2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas
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Cotton: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Pryor: 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Arkansas |
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The 2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arkansas, concurrently with the election of the Governor of Arkansas, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Pryor ran for re-election to a third term in office. He was unopposed in the Democratic primary; U.S. Representative Tom Cotton was also unopposed for the Republican nomination. While the race was initially expected to be close, Cotton prevailed by a margin of 57% to 39%.[1] The Associated Press called the race for Cotton immediately after the polls closed.[2] This marked the first time since Reconstruction in 1877 that Republicans held both Senate seats in Arkansas, and the Arkansas congressional delegation was entirely Republican. Pryor drew many comparisons to Blanche Lincoln, also a Democratic senator from Arkansas who was ultimately unseated in 2010, with Pryor receiving a similar fate.
Elected at age 37, Cotton surpassed Connecticut's Chris Murphy as the youngest incumbent senator at that time and remained so until the seating of Missouri’s Josh Hawley at the opening of the 116th United States Congress.
Background
[edit]Arkansas Attorney General Mark Pryor was first elected to the Senate in 2002, defeating first-term Republican incumbent Tim Hutchinson. He was re-elected with 80% of the vote in 2008 as he was unopposed by a Republican candidate. He faced competition only from Green Party nominee Rebekah Kennedy, who won the largest share of the vote of any Green Party candidate in a Senate race in history.[3] Of the 88 previous occasions when an incumbent senator was re-elected without major party opposition and then went on to contest the following general election, all 88 were re-elected.[4]
Heading into the 2014 Cotton vs. Pryor matchup, only 17 House freshmen had been elected to the U.S. Senate over the last century, and just two in the last 40 years.[5] In the 2014 cycle, Cotton and Montana's Steve Daines became the 18th and 19th freshmen to win U.S. Senate races since 1914.[6]
The election was originally thought to be extremely close- a claim backed up by polling, but Tom Cotton ended up winning in a landslide against the incumbent, by 17.1 points.[7]
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Mark Pryor, incumbent U.S. Senator[8]
Declined
[edit]- Bobby Tullis, former state representative[9]
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Mark Pryor (incumbent) | Unopposed | |||
| Total votes | — | 100.0 | |||
Republican primary
[edit]Cotton was unopposed for the Republican nomination.
Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Tom Cotton, U.S. Representative for Arkansas's 4th congressional district (2013–2015)[10]
Declined
[edit]- Rick Crawford, U.S. Representative for Arkansas's 1st congressional district (2011–present) (running for re-election)[11]
- Mark Darr, Lieutenant Governor of Arkansas (2011–2014)[12]
- Timothy Griffin, U.S. Representative for Arkansas's 2nd congressional district (2011–2015) (running for Lieutenant Governor)[13]
- Steve Womack, U.S. Representative Arkansas's 3rd congressional district (2011–present) (running for re-election)[14]
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Tom Cotton | Unopposed | |||
| Total votes | — | 100.0 | |||
Third parties
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Nathan LaFrance (Libertarian), energy executive[15]
- Mark Swaney (Green), mechanical engineer and nominee for the state house in 2010[15]
General election
[edit]Endorsements
[edit]Tom Cotton (R)
- Club for Growth[16]
- Tim Griffin, U.S. Representative[14]
- Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator[17]
- Allen West, former U.S. Representative[18]
- Steve Womack, U.S. Representative[14]
- Rick Santorum, former U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania and candidate for President of the United States in 2012[19]
- Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts and 2012 Republican presidential candidate[20]
Mark Pryor (D)
Fundraising
[edit]| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on Hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Pryor (D) | $10,428,246 | $12,034,784 | $364,653 |
| Tom Cotton (R) | $7,557,443 | $6,411,763 | $1,885,435 |
Debates
[edit]- Complete video of debate, October 13, 2014
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[22] | Tossup | November 3, 2014 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] | Likely R (flip) | November 3, 2014 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[24] | Lean R (flip) | November 3, 2014 |
| Real Clear Politics[25] | Lean R (flip) | November 3, 2014 |
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Pryor (D) |
Tom Cotton (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basswood Research[26] | March 16–17, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 35% | 43% | — | 22% |
| Basswood Research[27] | June 22–23, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 41% | 40% | — | 19% |
| Clark Research[28] | July 23–27, 2013 | 729 | ± 4% | 43% | 35% | — | 21% |
