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2014 New Hampshire gubernatorial election

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2014 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
← 2012 November 4, 2014 (2014-11-04) 2016 →
 
Nominee Maggie Hassan Walt Havenstein
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 254,666 229,610
Percentage 52.37% 47.43%
Hassan:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      >90%
Havenstein:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Governor before election

Maggie Hassan
Democratic

Elected Governor

Maggie Hassan
Democratic

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The 2014 New Hampshire gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor of New Hampshire, concurrently with the election to New Hampshire's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic governor Maggie Hassan ran for re-election to a second term in office. She defeated the Republican nominee, businessman Walt Havenstein. As of 2023, this is the last time a Democrat was elected Governor of New Hampshire.

Background

[edit]

Incumbent Democratic governor John Lynch decided to retire in 2012, rather than seek re-election to a fifth term in office. The Democratic nominee, former State Senate Majority Leader Maggie Hassan, defeated the Republican nominee, attorney and 1996 gubernatorial nominee Ovide M. Lamontagne, 55% to 43%.

New Hampshire and Vermont are the only states in the country whose governors are elected every two years. On only one occasion since 1924 has a first-term governor of New Hampshire been defeated for re-election to a second term: in 2004, when Lynch beat incumbent Republican governor Craig Benson.[1][2]

Hassan had high approval ratings. An April 2014 WMUR/University of New Hampshire poll found that 57% of registered voters approved of the job she was doing, 58% had a favorable opinion of her, and 70% thought the state was going in the right direction.[3] For these reasons, Hassan was not considered vulnerable going into the election. The Cook Political Report,[4] Daily Kos Elections,[5] Governing[6] and Sabato's Crystal Ball[7] all considered the race "likely Democratic" and RealClearPolitics[8] and The Rothenberg Political Report rated the race "safe Democratic".[9]

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]
  • Ian Freeman, radio show host[10]
  • Maggie Hassan, incumbent governor[11]
  • Clecia Terrio, candidate for the State House in 2012[12]

Hassan won the Democratic Party primary, held on September 9, 2014, with 94.3% of the votes cast.[13]

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Havenstein won the Republican Party primary, held on September 9, 2014, with 55.6% of the votes cast.[13]

Declined

[edit]

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Bill
Binnie 		Ted
Gatsas 		Daniel
Greene 		Walt
Havenstein 		Andrew
Hemingway 		George
Lambert 		Chuck
Morse 		Jonathan
Smolin 		Other Undecided
Suffolk[34] June 14–18, 2014 419 ±4.8% — — 3.82% 12.89% 6.92% — — 1.67% — 74.7%
Vox Populi Polling[35] May 14–15, 2014 ? ±5.2% — — — 12% 12% — — — — 76%
Suffolk[36] Feb. 27–Mar. 5, 2014 426 ± ? 8.45% 15.02% — — 1.88% 1.88% 7.04% — — 65.72%

Results

[edit]
Republican primary results[37]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Walter Havenstein 62,766 55.7
Republican Andrew Hemingway 42,005 37.3
Republican Daniel Greene 5,362 4.8
Republican Jonathan Smolin 2,620 2.3
Total votes 112,753 100

General election

[edit]

Debates

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[38] Lean D November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[39] Lean D November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[40] Likely D November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[41] Tossup November 3, 2014

