2024 United States presidential election in Rhode Island

2024 United States presidential election in Rhode Island
Reporting	99%as of 8:39 AM EDT
Harris 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%	Trump 40–50% 50–60% 60–70%
President before election; Joe Biden; Democratic	Elected President ; Donald Trump; Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in Rhode Island was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Rhode Island voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Rhode Island has four electoral votes in the Electoral College.

A New England state, Rhode Island has not voted for a Republican candidate since 1984, when Ronald Reagan won in a 49-state landslide. It is a deeply blue state, being one of three states (along with Hawaii and Massachusetts) in 2020 to have every county vote for Democrat Joe Biden.

Although Harris won the state comfortably, including every county, this was the closest election in Rhode Island since 1988. This also marked the fist time that Woonsocket voted for a Republican candidate since 1984.

Primary elections

Republican primary

The Rhode Island Republican primary was held on April 2, 2024, alongside primaries in Connecticut, New York, and Wisconsin.

Rhode Island Republican primary, April 2, 2024^[1]
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	10,898	84.5%	17		17
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)	1,371	10.6%	2		2
Uncommitted	257	2.0%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)	178	1.4%
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	154	1.2%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)	40	0.3%
Total:	12,898	100.0%	19		19

Democratic primary

The Rhode Island Democratic primary was held on April 2, 2024, alongside primaries in Connecticut, New York, and Wisconsin.

Rhode Island Democratic primary, April 2, 2024^[2]
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	21,336	80.7%	25		25
Uncommitted	3,834	14.5%	1		1
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)	660	2.5%
Write-in votes	593	2.2%
Total:	26,423	100.0%	26	8	34

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report^[3]	Solid D	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections^[4]	Solid D	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[5]	Safe D	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill^[6]	Safe D	December 14, 2023
CNalysis^[7]	Solid D	December 30, 2023
CNN^[8]	Solid D	January 14, 2024
The Economist^[9]	Safe D	August 20, 2024
538^[10]	Solid D	August 23, 2024
RCP^[11]	Solid D	June 26, 2024
NBC News^[12]	Safe D	October 6, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
MassINC Polling Group^[13]^[A]	September 12–18, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.9%	56%	43%	1%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
University of New Hampshire^[14]	September 12–16, 2024	683 (LV)	± 3.7%	58%	38%	–	2%	0%	2%^[b]

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
MassINC Polling Group^[13]^[A]	September 12–18, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.9%	53%	40%	2%	0%	1%	–	4%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
University of Rhode Island/YouGov^[15]	August 15 – September 8, 2024	500 (A)	± 6.0%	53%	27%	9%	11%^[c]

Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
University of New Hampshire^[16]	May 16–20, 2024	538 (LV)	± 4.2%	60%	40%	–
John Zogby Strategies^[17]^[B]	April 13–21, 2024	398 (LV)	–	48%	43%	9%
Fleming & Associates^[18]^[C]	September 29 – October 2, 2022	402 (LV)	± 4.9%	49%	32%	19%
Echelon Insights^[19]^[D]	August 31 – September 7, 2022	373 (LV)	± 6.1%	51%	37%	12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
University of New Hampshire^[16]	May 16–20, 2024	538 (LV)	± 4.2%	52%	33%	6%	1%	0%	8%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
Embold Research^[20]^[E]	June 5–14, 2024	1,450 (LV)	± 2.8%	40%	33%	12%	15%

Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies^[17]^[B]	April 13–21, 2024	398 (LV)	–	40%	48%	12%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies^[17]^[B]	April 13–21, 2024	398 (LV)	–	46%	40%	14%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Other / Undecided
Echelon Insights^[19]^[D]	August 31 – September 7, 2022	373 (LV)	± 6.1%	47%	36%	17%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Rhode Island^[21]^{[self-published source]}
Party		Candidate
	Democratic	Kamala Harris Tim Walz
	Republican	Donald Trump JD Vance
	Libertarian	Chase Oliver Mike ter Maat
	Green	Jill Stein Butch Ware
	Party	Robby Wells Tony Jones
	Socialism and Liberation	Claudia de la Cruz Karina Garcia
	Independent	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (withdrawn) Nicole Shanahan (withdrawn)
	Write-in
Total votes

Notes

^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ ^j Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
^ "Another candidate" with 1%; "Don't know/Not sure" with 1%
^ "Another candidate" with 1%

