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2014 United States Senate election in West Virginia

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2014 United States Senate election in West Virginia
← 2008 November 4, 2014 2020 →
 
Nominee Shelley Moore Capito Natalie Tennant
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 281,820 156,360
Percentage 62.12% 34.47%
Moore Capito:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
U.S. senator before election

Jay Rockefeller
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Shelley Moore Capito
Republican

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The 2014 United States Senate election in West Virginia was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of West Virginia, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. This election was the fifth consecutive even-number year in which a senate election was held in West Virginia after elections in 2006, 2008, 2010, and 2012.

Incumbent Democratic senator Jay Rockefeller decided to retire rather than run for reelection for a sixth term. The Democrats nominated Secretary of State of West Virginia Natalie Tennant and the Republicans nominated U.S. Representative Shelley Moore Capito. It was the thirteenth U.S. Senate election that involved two major party female nominees in U.S. history.[1]

Capito defeated Tennant and became the first female senator elected in West Virginia's history as well as the first Republican elected to the Senate from West Virginia since 1956, and their victory in this seat since 1942.[2] The results of this election were a near complete flip from 2008, in which Democrat Jay Rockefeller received 64% of the vote. This was the first open-seat non-special election since 1984.

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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Withdrew

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  • Sheirl Fletcher, former Republican State Delegate and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008, 2010 and 2012[6]

Declined

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Endorsements

[edit]
Natalie Tennant

Individuals

Organizations

Newspapers

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Sheirl
Fletcher 		David
Harless 		Natalie
Tennant 		David
Wamsley 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[36] September 19–22, 2013 600 ± 4% 8% 3% 51% 4% — 34%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ralph
Baxter 		Robin
Davis 		Nick
Preservati 		Natalie
Tennant 		Other Undecided
MBE Research[37] May 1–2, 2013 207 1% 12% 1% 40% — 38%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Robin
Davis 		Carte
Goodwin 		Nick
Rahall 		Other Undecided
Harper Polling[38] January 21, 2013 579 ± 4.07% 17% 8% 38% — 37%

Results

[edit]
Results by county
  Tennant
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Democratic primary results[39]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Natalie Tennant 104,598 77.95%
Democratic Dennis Melton 15,817 11.79%
Democratic David Wamsley 13,773 10.26%
Total votes 134,188 100.00%

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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Withdrew

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  • Rick LeMasters, retired Marine officer and state employee[5][6]
  • Pat McGeehan, former state delegate and former Air Force Intelligence Officer and Captain (running for House of Delegates)[41]
  • Scott Regan, Democratic candidate for the state senate in 2010[5][6]
  • Edwin Vanover, former Bramwell Police Chief and Democratic candidate for the House of Delegates in 2012[6][42]

Declined

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Endorsements

[edit]
Shelley Moore Capito

Politicians

Organizations

Newspapers

Individuals

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Shelley
Moore Capito 		Rick
Lemasters 		Pat
McGeehan 		Patrick
Morrisey 		Scott
Regan 		Edwin
Vanover 		Undecided
Harper Polling[38] January 21, 2013 462 ± 4.56% 73% — — 10% — — 18%
Public Policy Polling[36] September 19–22, 2013 348 ± 5.3% 72% 5% 4% — 1% 2% 17%
Harper Polling[50] September 24–25, 2013 354 ± 5.21% 77% — 7% — — — 16%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Shelley
Moore Capito 		Someone more
conservative 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[36] September 19–22, 2013 348 ± 5.3% 65% 21% 14%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Shelley
Moore Capito 		David
McKinley 		Undecided
Harper Polling[38] January 21, 2013 462 ± 4.56% 70.5% 14.75% 14.75%

Results

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Republican primary results[39]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Shelley Moore Capito 74,655 87.50%
Republican Matthew Dodrill 7,072 8.29%
Republican Larry Butcher 3,595 4.21%
Total votes 85,322 100.00%

Independents and third parties

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Candidates

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Declared

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Withdrawn

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General election

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Debates

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A televised debate between Tennant and Capito was held on October 7 in Charleston.[55]

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[56] Likely R (flip) November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[57] Safe R (flip) November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[58] Safe R (flip) November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[59] Likely R (flip) November 3, 2014

