2024 United States presidential election in Maine
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| Elections in Maine |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Maine took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Maine voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Maine has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
Maine is a sparsely populated rural state in Northern New England. Unlike all other states except Nebraska, Maine awards two electoral votes based on the statewide vote, and one vote for each congressional district. The at-large votes are expected to be contested by both parties, but are favored to be carried by the Democratic presidential candidate, having last been won by a Republican in 1988. However, the two congressional districts are expected to be split between the Democratic and Republican candidates with ME-1 being a strongly blue district and ME-2 being a moderately red district, something that has occurred in 2016 and 2020.
Maine at-large was considered to potentially be a secondary battleground during the 2024 election cycle. In 2016, Trump narrowly lost Maine at-large to Hillary Clinton by less than 3% and a margin of 22,142 votes. However, in 2020 Biden won the state by just over 9% and 74,302 votes, though Trump held Maine's 2nd congressional district. However, most polls and analysts accurately predicted Maine to remain in the Democratic camp at-large in the November 2024 general election.
This election will coincide with five referendum questions, including a referendum on the state flag as well as a U.S. Senate election, U.S. House elections for Maine's two congressional districts, and various other state, county and local elections.
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking (1st) | Ranking (2nd) | Ranking (statewide) | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Economist[2] | Safe D | Likely R | Likely D | September 5, 2024 |
| Cook Political Report[3] | Safe D | Likely R | Likely D | August 27, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[4] | Safe D | Likely R | Safe D | November 4, 2024 |
| CNalysis[5] | Safe D | Very Likely R | Solid D | November 4, 2024 |
| 538[6] | Safe D | Likely R | Likely D | July 15, 2024 |
| CNN[7] | Safe D | Lean R | Safe D | January 14, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] | Safe D | Likely R | Likely D | June 29, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Safe D | Lean R | Likely D | April 26, 2023 |
| NBC News[10] | Safe D | Likely R | Likely D | October 6, 2024 |
| YouGov[11] | Safe D | Tossup | Safe D | November 1, 2024 |
| Split Ticket[12] | Safe D | Likely R | Likely D | November 1, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[13] | August 15–19, 2024 | 951 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 58% | 41% | 1% |
| University of New Hampshire[14] | July 23–25, 2024 | 1,445 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 54% | 45% | 1% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[15] | October 29 – November 2, 2024 | 1,485 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 52% | 41% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 4%[b] |
| SurveyUSA[16][A] | October 24–29, 2024 | 1,079 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 51% | 43% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Pan Atlantic Research[17] | September 5–15, 2024 | 812 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 41% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[13] | August 15–19, 2024 | 951 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 55% | 38% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| University of New Hampshire[14] | July 23–25, 2024 | 1,445 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 48% | 40% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 5%[b] |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[18][B] | April 13–21, 2024 | 350 (LV) | – | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| Pan Atlantic Research[19] | February 6–14, 2024 | 791 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 32% | 38% | 30%[c] |
| Digital Research[20] | October 3 – November 2, 2023 | 614 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 36% | 35% | 29%[d] |
| Emerson College[21] | September 19–20, 2022 | 1,164 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 51% | 40% | 9% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
RCV count |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Digital Research[22] | April 8–30, 2024 | 609 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 40% | 41% | 10% | 1% | 6% | 2% |
| 2 | 41% | 41% | 11% | 1% | 6% | Elim | ||||
| 3 | 41% | 42% | 11% | Elim | 6% | Elim | ||||
| 4 | 42% | 43% | 15% | Elim | Elim | Elim | ||||
| 5 | 51% | 49% | Elim | Elim | Elim | Elim |
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[18][B] | April 13–21, 2024 | 350 (LV) | – | 35% | 53% | 12% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[18][B] | April 13–21, 2024 | 350 (LV) | – | 43% | 37% | 20% |
Maine's 1st congressional district
[edit]Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pan Atlantic Research[17] | September 5–15, 2024 | 414 (LV) | – | 58% | 32% | 10% |
| University of New Hampshire[13] | August 15–19, 2024 | 476 (LV) | – | 64% | 36% | – |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[15] | October 29 – November 2, 2024 | 801 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 60% | 36% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2%[b] |
| SurveyUSA[16][A] | October 24–29, 2024 | 482 (LV) | – | 58% | 37% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 3% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[13] | August 15–19, 2024 | 476 (LV) | – | 62% | 33% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2%[b] |
Maine's 2nd congressional district
[edit]Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Axis Research[23][C] | October 17–20, 2024 | 411 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 50% | 41% | 8%[f] |
| Pan Atlantic Research[17] | September 5–15, 2024 | 398 (LV) | – | 49% | 42% | 9% |
| University of New Hampshire[13] | August 15–19, 2024 | 432 (LV) | – | 47% | 52% | 1% |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[15] | October 29 – November 2, 2024 | 683 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 44% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 5%[b] |
