2024 United States presidential election in Hawaii
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Harris 50–60% 60–70%
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Elections in Hawaii |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Hawaii is currently taking place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Hawaii voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Hawaii has 4 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden was running for reelection to a second term, and became the party's presumptive nominee, but withdrew from the race on July 21.[2][3] He then endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[4] The Republican nominee is former president Donald Trump.[5] Attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, as he announced in late February.[6] Additionally, former Democratic U.S. Representative from Hawaii, and current Republican, Tulsi Gabbard, has endorsed former U.S. President Donald Trump. [7]
Hawaii is a Pacific island state with its own unique culture separated from the mainland, and is majority Asian American. Although Hawaii has been somewhat drifting away from the Democratic Party since 2008, Hawaii has only voted Republican in two presidential elections since gaining statehood (the 49-state landslides of Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan).
Although Harris won the state comfortably, the Republican candidate received more than 35% of the vote for the first time since 2004. It was also the first time since that election in which the Democratic candidate failed to achieve 60% of the vote in all of Hawaii's counties.
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic caucuses
[edit]The Hawaii Democratic caucuses were held on March 6, 2024.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
Joe Biden (incumbent) | 1,032 | 66.0% | 15 | 15 | |
Uncommitted | 455 | 29.1% | 7 | 7 | |
Marianne Williamson | 50 | 3.2% | 0 | ||
Dean Phillips | 15 | 1.0% | 0 | ||
Jason Palmer | 6 | 0.4% | 0 | ||
Armando Perez-Serrato | 5 | 0.3% | 0 | ||
Total: | 1,563 | 100.00% | 22 | 9 | 31 |
Republican caucuses
[edit]The Hawaii Republican caucuses was held on March 12, 2024, alongside primaries in Idaho, Mississippi, Missouri, and Washington.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
Donald Trump | 4,348 | 97.08% | 19 | 0 | 19 |
Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 68 | 1.52% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 26 | 0.58% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 25 | 0.56% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 8 | 0.18% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 2 | 0.04% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Doug Burgum (withdrawn) | 1 | 0.02% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
David Stuckenberg | 1 | 0.02% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total: | 4,479 | 100.00% | 19 | 0 | 19 |
General election
[edit]The Democratic Party of Hawaii attempted to disqualify the "ballot access petition" for Kennedy's newly created party, the We the People Party, on the November ballot, though the state Democratic Party was unsuccessful.[10]
Predictions
[edit]Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[11] | Solid D | December 19, 2023 |
Inside Elections[12] | Solid D | April 26, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] | Safe D | June 29, 2023 |
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[14] | Safe D | December 14, 2023 |
CNalysis[15] | Solid D | December 30, 2023 |
CNN[16] | Solid D | January 14, 2024 |
The Economist[17] | Safe D | June 12, 2024 |
538[18] | Solid D | June 11, 2024 |
RCP[19] | Solid D | June 26, 2024 |
NBC News[20] | Safe D | October 6, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Bullfinch Group[21][A] | April 16–23, 2024 | 250 (RV) | ± 6.2% | 57% | 38% | 5% |
John Zogby Strategies[22][B] | April 13–21, 2024 | 301 (LV) | – | 55% | 34% | 11% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Bullfinch Group[21][A] | April 16–23, 2024 | 250 (RV) | ± 6.2% | 42% | 34% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 13% |
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Zogby Strategies[22][B] | April 13–21, 2024 | 301 (LV) | – | 42% | 48% | 10% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Zogby Strategies[22][B] | April 13–21, 2024 | 301 (LV) | – | 50% | 27% | 23% |
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
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Democratic | |||||
Republican | |||||
Libertarian | |||||
Green | |||||
American Solidarity |
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Socialism and Liberation |
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Write-in | |||||
Total votes |
By congressional district
[edit]Harris won both congressional districts.[24]
District | Harris | Trump | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 62% | 37% | Ed Case |
2nd | 60% | 38% | Jill Tokuda |
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Hawaii
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]Partisan clients
References
[edit]- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- ^ Levine, Sam; Gambino, Lauren (July 22, 2024). "Joe Biden withdraws from presidential race after weeks of pressure to quit". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
- ^ "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
- ^ Gold, Michael; Nehamas, Nicholas (March 13, 2024). "Donald Trump and Joe Biden Clinch Their Party Nominations". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on March 13, 2024. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
- ^ Pellish, Aaron (February 27, 2024). "Super PAC supporting RFK Jr. says it has gathered enough signatures to put him on ballot in Arizona, Georgia | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
- ^ Spady, Aubrie (August 26, 2024). "Former Democrat Tulsi Gabbard endorses Trump in the 2024 presidential race". Fox News. Retrieved August 29, 2024.
- ^ "Hawaii Democratic Caucus Results". The New York Times. March 7, 2024. Retrieved March 7, 2024.
- ^ "Hawaii Presidential Caucuses". The AP. Retrieved March 11, 2024.
- ^ Pellish, Aaron (April 20, 2024). "RFK Jr. will appear on Hawaii ballot, third state to include him". CNN. Retrieved May 15, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
- ^ a b "Independent Center 2024 Pacific State Survey Toplines" (PDF). The Independent Center. April 23, 2024. Archived from the original (PDF) on May 10, 2024.
- ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Candidate Election Status". Office of Elections. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
- ^ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZHx5E0-5vuXxcZShBgsAl_vwAntkkanGqYQp0owNjoQ/edit?gid=0#gid=0