swept the primary, earning more than 90% of the vote in every county of the state. She recorded her best performance in Pope County, while her worst performance was in Anoka County. There, she came the closest to slipping below 90%, having won 90.00471% of the vote.[23]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic (DFL) | Amy Klobuchar (incumbent) | 305,055 | 94.29% | |
Democratic (DFL) | Steve Carlson | 9,535 | 2.95% | |
Democratic (DFL) | Ahmad Hassan | 4,891 | 1.51% | |
Democratic (DFL) | Ole Savior | 2,478 | 0.77% | |
Democratic (DFL) | George Kalberer | 1,578 | 0.49% | |
Total votes | 323,540 | 100.0% |
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Royce White, former NBA player and candidate for Minnesota's 5th congressional district in 2022[25]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- John Berman, engineer and perennial candidate[26]
- Loner Blue, retiree and convicted felon[8]
- Joe Fraser, banker[27]
- Alycia Gruenhagen, food co-op manager and Democratic candidate for Minnesota's 7th congressional district in 2020 and 2022[8]
- Patrick Munro, landscaping company owner and perennial candidate[26]
- Raymond Petersen, truck driver[8]
- Christopher Seymore, teacher and perennial candidate[8]
Declined
[edit]- Michelle Benson, former state senator (2011–2023) and candidate for governor in 2022[28]
- Paul Gazelka, former Majority Leader of the Minnesota Senate (2017–2021) from the 9th district (2011–2023) and candidate for governor in 2022[28]
- Walter Hudson, state representative (2023–present)[28]
- Scott Jensen, former state senator (2017–2021) and nominee for governor in 2022[28]
- Erik Paulsen, former U.S. representative from Minnesota's 3rd congressional district (2009–2019)[28]
- Kendall Qualls, healthcare technology executive, nominee for Minnesota's 3rd congressional district in 2020, and candidate for governor in 2022[28]
- Jim Schultz, lawyer and nominee for attorney general in 2022[28]
- Ryan Wilson, medical device research company CEO and nominee for state auditor in 2022[28]
Endorsements
[edit]- U.S. Senators
- Rudy Boschwitz, former U.S. Senator from Minnesota (1978–1991)[29]
- Norm Coleman, former U.S. Senator from Minnesota (2003–2009)[29]
- Statewide officials
- Tim Pawlenty, former governor of Minnesota (2003–2011)[29]
- Organizations
- U.S. Representatives
- Individuals
- Steve Bannon, former White House Chief Strategist[31] and podcast host
- Alex Jones, Infowars owner and host[31]
- Kari Lake, former KSAZ-TV news anchor[32]
- Mike Lindell, CEO of MyPillow[33]
- Political parties
Fundraising
[edit]Campaign finance reports as of July 24, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Joe Fraser (R) | $68,438 | $45,860 | $22,578 |
Royce White (R) | $132,721 | $79,782 | $52,940 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[22] |
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Royce White | 74,814 | 38.50% | |
Republican | Joe Fraser | 56,909 | 29.29% | |
Republican | Raymond Petersen | 16,237 | 8.36% | |
Republican | Alycia Gruenhagen | 15,017 | 7.73% | |
Republican | John Berman | 14,158 | 7.29% | |
Republican | Patrick Munro | 9,444 | 4.86% | |
Republican | Christopher Seymore | 5,020 | 2.58% | |
Republican | Loner Blue | 2,727 | 1.40% | |
Total votes | 194,336 | 100.0% |
Third-party and independent candidates
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Joyce Lacey (Independence—Alliance), guardianship advocate and Republican candidate for governor in 2022[35]
- Rebecca Whiting (Libertarian), farmer[36]
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[37] | Solid D | November 9, 2023 |
Inside Elections[38] | Solid D | November 9, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[39] | Safe D | November 9, 2023 |
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[40] | Safe D | August 26, 2024 |
Elections Daily[41] | Safe D | May 4, 2023 |
CNalysis[42] | Solid D | November 21, 2023 |
RealClearPolitics[43] | Solid D | August 5, 2024 |
Split Ticket[44] | Safe D | October 30, 2024 |
538[45] | Solid D | October 31, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]- Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Amy Klobuchar (DFL) |
Royce White (R) |
Undecided [a] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RealClearPolitics | October 16 - November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 52.0% | 39.0% | 9.0% | Klobuchar +13.0% |
538 | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 51.2% | 38.4% | 10.4% | Klobuchar +12.8% |
270toWin | October 16 - November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 49.7% | 36.0% | 14.3% | Klobuchar +13.7% |
Average | 51.0% | 37.8% | 11.2% | Klobuchar +13.2% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Amy Klobuchar (DFL) |
Royce White (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AtlasIntel | November 1–4, 2024 | 2,065 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 53% | 41% | 4%[c] | 2% |
Research Co. | November 2–3, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 55% | 38% | 3%[d] | 4% |
ActiVote | October 8–31, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 56% | 44% | – | – |