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Maggie
Hassan (D) 		Walt
Havenstein (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[42] November 1–3, 2014 1,690 ± 2.4% 51% 46% — 3%
WMUR/UNH[43] October 29–November 2, 2014 757 ± 3.6% 47% 43% 1% 9%
New England College[44] October 31–November 1, 2014 1,526 ± 2.51% 51% 44% 2% 3%
Rasmussen Reports[45] October 29–30, 2014 940 ± 3% 51% 42% — 7%
Vox Populi Polling[46] October 27–28, 2014 638 ± 3.9% 44% 47% — 7%
WMUR/UNH[47] October 19–22, 2014 555 ± 4.2% 52% 37% 1% 11%
American Research Group[48] October 19–22, 2014 600 ± 4% 48% 46% — 6%
New England College[49] October 24, 2014 1,132 ± 2.91% 47% 47% 2% 4%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[50] October 16–23, 2014 1,042 ± 4% 47% 38% 1% 13%
American Research Group[48] October 19–22, 2014 600 ± 4% 53% 43% — 4%
Public Policy Polling[51] October 20–21, 2014 764 ± ? 53% 43% — 4%
CNN/ORC[52] October 18–21, 2014 645 LV ± 4% 51% 45% — 4%
877 RV ± 3.5% 54% 40% — 5%
UMass Lowell[53] October 15–21, 2014 643 LV ± 4.5% 49% 45% — 7%
900 RV ± 3.8% 49% 40% — 11%
Suffolk/Boston Herald[54] October 16–19, 2014 500 ± ? 49% 39% — 11%
New England College[55] October 16, 2014 921 ± 3.23% 51% 43% 3% 4%
New England College[56] October 9, 2014 1,081 ± 2.98% 49% 44% 3% 5%
High Point University[57] October 4–8, 2014 824 ± 3.4% 50% 42% 4% 4%
WMUR/UNH[58] September 29–October 5, 2014 532 ± 4.2% 46% 36% 2% 16%
New England College[59] October 3, 2014 1,286 ± 2.73% 51% 41% 3% 4%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[60] September 20–October 1, 2014 1,260 ± 3% 49% 39% 0% 12%
New England College[61] September 26, 2014 1,331 ± 2.69% 48% 44% 3% 5%
American Research Group[48] September 27–29, 2014 600 ± 4% 55% 40% — 5%
New England College[62] September 19–20, 2014 1,494 ± 2.54% 52% 40% 4% 5%
Public Policy Polling[63] September 18–19, 2014 652 ± 3.8% 52% 43% — 4%
Vox Populi Polling[64] September 15–16, 2014 550 ± 4.2% 47% 43% — 10%
American Research Group[48] September 12–15, 2014 544 ± 4.2% 48% 40% — 12%
New England College[65] September 10–11, 2014 630 ± 3.98% 51% 36% 4% 9%
Rasmussen Reports[45] September 10–11, 2014 750 ± 4% 51% 40% 3% 6%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[66] August 18–September 2, 2014 1,159 ± 4% 51% 34% 3% 13%
WMUR/UNH[67] August 7–17, 2014 609 ± 4% 49% 32% 1% 18%
National Research/RGA[68] August 10–13, 2014 600 ± 4% 42% 37% 1% 18%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[69] July 5–24, 2014 1,246 ± 2.9% 53% 38% 2% 7%
WMUR/UNH[70] June 19–July 1, 2014 669 ± 3.8% 58% 29% 1% 10%
Suffolk/Boston Herald[71] June 14–18, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 51% 19% 3%[72] 28%
American Research Group[48] June 14–18, 2014 540 ± 4.2% 45% 32% — 23%
Vox Populi Polling[35] May 14–15, 2014 707 ± 3.6% 43% 30% — 27%
Rockefeller Center[73] April 21–25, 2014 412 ± 4.8% 40% 19% — 41%
WMUR/UNH[74] April 1–9, 2014 387 ± 5% 49% 19% 2% 30%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Maggie
Hassan (D) 		Bill
Binnie (R) 		Other Undecided
Suffolk/Boston Herald[75] Feb. 27–Mar. 5, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 55% 26% — 20%
Public Policy Polling[76] January 9–12, 2014 1,354 ± 2.7% 51% 31% — 18%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Maggie
Hassan (D) 		Jeb
Bradley (R) 		Other Undecided
New England College[77] May 2–5, 2013 807 ± 3.27% 55% 24% — 22%
Public Policy Polling[78] April 19–21, 2013 933 ± 3.2% 52% 38% — 10%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Maggie
