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2024 United States Senate election in Indiana

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2024 United States Senate election in Indiana

← 2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →
 
Nominee Jim Banks Valerie McCray
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,654,350 1,093,341
Percentage 58.65% 38.76%

County results
Banks:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
McCray:      50–60%      60–70%

U.S. senator before election

Mike Braun
Republican

Elected U.S. senator

Jim Banks
Republican

The 2024 United States Senate election in Indiana was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Indiana. Republican congressman Jim Banks was elected to his first term, defeating Democratic psychologist Valerie McCray in the general election.[1] Banks will succeed Republican incumbent Mike Braun, who opted instead to run for governor.[2] This was the first election for this seat in which there was no incumbent running since 1958.[a]

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Disqualified

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Declined

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Endorsements

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Jim Banks (R)
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Individuals
Political Parties
Organizations

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of April 17, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Jim Banks (R) $4,731,928 $3,188,805 $2,878,607
Source: Federal Election Commission[39]

Polling

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Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Jim
Banks
Mitch
Daniels
Trey
Hollingsworth
Todd
Rokita
Victoria
Spartz
Other Undecided
Bellwether Research December 11–17, 2022 1,000 (LV) 14% 11% 16% 12% 9% 39%
10% 32% 9% 7% 7% 6% 29%
Response:AI[A] December 9–16, 2022 503 (RV) ±4.3% 14% 35% 6% 14% 16%[c] 17%

Results

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Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jim Banks 475,729 100.00%
Total votes 475,729 100.00%

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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  • Valerie McCray, psychologist and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[40]

Eliminated in primary

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Withdrew

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Declined

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Endorsements

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Valerie McCray
Labor unions

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Marc Carmichael (D) $115,161[d] $98,370 $16,125
Valerie McCray (D) $61,506[e] $45,953 $15,684
Keith Potts (D) $99,485[f] $98,302 $1,183
Source: Federal Election Commission[39]

Results

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Primary results by county:
  McCray
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Carmichael
  •   50–60%
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Valerie McCray 121,734 68.01%
Democratic Marc Carmichael 57,256 31.99%
Total votes 178,990 100.00%

Libertarian convention

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Nominee

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  • Andy Horning, engineer, perennial candidate, and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2012[46]

Write-in candidates

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Declared

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General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[48] Solid R November 9, 2023
Inside Elections[49] Solid R November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[50] Safe R November 9, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[51] Safe R June 8, 2024
Elections Daily[52] Safe R May 4, 2023
CNalysis[53] Solid R November 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics[54] Solid R August 5, 2024
Split Ticket[55] Safe R October 23, 2024
538[56] Solid R October 23, 2024

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Jim Banks (R) $5,553,816 $3,713,830 $3,175,470
Valerie McCray (D) $61,507[g] $45,953 $15,685
Source: Federal Election Commission[39]

Debate

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2024 United States Senate general election in Indiana debate
No. Date Host Moderator Link Participants
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Banks McCray Horning
1 October 29, 2024 Indiana Debate Commission Laura Merrifield Wilson Video A P P

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Jim
Banks (R)
Valerie
McCray (D)
Other Undecided
ActiVote October 5–28, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 57% 43%
ActiVote September 3 – October 5, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 56% 44%
ARW Strategies[B] September 23–25, 2024 600 (LV) 49% 35% 16%
Emerson College[C] September 12–13, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 33% 5%[h] 14%
Emerson College October 1–4, 2023 462 (RV) ± 4.4% 31% 22% 8%[i] 39%

Results

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2024 United States Senate election in Indiana[57]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Jim Banks 1,654,350 58.65% +7.92%
Democratic Valerie McCray 1,093,341 38.76% −6.08%
Libertarian {{{candidate}}} 72,944 2.59% N/A
Total votes 2,820,635 100.0%
Republican hold

