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2024 United States presidential election in Tennessee

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Main article: 2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in Tennessee
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 1,964,499 1,055,039
Percentage 64.09% 34.42%
County Results
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

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The 2024 United States presidential election in Tennessee took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Tennessee voters have chosen electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Tennessee has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]

A Southern state in the heart of the Bible Belt, no Democrat has won Tennessee's electoral votes since Bill Clinton of neighboring Arkansas, who shared the ticket with favorite son Al Gore, in 1996, nor has it been contested at the presidential level since 2000, when Gore narrowly lost his home state by less than 4 points.

Incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden initially ran for re-election and became the party's presumptive nominee.[2] However, following what was widely viewed as a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and amid increasing age and health concerns from within his party, he withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[3] Biden's withdrawal from the race makes him the first eligible president not to stand for re-election since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968.

Former Republican President Donald J. Trump is running for re-election to a second non-consecutive term after losing in 2020.[4] Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gathered the required signatures to be on the ballot.[5] Despite that, he dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump.

Tennessee like its neighboring twin sister state of Kentucky, voted for Trump by a wide margin in the election.[6] This is the best performance from a Republican candidate in the state since 1972.

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article: 2024 Tennessee Democratic presidential primary

The Tennessee Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. President Biden won the state in a landslide, earning all 63 pledged delegates

Final results by county
Popular vote share by county
  Biden
  •   80–90%
      >90%
Tennessee Democratic primary, March 5, 2024[7][8]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 122,803 92.14% 63 63
Uncommitted 10,475 7.86% 0 0
Total: 133,278 100.00% 63 7 70

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article: 2024 Tennessee Republican presidential primary

The Tennessee Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald J. Trump was challenged by Nikki Haley, the only other major candidate remaining in the Republican primaries. Trump won the state in a landslide, defeating Haley by 57.8 points and earning all 58 delegates.

Final results by county
Popular vote share by county
  Trump
  •   60–70%
      70–80%
      80–90%
      >90%
Tennessee Republican primary, March 5, 2024[9][10]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 446,850 77.33% 58 0 58
Nikki Haley 112,958 19.55% 0 0 0
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 7,947 1.38% 0 0 0
Uncommitted 4,884 0.85% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 1,874 0.32% 0 0 0
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 1,714 0.30% 0 0 0
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) 722 0.13% 0 0 0
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) 533 0.09% 0 0 0
David Stuckenberg 352 0.06% 0 0 0
Total: 577,834 100.00% 58 0 58

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[11] Solid R December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[12] Solid R April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] Safe R June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[14] Safe R December 14, 2023
CNalysis[15] Solid R December 30, 2023
CNN[16] Solid R January 14, 2024
The Economist[17] Safe R June 12, 2024
538[6] Solid R June 11, 2024
RCP[18] Solid R June 26, 2024
NBC News[19] Safe R October 6, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
ActiVote[20] October 5−28, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 62% 38% –
ActiVote[21] September 24 – October 16, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 62% 38% –
ActiVote[22] July 26 – August 29, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 63% 37% –

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
Targoz Market Research[23][A] September 27 – October 8, 2024 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 54% 35% 5% – 1% 1% 4%
971 (LV) 56% 35% 5% – 0% 1% 3%
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald J. Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[24][B] April 13–21, 2024 510 (LV) – 59% 35% 6%
Targoz Market Research[25][A] March 15 – April 2, 2024 1,139 (RV) ± 2.8% 60% 31% 9%
974 (LV) 55% 31% 14%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[26] February 29 – March 3, 2024 216 (RV) – 58% 34% 8%[b]
201 (LV) 59% 34% 7%[b]
Targoz Market Research[27][A] December 14–28, 2023 1,139 (RV) ± 2.7% 61% 30% 9%
929 (LV) 63% 31% 5%
Siena College[28][C] November 5–10, 2023 805 (A) ± 3.8% 49% 20% 31%
Targoz Market Research[29][A] October 5–16, 2023 1,075 (RV) ± 2.8% 59% 29% 12%
835 (LV) 61% 30% 9%
Emerson College[30] October 1–4, 2023 410 (RV) ± 4.8% 55% 22% 23%
Targoz Market Research[31][A] June 14–22, 2023 1,120 (RV) ± 2.9% 51% 32% 17%
1,046 (LV) 54% 34% 11%
SSRS/Vanderbilt University[32] April 19–23, 2023 502 (RV) – 42% 26% 31%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Targoz Market Research[33][A] June 20 – July 1, 2024 1,152 (RV) ± 2.8% 55% 28% 7% 10%
962 (LV) 58% 28% 5% 9%
SSRS/Vanderbilt University[34] April 26 – May 9, 2024 1,003 (RV) ± 3.4% 47% 29% 8% 16%[c]
Targoz Market Research[25][A] March 15 – April 2, 2024 1,139 (RV) ± 2.8% 48% 25% 16% 11%
974 (LV) 47% 28% 15% 10%
Targoz Market Research[27][A] December 14–28, 2023 1,187 (RV) ± 2.7% 48% 23% 17% 12%
929 (LV) 51% 25% 16% 8%
SSRS/Vanderbilt University[35] November 14 – December 2, 2023 1,005 (RV) ± 3.4% 45% 26% 12% 17%
Targoz Market Research[29][A] October 5–16, 2023 1,164 (RV) ± 2.8% 46% 18% 22% 14%
872 (LV) 48% 23% 19% 10%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Joe Manchin as an Independent

