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2024 United States Senate election in Missouri

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For related races, see 2024 United States Senate elections.
Not to be confused with 2024 Missouri Senate election.
2024 United States Senate election in Missouri
← 2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →
Reporting
95%
as of Nov. 6, 1:40 AM CST[1]
 
Nominee Josh Hawley Lucas Kunce
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,608,610 1,216,082
Percentage 55.5% 41.9%
County results
Hawley:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Kunce:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      80–90%
U.S. senator before election

Josh Hawley
Republican

Elected U.S. senator

Josh Hawley
Republican

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The 2024 United States Senate election in Missouri was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Missouri. Republican incumbent Josh Hawley sought a second term. He was being challenged by Democratic attorney Lucas Kunce. Primary elections took place on August 6, 2024.[2]

Background

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From 1904 to 2004, Missouri's electoral votes always went to the winner of the presidential race, with only one exception: in 1956, during the landslide re-election of President Dwight Eisenhower, Missouri went to Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson. The state's accuracy in voting with the national consensus includes the highly competitive elections of 1960, 1976, and 2000.[3]

Missouri is no longer thought of as a perennial swing state, and is today considered to be a strongly red state. Since 1964, the only three Democrats it has backed have been Southerners: Lyndon B. Johnson, Jimmy Carter, and Bill Clinton. In 2008, Missouri narrowly voted for the losing candidate, Republican John McCain, despite a sizable electoral college win for Democrat Barack Obama. In 2012, Missouri favored losing candidate Mitt Romney by nearly 10 percentage points, despite another significant victory for Obama in the rest of the country. In 2016 and 2020, Missouri again voted strongly Republican, this time for Donald Trump by over 15 points, despite Trump losing the latter election. This marked the third time in four presidential elections that Missouri supported a losing Republican. Missouri has not supported any Democratic candidate since Bill Clinton in 1996.[3]

In more recent years, Republicans have experienced significant electoral success in the state. In 2016, the Republican Party secured victories in key statewide positions, including Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, and Treasurer. Building on this momentum, in 2022, Scott Fitzpatrick successfully won the position of Auditor, a seat previously held by Democrat Nicole Galloway. Notably, Nicole Galloway remains the last Democrat to have been elected to a statewide position in the state.[4]

The most recent Democrat to secure election to the Senate from Missouri was Claire McCaskill back in 2012. She sought a third term in 2018, facing off against Josh Hawley, but was ultimately defeated by a margin of 5.8%.[5]

Most pollsters categorize this race as a secure one for the Republican Party.[6][7][8][9]

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Endorsements

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Josh Hawley
Organizations

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of July 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Josh Hawley (R) $22,492,767 $17,267,201 $5,701,081
Source: Federal Election Commission[13]

Results

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Republican primary results[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Josh Hawley (incumbent) 607,602 100.0%
Total votes 607,602 100.0%

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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Withdrawn

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Endorsements

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Lucas Kunce
U.S. representatives
State officials
State senators
State representatives
Municipal officials
Local officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Karla May
State representatives
Local officials
Wesley Bell (withdrawn)
State officials
State representatives
Municipal officials
Local officials

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of July 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
December Harmon (D) $16,524[f] $15,578 $945
Lucas Kunce (D) $11,193,778 $6,959,981 $4,241,078
Karla May (D) $53,962 $48,314 $5,647
Source: Federal Election Commission[13]

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[g] 		Margin
of error 		Mita
Biswas 		December
Harmon 		Lucas
Kunce 		Karla
May 		Undecided
Remington Research Group[A] July 10-11, 2024 600 (LV) – 1% 4% 39% 10% 46%

Results

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Results by county:
  Kunce
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  May
  •   40–50%
Democratic primary results[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Lucas Kunce 255,775 67.64%
Democratic Karla May 87,908 23.25%
Democratic December Harmon 26,804 7.09%
Democratic Mita Biswas 7,647 2.02%
Total votes 378,134 100.0%

Third-party and independent candidates

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Declared

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  • Jared Young (Better Party), payroll services executive[59]
  • Nathan Kline (Green), executive assistant[60]
  • W. C. Young (Libertarian)[60]

Results

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Libertarian primary results[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian W.C. Young 2,437 100.0%
Total votes 2,437 100.0%