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Natalie
Tennant (D) 		Shelley Moore
Capito (R) 		Other Undecided
West Virginia Poll[60] August 15–22, 2013 400 ± 4.9% 40% 45% — 15%
Public Policy Polling[36] September 19–22, 2013 1,110 ± 2.9% 36% 50% — 14%
Harper Polling[50] September 24–25, 2013 640 ± 3.87% 34% 51% — 15%
Clarity Campaigns[61] January 29–30, 2014 1,727 ± 2.35% 39% 45% — 16%
Rasmussen Reports[62] February 19–20, 2014 500 ± 4.5% 35% 49% 4% 12%
Vox Populi Polling[63] April 16–17, 2014 571 ± 4.1% 33% 49% — 19%
Rasmussen Reports[62] May 14–15, 2014 750 ± 4% 39% 48% 5% 9%
West Virginia Poll[64] May 19–22, 2014 400 ± 4.9% 38% 49% — 13%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[65] July 5–24, 2014 1,750 ± 2.7% 40% 47% 1% 11%
Rasmussen Reports[62] August 19–20, 2014 750 ± 4% 33% 50% — 17%
West Virginia Poll[66] August 15–23, 2014 401 ± 4.9% 37% 54% — 9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[67] August 18 – September 2, 2014 1,284 ± 4% 32% 55% 1% 12%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[68] September 20 – October 1, 2014 1,066 ± 4% 33% 56% 1% 9%
Rasmussen Reports[62] September 30 – October 1, 2014 750 ± 4% 39% 50% 3% 8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[68] October 16–23, 2014 877 ± 5% 34% 56% 0% 10%
Hypothetical polling

With Davis

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Robin
Davis (D) 		Shelley Moore
Capito (R) 		Other Undecided
Harper Polling[69] January 21, 2013 1,444 ± 2.58% 24% 51% — 25%
MBE Research[37] May 1–2, 2013 406 ± 4.87% 32% 51% — 18%

With Fletcher

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Sheirl
Fletcher (D) 		Shelley Moore
Capito (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[36] September 19–22, 2013 1,110 ± 2.9% 26% 54% — 20%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Sheirl
Fletcher (D) 		Pat
McGeehan (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[36] September 19–22, 2013 1,110 ± 2.9% 24% 27% — 48%

With Goodwin

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Carte
Goodwin (D) 		Shelley Moore
Capito (R) 		Other Undecided
Harper Polling[69] January 21, 2013 1,444 ± 2.58% 19% 53% — 28%

With Rahall

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Nick
Rahall (D) 		Shelley Moore
Capito (R) 		Other Undecided
Harper Polling[69] January 21, 2013 1,444 ± 2.58% 32% 50% — 18%

With Rockefeller

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jay
Rockefeller (D) 		Shelley Moore
Capito (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[70] September 30 – October 2, 2011 932 ± 3.2% 44% 48% — 7%
Repass & Partners[71] August 22–25, 2012 401 ± 4.9% 44% 48% — 8%

With Tennant

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Natalie
Tennant (D) 		Pat
McGeehan (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[36] September 19–22, 2013 1,110 ± 2.9% 42% 32% — 26%

Results

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2014 United States Senate election in West Virginia[72]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Shelley Moore Capito 281,820 62.12% +25.86%
Democratic Natalie Tennant 156,360 34.47% −29.27%
Libertarian John Buckley 7,409 1.63% N/A
Mountain Bob Henry Baber 5,504 1.21% N/A
Constitution Phil Hudok 2,566 0.57% N/A
Total votes 453,659 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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By congressional district

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Capito won all three congressional districts.[73]

District Capito Tennant Representative
1st 62.19% 33.92% David McKinley
2nd 63.13% 33.72% Alex Mooney
3rd 60.94% 35.86% Evan Jenkins