Hassan (D) 		Brad
Cook (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[79] September 13–16, 2013 1,038 ± 3% 49% 34% — 17%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Maggie
Hassan (D) 		Ted
Gatsas (R) 		Other Undecided
WMUR/UNH[74] April 1–9, 2014 387 ± 5% 50% 27% 1% 23%
Suffolk/Boston Herald[75] Feb. 27–Mar. 5, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 53% 28% — 19%
WMUR/UNH[80] January 21–26, 2014 584 ± 4.1% 45% 34% 2% 19%
New England College[81] October 7–9, 2013 1,063 ± 3% 53% 25% — 22%
Public Policy Polling[78] April 19–21, 2013 933 ± 3.2% 51% 35% — 15%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Maggie
Hassan (D) 		Daniel
Greene (R) 		Other Undecided
Suffolk/Boston Herald[82] June 14–18, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 53% 13% 4%[72] 31%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Maggie
Hassan (D) 		Frank
Guinta (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[78] April 19–21, 2013 933 ± 3.2% 54% 36% — 9%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Maggie
Hassan (D) 		Andrew
Hemingway (R) 		Other Undecided
WMUR/UNH[67] August 7–17, 2014 609 ± 4% 51% 31% 1% 17%
WMUR/UNH[70] June 19–July 1, 2014 669 ± 3.8% 54% 28% 0% 18%
Suffolk/Boston Herald[83] June 14–18, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 51% 17% 3%[72] 29%
Vox Populi Polling[35] May 14–15, 2014 707 ± 3.6% 42% 31% — 27%
Hickman Analytics[84] April 24–30, 2014 400 ± 4.9% 50% 28% — 22%
Rockefeller Center[73] April 21–25, 2014 412 ± 4.8% 40% 20% — 40%
WMUR/UNH[74] April 1–9, 2014 387 ± 5% 49% 22% 1% 28%
American Research Group[48] March 13–16, 2014 533 ± 4.2% 45% 30% — 25%
Suffolk/Boston Herald[75] Feb. 27–Mar. 5, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 56% 23% — 21%
WMUR/UNH[80] January 21–26, 2014 584 ± 4.1% 48% 27% 2% 22%
Public Policy Polling[76] January 9–12, 2014 1,354 ± 2.7% 51% 25% — 23%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Maggie
Hassan (D) 		George
Lambert (R) 		Other Undecided
Suffolk/Boston Herald[75] Feb. 27–Mar. 5, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 55% 22% — 23%
Public Policy Polling[76] January 9–12, 2014 1,354 ± 2.7% 50% 26% — 23%
Public Policy Polling[79] September 13–16, 2013 1,038 ± 3% 49% 32% — 20%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Maggie
Hassan (D) 		Chuck
Morse (R) 		Other Undecided
Suffolk/Boston Herald[75] Feb. 27–Mar. 5, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 56% 23% — 21%
Public Policy Polling[76] January 9–12, 2014 1,354 ± 2.7% 50% 27% — 22%
Public Policy Polling[79] September 13–16, 2013 1,038 ± 3% 49% 33% — 18%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Maggie
Hassan (D) 		Andy
Sanborn (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[79] September 13–16, 2013 1,038 ± 3% 49% 32% — 19%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Maggie
Hassan (D) 		Kevin
Smith (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[78] April 19–21, 2013 933 ± 3.2% 52% 32% — 16%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Maggie
Hassan (D) 		Jonathan
Smolin (R) 		Other Undecided
Suffolk/Boston Herald[85] June 14–18, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 52% 15% 3%[72] 31%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Maggie
Hassan (D) 		Christopher T.
Sununu (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[78] April 19–21, 2013 933 ± 3.2% 53% 37% — 10%

