2024 United States presidential election in New Mexico
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| Elections in New Mexico |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in New Mexico took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New Mexico voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Mexico has five electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
A Southwestern state, New Mexico has voted for the winner of the popular vote in every presidential election since statehood except for 1976 (backing the losing candidate, Republican Gerald Ford, by merely 2.47% and 10,271 votes) and in addition to its bellwether status is today a moderately blue state. The last Republican to win the state was George W. Bush from neighboring Texas in 2004. Democrats have held all statewide offices since 2019 and Democratic presidential candidates have consistently won the state since 2008. New Mexico's Democratic lean can be largely credited to the state's sizeable Latino population, which in recent years has become a plurality.
Before Joe Biden withdrew, it was considered a battleground state by some.[2][3] However, the Democratic presidential candidate, Kamala Harris, is still favored to keep New Mexico in the blue column in 2024.[4][5][6]
New Mexico ended up going for Harris, but her 6-point margin was the worst for a Democrat since John Kerry, who narrowly lost the state to George W. Bush in 2004. Trump flipped majority-Hispanic Socorro County, becoming the first Republican to win the county since George H.W. Bush in 1988. This is only the second time since statehood that New Mexico voted for the popular vote loser, after 1976, and the first time ever that it voted for a Democrat who lost the popular vote.
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]The New Mexico Democratic primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 111,049 | 83.5% | 34 | 34 | |
| Uncommitted | 12,938 | 9.7% | |||
| Marianne Williamson | 8,935 | 6.7% | |||
| Total: | 132,922 | 100.0% | 34 | 11 | 45 |
Republican primary
[edit]The New Mexico Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 78,999 | 84.5% | |||
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 8,054 | 8.6% | |||
| Uncommitted | 3,130 | 3.3% | |||
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 2,428 | 2.6% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 886 | 0.9% | |||
| Total: | 93,497 | 100.00% | 22 | 0 | 22 |
Libertarian primary
[edit]The New Mexico Libertarian primary was held on June 6, 2024. 9 days after the 2024 Libertarian National Convention was held.[9]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Lars Mapstead | 432 | 56.5% |
| None of the Above | 332 | 43.5% |
| Total: | 764 | 100.0% |
| Source:[10] | ||
General election
[edit]Candidates
[edit]The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in New Mexico:[11]
- Kamala Harris, Democratic Party
- Donald Trump, Republican Party
- Chase Oliver, Libertarian Party
- Jill Stein, Green Party
- Claudia De la Cruz, Party for Socialism and Liberation
- Laura Ebke, Liberal Party USA
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Independent (withdrawn)
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[12] | Likely D | June 12, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[13] | Solid D | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] | Likely D | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[15] | Likely D | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[16] | Very Likely D | November 1, 2024 |
| CNN[17] | Lean D | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[18] | Likely D | August 20, 2024 |
| 538[19] | Likely D | June 11, 2024 |
| NBC News[20] | Likely D | October 6, 2024 |
| YouGov[21] | Safe D | October 16, 2024 |
| Split Ticket[22] | Likely D | November 1, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victory Insights[23] | November 1–3, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 49.6% | 44.7% | 5.7%[b] |
| SurveyUSA[24][A] | October 28–31, 2024 | 632 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 50% | 44% | 6%[c] |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[25][B] | October 24–26, 2024 | 749 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 44% | 7%[d] |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[26][B] | September 19−22, 2024 | 708 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 44% | 6% |
| SurveyUSA[27] | September 12–18, 2024 | 619 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 50% | 42% | 8% |
| The presidential debate between Harris and Trump hosted by ABC | ||||||
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||
| Democratic National Convention concludes | ||||||
| Emerson College[28] | August 20–22, 2024 | 956 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 52% | 42% | 6% |
| 54%[e] | 46% | – | ||||
| Democratic National Convention begins | ||||||
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[29] | October 12–14, 2024 | 382 (LV) | – | 49% | 45% | – | 2% | 1% | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[30] | September 6–9, 2024 | 521 (LV) | – | 49% | 44% | – | 1% | 1% | 5% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[31] | August 20–22, 2024 | 956 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 51% | 40% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[32] | August 12–15, 2024 | 592 (LV) | – | 47% | 41% | 6% | – | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[33] | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 493 (LV) | – | 44% | 37% | 8% | – | 0% | 0% | 11% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc.[34][C] | October 10–18, 2024 | 1,024 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 50% | 41% | 3% | 6% |
| Research & Polling Inc.[35][C] | September 6–13, 2024 | 532 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 39% | 3% | 9% |
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1892 Polling (R)[36][D] | June 19–24, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 47% | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[37][E] | June 13–14, 2024 | 555 (V) | ± 4.2% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
| John Zogby Strategies[38][F] | April 13–21, 2024 | 505 (LV) | – | 49% | 42% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[39][E] | August 23–24, 2023 | 767 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[40] | May 6–8, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 49% | 38% | 13% |
| Emerson College[41] | October 25–28, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 38% | 14% |
| Emerson College[42] | September 8–11, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 41% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver vs. Randall Terry
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Randall Terry Constitution |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1892 Polling (R)[36][D] | June 19–24, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 42% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 3% |
Hypothetical polling with other candidates
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[38][F] | April 13–21, 2024 | 505 (LV) | – | 41% | 46% | 13% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[38][F] | April 13–21, 2024 | 505 (LV) | – | 46% | 36% | 18% |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[39] | August 23–24, 2023 | 767 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[40] | May 6–8, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 45% | 43% | 12% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 474,392 | 51.8% |  2.49%
| ||
| Republican | 421,065 | 45.9% |  2.4%
| ||
| Independent |
|
9,497 | 1.0% | N/A | |
| Green | 4,562 | 0.5% | 
| ||
| Free New Mexico/National Libertarian | 3,721 | 0.4% | 0.96%
| ||
| Socialism and Liberation | 2,414 | 0.3% | 0.12%
| ||
| Libertarian |
|
854 | 0.1% | N/A | |
| Write-in | |||||
| Total votes | 916,505 | 100.00% | |||
By congressional district
[edit]Harris won 2 of 3 congressional districts with Trump winning the remaining one, which elected a Democrat.[45]
| District | Harris | Trump | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 56% | 43% | Melanie Stansbury |
| 2nd | 48% | 50% | Gabe Vasquez |
| 3rd | 52% | 47% | Teresa Leger Fernandez |
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in New Mexico
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ a b c d e f g h i Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "Other" with 5.7%
- ^ "Other" with 3%
- ^ "Other" with 4%
- ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ a b The Free New Mexico Party is the state affiliate of the national Libertarian Party, which nominated Oliver and ter Maat. The Libertarian Party of New Mexico, which separated from the national party in 2022 and is now affiliated to Liberal Party USA, nominated Ebke and Butler.