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Jared Young (I) $364,377[h] $253,727 $110,650
Source: Federal Election Commission[13]

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[6] Solid R November 9, 2023
Inside Elections[7] Solid R November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] Safe R November 9, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[61] Likely R August 26, 2024
Elections Daily[9] Safe R May 4, 2023
CNalysis[62] Solid R November 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics[63] Likely R August 5, 2024
Split Ticket[64] Safe R October 23, 2024
538[65] Solid R October 26, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

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Josh Hawley (R)
Individuals
Organizations
  • Missouri Farm Bureau PAC[67]
Lucas Kunce (D)
U.S. Representatives
Organizations
Newspapers
Organizations
Individuals
Jared Young (B)
U.S. Senators

Polling

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Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Josh
Hawley (R) 		Lucas
Kunce (D) 		Undecided
[i] 		Margin
FiveThirtyEight through November 3, 2024 November 4, 2024 51.3% 41.8% 6.9% Hawley +9.5%
TheHill/DDHQ through November 3, 2024 November 4, 2024 52.6% 44.5% 2.9% Hawley +8.1%
Average 52.0% 43.2% 4.8% Hawley +8.8%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[g] 		Margin
of error 		Josh
Hawley (R) 		Lucas
Kunce (D) 		Other Undecided
Research Co. November 2–3, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 52% 41% 3%[j] 4%
ActiVote October 6–27, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 56% 44% – –
GQR (D)[B] October 23–26, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 46% – 5%
Emerson College[C] October 22–23, 2024 620 (LV) ± 3.9% 51% 41% 2%[k] 7%
ActiVote September 1 – October 1, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 54% 46% – –
Emerson College[D] September 12–13, 2024 850 (LV) ± 3.3% 51% 40% 1% 8%
Change Research September 11–13, 2024 1,237 (RV) ± 3.1% 46% 41% 4% 9%
GQR Research (D)[E] September 6–12, 2024 645 (LV) ± 3.9% 50% 46% 2% 2%
52% 48% – –
Remington Research Group (R)[A] September 4–5, 2024 816 (LV) – 52% 37% – 11%
YouGov/Saint Louis University August 8-16, 2024 900 (LV) ± 3.8% 53% 42% – 4%
Emerson College June 17–19, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 38% 5% 10%
Remington Research Group (R)[A] March 6–8, 2024 713 (LV) ± 3.9% 53% 39% – 8%
Emerson College January 23–28, 2024 1,830 (RV) ± 2.2% 43% 30% 7% 20%
Show Me Victories (D) October 26–31, 2023 407 (RV) ± 4.9% 46% 42% 4% 8%
Emerson College October 1–4, 2023 491 (RV) ± 4.4% 45% 32% 5% 17%
GQR Research (D)[E] August 16–19, 2023 863 (LV) ± 3.3% 44% 43% – 12%
Hypothetical polling
Josh Hawley vs. Wesley Bell
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[g] 		Margin
of error 		Josh
Hawley (R) 		Wesley
Bell (D) 		Other Undecided
Emerson College October 1–4, 2023 491 (RV) ± 4.4% 44% 34% 5% 17%

Debate

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2024 United States Senate election in Missouri debate
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican Democratic Libertarian Green Better
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Hawley Kunce Young Kline Young
1 Sep. 20, 2024 Missouri Press Association David Lieb YouTube P P N P P

Results

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2024 United States Senate election in Missouri[1]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Josh Hawley (incumbent) 1,608,610 55.5%
Democratic Lucas Kunce 1,216,082 41.9%
Libertarian W. C. Young 35,067 1.2%
Better Party Jared Young 20,661 0.7%
Green Nathan Kline 19,688 0.7%
Total votes 2,900,108 100.0%
Republican hold

Notes

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  1. ^ Bricklayers Administrative District Council of Missouri and Locals 1 and 15
  2. ^ Missouri State Council of Fire Fighters and IAFF 2nd district and Local 2665
  3. ^ Locals 1, 27, and 63
  4. ^ Locals 264, 663, and 1290
  5. ^ Locals 8, 268, 314, 533, and 669
  6. ^ $6,102 of this total was self-funded by Harmon
  7. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  8. ^ $245,000 of this total was self-funded by Young
  9. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  10. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  11. ^ Young (L) with 1%; Kline (G) with 1%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by the Missouri Scout
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by IAFF Local 2665
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by The Hill and Nexstar
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by The Hill
  5. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Kunce's campaign