See also

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References

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  1. ^ Ostermeier, Eric (September 17, 2013). "West Virginia 2014 US Senate Race to Feature Rare Matchup". Smart Politics.
  2. ^ "Republican Shelley Moore Capito Wins Senate Seat in WV". ABC News. November 4, 2014.
  3. ^ a b c Boucher, Dave (January 25, 2014). "No surprises in U.S. Senate race". Charleston Gazette-Mail. Retrieved January 25, 2014.
  4. ^ Boucher, Dave (September 15, 2013). "Confirmed: Tennant announces Senate run Tuesday". Charleston Daily Mail. Retrieved September 15, 2013.[permanent dead link‍]
  5. ^ a b c d e Messina, Lawrence (July 14, 2013). "2014 field growing in W.Va. federal races". Charleston Daily Mail. Archived from the original on July 25, 2013. Retrieved July 25, 2012.
  6. ^ a b c d "Candidate listing by office". West Virginia Secretary of State. February 16, 2014. Retrieved February 16, 2014.
  7. ^ "Preservati out of Senate race". WV Metro News. June 3, 2013. Retrieved June 4, 2013.
  8. ^ "West Virginia: Caperton Says He Is Not Interested in Senate Seat". Roll Call. January 15, 2013. Archived from the original on January 27, 2013. Retrieved February 26, 2013.
  9. ^ Ry Rivard [@ryrivard] (November 27, 2012). "Fmr WV D Chair & #WV02 candidate Mike Callaghan (in email my inbox ate Monday) = interested in Senate if Jay doesn't run & House if Jay does" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  10. ^ Boucher, Dave (April 30, 2013). "Nick Casey launches 2014 US House run". Charleston Daily Mail. Archived from the original on May 7, 2013. Retrieved May 12, 2013.
  11. ^ "Another Democrat passes on West Virginia Senate race". Washington Post. July 17, 2013. Retrieved July 17, 2013.
  12. ^ Ali, Ann (November 8, 2013). "WV Auditor Glen Gainer announces run for Congress". State Journal. Archived from the original on December 17, 2013. Retrieved December 9, 2013.
  13. ^ Kercheval, Hoppy (February 19, 2013). "2014 U.S. Senate race update". WVMetroNews.com. Retrieved February 20, 2013.
  14. ^ Wilson, Reid (February 20, 2013). "Carte Goodwin out for 2014". WVMetroNews.com. Retrieved February 20, 2013.
  15. ^ a b "Nationwide, Republicans' Congressional Prospects Looking Bright for 2014". Sunshine State News. January 12, 2013. Archived from the original on January 14, 2013. Retrieved May 5, 2013.
  16. ^ a b Livingston, Abby (January 11, 2013). "West Virginia: Democrats Begin Positioning to Run for Rockefeller's Seat". Roll Call. Archived from the original on January 13, 2013. Retrieved January 12, 2013.
  17. ^ a b c d e f g Nyden, Paul J. (September 17, 2013). "Tennant announces run for Senate". The Charleston Gazette. Retrieved December 9, 2013.
  18. ^ Harold, Zack (June 3, 2013). "Preservati Out of the 2014 U.S. Senate Race". Charleston Daily Mail. Archived from the original on June 28, 2013. Retrieved June 26, 2013.
  19. ^ Livingston, Abby (April 30, 2013). "Rahall Forgoes Senate Run". Roll Call. Archived from the original on May 3, 2013. Retrieved May 1, 2013.
  20. ^ "West Virginia Democratic Sen. Jay Rockefeller won't run in 2014 - John Bresnahan". Politico.com. January 11, 2013. Retrieved January 11, 2013.
  21. ^ "Allen Tackett not running for Jay Rockefeller's US Senate seat". Charleston Daily Mail. July 29, 2013. Archived from the original on August 1, 2013. Retrieved July 29, 2013.
  22. ^ a b "Rockefeller to retire, giving GOP a prime pickup opportunity". The Hill. January 11, 2013. Retrieved February 16, 2013.
  23. ^ "West Virginia Senate: Democrats Look for Winner". rothenbergpoliticalreport.com. January 15, 2013. Retrieved January 17, 2013.
  24. ^ "State Sen. Erik Wells says he won't run for Congress". Charleston Daily Mail. April 26, 2013. Archived from the original on May 15, 2013. Retrieved July 17, 2013.
  25. ^ a b Mattise, Jonathan (June 23, 2014). "Sen. Elizabeth Warren to campaign for Tennant in W.V". The Charleston Gazette. Archived from the original on September 18, 2014. Retrieved June 23, 2014.
  26. ^ Boucher, Dave (November 19, 2013). "Michelle Obama backs Natalie Tennant in US Senate race". Charleston Daily Mail. Archived from the original on December 12, 2013. Retrieved December 9, 2013.
  27. ^ Harold, Zack (November 26, 2013). "Tennant, Gainer, Rahall get early endorsements from AFT". Charleston Daily Mail. Archived from the original on December 12, 2013. Retrieved December 9, 2013.
  28. ^ "Natalie Tennant (D-WV) for Senate". Council for a Livable World. Archived from the original on December 16, 2013. Retrieved December 9, 2013.
  29. ^ "Natalie Tennant". Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Archived from the original on June 22, 2014. Retrieved June 12, 2014.
  30. ^ Jaffe, Alexandra (September 26, 2013). "EMILY's List endorses Tennant for W.Va. Senate". The Hill. Retrieved December 9, 2013.