Partisan clients
- ^ Poll sponsored by KOB-TV
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by American Thinker
- ^ a b Poll conducted for the Albuquerque Journal
- ^ a b Poll commissioned by the National Republican Senatorial Committee
- ^ a b Poll commissioned by the New Mexico Political Report
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
References
[edit]- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ Plummer, Kate (July 3, 2024). "Joe Biden's Lead Wiped Out in Critical Battleground States". Newsweek. Retrieved September 29, 2024.
- ^ https://www.cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi/2022-partisan-voting-index/district-map-and-list
- ^ Heild, Colleen (July 21, 2024). "New Mexico political battleground shifts with Biden exit". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved September 29, 2024.
- ^ "2024 New Mexico: Multi-Candidate". RealClearPolling. Retrieved September 29, 2024.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
- ^ "New Mexico Democratic Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved June 4, 2024.
- ^ "New Mexico Republican Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved July 12, 2024.
- ^ "Become Ungovernable". 2024 Libertarian National Convention. Retrieved June 22, 2024.
- ^ "Unofficial Results 2024 Primary June 4, 2024". New Mexico Secretary of State. Retrieved June 22, 2024.
- ^ "The Green Papers: 2024 Presidential Candidate Ballot Access by State". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved September 13, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved November 1, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Election Polls". YouGov.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forcast". Split Ticket. June 2, 2023.
- ^ "HARRIS LEADS TRUMP BY 4.8% IN FINAL NEW MEXICO POLL OF 2024" (PDF). Victory Insights. November 4, 2024. Retrieved November 5, 2024.
- ^ "Democrat Kamala Harris 6 Points Atop Republican Donald Trump in New Mexico As Former President Campaigns in Albuquerque". SurveyUSA. October 31, 2024. Retrieved November 1, 2024.
- ^ "Election 2024: Trump Leads in Georgia, Arizona; Harris +5 in New Mexico". Rasmussen Reports. October 31, 2024.
- ^ "Election 2024: Trump +1 in Nevada; Harris +3 in Minnesota, +6 in New Mexico". Rasmussen Reports. September 27, 2024.
- ^ "Kamala Harris 8 Points Atop Donald Trump in Land of Enchantment, Poised To Keep New Mexico Blue For 5th Consecutive Presidential Election". SurveyUSA. September 19, 2024. Retrieved September 24, 2024.
- ^ "New Mexico 2024: Harris 52%, Trump 42%". Emerson College Polling. August 23, 2024.
- ^ "Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (12 – 14 October 2024)". Redfield & Wilton Strategies. October 16, 2024.
- ^ "Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (6 – 9 September 2024)". Redfield & Wilton Strategies. September 10, 2024.
- ^ "New Mexico 2024: Harris 52%, Trump 42%". Emerson College Polling. August 23, 2024.
- ^ "Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (12 – 15 August 2024)". Redfield & Wilton Strategies. August 19, 2024.
- ^ "Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (31 July – 3 August 2024)". Redfield & Wilton Strategies. August 6, 2024.
- ^ Boyd, Dan (October 21, 2024). "Journal Poll: Kamala Harris maintains advantage over Donald Trump in New Mexico". The Albuquerque Journal.
- ^ Boyd, Dan (September 15, 2024). "Journal Poll: Kamala Harris comfortably ahead of Donald Trump in New Mexico". The Albuquerque Journal.
- ^ a b "Hotline - Wake-Up Call!". National Journal. July 1, 2024.
- ^ Reichbach, Matthew (June 18, 2024). "Post-primary, Biden leads Trump in NM". New Mexico Political Report.
- ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
- ^ a b Reichbach, Matthew (August 28, 2023). "Biden leads in NM in potential 2024 matchups". New Mexico Political Report.
- ^ a b "DeSantis is tied with Biden in Virginia and within striking distance of the President in three other '24 "reach" states. Trump is poised to lose these four states for a third time". X. May 12, 2023.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (October 31, 2022). "New Mexico 2022: Lujan Grisham and Ronchetti in Dead Heat for Gubernatorial Election". Emerson Polling.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (September 14, 2022). "New Mexico 2022: Democratic Governor Lujan Grisham Holds Five-Point Lead Over Ronchetti in Gubernatorial Election". Emerson Polling.
- ^ "The Green Papers: 2024 Presidential Candidate Ballot Access by State". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved September 13, 2024.
- ^ "Ballot-Qualified Libertarian Party of New Mexico Nominates Laura Ebke for President". ballot-access.org. August 31, 2024. Retrieved September 24, 2024.
- ^ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZHx5E0-5vuXxcZShBgsAl_vwAntkkanGqYQp0owNjoQ/edit?gid=0#gid=0