Notes

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  1. ^ Richard Lugar ran for re-election to a seventh term in 2012, but lost in the Republican primary to Richard Mourdock.
  2. ^ a b Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Jennifer Ruth-Green with 4%; Curtis Hill with 2%; "Someone else" with 10%
  4. ^ $1,000 of this total was self-funded by Carmichael
  5. ^ $1,407 of this total was self-funded by McCray
  6. ^ $20,345 of this total was self-funded by Potts
  7. ^ $4,407 of this total was self-funded by McCray
  8. ^ Horning (L) with 5%
  9. ^ "Someone else" at 8%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll sponsored by Spartz's campaign.
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by IndyPolitics.org
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by The Hill

References

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  1. ^ "Indiana U.S. Senate Election Results 2024: McCray vs. Banks". The New York Times. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 7, 2024.
  2. ^ a b Wren, Adam. "Braun to run for Indiana governor, opening Senate seat in 2024". POLITICO.
  3. ^ a b Wright, David (January 17, 2023). "GOP Rep. Jim Banks announces Indiana US Senate campaign". CNN.
  4. ^ Carloni, Brittany (February 27, 2024). "Jim Banks won't face Republican challenger in May. Here's who was removed from the ballot". The Indianapolis Star. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
  5. ^ Weaver, Al (January 31, 2023). "Mitch Daniels passes on Senate campaign". The Hill.
  6. ^ Holcomb, Eric (June 15, 2023). "Op/Ed: America is in what I call the Disaster Paradox. Here's how we overcome it". The Indianapolis Star. Retrieved June 15, 2023. No, I am no genius or saint, am not running for U.S. House, Senate, or president and have never uttered the words, 'Only I can fix it.'
  7. ^ Wren, Adam (December 19, 2022). "'He's Got a Huge Problem'". Politico. Retrieved July 25, 2023.
  8. ^ Kevin Breuninger (June 5, 2023). "Mike Pence files paperwork to launch 2024 Republican presidential campaign". CNBC.
  9. ^ Weaver, Al (February 3, 2023). "Victoria Spartz passes on Senate run, to retire from Congress at end of term". The Hill.
  10. ^ "Indiana Attorney General Todd Rokita not seeking higher office". The Indianapolis Star. Retrieved February 22, 2023.
  11. ^ Weaver, Al (February 1, 2023). "Trump endorses Jim Banks for Indiana Senate seat". The Hill.
  12. ^ Shaw, Adan (January 23, 2023). "Jim Banks wins Stephen Miller's backing for 'bold pro-American agenda,' after launching Senate bid". Fox News.
  13. ^ "Pompeo endorses Rep. Jim Banks in Indiana Senate race". Washington Examiner. September 26, 2023. Archived from the original on September 27, 2023. Retrieved September 27, 2023.
  14. ^ Oshin, Olafimihan (February 2, 2023). "Banks lands first endorsement from Senate Republican leadership". The Hill.
  15. ^ a b c d Gans, Jared (February 21, 2023). "Ten Republican Senators hosting fundraiser for Banks' Senate bid". The Hill.
  16. ^ Howell, James (September 14, 2023). "Senator Mike Braun endorses Jim Banks for Senate seat". WRTV.
  17. ^ a b c "Indiana Rep. Jim Banks announces bid for Braun's Senate seat". NBC News. January 17, 2023. Retrieved January 17, 2023.
  18. ^ "Sen. Ted Cruz endorses Jim Banks for Indiana Senate". WTRC-FM. October 19, 2023.
  19. ^ "Steve Daines endorses Jim Banks". about.bgov.com. Bloomberg.com. February 2023. Retrieved February 1, 2023.
  20. ^ Elkind, Elizabeth (March 6, 2023). "McConnell to appear at fundraiser for Trump ally Jim Banks' Senate campaign". Fox News.
  21. ^ "Marco Rubio Endorses Jim Banks in Heated Hoosier Senate Race". American Reveille. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  22. ^ Sivak, David (March 23, 2023). "Jim Banks picks up endorsement of No. 2 Senate Republican". Washington Examiner.