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Joe
Manchin
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Targoz Market Research[29][A] October 5–16, 2023 1,118 (RV) ± 2.8% 52% 21% 5% 22%
844 (LV) 53% 23% 6% 18%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[24][B] April 13–21, 2024 510 (LV) – 52% 35% 13%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[24][B] April 13–21, 2024 510 (LV) – 55% 31% 14%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Targoz Market Research[31][A] June 14–22, 2023 1,120 (RV) ± 2.9% 46% 32% 22%
977 (LV) 52% 36% 11%
SSRS/Vanderbilt University[32] April 19–23, 2023 502 (RV) – 33% 24% 40%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in Tennessee[36]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican
1,964,499 64.09%
Democratic
1,055,039 34.42%
Independent
21,511 0.70%
Green
8,953 0.29%
Independent
  • Jay Bowman
  • De Bowman
 5,855 0.19%
Socialism and Liberation
3,451 0.11%
Socialist Workers
985 0.03%
Write-in 4,692 0.15%
Total votes 3,064,985 100.00%
2024 Knoxville Ballot


See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ a b "Another candidate" with 4%
  3. ^ "Some other candidate" with 8%
  4. ^ a b c Listed on the ballot without party affiliation.
  5. ^ Replacement for Butch Ware, Stein's vice presidential nominee.

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Poll sponsored by the Beacon Center of Tennessee
  2. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by The Tennessean

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
  2. ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC. Archived from the original on April 25, 2023. Retrieved April 25, 2023.
  3. ^ "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 21, 2024.
  4. ^ Orr, Gabby (November 16, 2022). "Former President Donald Trump announces a White House bid for 2024". CNN.com. Retrieved October 8, 2023.
  5. ^ McCall, J. Holly. "Independent presidential candidate Robert Kennedy, Jr. submits Tennessee ballot petitions • Tennessee Lookout". Retrieved July 18, 2024.
  6. ^ a b Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
  7. ^ "March 5, 2024 Democratic Presidential Preference Primary" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  8. ^ "Tennessee Democratic Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
  9. ^ "March 5, 2024 Republican Presidential Preference Primary" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  10. ^ "Tennessee Republican Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
  11. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  12. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  13. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  14. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  15. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  16. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  17. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  18. ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  19. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  20. ^ Allis, Victor (October 29, 2024). "Trump Stays Far ahead in Tennessee". ActiVote.
  21. ^ Allis, Victor (October 17, 2024). "Trump again far ahead in Tennessee". ActiVote.
  22. ^ Allis, Victor (August 30, 2024). "Trump far ahead in Tennessee". ActiVote. Retrieved August 31, 2024.
  23. ^ "Beacon Poll: October 2024 Results". Beacon Center of Tennessee. October 15, 2024.
  24. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  25. ^ a b "Beacon Poll of Tennessee March 15 to April 2, 2024" (PDF). Beacon Center of Tennessee. April 3, 2024.
  26. ^ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Super Tuesday States" (PDF). FAU Polling. March 4, 2024.
  27. ^ a b "Beacon Poll of Tennessee Dec. 14 to 28, 2023" (PDF). Beacon Center of Tennessee. January 3, 2024.
  28. ^ Jones, Vivian (December 17, 2023). "Tennesseans back Trump but a nearly third of GOP says party on the wrong track, poll shows". The Tennessean. Archived from the original on September 28, 2024.
  29. ^ a b c "Beacon Poll of Tennessee Oct. 5 to 16, 2023" (PDF). Beacon Center of Tennessee. October 22, 2023.
  30. ^ Mumford, Camille (October 17, 2023). "Tennessee 2024 Poll: Republican Senator Blackburn Leads Democrat Gloria Johnson in Potential Matchup". Emerson Polling.
  31. ^ a b "Beacon Poll of Tennessee June 14 to 22, 2023" (PDF). Beacon Center of Tennessee. July 4, 2023.
  32. ^ a b "Vanderbilt University Tennessee Poll – Spring 2023" (PDF). Vanderbilt University. April 26, 2023.
  33. ^ "Beacon Poll of Tennessee June 20 to July 1, 2024" (PDF). Beacon Center of Tennessee. July 6, 2024.
  34. ^ Clinton, John G.; Geer, Joshua D. (May 22, 2024). "Spring 2024 - Vanderbilt Statewide Poll" (PDF). Vanderbilt University.
  35. ^ "Vanderbilt University Tennessee Poll – Fall 2023" (PDF). Vanderbilt University. December 8, 2023.
  36. ^ "Candidate Lists". Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
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