Partisan clients

^ ^a ^b Poll sponsored by Rhode Island Current
^ ^a ^b ^c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
^ Poll sponsored by WPRI-TV & Roger Williams University
^ ^a ^b Poll sponsored by NetChoice
^ Poll sponsored by Salve Regina University

References

^ "Rhode Island Presidential Primary". The AP. April 16, 2024. Retrieved April 18, 2024.
^ "Rhode Island Presidential Primary". The AP. April 16, 2024. Retrieved April 18, 2024.
^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved August 29, 2024.
^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 23, 2024.
^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
^ ^a ^b Lavin, Nancy (September 23, 2024). "Harris has 12% lead over Trump among R.I. voters in new poll". Rhode Island Current.
^ McKinley, Sean; Smith, Andrew; Azem, Zachary; Keirns, Tracy (September 18, 2024). "Harris Seen as Debate Victor, Holds Comfortable Lead Over Trump in Rhode Island". University of New Hampshire. Retrieved September 19, 2024.
^ "The Rhode Island Survey Initiative, 2024" (PDF). University of Rhode Island. October 15, 2024.
^ ^a ^b McKinley, Sean; Smith, Andrew; Azem, Zachary; Keirns, Tracy (May 23, 2024). "Biden Comfortably Leads Trump in Rhode Island Despite Low Job Approval". University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository.
^ ^a ^b ^c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
^ Nesi, Ted; White, Tim (October 6, 2022). "12 News/RWU Poll: Fung leads Magaziner in race for Congress". WPRI.
^ ^a ^b Chavez, Krista (September 13, 2022). "New National Poll: 89% of Americans Say Congress Should Focus on Addressing Inflation, Not Breaking Up Tech". NetChoice.
^ Nesi, Ted (June 25, 2024). "Poll: Biden holds single-digit lead in RI; McKee job approval slumps to 36%". WPRI.
^ "The Green Papers: 2024 Presidential Candidate Ballot Access by State". The Green Papers. Retrieved September 24, 2024.

[key-13] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ ^j Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[17] "Another candidate" with 1%; "Don't know/Not sure" with 1%

[19] "Another candidate" with 1%

[RIC-15] Poll sponsored by Rhode Island Current

[Kennedy-22] Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

[24] Poll sponsored by WPRI-TV & Roger Williams University

[NC-26] Poll sponsored by NetChoice

[Salve-28] Poll sponsored by Salve Regina University

[1] "Rhode Island Presidential Primary". The AP. April 16, 2024. Retrieved April 18, 2024.

[2] "Rhode Island Presidential Primary". The AP. April 16, 2024. Retrieved April 18, 2024.

[3] "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[4] "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[5] "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[6] "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[7] "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[8] "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.

[9] "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved August 29, 2024.

[10] Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 23, 2024.

[11] "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.

[12] "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.

[MassINCSept12-18-14] Lavin, Nancy (September 23, 2024). "Harris has 12% lead over Trump among R.I. voters in new poll". Rhode Island Current.

[16] McKinley, Sean; Smith, Andrew; Azem, Zachary; Keirns, Tracy (September 18, 2024). "Harris Seen as Debate Victor, Holds Comfortable Lead Over Trump in Rhode Island". University of New Hampshire. Retrieved September 19, 2024.

[18] "The Rhode Island Survey Initiative, 2024" (PDF). University of Rhode Island. October 15, 2024.

[RI-auto1-20] McKinley, Sean; Smith, Andrew; Azem, Zachary; Keirns, Tracy (May 23, 2024). "Biden Comfortably Leads Trump in Rhode Island Despite Low Job Approval". University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository.

[Kennedy24-21] "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.

[23] Nesi, Ted; White, Tim (October 6, 2022). "12 News/RWU Poll: Fung leads Magaziner in race for Congress". WPRI.

[RI-auto-25] Chavez, Krista (September 13, 2022). "New National Poll: 89% of Americans Say Congress Should Focus on Addressing Inflation, Not Breaking Up Tech". NetChoice.

[27] Nesi, Ted (June 25, 2024). "Poll: Biden holds single-digit lead in RI; McKee job approval slumps to 36%". WPRI.

[u167-29] "The Green Papers: 2024 Presidential Candidate Ballot Access by State". The Green Papers. Retrieved September 24, 2024.

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