Chism Strategies | October 28–30, 2024 | 534 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 52% | 35% | 3%[e] | 11% |
SurveyUSA[A] | October 24–28, 2024 | 728 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 35% | 3% | 10% |
Embold Research[B] | October 16–22, 2024 | 1,734 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 52% | 40% | 2%[f] | 6% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[C] | October 12–14, 2024 | 544 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 42% | 35% | 5%[g] | 19% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[C] | September 27 – October 2, 2024 | 551 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 38% | 6%[h] | 11% |
SurveyUSA[A] | September 23–26, 2024 | 646 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 53% | 35% | 5% | 8% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[C] | September 16–19, 2024 | 703 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 34% | 7%[i] | 17% |
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[D] | September 16–18, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 51% | 40% | 1%[j] | 8% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[C] | September 6–9, 2024 | 617 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 36% | 5%[k] | 16% |
Embold Research[B] | September 4–8, 2024 | 1,616 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 52% | 41% | – | 7% |
SurveyUSA[A] | August 27–29, 2024 | 635 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 50% | 36% | 4% | 11% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[C] | August 25–28, 2024 | 426 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 34% | 8%[l] | 18% |
SurveyUSA[A] | July 23–25, 2024 | 656 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 55% | 33% | 4% | 8% |
Fox News | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,071 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 57% | 40% | – | 2% |
Emerson College[E] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 37% | 4% | 10% |
SurveyUSA[A] | June 12–16, 2024 | 626 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 49% | 35% | 4% | 12% |
- Amy Klobuchar vs. Joe Fraser
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Amy Klobuchar (DFL) |
Joe Fraser (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA[A] | July 23–25, 2024 | 656 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 54% | 33% | 4% | 10% |
Emerson College[E] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 37% | 5% | 10% |
SurveyUSA[A] | June 12–16, 2024 | 626 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 49% | 36% | 4% | 11% |
SurveyUSA[A] | May 8–11, 2024 | 625 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 34% | 5% | 12% |
SurveyUSA[A] | April 3–7, 2024 | 608 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 51% | 34% | 6% | 10% |
SurveyUSA[A] | February 23–28, 2024 | 1,603 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 33% | 5% | 14% |
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic (DFL) | Amy Klobuchar (incumbent) | 1,792,427 | 56.20% | −4.11% | |
Republican | Royce White | 1,291,697 | 40.50% | +4.29% | |
Libertarian | Rebecca Whiting | 55,209 | 1.73% | N/A | |
Independence | Joyce Lacey | 46,376 | 1.45% | N/A | |
Write-in | 3,574 | 0.11% | +0.07% | ||
Total votes | 3,189,283 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Democratic (DFL) hold |
By congressional district
[edit]Klobuchar won 5 of 8 congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican.[47]
District | Klobuchar | White | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 49% | 48% | Brad Finstad |
2nd | 57% | 40% | Angie Craig |
3rd | 63% | 34% | Dean Phillips (118th Congress) |
Kelly Morrison (119th Congress) | |||
4th | 70% | 26% | Betty McCollum |
5th | 82% | 15% | Ilhan Omar |
6th | 45% | 52% | Tom Emmer |
7th | 40% | 57% | Michelle Fischbach |
8th | 48% | 49% | Pete Stauber |
Notes
[edit]- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "Other" with 2%; "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 2%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
- ^ Joyce Lacey (I) with 2%; Rebecca Whiting (L) with 1%
- ^ "Would not vote" with 2%
- ^ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%; Lacey (I) with 2%; Whiting (L) with 1%
- ^ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 3%; Lacey (I) with 2%; Whiting (L) with 1%
- ^ Lacey (I) with 3%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 4%
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ Lacey (I) with 2%; Whiting (L), "Won't vote if these are the candidates", and "Other" with 1%
- ^ Lacey (I) with 3%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 3%; "Other" with 2%
- Partisan clients
References
[edit]- ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
- ^ "Live Minnesota election results: Sen. Amy Klobuchar wins race". Fox 9. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 5, 2024.
- ^ "Live election results: 2020 Minnesota results". www.politico.com. Retrieved April 19, 2023.
- ^ Faircloth, Ryan; Tribune, Briana Bierschbach Star (November 9, 2022). "Democrats take control of the Minnesota Legislature". Star Tribune. Retrieved April 19, 2023.