  23. ^ "Republicans offer up nominees for quote of the week". Indiana Capital Chronicle. May 16, 2023. Retrieved June 1, 2023.
  24. ^ Shaw, Adan (January 31, 2023). "Sen. JD Vance of Ohio backs Rep. Jim Banks in Indiana's Senate GOP primary". Fox News.
  25. ^ Altimari, Daniela; McIntire, Mary Ellen; Ackley, Kate (February 23, 2023). "At the Races: Train wreck — it's not just a metaphor". Roll Call.
  26. ^ a b "Banks' shot: Rising conservative dives into Indiana Senate race". January 17, 2023.
  27. ^ McIntyre, Michael (July 25, 2023). "Endorsements Continue To Roll In For Congressman Banks' Bid For Senate". WOWO.
  28. ^ a b c "Jim Banks rakes in endorsements after jumping into Indiana Senate race". Washington Examiner. January 18, 2023. Retrieved July 26, 2023.
  29. ^ Garbacz, Steve (March 21, 2023). "Lt. Gov. Crouch endorses Banks for Senate". KPC News.
  30. ^ Gertz, Matt (January 18, 2023). "Rep. Jim Banks launches Senate campaign with tour of right-wing fever swamp". Media Matters for America.
  31. ^ Dwyer, Kayla (August 11, 2023). "Indiana Republican Party gives U.S. Rep. Jim Banks Senate endorsement, RNC support". The Indianapolis Star. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
  32. ^ "Support Pro-Israel Candidates".
  33. ^ "CatholicVote.org Candidate Fund Endorses Jim Banks for Senate".
  34. ^ "You Can Bank on Banks!". Eagle Forum. Retrieved March 15, 2024.
  35. ^ "IFA Endorses Mike Braun for Governor and Jim Banks for U.S. Senate Ahead of Next Week's Indiana Primary Elections". www.franchise.org. May 3, 2024. Retrieved May 6, 2024.
  36. ^ "Indiana". nrapvf.org. Retrieved April 23, 2024.
  37. ^ "SBA Pro-Life America's Candidate Fund Endorses Pro-Life Champion Jim Banks for U.S. Senate".
  38. ^ "We are pleased to announce our first endorsement in the 2024 cycle for conservative warrior @Jim_Banks! Jim is committed to an America First agenda and we are behind him 100%".
  39. ^ a b c "2024 Election United States Senate - Indiana". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 5, 2024.
  40. ^ Bergquist, Garrett (July 21, 2023). "McCray prioritizes mental health issues in 2024 US Senate bid". WISH-TV. Retrieved September 19, 2023.
  41. ^ Downard, Whitney (June 6, 2023). "Marc Carmichael announces campaign for U.S. Senate". Indiana Capital Chronicle. Retrieved June 7, 2023.
  42. ^ Bonilla Muñiz, Leslie (December 11, 2023). "Democrat Keith Potts drops out of U.S. Senate race". Indiana Capital Chronicle. Retrieved December 13, 2023.
  43. ^ "Joe Donnelly plans to stay on as ambassador to the Vatican through 2024, forgoing an Indiana governor or Senate run". Politico. June 13, 2023.
  44. ^ Wren, Adam; Stokols, Eli; Egan, Lauren (March 7, 2023). "Klain tells Indiana Dems he's not interested in a Senate bid". Politico.
  45. ^ "Labor 2024 | Indiana State AFL-CIO". inaflcio.org. Retrieved June 18, 2024.
  46. ^ Bergquist, Garrett (March 2, 2024). "Indiana Libertarians nominate 2024 candidates". WISH-TV. Retrieved March 3, 2024.
  47. ^ "May 7, 2024 Primary Election Candidates". Indiana Secretary of State. Retrieved January 10, 2024.
  48. ^ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  49. ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  50. ^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
  51. ^ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
  52. ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  53. ^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
  54. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2024". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved August 5, 2024.
  55. ^ "2024 Senate Forecast". Split Ticket. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  56. ^ "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  57. ^ "Indiana U.S. Senate Election Results". The New York Times. November 5, 2024. ISSN 1553-8095. Retrieved November 5, 2024.
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Official campaign websites