References

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  1. ^ a b "Missouri U.S. Senate Election Results". The New York Times. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 5, 2024.
  2. ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
  3. ^ a b "Missouri Presidential Election Voting History - 270toWin". 270toWin.com. Retrieved July 1, 2024.
  4. ^ "Nicole Galloway". Ballotpedia. Retrieved July 1, 2024.
  5. ^ "Missouri | Full Senate results". www.cnn.com. Retrieved July 1, 2024.
  6. ^ a b "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  7. ^ a b "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  8. ^ a b "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
  9. ^ a b "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  10. ^ Jones, Dustin (January 20, 2023). "Hawley on the ballot: The 2024 Senate elections are already getting competitive". KCUR 89.3. NPR. Retrieved May 22, 2023.
  11. ^ "Support Pro-Israel Candidates". AIPAC. Retrieved March 31, 2023.
  12. ^ "Senate Conservatives Fund". www.senateconservatives.com. Retrieved September 2, 2023.
  13. ^ a b c "2024 Election United States Senate - Missouri". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
  14. ^ a b c "Missouri Election Results - Primary Election August 6, 2024". Missouri Secretary of State.
  15. ^ Otterbein, Holly (January 6, 2023). "The first Democrat emerges to take on Josh Hawley". POLITICO. Retrieved January 6, 2023.
  16. ^ "SOS, Missouri - Elections: Offices Filed in Candidate Filing". s1.sos.mo.gov. Retrieved March 27, 2024.
  17. ^ Southey, Stephanie (January 16, 2023). "Columbia activist announces bid for U.S. Senate". KOMU-TV. Retrieved January 16, 2023.
  18. ^ Rosenbaum, Jason (July 9, 2023). "Democratic state Sen. Karla May will enter Missouri's U.S. Senate contest". St. Louis Public Radio. Retrieved July 9, 2023.
  19. ^ "Wesley Bell announces run against Cori Bush for Congress". ksdk.com. October 30, 2023. Retrieved October 30, 2023.
  20. ^ a b c d e f g h Holleman, Joe (June 13, 2023). "Lucas Kunce boasts endorsements from some prominent St. Louis pols". St. Louis Post Dispatch. Retrieved June 13, 2023.
  21. ^ Kander, Jason (December 12, 2023). "Josh Hawley is vulnerable in next year's Senate election. Even Donald Trump knows it". Kansas City Star. Retrieved December 12, 2023.
  22. ^ Holleman, Joe (March 30, 2023). "Former Missouri lieutenant governor endorses Lucas Kunce for US Senate". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved March 30, 2023.
  23. ^ Drebes, Dave (June 13, 2023). "MOScout Daily Update: Sensible Missouri, Schmitt Speech, AirBnB Lobbyist, Kunce Endorsements, Lovasco Hits SCCRCC and more". MOScout. Retrieved June 29, 2023.
  24. ^ Rowden, Tim (June 19, 2023). "Missouri AFL-CIO backs Lucas Kunce for U.S. Senate". The Labor Tribune. Retrieved June 19, 2023.
  25. ^ Holleman, Joe (August 29, 2023). "Lucas Kunce fires up St. Louis-area crowd, including local politicians". St. Louis Post Dispatch. Retrieved September 19, 2023.
  26. ^ Drebes, Dave (June 28, 2023). "MOScout Daily Update: Parson to Swing Budget Axe? Massage Tax IP? Wood Retires (Again), Nixa's Book Challenge Committee, and more". MoScout. Retrieved June 28, 2023.
  27. ^ a b Rosenbaum, Jason (July 20, 2023). "Missouri Democrats debate whether U.S. Senate primary is a help or hindrance". St. Louis Public Radio. Retrieved July 20, 2023.
  28. ^ Holleman, Joe (June 15, 2023). "St. Louis County councilwoman backs Lucas Kunce in U.S. Senate race". St. Louis Post Dispatch. Retrieved June 19, 2023.
  29. ^ Holleman, Joe (October 30, 2023). "Lucas Kunce's US Senate bid gets more St. Louis County Council support". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved November 16, 2023.
