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2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania

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For related races, see 2024 United States presidential election.
2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Projected electoral vote 19 0
Popular vote 3,541,213 3,419,378
Percentage 50.38% 48.65%
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

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The 2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Pennsylvania voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.[1]

A Northeastern swing state within the Rust Belt, Pennsylvania was seen as a pure toss-up this cycle. In 2016, Republican Donald Trump narrowly carried the state by 0.7% in his upset sweep of the Rust Belt and the first Republican presidential victory in Pennsylvania since 1988, but four years later lost the state to Democratic nominee Joe Biden by 1.2% as the latter defeated the former nationwide.

Pennsylvania was seen to hold the largest electoral prize of all the swing states in 2024. As such, it was generally believed that the winner of the state was highly likely to win the entire election. According to statistician Nate Silver, the state's winner was estimated to have a 90% chance of winning the presidency.[2] Major news organizations marked it as a tossup in the lead-up to the election.[3]

Trump won Pennsylvania with 50.4% of the vote to Kamala Harris's 48.7%, defeating her by a margin of roughly 1.7% and flipping the state. This was the largest margin of victory for a Republican candidate since 1988, as well as the first time since that election that a Republican won a majority in the state. Trump's victory is seen to have contributed to down-ballot victories for Republicans who won the races for the US Senate, Attorney General, Treasurer and Auditor. Trump also received more than 3.5 million votes which was a record for votes cast for any candidate in the history of the state.

Trump flipped Bucks and Monroe counties into the Republican column for the first time since 1988 and 2004, respectively. He also reclaimed Erie and Northampton counties which he lost in 2020, after having previously won them in 2016. Trump’s victory made him the first Republican candidate to carry Pennsylvania twice since Ronald Reagan did so in 1980 and 1984. As of 2024, Pennsylvania has together with Michigan and Wisconsin, the longest-running active streak among states of voting for the winning presidential candidate, having done so in the latest five presidential elections.

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article: 2024 Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary
Pennsylvania Democratic primary, April 23, 2024[4]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 926,633 88.2% 159 159
Dean Phillips (withdrawn) 68,310 6.5%
Write-in votes 55,611 5.3%
Total: 1,050,554 100.0% 159 27 186

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article: 2024 Pennsylvania Republican presidential primary
Pennsylvania Republican primary, April 23, 2024[5]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 790,690 82.8% 16 46 62
Nikki Haley (withdrawn) 157,228 16.5%
Write-in votes 10,387 1.2%
Unprojected delegates: 5 5
Total: 958,305 100.0% 16 51 67

General election

[edit]

Voting law changes

[edit]

In 2022, no-excuse mail-in voting was upheld by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court.[6] Automatic voter registration was enacted in 2023, helping to register citizens when getting a driver's license.[7]