  31. ^ "The IADLC is proud to officially endorse..." Facebook. November 19, 2013. Retrieved December 9, 2013.
  32. ^ Cama, Timothy (September 2, 2014). "Miners union backs Dem in W.Va. Senate race". The Hill. Retrieved September 23, 2015.
  33. ^ "2014 Primary Election COPE Endorsements" (PDF). West Virginia AFL-CIO. 2014. Retrieved June 12, 2014.[permanent dead link‍]
  34. ^ a b "ICYMI: WEST VIRGINIA'S LARGEST NEWSPAPER ENDORSES TENNANT" (PDF). West Virginia Democrats. April 21, 2014. Archived from the original (PDF) on June 17, 2014. Retrieved June 11, 2014.
  35. ^ "Natalie Tennant U.S. Senate, WV". Women's Political Committee. 2014. Retrieved June 12, 2014.[permanent dead link‍]
  36. ^ a b c d e f g Public Policy Polling
  37. ^ a b MBE Research
  38. ^ a b c Harper Polling Archived February 10, 2013, at the Wayback Machine
  39. ^ a b "Statewide Results Primary Election - May 13, 2014 ★★★ Official Results ★★★". West Virginia Secretary of State. Retrieved July 17, 2014.
  40. ^ "Capito Will Challenge Rockefeller". Politicalwire.com. November 25, 2012. Archived from the original on November 29, 2012. Retrieved January 11, 2013.
  41. ^ "Elections - Candidate Detail". West Virginia Secretary of State. January 25, 2014. Retrieved January 25, 2014.
  42. ^ Johnson, Shauna (August 10, 2013). "Tennant for U.S. Senate?". West Virginia MetroNews. Retrieved August 12, 2013.
  43. ^ "Former candidate Maloney not running for anything, launches think tank". The Charleston Gazette. May 30, 2013. Archived from the original on February 4, 2016. Retrieved August 28, 2013.
  44. ^ Livingston, Abby (February 25, 2013). "West Virginia: McKinley Opts Not to Run Against Capito". Roll Call. Archived from the original on March 3, 2013. Retrieved February 26, 2013.
  45. ^ "Capito Gets an Early Start on 2014 W.Va. Senate Race : Roll Call Politics". Rollcall.com. November 26, 2012. Retrieved January 11, 2013.
  46. ^ a b Twitter / CapitoforWV: Great to see County Commissioner
  47. ^ [1] Archived October 24, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
  48. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m "Endorsements for Shelley Moore Capito - Capito for Senate". Archived from the original on October 24, 2014. Retrieved August 28, 2013.
  49. ^ Donald J. Trump [@realDonaldTrump] (July 30, 2014). "It's time for Mountain State to have a Senator who will stop Obama's war on coal. This November send DC a message, vote for @CapitoforWV!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  50. ^ a b Harper Polling
  51. ^ "Mountain Party candidate makes 4 in Senate race". The Charleston Gazette. July 31, 2014. Archived from the original on August 10, 2014. Retrieved August 2, 2014.
  52. ^ Cardosi, Mandi (June 12, 2014). "5 questions with Libertarian candidate for U.S. Senate John Buckley". State Journal. Archived from the original on July 15, 2014. Retrieved June 14, 2014.
  53. ^ Winger, Richard (August 22, 2014). "West Virginia Secretary of State Says Constitution Party Petition for U.S. Senate is Valid". Ballot Access News. Archived from the original on September 3, 2014. Retrieved August 28, 2014.
  54. ^ Boucher, Dave (April 25, 2013). "Former TV anchor to run for Senate". Charleston Daily Mail. Archived from the original on April 29, 2013. Retrieved May 12, 2013.
    "Facebook profile". Facebook.
  55. ^ "Capito, Tennant, others to debate in October". West Virginia MetroNews. August 14, 2014. Retrieved August 14, 2014.
  56. ^ "2014 Senate Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  57. ^ "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 3, 2014. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  58. ^ "2014 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  59. ^ "2014 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2014". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  60. ^ West Virginia Poll
  61. ^ Clarity Campaigns Archived February 23, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
  62. ^ a b c d Rasmussen Reports
  63. ^ Vox Populi Polling
  64. ^ West Virginia Poll
  65. ^ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  66. ^ West Virginia Poll Archived August 31, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
  67. ^ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  68. ^ a b CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  69. ^ a b c Harper Polling
  70. ^ Public Policy Polling
  71. ^ Repass & Partners
  72. ^ "WV SOS - Elections - Election Results - Online Data Services". services.sos.wv.gov. Archived from the original on November 7, 2017. Retrieved December 17, 2014.
  73. ^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
[edit]

Official campaign websites (archived)

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