  30. ^ Drebes, Dave (May 12, 2023). "MOScout Daily Update: Final Day of Session, New PAC, White for Kunce, and more". MOScout. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
  31. ^ Krull, Ryan (June 7, 2023). "MISSOURI NEWS: Missouri Senate Race Could Draw Big Money, National Attention". Riverfront Times. Retrieved June 10, 2023.
  32. ^ a b Rosenbaum, Jason (June 7, 2023). "St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Bell announces U.S. Senate run". KWMU St. Louis Public Radio. Retrieved June 10, 2023.
  33. ^ a b Swift, Jim (March 14, 2023). "Challenger to Hawley: Quit Your 'Fake Populism'". The Bulwark. Retrieved March 30, 2023.
  34. ^ Kurtz, Josh (July 10, 2024). "Dunn's new PAC backs 10 Democratic Senate candidates, including Alsobrooks". Maryland Matters. Maryland Matters. Retrieved July 11, 2024.
  35. ^ a b Klein, Howie (January 6, 2023). "January 6— Lucas Kunce Launches His Campaign For Senate. What Better Day To Start The Process Of Removing Insurrectionist Josh Hawley?". Blue America PAC. Retrieved March 30, 2023.
  36. ^ Drebes, Dave (January 19, 2024). "MOScout Daily Update: Senate Sickness, Trump Contra Roe, Pro-Choice Campaign Raises Over $1M, Burly's $400K, Kunce Chugs Along, and More". MOScout. Retrieved January 21, 2024.
  37. ^ a b "Three unions endorse 'warrior for working people' Lucas Kunce for U.S. Senate". The Labor Tribune. April 10, 2023. Retrieved April 10, 2023.
  38. ^ Drebes, David (May 5, 2023). "MOScout Daily Update: Gardner Resigns, Brattin Protests, KC Building Trades for Kunce and more". MOScout. Retrieved May 8, 2023.
  39. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k "Missouri Fire Fighters endorse Lucas Kunce for U.S. Senate". The Labor Tribune. June 5, 2023. Retrieved June 5, 2023.
  40. ^ Drebes, Dave (May 25, 2023). "MOScout Daily Update: Chrismer in Senate '23, Keller to Lead Pro-Richey PAC, Club For Growth Coming, Kunce Gets Fire Fighters, and More". MOScout. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
  41. ^ PFEM 2665 (@pfem2665) (August 30, 2023). "On Monday night members of @PFEM2665 continued our strong tradition of political action as we rallied for US Senate candidate @LucasKunceMO alongside @iaffdist2 VP Mark Woolbright. Thanks for leading the charge, brothers and sisters!". Twitter. Retrieved September 19, 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  42. ^ "Insulators Local 1 endorses Lucas Kunce for Senate". Sun Times News Online. March 30, 2023. Retrieved April 11, 2023.
  43. ^ Rowden, Tim (September 8, 2023). "Labor, local political leaders rally behind Lucas Kunce for U.S. Senate". Retrieved June 5, 2024.
  44. ^ Drebes, David (April 23, 2023). "MOScout Daily Update: Big Bill Pile-up Comind, MATA's GOP Picks?, Kunce's Stride Toward Nomination, and more". MOScout. Retrieved April 23, 2023.
  45. ^ Hollemann, Joe (June 7, 2023). "Kunce secures major labor endorsement in Missouri race for US Senate". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved June 7, 2023.
  46. ^ Holleman, Joe (June 26, 2023). "St. Louis County Council chair endorses Lucas Kunce over Wesley Bell". St. Louis Post Dispatch. Retrieved June 26, 2023.
  47. ^ Youngblood, Kaitlin (October 11, 2023). "SEIU Missouri/Kansas State Council Announces Endorsement of Lucas Kunce for U.S. Senate". SEIU Healthcare. Retrieved October 16, 2023.
  48. ^ "UFCW 655 endorses Lucas Kunce for U.S. Senate". The Labor Tribune. May 22, 2023. Retrieved May 22, 2023.
  49. ^ "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Lucas Kunce for U.S. Senate". End Citizens United | We the People, Not "We the Wealthy". January 10, 2024. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  50. ^ Drebes, Dave (November 17, 2023). "MOScout Daily Update: Firefighters for Bailey, Imagining the Rowden Campaign, Marijuana Drama, and More - Kunce Nabs Freedom Inc". MOScout. Retrieved November 29, 2023.