Trump assassination attempt

[edit]
Main article: Attempted assassination of Donald Trump in Pennsylvania

On July 13, 2024, Trump was shot and wounded in an assassination attempt while holding a campaign rally west of Butler, Pennsylvania. The former president was struck in the right ear while on stage and was surrounded by Secret Service agents until the shooter was killed by members of the Counter Assault Team. One rally-goer died and two others were critically injured.[8]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[9] Tossup November 4, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] Lean D November 4, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[11] Tossup November 4, 2024
CNN[12] Tossup November 4, 2024
CNalysis[13] Lean D November 4, 2024
The Economist[14] Tossup November 4, 2024
538[15] Tossup November 4, 2024
Inside Elections[16] Tossup November 4, 2024
NBC News[17] Tossup November 4, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
[a] 		Margin
270ToWin October 23 – November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 48.2% 48.2% 3.6% Tie
538 through November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 47.9% 47.7% 4.4% Harris +0.2%
Silver Bulletin through November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 48.0% 48.1% 3.9% Trump +0.1%
Real Clear Politics through November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 48.5% 48.9% 2.6% Trump +0.4%
The Hill/DDHQ through November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 48.0% 48.8% 3.2% Trump +0.8%
Average 48.12% 48.34% 3.8% Trump +0.22%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
AtlasIntel[18] November 3–4, 2024 1,840 (LV) ± 2.0% 49% 50% 1%
Research Co.[19] November 2–3, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 48% 47% 5%
Trafalgar Group (R)[20] November 1–3, 2024 1,089 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 48% 5%[c]
Patriot Polling[21] November 1–3, 2024 903 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 50% 1%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[22] November 1–2, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 49% 3%[d]
AtlasIntel[23] November 1–2, 2024 2,049 (LV) ± 2.0% 48% 50% 2%
Emerson College[24] October 30 – November 2, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 49% 3%[e]
49%[f] 50% 1%[e]
New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer[25] October 29 – November 2, 2024 1,527 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 47% 5%
1,527 (LV) 48% 48% 4%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[26] October 25 – November 2, 2024 798 (RV) ± 3.1% 48% 46% 6%[g]
699 (LV) 49% 47% 4%[h]
ActiVote[27] October 10 – November 2, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 50.5% 49.5% –
SoCal Strategies (R)[28][A] October 30–31, 2024 850 (LV) ± 3.6% 50% 48% 2%
AtlasIntel[29] October 30–31, 2024 1,738 (LV) ± 2.0% 48% 49% 3%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[30] October 29–31, 2024 800 (LV) – 47% 49% 4%
YouGov[31][B] October 25–31, 2024 982 (RV) ± 3.5% 50% 48% 2%
956 (LV) 51% 48% 1%
Morning Consult[32] October 22−31, 2024 1,395 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 48% 4%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call[33] October 27–30, 2024 460 (RV) ± 6.0% 49% 47% 4%[i]
Marist College[34] October 27–30, 2024 1,558 (RV) ± 3.2% 51% 47% 2%[j]
1,400 (LV) ± 3.4% 50% 48% 2%[j]
Echelon Insights[35] October 27–30, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.5% 46% 52% 2%
AtlasIntel[36] October 25–29, 2024 1,299 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 50% 3%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[37][C] October 25–28, 2024 849 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 49% 4%[d]
Fox News[38] October 24–28, 2024 1,310 (RV) ± 2.5% 50% 48% 2%
1,057 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 50% 1%
Quinnipiac University[39] October 24–28, 2024 2,186 (LV) ± 2.1% 47% 49% 4%
CBS News/YouGov[40] October 22–28, 2024 1,273 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 49% 1%[k]
InsiderAdvantage (R)[41] October 26–27, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 48% 5%[c]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[42] October 25–27, 2024 1,116 (LV) ± 2.8% 48% 48% 4%[d]
North Star Opinion Research (R)[43][D] October 22–26, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 47% 6%[d]
CES/YouGov[44] October 1–25, 2024 3,708 (A) – 50% 47% 3%
3,685 (LV) 49% 48% 3%
Emerson College[45][E] October 21–22, 2024 860 (LV) ± 3.4% 48% 49% 3%
49%[f] 51% –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[46] October 20–22, 2024 1,586 (LV) ± 2.3% 48% 47% 5%[d]
Susquehanna Polling and Research (R)[47][F] October 18−22, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 46% 8%
Quantus Insights (R)[48][G] October 17−20, 2024 840 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 50% 2%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[49] October 16–20, 2024 866 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 48% 4%
812 (LV) 50% 48% 2%
Franklin & Marshall College[50] October 9−20, 2024 890 (RV) ± 4.3% 48% 44% 8%
583 (LV) ± 5.0% 49% 50% 1%
Trafalgar Group (R)[51] October 17−19, 2024 1,084 (LV) ± 2.9% 43% 46% 11%[l]
The Bullfinch Group[52] October 11−18, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 49% 2%
49% 48% 3%[m]
AtlasIntel[53] October 12–17, 2024 2,048 (LV) ± 2.0% 47% 50% 3%
Rose Institute/YouGov[54] October 7–17, 2024 1,062 (RV) ± 3.4% 48% 46% 6%[n]
1,043 (LV) 50% 48% 2%
Morning Consult[32] October 6−15, 2024 1,395 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 48% 3%
Washington Post/Schar School[55] September 30 – October 15, 2024 707 (RV) ± 4.6% 49% 46% 5%
707 (LV) 49% 47% 4%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[56][C] October 9–13, 2024 1,072 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 50% 3%[o]
New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer[57] October 7–10, 2024 857 (RV) ± 4.0% 50% 47% 4%
857 (LV) 50% 47% 3%
American Pulse Research & Polling[58] October 2–10, 2024 1,193 (LV) ± 2.8% 49.5% 50.5% –
TIPP Insights[59][D] October 7–9, 2024 1,079 (RV) ± 3.5% 49% 45% 6%
803 (LV) 48% 49% 3%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)[60][H] October 6–9, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 49% 3%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[61] October 7–8, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 49% 4%[d]
Emerson College[62] October 5–8, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 49% 3%[e]
49%[f] 50% 1%[e]
Wall Street Journal[63] September 28 – October 8, 2024 600 (RV) ± 5.0% 46% 47% 7%
Research Co.[64] October 5–7, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 48% 47% 5%[p]
50%[f] 49% 1%[p]
Quinnipiac University[65] October 3–7, 2024 1,412 (LV) ± 2.6% 49% 47% 4%
Hunt Research[66][I] October 2–7, 2024 1,037 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 48% 5%
Center for Working Class Politics/YouGov[67][J] September 24 – October 2, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 4.2% 47% 45% 8%[q]