- ^ "Minnesota Secretary Of State - 2006 General Election Results". www.sos.state.mn.us. Retrieved April 19, 2023.
- ^ Golshan, Tara (February 10, 2019). "Sen. Amy Klobuchar has won every one of her elections by huge margins. Now she's running for president". Vox. Retrieved April 19, 2023.
- ^ Everett, Burgess (October 5, 2022). "Senate Dems face brutal 2024 map with at least eight undecided incumbents". Politico. Retrieved October 5, 2022.
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) said she's made it 'very clear' she's running again
- ^ a b c d e f g h "Candidate Filings, 2024 State General Election, United States Senator". Office of the Minnesota Secretary of State. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ a b "GIFFORDS PAC Endorses Senator Amy Klobuchar for Reelection". Giffords. January 24, 2024. Retrieved January 26, 2024.
- ^ "- AIPAC Political Portal". candidates.aipacpac.org. Archived from the original on August 27, 2023. Retrieved August 27, 2023.
- ^ Chou, Lauren (May 10, 2023). "EMILYs List Endorses Amy Klobuchar for Reelection to the United States Senate". EMILYs List. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
- ^ a b "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Senator Klobuchar for Reelection". March 30, 2023.
- ^ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
- ^ "Jewish Dems: President Biden Stands with Israel". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved May 10, 2024.
- ^ "Amy Klobuchar". JStreetPAC. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
- ^ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
- ^ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
- ^ Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsed Candidates". Planned Parenthood Action Fund. Retrieved November 6, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
- ^ Leier, Joe. "Minnesota Democrats endorse Klobuchar for US Senate race". The Mighty 790 KFGO | KFGO. Retrieved June 3, 2024.
- ^ a b "2024 Election United States Senate - Minnesota". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
- ^ "AP News". 2024 Minnesota Election Results. Retrieved August 24, 2024.
- ^ a b "State Primary Tuesday, August 13, 2024 - U.S. Senator". Minnesota Secretary of State.
- ^ Whalen, Eamon (August 23, 2023). "Royce White Announces Run for Senate With New Conspiracy Theory". Mother Jones. Retrieved August 23, 2023.
- ^ a b Frisk, Garrett (July 5, 2023). "Minnesota Democrat Amy Klobuchar Challenged by Two Republicans". Diamond Eye Candidate Report. Retrieved July 5, 2023.
- ^ Brown, Kyle (January 29, 2024). "West metro Republican launches campaign challenging Klobuchar for Senate seat". KSTP.com 5 Eyewitness News. Retrieved January 30, 2024.
- ^ a b c d e f g h Van Oot, Tery (August 21, 2023). "Here's who's not running for U.S. Senate in Minnesota next year". Axios.
- ^ a b c Zdechlik, Mark (July 5, 2024). "Sharply contrasted GOP candidates vie for Senate nod against Klobuchar". Minnesota Public Radio. Retrieved July 23, 2024.
- ^ Smilk, Carin M. (July 25, 2024). "RJC endorses Joe Fraser in Minnesota Senate race". JNS.org. Retrieved July 26, 2024.
- ^ a b c Schwartz, Rafi (June 18, 2024). "Who is Royce White, the basketball star challenging Sen. Amy Klobuchar?". The Week. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
[White's party endorsement] can also be attributed to the 'support of national far-right Republican figures' such as Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), InfoWars host Alex Jones, and top Donald Trump adviser Steve Bannon
- ^ Hank Long (June 18, 2024). "Campaigns trade barbs, tout high-profile endorsements as GOP Senate primary heats up". Alpha News. Retrieved June 24, 2024.
Royce White announced Tuesday that his campaign has the support of Kari Lake.
- ^ Kashiwagi, Sydney (August 13, 2024). "Royce White and Joe Fraser face off in GOP primary for U.S. Senate". Star Tribune. Retrieved August 13, 2024.
- ^ Vondracek, Christopher (May 18, 2024). "In a surprise, Minnesota Republicans back Royce White to run against Amy Klobuchar". Star Tribune. Retrieved May 18, 2024.
- ^ Tillman, Scott (July 31, 2023). "Joyce Lacey Pledges to Support Term Limits on Congress". US Term Limits. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Petitioning for LPMN-Endorsed Candidates". Libertarian Party of Minnesota. Retrieved June 24, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
- ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
- ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
- ^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
- ^ "Battle for the Senate 2024". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved August 5, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Senate Forecast". Split Ticket. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
- ^ "Index - Election Results". Minnesota Secretary of State. November 6, 2024. Retrieved November 19, 2024.
- ^ "Home - Election Results".
External links
[edit]- Official campaign websites