Results

[edit]
2014 New Hampshire gubernatorial election[86]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Maggie Hassan (incumbent) 254,666 52.37% −2.24%
Republican Walt Havenstein 230,610 47.43% +4.91%
Write-in 976 0.20% +0.10%
Total votes 486,183 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that swung from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Hassan won both congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican.[87]

District Hassan Havenstein Representative
1st 50.86% 49.14% Frank Guinta
2nd 54.11% 45.89% Annie Kuster

References

[edit]
  1. ^ a b "Poll: Job approval ratings rise for Hassan". WMUR. July 31, 2013. Retrieved August 2, 2013.
  2. ^ Schweitzer, Sarah (November 4, 2004). "Defeated after 1 term, N.H. governor fades out". The Boston Globe. Retrieved on February 6, 2011.
  3. ^ "APPROVAL OF HASSAN AND LEGISLATURE REMAINS HIGH, MOST THINK NH IS ON RIGHT TRACK" (PDF). WMUR/UNH. October 24, 2013. Archived from the original (PDF) on February 21, 2014. Retrieved February 3, 2014.
  4. ^ "Ratings". Archived from the original on March 5, 2013. Retrieved September 6, 2013.
  5. ^ "Daily Kos Elections gubernatorial race ratings: Initial ratings for 2013-14". Retrieved November 22, 2013.
  6. ^ Jacobson, Louis (July 18, 2013). "Handicapping the 2013-2014 Governors Races: The Tossups". Governing.com. Archived from the original on October 14, 2014. Retrieved July 25, 2013.
  7. ^ "Ratings". Retrieved September 6, 2013.
  8. ^ "2014 Governors Races".
  9. ^ "Ratings". Retrieved September 6, 2013.
  10. ^ Dan Tuohy (June 12, 2014). "Liberty Activist, Free Stater Running for Governor as a Democrat". Salem Patch. Archived from the original on July 14, 2014. Retrieved July 1, 2014.
  11. ^ Mackin, Jean (May 30, 2014). "Gov. Hassan announces she is running for reelection". WMUR-TV. Retrieved June 11, 2014.
  12. ^ "OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF STATE - ELECTION DIVISION DEMOCRATIC CUMULATIVE FILING AS OF 07/22/2014". New Hampshire Secretary of State. July 22, 2014. Retrieved July 25, 2014.
  13. ^ a b "New Hampshire Gubernatorial Election, 2014". October 29, 2014. Retrieved October 31, 2014.
  14. ^ a b Tuohy, Dan (June 30, 2014). "Ballot Law Commission Confirms Havenstein Candidacy". Nashua Patch. Retrieved July 15, 2014.
  15. ^ John DiStaso (April 2, 2014). "Republican Walt Havenstein running for governor". New Hampshire Union Leader. Archived from the original on October 23, 2014. Retrieved April 2, 2014.
  16. ^ Ronayne, Kathleen (January 30, 2014). "Entrepreneur, political activist Andrew Hemingway to challenge Hassan for governor". Concord Monitor. Retrieved January 31, 2014.
  17. ^ Scott Conroy (July 1, 2014). "Andrew Hemingway: A Millennial Governor in N.H.?". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 2, 2014.
  18. ^ a b c d Pindell, James (September 10, 2013). "The list: which Republicans could run for major office next year". WMUR. Archived from the original on September 11, 2013. Retrieved September 10, 2013.
  19. ^ Pindell, James (September 3, 2013). "Bradley rules out running for statewide office next year". WMUR Political Scoop. Archived from the original on September 4, 2013. Retrieved September 3, 2013.
  20. ^ DiStaso, John (September 11, 2013). "John DiStaso's Granite Status: GOP Manchester attorney Brad Cook confirms eyeing a run for governor". New Hampshire Union Leader. Archived from the original on December 6, 2013. Retrieved September 11, 2013.
  21. ^ DiStaso, John (January 29, 2014). "Conservative activist Andrew Hemingway plans run for NH governor". New Hampshire Union Leader. Archived from the original on February 19, 2014. Retrieved February 2, 2014.
  22. ^ a b c Pindell, James (November 9, 2012). "Political Standing for Nov. 9, 2012". WMUR Political Scoop. Retrieved January 28, 2013.
  23. ^ Toeplitz, Shira (November 29, 2012). "New Hampshire: Guinta Opens Door to Senate, Comeback Bids". Roll Call. Archived from the original on January 29, 2013. Retrieved January 28, 2013.
  24. ^ Cahn, Emily (September 24, 2013). "Ex-Congressman Launches Rematch Bid With Bipartisan Tone". Roll Call. Archived from the original on September 25, 2013. Retrieved September 24, 2013.