OnMessage Inc. (R)[68][K] September 24 – October 2, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 46% 8%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[69][L] September 28–29, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 47% 6%[c]
Patriot Polling[70] September 27–29, 2024 816 (RV) – 49% 50% 1%
The Bullfinch Group[71][M] September 26–29, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 50% 46% 4%
Trafalgar Group (R)[72] September 26–29, 2024 1,090 (LV) ± 2.9% 45% 48% 7%[c]
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[73][N] September 23–29, 2024 408 (LV) ± 4.9% 48% 48% 4%
Emerson College[74][E] September 27–28, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 48% 4%[r]
49%[f] 49% 2%[r]
AtlasIntel[75] September 20–25, 2024 1,775 (LV) ± 2.0% 48% 51% 1%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[76] September 19–25, 2024 474 (LV) – 50% 49% 1%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[77] September 19–25, 2024 993 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 46% 5%
924 (LV) 51% 46% 3%
ActiVote[78] September 1–25, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 52% 48% –
Fox News[79] September 20−24, 2024 1,021 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 48% 2%
775 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 49% 2%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[80][O] September 17–24, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 47% 3%
Rodriguez Gudelunas Strategies[81][P] September 19–23, 2024 400 (LV) – 48% 48% 4%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[82][C] September 19–22, 2024 1,202 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 48% 4%[o]
50%[f] 49% 1%[o]
Susquehanna Polling and Research (R)[83][F] September 16–22, 2024 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 46% 8%[o]
RMG Research[84][Q] September 18–20, 2024 783 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 47% 5%[s]
49%[f] 49% 3%[t]
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call[85] September 16–19, 2024 450 (RV) ± 6.0% 48% 48% 4%[u]
Emerson College[86] September 15–18, 2024 880 (LV) ± 3.2% 47% 48% 5%[e]
50%[f] 49% 1%[e]
MassINC Polling Group[87][R] September 12−18, 2024 800 (LV) ± 4.0% 52% 47% 1%
Morning Consult[32] September 9−18, 2024 1,756 (LV) ± 2.0% 49% 47% 4%
Marist College[88] September 12−17, 2024 1,663 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 48% 3%[v]
1,476 (LV) ± 3.2% 49% 49% 2%[j]
Washington Post[89] September 12−16, 2024 1,003 (RV) ± 3.6% 48% 47% 5%[t]
1,003 (LV) 48% 48% 4%[t]
Quinnipiac University[90] September 12−16, 2024 1,331 (LV) ± 2.7% 51% 46% 2%
New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer[91] September 11−16, 2024 1,082 (RV) ± 3.8% 50% 46% 4%
1,082 (LV) 50% 46% 4%
Suffolk University/USA Today[92] September 11−16, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 46% 5%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[93] September 14−15, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 50% 2%[o]
September 10, 2024 The presidential debate between Harris and Trump hosted by ABC
Morning Consult[32] August 30 – September 8, 2024 1,910 (LV) ± 2.0% 49% 46% 5%
co/efficient (R)[94] September 4–6, 2024 889 (LV) ± 3.3% 46% 48% 6%
CBS News/YouGov[95] September 3–6, 2024 1,078 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 50% –
Patriot Polling[96] September 1–3, 2024 857 (RV) – 48% 49% 3%
Trafalgar Group (R)[97] August 28–30, 2024 1,082 (LV) ± 2.9% 45% 47% 8%[c]
Wick Insights[98][S] August 27–29, 2024 1,607 (LV) – 49% 49% 2%
Emerson College[99] August 25–28, 2024 950 (LV) ± 3.1% 48% 48% 4%[e]
49%[f] 49% 1%[e]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[100] August 23–26, 2024 803 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 47% 2%
758 (RV) ± 3.0% 51% 48% 1%
SoCal Strategies (R)[101][A] August 23, 2024 713 (LV) – 47% 48% 5%
800 (RV) 47% 47% 6%
August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
YouGov[102][T] August 15–23, 2024 500 (A) ± 5.1% 43% 43% 14%[w]
– (LV) ± 6.0% 47% 47% 6%[x]
August 22, 2024 Democratic National Convention concludes
ActiVote[103] August 5–22, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 51% 49% –
Fabrizio Ward (R)[104][U] August 19–21, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 46% 47% 7%
Spry Strategies (R)[105][V] August 14–20, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 47% 5%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[106] August 18–19, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 47% 7%[c]
Rasmussen Reports (R)[107][W] August 13–17, 2024 1,312 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 47% 7%
Focaldata[108] August 6–16, 2024 719 (LV) ± 3.7% 50% 50% –
Cygnal (R)[109] August 14–15, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 48% 47% 5%
Emerson College[110][E] August 13–14, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 49% 3%
49%[f] 51% –
Quinnipiac University[111] August 8–12, 2024 1,738 (LV) ± 2.4% 50% 47% 3%
The Bullfinch Group[112][X] August 8–11, 2024 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 49% 45% 6%
New York Times/Siena College[113] August 6–9, 2024 693 (RV) ± 4.2% 49% 46% 5%
693 (LV) 50% 46% 4%
Trafalgar Group (R)[114] August 6–8, 2024 1,078 (LV) ± 2.9% 44% 46% 10%
Navigator Research (D)[115] July 31 – August 8, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 48% 6%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[116] July 26 – August 8, 2024 411 (LV) – 49% 48% 3%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[117][Y] July 29 – August 1, 2024 600 (LV) – 48% 48% 4%
Public Policy Polling (D)[118][Z] July 29–30, 2024 627 (RV) ± 3.9% 47% 48% 5%
GQR Research (D)[119] July 26–30, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 46% 4%[y]
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[120][AA] July 23–29, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 48% 45% 7%
Quantus Insights (R)[121] July 27–28, 2024 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 46% 48% 6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[122] July 24–28, 2024 804 (RV) ± 4.0% 46% 50% 4%
The Bullfinch Group[123][M] July 23–25, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 47% 5%
Fox News[124] July 22–24, 2024 1,034 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 49% 2%
Emerson College[125] July 22–23, 2024 850 (RV) ± 3.3% 46% 48% 6%
49%[f] 51% –
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden announces his withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.
North Star Opinion Research (R)[126][D] July 20–23, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 47% 9%
SoCal Strategies (R)[127][AB] July 20–21, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 50% 4%
July 19, 2024 Republican National Convention concludes
InsiderAdvantage (R)[128] July 15–16, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 47% 13%
July 15, 2024 Republican National Convention begins
July 13, 2024 Attempted assassination of Donald Trump
Public Policy Polling (D)[129][Z] July 11–12, 2024 537 (RV) – 45% 51% 4%
New York Times/Siena College[130] July 9–11, 2024 872 (RV) ± 3.7% 46% 48% 6%
