2024 United States presidential election in West Virginia
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| Elections in West Virginia |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in West Virginia took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. West Virginia voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of West Virginia has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost one congressional seat.[1]
Republican Donald Trump easily won West Virginia a third time in 2024, with a 41.9% margin of victory and just under 70% of the vote. Having been Trump's strongest state in 2016 and his second-strongest state in 2020, another strong Republican win was near-guaranteed in West Virginia.[2]
Despite being a Democratic stronghold for much of the 20th century, West Virginia — as a rural Southern state in the heart of Appalachia and largely within the Bible Belt — has trended dramatically towards the Republican Party in the 21st century. The last Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state was fellow Southerner Bill Clinton, who did so comfortably in his 1992 and 1996 victories. However, due to the increasingly liberal policies adopted by the Democratic Party — especially environmentalist policies — Republicans have rapidly gained traction among West Virginians, and carried the state in every presidential election since 2000, by consistently increasing margins. No Democratic presidential nominee has won even 40% of the state's vote since Barack Obama in 2008, or 30% since Obama's 2012 re-election. This marks the fourth presidential election, both consecutively and ever, in which the Republican won every county in West Virginia.
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]The West Virginia Democratic presidential primary was held on May 14, 2024, alongside the Maryland and Nebraska primaries. 25 delegates (20 pledged and 5 unpledged) to the Democratic National Convention were allocated to presidential candidates.[3]
Four candidates have been certified to appear on the primary ballot:[4]
- Joe Biden
- Stephen Lyons
- Armando Perez-Serrato
- Dean Phillips
Results
[edit]| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 68,164 | 70.5% | 20 | 20 | |
| Jason Palmer | 11,079 | 11.5% | |||
| Stephen Lyons (withdrawn) | 7,371 | 7.6% | |||
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 7,222 | 7.5% | |||
| Armando Perez-Serrato | 2,786 | 2.9% | |||
| Total: | 96,622 | 100.0% | 20 | 5 | 25 |
Republican primary
[edit]The West Virginia Republican presidential primary was held on May 14, 2024, alongside the Maryland and Nebraska primaries. 31 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention were allocated on a winner-take-all basis.[6]
Five candidates have been certified to appear on the primary ballot:[4]
- Ryan Binkley
- Nikki Haley
- David Stuckenberg
- Rachel Swift
- Donald Trump
Results
[edit]| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 199,497 | 88.4% | 32 | 32 | |
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 21,231 | 9.4% | |||
| Rachel Swift | 2,326 | 1.0% | |||
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 1,481 | 0.7% | |||
| David Stuckenberg | 1,168 | 0.5% | |||
| Total: | 225,703 | 100.0% | 32 | 32 | |
Mountain primary
[edit]The Mountain primary (the state's Green Party affiliate) is scheduled to be held on May 14, 2024.
Only one candidate was certified to appear on the primary ballot,[4] who will receive all 4 of the state's pledged delegates:[8]
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[9] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[10] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] | Safe R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[12] | Safe R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[13] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[14] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[15] | Safe R | June 12, 2024 |
| 538[16] | Solid R | June 11, 2024 |
| RCP[17] | Solid R | June 26, 2024 |
| NBC News[18] | Safe R | October 6, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research America[19][A] | August 21–27, 2024 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 61% | 34% | 5% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[20][B] | April 13–21, 2024 | 383 (LV) | – | 63% | 31% | 6% |
| Emerson College[21] | October 1–4, 2023 | 539 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 59% | 23% | 18% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jill Stein Mountain |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaplan Strategies[22] | June 4, 2024 | 464 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 55% | 28% | 2% | 15% |
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[20][B] | April 13–21, 2024 | 383 (LV) | – | 58% | 30% | 12% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[20][B] | April 13–21, 2024 | 383 (LV) | – | 54% | 29% | 17% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 533,556 | 69.98 | +1.36% | ||
| Democratic | 214,309 | 28.11 | −1.58% | ||
| Independent |
|
8,947 | 1.17 | N/A | |
| Libertarian | 3,047 | 0.40 | −0.94% | ||
| Mountain | 2,531 | 0.33 | –0.03 | ||
| Write-in | |||||
| Total votes | 752,246 | 100.0 | |||
By congressional district
[edit]Trump won both congressional districts.[24]
| District | Trump | Harris | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 71% | 27% | Carol Miller |
| 2nd | 69% | 29% | Alex Mooney (118th Congress) |
| Riley Moore (119th Congress) |
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in West Virginia
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]Partisan clients
- ^ Poll sponsored by West Virginia MetroNews
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
References
[edit]- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Senate Election Interactive Map - 270toWin". 270toWin.com. Retrieved July 15, 2024.
- ^ "West Virginia Democratic Delegation 2024". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved February 4, 2024.
- ^ a b c "Who is running for election in West Virginia?". ballotpedia.org. February 4, 2024. Retrieved February 4, 2024.
- ^ "West Virginia Presidential Primary". AP News. June 24, 2024. Retrieved July 30, 2024.
- ^ "West Virginia Republican Presidential Nominating Process". thegreenpapers.com. October 13, 2023. Retrieved November 18, 2023.
- ^ "West Virginia Presidential Primary". AP News. June 24, 2024. Retrieved July 30, 2024.
- ^ "Apportionment of GPUS National Committee 2023 and GPUS Presidential Nominating Convention 2024". GPUS National Committee. Retrieved February 3, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
- ^ McElhinny, Brad (August 30, 2024). "West Virginia Poll: solid leads for Morrisey and Justice in upcoming election". West Virginia MetroNews.
- ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (October 13, 2023). "West Virginia 2024 Poll: Sen. Manchin Faces Uphill Battle Against Gov. Justice, but Leads Rep. Mooney". Emerson Polling.
- ^ "WEST VIRGINIA Poll - Kaplan Strategies" (PDF). Kaplan Strategies. June 6, 2024.
- ^ https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/WV/122766/web.345435/#/detail/100
- ^ https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/WV/122766/web.345435/#/detail/100