  51. ^ Indivisible St. Louis (April 10, 2023). "We're starting to see some serious MO-mentum, Deborah! [...] Lucas Kunce is ready to stand up and serve Missourians in the U.S. Senate. So, if you're ready to elect a real warrior for working people to Missouri's U.S. Senate seat, will you chip in $10 or ANY amount to our grassroots campaign today?". Facebook. Retrieved April 10, 2023.
  52. ^ "Lucas Kunce". JStreetPAC. Retrieved August 4, 2023.
  53. ^ Holleman, Joe (September 22, 2023). "Lucas Kunce gets endorsement from national conservation group". STLtoday.com. Archived from the original on September 22, 2023. Retrieved September 22, 2023.
  54. ^ "VoteVets endorsing Josh Hawley's challenger Lucas Kunce in Missouri Senate race". June 6, 2024.
  55. ^ Rosenbaum, Jason (July 9, 2023). "Democratic Sen. Karla May promises to bring fight to Hawley". St. Louis Public Radio. Retrieved October 3, 2023.
  56. ^ Palermo, Gregg (August 31, 2023). "Notebook: What Illinois voters think of a Pritzker presidential bid; Kunce rallies in St. Louis". Spectrum News Local. Retrieved September 19, 2023.
  57. ^ a b Maxwell, Mark (June 28, 2023). "North St. Louis County mayors, Kansas City prosecutor back Wesley Bell's bid for U.S. Senate". KSDK 5. Retrieved June 29, 2023.
  58. ^ Bayless, Kacen (June 28, 2023). "Jean Peters Baker endorses STL County prosecutor Bell's campaign against Josh Hawley". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved June 29, 2023.
  59. ^ Holleman, Joe (August 31, 2023). "Joplin businessman running as independent for US Senate in Missouri". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved September 2, 2023.
  60. ^ a b "UNOFFICIAL Candidate Filing List". Missouri Secretary of State. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
  61. ^ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
  62. ^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
  63. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2024". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved August 5, 2024.
  64. ^ "2024 Senate Forecast". Split Ticket. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  65. ^ "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  66. ^ "Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker throws his weight behind Missouri's Josh Hawley for Senate". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved October 12, 2024.
  67. ^ "Missouri Farm Bureau PAC Endorses Josh Hawley for U.S. Senate". MOFB.org. Retrieved October 24, 2024.
  68. ^ Martinez, Crystal (October 22, 2024). "Lucas Kunce campaigns with Adam Kinzinger in Kansas City". Yahoo News. Retrieved October 24, 2024.
  69. ^ "Suppoissrt our Action Fund-endorsed candidates". Planned Parenthood Action Fund. Planned Parenthood Action Fund, Inc. Retrieved September 28, 2024.
  70. ^ "Lucas Kunce for United States Senate". Kansas City Star. Kansas City Star. Retrieved October 24, 2024.
  71. ^ "Lucas Kunce for United States Senate". St. Louis Today. St Louis Dispatch. Retrieved October 24, 2024.
  72. ^ Falcon, Hannah (October 24, 2024). "Kunce, Hawley both receive endorsements from farmers in U.S. Senate race". KYTV. Retrieved October 24, 2024.
  73. ^ Barmeier, Elizabeth (October 18, 2024). "Andy Cohen campaigns for Lucas Kunce Friday in St. Louis as they visit firefighter, paramedics". Spectrum News. Maryland Heights. Retrieved October 24, 2024.
  74. ^ Szuch, Susan (August 19, 2024). "MSU alum, award-winning actor John Goodman voices campaign ad for Lucas Kunce". Springfield News-Leader. Retrieved August 24, 2024.
  75. ^ McGee, Jack. "Former U.S. Sen. John Danforth making a 'statement' with endorsement of Jared Young". Springfield Daily Citizen. Retrieved October 21, 2024.
[edit]
Official campaign websites
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