872 (LV) 47% 48% 5%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[131] May 7–13, 2024 812 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 50% 7%
Emerson College[132] February 14–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 40% 49% 11%
New York Times/Siena College[133] October 22 – November 3, 2023 600 (RV) ± 4.6% 44% 47% 9%
600 (LV) 44% 48% 8%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Others/
Undecided
[z] 		Margin
Race to the WH through October 28, 2024 November 2, 2024 48.0% 47.5% 1.0% — 0.6% 2.9% Harris +0.5%
270toWin October 17 – 28, 2024 November 2, 2024 47.9% 47.9% 0.8% — 0.7% 2.7% Tie
Average 47.95% 47.7% 0.9% — 0.65% 2.8% Harris +0.25%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
AtlasIntel[18] November 3–4, 2024 1,840 (LV) ± 2.0% 48% 49% – 1% 0% 2%
AtlasIntel[23] November 1–2, 2024 2,049 (LV) ± 2.0% 47% 49% – 1% 1% 2%
New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer[25] October 29 – November 2, 2024 1,527 (RV) ± 3.5% 46% 47% – 1% 1% 5%
1,527 (LV) 47% 47% – 1% 0% 5%
Focaldata[134] October 3 – November 1, 2024 2,373 (LV) – 50% 48% – 1% 1% –
2,119 (RV) ± 2.0% 51% 47% – 1% 1% –
2,373 (A) – 49% 47% – 1% 2% 1%
AtlasIntel[29] October 30–31, 2024 1,738 (LV) ± 2.0% 47% 49% – 1% 1% 2%
Data for Progress (D)[135] October 25–31, 2024 908 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 48% – 1% 0% 2%
YouGov[31][B] October 25–31, 2024 982 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 46% 0% 1% – 5%
956 (LV) 49% 46% 0% 0% – 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[136] October 28–31, 2024 1,596 (LV) – 48% 48% – 0% 1% 3%
Suffolk University/USA Today[137] October 27–30, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 49% – 0% 1% 1%
Echelon Insights[35] October 27–30, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.5% 46% 51% – 1% 0% 2%
Washington Post[138] October 26–30, 2024 1,204 (RV) ± 3.1% 48% 47% – 1% 1% 3%[t]
1,204 (LV) 48% 47% – 1% 1% 3%
AtlasIntel[36] October 25–29, 2024 1,299 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 49% – 1% 1% 2%
Quinnipiac University[39] October 24–28, 2024 2,186 (LV) ± 2.1% 46% 47% – 2% 1% 4%
CNN/SSRS[139] October 23–28, 2024 819 (LV) ± 4.7% 48% 48% – 1% 1% 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[140] October 25–27, 2024 1,116 (LV) – 48% 48% – 0% 1% 3%
North Star Opinion Research (R)[43][D] October 22–26, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 47% – 1% 1% 4%
University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov[141] October 16–23, 2024 800 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 47% – 1% 1% 3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[142] October 20–22, 2024 1,586 (LV) – 48% 47% – 0% 1% 4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[49] October 16–20, 2024 866 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 48% – 0% 2% 2%
812 (LV) 50% 48% – 0% 1% 1%
Franklin & Marshall College[50] October 9–20, 2024 890 (RV) ± 4.3% 49% 45% – 2% 1% 3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[143] October 16–18, 2024 1,256 (LV) – 48% 48% – 0% 1% 3%
AtlasIntel[53] October 12–17, 2024 2,048 (LV) ± 2.0% 47% 50% – 2% 0% 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[144] October 12–14, 2024 1,649 (LV) – 48% 48% – 0% 1% 3%
New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer[57] October 7–10, 2024 857 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 45% – 2% 1% 3%
857 (LV) 49% 45% – 1% 0% 5%
American Pulse Research & Polling[58] October 2–10, 2024 1,193 (LV) – 48% 49% – 2% 0% 1%[o]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[145] October 8–9, 2024 707 (LV) – 46% 48% – 0% 1% 5%
TIPP Insights[59][D] October 7–9, 2024 1,079 (RV) ± 3.5% 49% 45% 1% 1% – 4%
803 (LV) 48% 49% 1% 0% – 2%
University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov[146] October 2–9, 2024 800 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 45% – 1% 0% 8%
J.L. Partners[147][AC] October 5–8, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 47% – 1% 1% 4%
Quinnipiac University[65] October 3–7, 2024 1,412 (LV) ± 2.6% 49% 46% – 1% 1% 3%
Hunt Research[66][I] October 2–7, 2024 1,037 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 47% – 1% 1% 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[148] September 27 – October 2, 2024 5,686 (LV) – 48% 47% – 0% 1% 4%
The Bullfinch Group[71][M] September 26–29, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 50% 46% – 1% 0% 3%
AtlasIntel[75] September 20–25, 2024 1,775 (LV) ± 2.0% 48% 51% – 0% 0% 1%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[77] September 19–25, 2024 993 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 44% – 0% 4% 2%
924 (LV) 51% 45% – 0% 3% 1%
Fox News[79] September 20−24, 2024 1,021 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 46% – 1% 2% 3%
775 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 48% – 2% 2% 1%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[80][O] September 17–24, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 47% – 1% 0% 3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[149] September 16–19, 2024 1,086 (LV) – 47% 47% – 0% 1% 5%
University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov[150] September 11–19, 2024 800 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 46% – 1% 1% 4%
MassINC Polling Group[87][R] September 12−18, 2024 800 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 46% − 1% 0% 3%
Quinnipiac University[90] September 12−16, 2024 1,331 (LV) ± 2.7% 51% 45% − 1% 0% 3%
Franklin & Marshall College[151] September 4–15, 2024 890 (RV) ± 4.1% 49% 46% – 1% 1% 3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[152] September 6–9, 2024 801 (LV) – 45% 45% – 0% 1% 9%
YouGov[153][B] August 23 – September 3, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.6% 46% 45% 0% 1% – 8%[o]
Wick Insights[98][S] August 27–29, 2024 1,607 (LV) – 47% 48% – 1% 1% 3%
CNN/SSRS[154] August 23–29, 2024 789 (LV) ± 4.7% 47% 47% – 1% 1% 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[155] August 25–28, 2024 1,071 (LV) – 46% 45% – 1% 0% 8%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[100] August 23–26, 2024 803 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 46% – 1% 1% 1%
758 (RV) ± 3.0% 51% 45% – 2% 1% 1%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[76] September 19–25, 2024 474 (LV) – 49% 47% 1% 3%
Remington Research Group (R)[156][AD] September 16–20, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 48% 1% 4%
Washington Post[89] September 12−16, 2024 1,003 (RV) ± 3.6% 48% 47% 1% 4%[t]
1,003 (LV) 48% 47% 1% 4%
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
Fox News[38] October 24–28, 2024 1,310 (RV) ± 2.5% 48% 46% 3% 0% 1% 1% 1%
1,057 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 48% 2% 0% 1% 0% 1%
Wall Street Journal[63] September 28 – October 8, 2024 600 (RV) ± 5.0% 45% 46% 0% 0% 2% 1% 6%
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[73][N] September 23–29, 2024 408 (LV) ± 4.9% 47% 47% 0% 0% 0% 1% 5%
New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer[91] September 11−16, 2024 1,082 (RV) ± 3.8% 48% 45% 0% 0% 1% 1% 5%
1,082 (LV) 49% 45% 0% 0% 1% 1% 4%
YouGov[102][T] August 15–23, 2024 500 (A) ± 5.1% 43% 41% 3% 0% 1% 1% 11%[aa]