| SurveyUSA[16][A] | October 24–29, 2024 | 484 (LV) | – | 49% | 44% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 4% |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[13] | August 15–19, 2024 | 432 (LV) | – | 44% | 49% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | |||||
| Republican | |||||
| Libertarian | |||||
| Green | |||||
| Justice For All | |||||
| Write-in | |||||
| Total votes | |||||
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]The Maine Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 60,018 | 82.8% | 24 | ||
| Dean Phillips | 4,623 | 6.4% | |||
| Other candidates | 480 | 0.7% | |||
| Blank ballots | 7,359 | 10.2% | |||
| Total: | 72,480 | 100% | 24 | 8 | 32 |
Republican primary
[edit]The Maine Republican caucuses was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 79,034 | 71.92% | 20 | 0 | 20 |
| Nikki Haley | 27,912 | 25.40% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 1,191 | 1.08% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 440 | 0.40% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 299 | 0.27% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Blank ballots | 1,022 | 0.93% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 109,898 | 100.00% | 20 | 0 | 20 |
Attempted disqualification of Trump
[edit]Following a challenge to Trump's nomination petition for the Republican primary, the Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows on December 28, 2023 rejected Donald Trump's petition for the ballot on grounds of insurrection, similarly to what the Colorado Supreme Court ordered the secretary of state to do in Anderson v. Griswold for the Colorado primary.[27] On January 2, 2024, Trump appealed the ruling to the Maine Superior Court, arguing that Bellows is biased and that she has "no legal authority to consider the federal constitutional issues presented by the challengers".[28] On January 17, a Maine Superior Court judge ordered the Bellows to wait for the Colorado case to be adjudicated by the Supreme Court before upholding or modifying her decision. Bellows appealed this decision to the Maine Supreme Judicial Court,[29] and the appeal was dismissed on Janurary 24.[30] On March 4, 2024, the US Supreme Court ruled in Trump v. Anderson[31] that the Colorado courts could not order for Trump to be removed from the Republican primary ballot as it is a matter for Congress to legislate on, which it had not.[32] The secretary of state reversed her decision on the same day as the US Supreme Court's ruling.[33]
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Maine
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ a b c d e "Another Candidate" with 1%
- ^ "Another Candidate" with 21%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 10%
- ^ "Another Candidate" with 23%
- ^ "Third-party candidate" with 3%
- ^ "Another Candidate" with 19%
References
[edit]- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". Cook Political Report.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". The Hill.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". CNalysis.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". Inside Elections.
- ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Election Polls". YouGov.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forcast". Split Ticket. June 2, 2023.
- ^ a b c d e f McKinley, Sean; Smith, Andrew; Azem, Zachary; Keirns, Tracy (August 21, 2024). "Harris Ahead in Maine, CD2 Too-Close-to-Call". University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository.
- ^ a b McKinley, Sean; Smith, Andrew; Azem, Zachary; Keirns, Tracy (July 25, 2024). "Harris Holds Small Lead Over Trump in Maine After Biden Withdraws From Race". University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository.
- ^ a b c McKinley, Sean; Smith, Andrew; Azem, Zachary; Keirns, Tracy (November 3, 2024). "Harris Leads Statewide in Maine but Trump Has Small Lead in CD2". University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository.
- ^ a b c Kobin, Billy (November 1, 2024). "New poll finds Jared Golden and Donald Trump leading Maine's 2nd District". Bangor Daily News.
- ^ a b c Cover, Susan (September 18, 2024). "New Maine polls shows Harris leading Trump in race for president". Spectrum News.
- ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
- ^ a b c "The 63rd Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll - February 2024" (PDF). Pan Atlantic Research. February 26, 2024.
- ^ a b c Burnett, Traverse (January 12, 2024). "Critical Insights on Maine Tracking Survey - Fall 2023" (PDF).
- ^ Mumford, Camille (September 23, 2022). "Maine Poll: Mills Leads LePage by 12; Majority of Voters Concerned Over Lobsters on Unsustainable Seafood "Red List"". Emerson Polling.
- ^ Fay, Kevin (June 12, 2024). "Critical Insights on Maine Tracking Survey - Spring 2024" (PDF).
- ^ "State Of The Race Maine CD-2". Axis Research. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
- ^ "2024 General Candidate List". Maine.gov. September 4, 2024. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
- ^ "Tabulations for Elections held in 2024: March 5, 2024 Presidential Primary Election". Maine Secretary of State. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
- ^ "Tabulations for Elections held in 2024: March 5, 2024 Presidential Primary Election". Maine Secretary of State. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
- ^ Cohen, Marshall (December 28, 2023). "Maine's top election official removes Trump from 2024 ballot | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
- ^ Russell, Jenna (January 2, 2024). "Trump Appeals Decision Barring Him From Maine Primary Ballot". The New York Times. Retrieved January 2, 2024.
- ^ "Maine secretary of state appeals superior court ruling in Trump ballot case". newscentermaine.com. January 19, 2024. Retrieved January 20, 2024.
- ^ Donald J. Trump v. Secretary of State et al., 2024 ME 5
- ^ 601 U.S. 100 (2024)
- ^ "Supreme Court rules states can't kick Trump off the ballot". NBC News. March 4, 2024. Archived from the original on March 6, 2024. Retrieved March 7, 2024.
- ^ Davis, Emma. "Sec. Bellows withdraws decision to disqualify Trump from ballot following U.S. Supreme Court ruling". Maine Morning Star. Retrieved November 7, 2024.