  25. ^ "Former NH state GOP sen. Gary Lambert to announce House bid against Democrat Annie Kuster". Daily Journal. Associated Press. September 4, 2013. Archived from the original on September 4, 2013. Retrieved September 4, 2013.
  26. ^ Landrigan, Kevin (June 11, 2013). "Socially liberal, fiscally conservative Litchfield GOP Rep. Lambert may run for governor". Nashua Telegraph. Retrieved June 11, 2013.
  27. ^ Lessard, Ryan (April 15, 2013). "Ovide Lamontagne Takes Major Anti-Abortion Job In D.C." nhpr.org. Retrieved April 19, 2013.
  28. ^ Pindell, James (February 13, 2014). "NH Sen. Reagan being encouraged to run for governor". WMUR Political Scoop. Retrieved February 13, 2014.
  29. ^ John DiStaso (April 4, 2014). "NH State Sen. John Reagan (R) ..." Twitter. Retrieved April 7, 2014.
  30. ^ Pindell, James (September 27, 2013). "GOP state Sen. Andy Sanborn will not run for governor". WMUR Political Scoop. Retrieved October 1, 2013.
  31. ^ Brennan, Kevin (January 25, 2013). "Smith Considering Another Gov. Run in N.H." National Journal. Archived from the original on May 7, 2013. Retrieved January 28, 2013.
  32. ^ DiStaso, John (July 18, 2013). "John DiStaso's Granite Status: Chris Sununu won't run for Gov, US House or US Senate in '14; plans to seek reelection to Executive Council". New Hampshire Union Leader. Archived from the original on August 22, 2013. Retrieved July 19, 2013.
  33. ^ DiStato, John (April 12, 2013). "Exclusive: Former Sen. John E. Sununu won't run for office in 2014". New Hampshire Union Leader. Archived from the original on June 20, 2013. Retrieved April 12, 2013.
  34. ^ Suffolk Archived June 20, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
  35. ^ a b c Vox Populi Polling
  36. ^ Suffolk
  37. ^ "Our Campaigns - NH Governor - R Primary Race - Sep 09, 2014". www.ourcampaigns.com. Retrieved October 9, 2024.
  38. ^ "2014 Governor Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  39. ^ "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  40. ^ "2014 Gubernatorial Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  41. ^ "2014 Elections Map - 2014 Governors Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  42. ^ Public Policy Polling
  43. ^ WMUR/UNH
  44. ^ New England College
  45. ^ a b Rasmussen Reports
  46. ^ Vox Populi Polling
  47. ^ WMUR/UNH
  48. ^ a b c d e f American Research Group
  49. ^ New England College
  50. ^ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  51. ^ Public Policy Polling
  52. ^ CNN/ORC
  53. ^ UMass Lowell
  54. ^ Suffolk/Boston Herald
  55. ^ New England College
  56. ^ New England College
  57. ^ High Point University
  58. ^ WMUR/UNH
  59. ^ New England College
  60. ^ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  61. ^ New England College
  62. ^ New England College
  63. ^ Public Policy Polling
  64. ^ Vox Populi Polling
  65. ^ New England College
  66. ^ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  67. ^ a b WMUR/UNH
  68. ^ National Research/RGA
  69. ^ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  70. ^ a b WMUR/UNH
  71. ^ Suffolk/Boston Herald Archived June 20, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
  72. ^ a b c d Max Abramson (L)
  73. ^ a b Rockefeller Center
  74. ^ a b c WMUR/UNH
  75. ^ a b c d e Suffolk/Boston Herald
  76. ^ a b c d Public Policy Polling
  77. ^ New England College
  78. ^ a b c d e Public Policy Polling
  79. ^ a b c d Public Policy Polling
  80. ^ a b WMUR/UNH
  81. ^ New England College
  82. ^ Suffolk/Boston Herald Archived June 20, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
  83. ^ Suffolk/Boston Herald Archived June 20, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
  84. ^ Hickman Analytics
  85. ^ Suffolk/Boston Herald Archived June 20, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
  86. ^ "Governor - 2014 General Election". Dave Leip's Atlas. Retrieved November 22, 2014.
  87. ^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
[edit]

Official campaign websites

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