– (LV) ± 5.9% 48% 46% 2% 0% 1% 1% 2%
Spry Strategies (R)[105][V] August 14–20, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 45% 4% – 1% – 4%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[107][W] August 13–17, 2024 1,312 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 45% 5% 0% 1% – 3%
Focaldata[108] August 6–16, 2024 719 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 47% 4% – 0% 0% 1%
719 (RV) 49% 46% 4% – 0% 0% 1%
719 (A) 47% 47% 4% – 0% 0% 2%
Cygnal (R)[109] August 14–15, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 43% 44% 5% 2% 2% 0% 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[157] August 12–15, 2024 825 (LV) – 46% 44% 4% – 0% 0% 6%
Emerson College[110][E] August 13–14, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 47% 3% 0% 0% 0% 3%
Quinnipiac University[111] August 8–12, 2024 1,738 (LV) ± 2.4% 48% 45% 4% – 0% 0% 3%
The Bullfinch Group[112][X] August 8–11, 2024 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 45% 41% 6% 2% 0% – 6%
Franklin & Marshall College[158] July 31 – August 11, 2024 920 (RV) ± 3.8% 46% 43% 6% – 1% 1% 3%
New York Times/Siena College[113] August 6–9, 2024 693 (RV) ± 4.2% 45% 43% 5% 0% 2% 1% 5%
693 (LV) 46% 44% 4% 0% 1% 1% 3%
Navigator Research (D)[115] July 31 – August 8, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 46% 5% 1% 1% 1% 2%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[116] July 26 – August 8, 2024 411 (LV) – 48% 43% 5% 0% 0% – 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[159] July 31 – August 3, 2024 743 (LV) – 44% 46% 3% – 0% 0% 7%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[122] July 24–28, 2024 804 (RV) ± 4.0% 44% 46% 3% – 1% 4% 2%
The Bullfinch Group[123][M] July 23–25, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 44% 44% 6% – 1% 1% 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[160] July 22–24, 2024 851 (LV) – 42% 46% 5% – 0% 0% 7%
Fox News[124] July 22–24, 2024 1,034 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 43% 7% 1% 1% – 3%
Emerson College[125] July 22–23, 2024 850 (RV) ± 3.3% 44% 46% 3% 1% 1% 0% 5%
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden announces his withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.
Public Policy Polling (D)[161][AE] July 17–18, 2024 624 (RV) ± 3.8% 43% 45% 4% – 2% – 6%
New York Times/Siena College[130] July 9–11, 2024 872 (RV) ± 3.7% 40% 42% 7% 0% 3% – 8%
872 (LV) 42% 43% 6% 0% 2% – 7%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Z to A Research (D)[162][AF] August 23–26, 2024 613 (LV) – 46% 46% 5% 3%
Fabrizio Ward (R)[104][U] August 19–21, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 43% 43% 3% 11%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[117][Y] July 29 – August 1, 2024 600 (LV) – 45% 45% 4% 6%
Susquehanna Polling and Research (R)[163] July 22–28, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 43% 3% 7%
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden announces his withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.
Civiqs[164][AF] July 13–16, 2024 536 (RV) ± 4.7% 44% 46% 5% 5%
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
SoCal Strategies (R)[101][A] August 23, 2024 713 (LV) – 43% 47% 10%
800 (RV) 41% 46% 13%
SoCal Strategies (R)[127][AB] July 20–21, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 50% 4%
Public Policy Polling (D)[161][AE] July 17–18, 2024 624 (RV) ± 3.8% 44% 49% 7%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[128] July 15–16, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 49% 6%
Emerson College[165][AG] July 15–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 48% 9%
Public Policy Polling (D)[129][Z] July 11–12, 2024 537 (RV) – 44% 47% 9%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[166][AH] July 5–12, 2024 1,041 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 47% 9%
New York Times/Siena College[130] July 9–11, 2024 872 (RV) ± 3.7% 44% 48% 8%
872 (LV) 45% 48% 7%
Echelon Insights[167][AI] July 1–8, 2024 612 (LV) ± 4.9% 48% 47% 7%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[168] July 1–5, 2024 794 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 51% 5%
Emerson College[169][AG] June 30 – July 2, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 48% 9%
Remington Research Group (R)[170] June 29 – July 1, 2024 673 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 48% 9%
Cygnal (R)[171] June 27–28, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 48% 8%
The Bullfinch Group[172][M] June 14–19, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.46% 45% 44% 12%
Emerson College[173] June 13–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 47% 8%
49%[f] 51% –
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[174] May 30–31, 2024 1,012 (RV) ± 3.1% 43% 45% 12%
923 (LV) 45% 47% 8%
KAConsulting (R)[175][AJ] May 15–19, 2024 600 (RV) – 44% 44% 12%
Prime Group[176][AK] May 9–16, 2024 487 (RV) – 51% 49% –
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[131] May 7–13, 2024 812 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 48% 6%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[177] May 6–13, 2024 730 (LV) ± 3.6% 45% 48% 7%
New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer[178] April 28 – May 9, 2024 1,023 (RV) ± 3.6% 44% 47% 9%
1,023 (LV) 45% 48% 7%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[179][O] April 24–30, 2024 1,398 (LV) ± 3.0% 45% 49% 6%
Emerson College[180] April 25–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 47% 8%
49%[f] 51% –
CBS News/YouGov[181] April 19–25, 2024 1,288 (LV) ± 3.1% 49% 50% 1%
Muhlenberg College[182] April 15–25, 2024 417 (RV) ± 6.0% 41% 44% 15%
John Zogby Strategies[183][AL] April 13–21, 2024 628 (LV) – 50% 45% 5%
Kaplan Strategies[184] April 20–21, 2024 802 (RV) ± 3.5% 41% 46% 13%
Fox News[185] April 11–16, 2024 1,141 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 48% 4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[186] April 8–15, 2024 803 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 47% 7%
The Bullfinch Group[187][X] March 29 – April 3, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 38% 44% 18%[ab]
Franklin & Marshall College[188] March 20–31, 2024 870 (RV) ± 4.0% 48% 38% 14%
Big Data Poll (R)[189] March 26–30, 2024 1,305 (RV) ± 2.6% 40% 46% 14%[ac]
42% 44% 14%
49%[f] 51% −
Wall Street Journal[190] March 17–24, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 44% 47% 9%
Echelon Insights[191][AM] March 12–19, 2024 400 (LV) ± 5.5% 45% 49% 6%
CNN/SSRS[192] March 13–18, 2024 1,132 (RV) ± 3.8% 46% 46% 8%
Emerson College[193] March 10–13, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 47% 10%
48%[f] 52% –
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[194] March 8–12, 2024 807 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 45% 10%
Fox News[195] March 7–11, 2024 1,149 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 49% 4%
Susquehanna Polling & Research[196] February 27 – March 7, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 50% 45% 5%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[197] February 12–20, 2024 803 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 49% 8%
