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2024 United States presidential election in New Jersey

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Main article: 2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in New Jersey
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Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
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Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance
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Joe Biden
Democratic



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The 2024 United States presidential election in New Jersey is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. New Jersey voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Jersey has 14 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]

As a densely-populated state in the Northeast, New Jersey has backed the Democratic candidate in every presidential election starting in 1992, doing so consistently by double digits starting in 2008. In 2020, the state broke 57%–41% for Democrat Joe Biden of neighboring Delaware. However, early polling showed a tighter race in 2024 compared to previous election cycles. Nonetheless, the state is still heavily favored to be carried by the Democrats by forecasters.

Attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. claimed he had gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot in May 2024,[2] although he later dropped out of the race nationally on August 23.[3][4]

Primary elections

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Democratic primary

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Main article: 2024 New Jersey Democratic presidential primary

The New Jersey Democratic primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

New Jersey Democratic primary, June 4, 2024[5]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 458,281 88.2% 124
Uncommitted 46,988 9.1% 2
Terrisa Bukovinac 14,179 2.7%
Write-in votes 1,269 0.2%
Total: 520,717 100.0% 126 20 146

Republican primary

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Main article: 2024 New Jersey Republican presidential primary

The New Jersey Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

New Jersey Republican primary, June 4, 2024[6]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 294,658 96.7% 12 12
Write-in votes 9,915 3.3%
Total: 304,573 100.00% 12 0 12

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[7] Solid D December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[8] Solid D April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] Safe D June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[10] Safe D August 26, 2024
CNalysis[11] Solid D December 30, 2023
CNN[12] Solid D January 14, 2024
The Economist[13] Likely D August 23, 2024
538[14] Likely D June 11, 2024
RCP[15] Likely D June 26, 2024

Polling

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Hypothetical polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
United 2024 (R)[16] July 1–2, 2024 477 (RV) ± 4.5% 41% 43% 16%
co/efficient (R)[17] June 26–27, 2024 810 (LV) ± 3.4% 40% 41% 20%[b]
Emerson College[18] March 26–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 39% 15%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
United 2024 (R)[16] July 1–2, 2024 477 (RV) ± 4.5% 43% 43% 8% — 3% 3%
Emerson College[18] March 26–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 36% 8% 1% 1% 13%

Results

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2024 United States presidential election in New Jersey[19]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Kamala Harris
Tim Walz
Republican Donald Trump
JD Vance
Socialism and Liberation Claudia de la Cruz
Karina Garcia
Socialist Workers Rachele Fruit
Margaret Trowe
Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr.[c]
Nicole Shanahan
Socialist Equality Joseph Kishore
Jerome White
Libertarian Chase Oliver
Mike ter Maat
Green Jill Stein
Rudolph "Butch" Ware[d]
Constitution Randall Terry
Stephen Broden
Total votes

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ a b Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Kennedy or other third-party candidate with 7%; Undecided with 13%
  3. ^ Withdrawn, will remain on ballot[20]
  4. ^ Replaced Samson Kpadenou on ballot as Stein's running mate.[21]

Partisan clients

References

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  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
  2. ^ "Kennedy Collects Signatures Needed to Gain Ballot Access in New Jersey". Kennedy 2024. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
  3. ^ "RFK Jr. endorses Trump after weeks of back-channel courtship". NBC News. August 23, 2024. Retrieved August 26, 2024.
  4. ^ Dovere, Aaron Pellish, Edward-Isaac (August 23, 2024). "RFK Jr. suspends presidential campaign | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved August 26, 2024.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  5. ^ "New Jersey Presidential Election Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved June 4, 2024.
  6. ^ "New Jersey Presidential Election Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved June 4, 2024.
  7. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  8. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  9. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  10. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved August 26, 2024.
  11. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  12. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  13. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved July 19, 2024.
  14. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
  15. ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  16. ^ a b Wildstein, David (July 3, 2024). "GOP super PAC poll in N.J. shows Biden vs. Trump, Kim vs. Bashaw statistically tied". New Jersey Globe.
  17. ^ "co/efficient (R)".
  18. ^ a b Mumford, Camille (April 2, 2024). "New Jersey 2024 Poll: Majority of Democrats Support Kim for U.S. Senate Nomination". Emerson Polling.
  19. ^ Secretary of State of New Jersey (August 30, 2024). "Official List Candidates for President For GENERAL ELECTION 11/05/2024 Election" (PDF). nj.gov. Retrieved September 2, 2024.
  20. ^ Wildstein, David (September 6, 2024). "Kennedy tried to get off N.J. ballot, but deadline tied officials hands". New Jersey Globe. Retrieved September 6, 2024.
  21. ^ Ballotpedia. "Samson LeBeau Kpadenou". Retrieved September 2, 2024.
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