Emerson College[132] February 14–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 45% 12%
Chism Strategies[198] February 6–8, 2024 500 (RV) ± 5.0% 32% 40% 28%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[199] January 22–25, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 48% 10%
Franklin & Marshall College[200] January 17–28, 2024 507 (RV) ± 5.0% 43% 42% 15%
Focaldata[201] January 17–23, 2024 834 (A) – 38% 46% 16%[ad]
– (LV) 42% 47% 11%[ae]
– (LV) 49%[f] 51% –
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[202] January 16–21, 2024 795 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 48% 7%
Susquehanna Polling & Research[203] January 15–21, 2024 745 (RV) ± 3.7% 47% 39% 14%
Quinnipiac University[204] January 4–8, 2024 1,680 (RV) ± 2.4% 49% 46% 5%[af]
The Bullfinch Group[205] December 14–18, 2023 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 45% 10%
Change Research/Future Majority (D)[206] December 3–7, 2023 (RVs) – 40% 46% 14%
Muhlenberg College[207] November 20 – December 13, 2023 421 (RV) ± 6.0% 42% 41% 17%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[208] November 27 – December 6, 2023 799 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 46% 10%
Big Data Poll (R)[209] November 16–19, 2023 1,382 (RV) ± 2.6% 37% 41% 22%[ag]
1,284 (LV) 39% 41% 20%[ah]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[210] October 30 – November 7, 2023 805 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 47% 9%
Emerson College[211] October 30 – November 4, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 46% 11%
816 (LV) – 45% 49% 6%
New York Times/Siena College[133] October 22 – November 3, 2023 600 (RV) ± 4.6% 44% 48% 8%
(600 LV) 44% 49% 7%
Franklin & Marshall College[212] October 11–22, 2023 873 (RV) ± 4.1% 44% 42% 14%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[213] October 5–10, 2023 807 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 46% 9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[214] October 7–9, 2023 900 (LV) – 43% 42% 15%
Emerson College[215] October 1–4, 2023 430 (RV) ± 4.7% 36% 45% 19%
Quinnipiac University[216] September 28 – October 2, 2023 1,725 (RV) ± 2.4% 45% 47% 8%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[217] September 19–28, 2023 700 (RV) ± 3.7% 47% 45% 8%[ai]
Public Policy Polling (D)[218][AN] September 25–26, 2023 673 (RV) ± 3.8% 48% 45% 7%
National Public Affairs[219] September 14–17, 2023 622 (LV) ± 3.9% 47% 45% 8%
Franklin & Marshall College[220] August 9–20, 2023 723 (RV) ± 4.5% 42% 40% 18%
Prime Group[221][AK] June 14–28, 2023 500 (RV) – 50% 50% –
38% 43% 19%[aj]
Quinnipiac University[222] June 22–26, 2023 1,584 (RV) ± 2.5% 46% 47% 7%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[223][AO] June 17–19, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 48% 45% 7%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[224][AO] April 11–13, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 46% 42% 12%
Franklin & Marshall College[225] March 27 – April 7, 2023 643 (RV) ± 4.9% 36% 35% 29%
Susquehanna Polling & Research[226] February 19–26, 2023 800 (RV) ± 3.2% 48% 41% 11%
Targoz Market Research[227] November 2–6, 2022 904 (RV) – 48% 48% 4%
631 (LV) ± 3.8% 46% 52% 2%
Emerson College[228] October 28–31, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 44% 12%
Emerson College[229] September 23–26, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 45% 46% 9%
Echelon Insights[230][AI] August 31 – September 7, 2022 828 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 43% 9%
Emerson College[231] August 22–23, 2022 1,034 (LV) ± 3.0% 42% 47% 11%
PEM Management Corporation (R)[232][AP] July 22–24, 2022 300 (LV) ± 5.7% 42% 44% 14%
Blueprint Polling (D)[233] July 19–21, 2022 712 (LV) ± 3.7% 42% 41% 17%
Blueprint Polling (D)[234] February 15–16, 2022 635 (LV) ± 3.9% 45% 40% 15%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[235][H] November 11–16, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 51% 4%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College[165][AG] July 15–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 40% 46% 4% 1% 1% 8%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[166][AH] July 5–12, 2024 1,041 (LV) ± 3.0% 42% 46% 6% 1% 2% 3%
YouGov[236][B] July 4–12, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.4% 40% 43% 3% 1% 1% 12%
New York Times/Siena College[130] July 9–11, 2024 872 (RV) ± 3.7% 38% 41% 8% 0% 2% 11%
872 (LV) 40% 42% 7% 0% 2% 9%
Echelon Insights[167][AI] July 1–8, 2024 612 (LV) ± 4.9% 44% 42% 6% 1% 2% 5%[ak]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[168] July 1–5, 2024 794 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 44% 7% 1% 1% 6%
Cygnal (R)[171] June 27–28, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 38% 42% 9% 2% 2% 7%
Emerson College[173] June 13–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 45% 5% 0% 1% 12%
Marist College[237] June 3–6, 2024 1,181 (RV) ± 3.6% 45% 47% 3% 1% 1% 3%[al]
KAConsulting (R)[175][AJ] May 15–19, 2024 600 (RV) – 39% 41% 9% 1% 3% 7%[am]
Prime Group[176][AK] May 9–16, 2024 487 (RV) – 45% 42% 9% 2% 2% –
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[131] May 7–13, 2024 812 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 45% 7% 2% 1% 3%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[177] May 6–13, 2024 730 (LV) ± 3.6% 40% 43% 7% 2% 2% 6%
New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer[178] April 28 – May 9, 2024 1,023 (RV) ± 3.6% 36% 40% 10% 0% 1% 13%[an]
1,023 (LV) 37% 41% 9% 0% 1% 12%[an]
Emerson College[180] April 25–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 45% 6% 1% 1% 7%
Fox News[185] April 11–16, 2024 1,141 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 44% 8% 1% 2% 3%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[186] April 8–15, 2024 803 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 43% 8% 0% 1% 6%
Wall Street Journal[190] March 17–24, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 38% 41% 7% 3% 1% 10%
Emerson College[193] March 10–13, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 40% 44% 5% 1% 1% 9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[194] March 8–12, 2024 807 (RV) ± 3.0% 38% 44% 7% 0% 1% 10%
Fox News[195] March 7–11, 2024 1,149 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 42% 9% 2% 2% 3%
Axis Research[238][AQ] February 25–27, 2024 601 (RV) ± 4.1% 40% 39% 8% 1% 2% 20%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[197] February 12–20, 2024 803 (RV) ± 3.0% 36% 45% 8% 1% 1% 9%
Emerson College[132] February 14–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 37% 42% 8% 2% 1% 10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[239] January 16–21, 2024 795 (RV) ± 3.0% 40% 43% 7% 1% 1% 8%
Quinnipiac University[204] January 4–8, 2023 1,680 (RV) ± 2.4% 41% 39% 11% 2% 4% 3%[ao]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[240] November 27 – December 6, 2023 799 (RV) ± 3.0% 38% 39% 9% 1% 1% 12%
Big Data Poll (R)[209] November 16–19, 2023 1,382 (RV) ± 2.6% 35% 40% 9% 1% 1% 14%[ap]
1,284 (LV) 37% 41% 9% 1% 1% 11%[t]

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[161][AE] July 17–18, 2024 624 (RV) ± 3.8% 42% 46% 4% 2% 6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[241] July 16–18, 2024 688 (LV) – 41% 45% 4% 1% 9%[aq]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[242] July 8–10, 2024 719 (LV) – 40% 45% 6% 1% 8%[aq]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[243] June 8–11, 2024 456 (LV) – 42% 44% 5% 1% 8%[aq]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[244] May 2–4, 2024 635 (LV) – 41% 43% 7% 0% 9%
Franklin & Marshall College[188] March 20–31, 2024 870 (RV) ± 4.0% 42% 40% 9% 3% 8%
Big Data Poll (R)[189] March 26–30, 2024 1,305 (RV) ± 2.6% 40% 44% 8% 2% 6%
42%[f] 46% 9% 3% −
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[245] March 14–17, 2024 775 (LV) – 41% 44% 7% 1% 7%
Franklin & Marshall College[200] January 17–28, 2024 494 (RV) ± 5.0% 42% 37% 8% 2% 11%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Civiqs[164][AF] July 13–16, 2024 536 (RV) ± 4.7% 42% 46% 6% 6%
1983 Labs[246] June 28–30, 2024 741 (LV) ± 3.6% 41% 46% 3% 10%[ak]
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[174] May 30–31, 2024 1,012 (RV) ± 3.1% 41% 39% 8% 12%
923 (LV) 43% 42% 7% 8%
Muhlenberg College[182] April 15–25, 2024 417 (RV) ± 6.0% 35% 35% 18% 12%
Big Data Poll (R)[189] March 26–30, 2024 1,305 (RV) ± 2.6% 39% 45% 7% 6%[ar]
40%[f] 45% 8% 7%[as]
The Bullfinch Group[247][M] March 22–26, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 44% 41% 7% 8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[248] December 28–30, 2023 1,069 (LV) – 39% 40% 9% 12%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[249] November 27–29, 2023 887 (LV) – 37% 44% 7% 10%
Big Data Poll (R)[209] November 16–19, 2023 1,382 (RV) ± 2.6% 36% 40% 8% 16%[at]
1,284 (LV) 38% 41% 8% 13%[au]
New York Times/Siena College[250] October 22 – November 3, 2023 600 (RV) ± 4.6 35% 35% 23% 7%
600 (LV) 36% 36% 21% 7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[214] October 7–9, 2023 900 (LV) – 39% 39% 9% 13%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
CNN/SSRS[192] March 13–18, 2024 1,132 (RV) ± 3.8% 38% 40% 16% 4% 4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[251] October 30 – November 7, 2023 805 (RV) ± 3.0% 38% 41% 8% 1% 12%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[183][AL] April 13–21, 2024 628 (LV) – 47% 42% 11%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[183][AL] April 13–21, 2024 628 (LV) – 40% 41% 19%

Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Gavin
Newsom
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[129][Z] July 11–12, 2024 537 (RV) – 42% 51% 7%
Emerson College[132] February 14–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 33% 48% 19%

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Gretchen
Whitmer
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Fox News[124] July 22–24, 2024 1,034 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 49% 3%
Public Policy Polling (D)[129][Z] July 11–12, 2024 537 (RV) – 42% 50% 8%

JB Pritzker vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		JB
Pritzker
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[129][Z] July 11–12, 2024 537 (RV) – 37% 50% 13%

Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Josh
Shapiro
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Fox News[124] July 22–24, 2024 1,034 (RV) ± 3.0% 54% 44% 2%
Public Policy Polling (D)[129][Z] July 11–12, 2024 537 (RV) – 47% 46% 7%
Muhlenberg College[207] November 20 – December 13, 2023 421 (RV) ± 6.0% 48% 37% 15%

Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump vs Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Josh
Shapiro
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[161][AE] July 17–18, 2024 624 (RV) ± 3.8% 47% 43% 3% 1% 6%

Pete Buttigieg vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Pete
Buttigieg
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[129][Z] July 11–12, 2024 537 (RV) – 41% 50% 9%

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Nikki
Haley
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Muhlenberg College[207] November 20 – December 13, 2023 421 (RV) ± 6.0% 33% 38% 29%
New York Times/Siena College[252] October 22 – November 3, 2023 600 (RV) ± 4.6% 38% 48% 14%
600 (LV) 39% 49% 12%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[217] September 19–28, 2023 700 (RV) ± 3.7% 44% 45% 11%[ai]

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Nikki
Haley
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[249] November 27–29, 2023 887 (LV) – 36% 26% 18% 20%[av]

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Nikki
Haley
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Axis Research[238][AQ] February 25–27, 2024 601 (RV) ± 4.1% 39% 19% 13% 1% 1% 27%


Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Muhlenberg College[207] November 20 – December 13, 2023 421 (RV) ± 6.0% 41% 39% 20%
New York Times/Siena College[252] October 22 – November 3, 2023 600 (RV) ± 4.6% 43% 45% 12%
600 (LV) 43% 47% 10%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[253] May 2–8, 2023 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 39% 12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[223][AO] June 17–19, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 45% 48% 7%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[224][AO] April 11–13, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 42% 45% 13%
Echelon Insights[230][AI] August 31 – September 7, 2022 828 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 42% 12%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[249] November 27–29, 2023 887 (LV) – 37% 34% 13% 12%[aw]

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Democratic 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[253] May 2–8, 2023 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 42% 38% 20%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania[254]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican
3,539,563 50.4 +1.7
Democratic
3,416,992 48.6 −1.41
Libertarian
33,282 0.5 −0.64
Green
34,442 0.5
Write-in
Total votes

Analysis

[edit]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ a b c d e f "Other" with 3%
  4. ^ a b c d e f "Other" with 2%
  5. ^ a b c d e f g h "Someone else" with 1%
  6. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  7. ^ "Another Candidate" with 2%
  8. ^ "Another Candidate" with 1%
  9. ^ "Neither/Other" with 2%
  10. ^ a b c "Another Party's Candidate" with 1%
  11. ^ "Someone else/third party" with 1%
  12. ^ "Other" with 5%
  13. ^ "A third party / Independent candidate" with 2%
  14. ^ "Other" with 6%
  15. ^ a b c d e f g "Other" with 1%
  16. ^ a b "Some other candidate" with 1%
  17. ^ "Another Candidate" with 3%
  18. ^ a b "Someone else" with 2%
  19. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  20. ^ a b c d e f "Would not vote" with 1%
  21. ^ "Neither/Other" with 4%
  22. ^ "Another Party's Candidate" with 2%
  23. ^ "Will not vote" with 6%
  24. ^ "Will not vote" with 1%
  25. ^ Chase Oliver (L) with 2%
  26. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  27. ^ "Will not vote" with 6%
  28. ^ Independent/Third party candidate with 12%
  29. ^ "Someone else / third party" with 8%
  30. ^ "Another candidate" with 10%
  31. ^ "Another candidate" with 7%
  32. ^ "Undecided" & "Wouldn't vote" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  33. ^ "Someone else / third party" with 11%; "Would not vote" with 3%
  34. ^ "Someone else / third party" with 11%; "Would not vote" with 1%
  35. ^ a b "Other" with 4%
  36. ^ No Labels candidate
  37. ^ a b Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
  38. ^ Chase Oliver (L) with >1%
  39. ^ Lars Mapstead with 1%
  40. ^ a b Lars Mapstead (L) with 0%
  41. ^ "Undecided" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  42. ^ "Would not vote" with 3%
  43. ^ a b c Chase Oliver (L) with 0%
  44. ^ "Someone else / third party" with 4%
  45. ^ "Someone else / third party" with 7%
  46. ^ "Another third party candidate" with 6%; "Would not vote" with 2%
  47. ^ "Another third party candidate" with 6%; "Would not vote" with 1%
  48. ^ "Other (Third Party/Write-In)" with 3%; "Won't vote" with 2%; "Other (L)" & "Other (G)" with 1% each
  49. ^ "Other (Third Party/Write-In)", "Won't vote", & "Other (L)" with 1% each; "Other (G)" with 0%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by On Point Politics & Red Eagle Politics
  2. ^ a b c d Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
  3. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by American Thinker
  4. ^ a b c d e Poll sponsored by American Greatness
  5. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by RealClearPennsylvania
  6. ^ a b Poll sponsored by La Torre Live
  7. ^ Poll sponsored by TrendingPolitics
  8. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
  9. ^ a b Poll conducted for the University of Austin
  10. ^ Poll sponsored by Jacobin
  11. ^ Poll conducted for the Article III Project
  12. ^ Poll conducted for the Sentinel Action Fund PAC
  13. ^ a b c d e f Poll sponsored by Commonwealth Foundation
  14. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation
  15. ^ a b c Poll commissioned by AARP
  16. ^ Poll sponsored by Focus on Rural America
  17. ^ Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
  18. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Spotlight PA
  19. ^ a b Poll sponsored by 2WAY
  20. ^ a b Poll conducted for the Cato Institute
  21. ^ a b Poll conducted for the Pinpoint Policy Institute
  22. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the American Principles Project
  23. ^ a b Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
  24. ^ a b c Poll conducted for The Independent Center
  25. ^ a b Poll commissioned by Early Vote Action PAC
  26. ^ a b c d e f g h Poll conducted for Progress Action Fund, which supports Democratic candidates
  27. ^ Poll conducted for Competitiveness Coalition
  28. ^ a b Poll sponsored by On Point Politics
  29. ^ Poll sponsored by The Daily Mail
  30. ^ Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republican candidates
  31. ^ a b c d Poll conducted for Clean and Prosperous America PAC
  32. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Rust Belt Rising, which supports Democratic candidates
  33. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation PAC
  34. ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Heartland Institute
  35. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by NetChoice
  36. ^ a b Poll conducted for Vapor Technology Association
  37. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump and third party candidates
  38. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  39. ^ Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
  40. ^ Poll commissioned by Save My Country Action Fund
  41. ^ a b c d Poll conducted for the Citizen Awareness Project
  42. ^ Poll conducted for the John Bolton Super PAC
  43. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Pennsylvania Energy Infrastructure Alliance

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[edit]
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