| On Message Inc.[29] | July 29–30, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 42% | 44% | — | 14% |
| Harper Polling[30] | August 4–5, 2013 | 587 | ± 4.04% | 41% | 43% | — | 16% |
| Global Strategy Group[31] | August 26–29, 2013 | 501 | ± ?% | 47% | 40% | — | 13% |
| Harper Polling[32] | September 24–26, 2013 | 622 | ± 3.93% | 45% | 42% | — | 13% |
| Talk Business/Hendrix College[33] | October 8, 2013 | 603 | ± 4% | 42% | 41% | — | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling[34] | October 14–15, 2013 | 955 | ± 3.2% | 44% | 41% | — | 15% |
| University of Arkansas[35] | October 10–17, 2013 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 34% | 32% | — | 34% |
| Impact Management Group[36] | October 24, 2013 | 911 | ± 3.2% | 41% | 42% | — | 18% |
| Polling Company/WomanTrend[37] | December 6–7, 2013 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 41% | 48% | — | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling[38] | December 13–15, 2013 | 1,004 | ± 3.1% | 44% | 44% | — | 12% |
| Rasmussen Reports[39] | February 4–5, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 40% | 45% | 5% | 10% |
| Harper Polling[40] | January 26–27, 2014 | 533 | ± 4.24% | 36% | 42% | — | 22% |
| Impact Management Group[41] | February 10, 2014 | 1,202 | ± 2.83% | 42% | 46% | — | 13% |
| Hickman Analytics[42] | February 17–20, 2014 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 39% | 41% | 8% | 12% |
| 42% | 51% | — | 8% | ||||
| Anzalone Liszt Grove Research[43] | March 27 – April 2, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 48% | 45% | — | 7% |
| Talk Business/Hendrix College[44] | April 3–4, 2014 | 1,068 | ± 3% | 46% | 43% | 4%[45] | 8% |
| Opinion Research Associates[46] | April 1–8, 2014 | 400 | ± 5% | 48% | 38% | — | 8% |
| Harper Polling[47] | April 9–10, 2014 | 522 | ± 4.29% | 39% | 39% | — | 22% |
| New York Times/Kaiser Family[48] | April 8–15, 2014 | 857 | ± 4% | 46% | 36% | 4% | 15% |
| Magellan Strategies[49] | April 14–15, 2014 | 857 | ± 3.35% | 43% | 46% | 4% | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling[50] | April 25–27, 2014 | 840 | ± 3.4% | 43% | 42% | — | 16% |
| NBC News/Marist[51] | April 30 – May 4, 2014 | 876 | ± 3.3% | 51% | 40% | 1% | 3% |
| Rasmussen Reports[39] | May 27–28, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 43% | 47% | 4% | 6% |
| Public Opinion Strategies[52] | May 27–29, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.39% | 41% | 46% | — | 13% |
| Fabrizio Lee[53] | June 3–5, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 43% | 51% | — | 5% |
| Magellan Strategies[54] | June 4–5, 2014 | 755 | ± 3.57% | 45% | 49% | 2% | 4% |
| Impact Management Group[55] | June 29, 2014 | 1290 | ± 2.72% | 43% | 47% | — | 10% |
| Gravis Marketing[56] | July 7–8, 2014 | 987 | ± 3% | 44% | 51% | 5%[57] | — |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[58] | July 5–24, 2014 | 1,628 | ± 2.9% | 45% | 49% | 1% | 5% |
| Anzalone Liszt Grove Research[59] | July 20–24, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 48% | 46% | — | 6% |
| Talk Business/Hendrix College[60] | July 22–25, 2014 | 1,780 | ± 2.3% | 42% | 44% | 7%[61] | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling[62] | August 1–3, 2014 | 1,066 | ± 3% | 39% | 41% | 7%[61] | 14% |
| 41% | 43% | — | 16% | ||||
| Opinion Research Associates[63] | August 6–14, 2014 | 414 | ± 4.9% | 46% | 41% | 4%[45] | 9% |
| Rasmussen Reports[39] | August 25–26, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 44% | 43% | 6% | 6% |
| ccAdvertising[64] | August 31 – September 1, 2014 | 1,735 | ± ? | 29% | 37% | — | 34% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[65] | August 18 – September 2, 2014 | 1,572 | ± 3% | 39% | 43% | 2% | 16% |
| CNN/ORC International[66] | August 28 – September 2, 2014 | 523 LV | ± 4.5% | 47% | 49% | — | 4% |
| 839 RV | ± 3.5% | 47% | 38% | — | 14% | ||
| Hickman Analytics[67] | August 26 – September 3, 2014 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 45% | 43% | — | 12% |
| NBC News/Marist[68] | September 2–4, 2014 | 639 LV | ± 3.9% | 40% | 45% | 6%[69] | 9% |
| 1,068 RV | ± 3% | 41% | 41% | 8%[70] | 11% | ||
| Answers Unlimited[71] | September 7–9, 2014 | 600 | ± 3.5% | 46% | 42% | 4%[45] | 8% |
| Gravis Marketing[72] | September 8–11, 2014 | 902 | ± 4% | 43% | 47% | 2%[57] | 8% |
| Hickman Analytics[73] | September 13–18, 2014 | 801 | ± 3.5% | 46% | 43% | — | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling[74] | September 18–21, 2014 | 1,453 | ± 2.6% | 38% | 43% | 6%[75] | 13% |
| 39% | 45% | — | 15% | ||||
| Suffolk[76] | September 20–23, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 45% | 43% | 5%[75] | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports[39] | September 24–25, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 40% | 47% | 5% | 8% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[77] | September 20 – October 1, 2014 | 1,991 | ± 2% | 41% | 45% | 1% | 13% |
| Opinion Research Associates[78] | October 1–5, 2014 | 400 | ± 5% | 45% | 42% | 5% | 9% |
| Fox News[79] | October 4–7, 2014 | 707 | ± 3.5% | 39% | 46% | 5%[80] | 11% |
| Rasmussen Reports[39] | October 13–15, 2014 | 940 | ± 3% | 44% | 47% | 4% | 5% |
| Talk Business/Hendrix[81] | October 15–16, 2014 | 2,075 | ± 2.2% | 40.5% | 49% | 5%[82] | 6% |
| NBC News/Marist[83] | October 19–23, 2014 | 621 | ± 3.9% | 43% | 45% | 6%[69] | 7% |
| 971 | ± 3.1% | 43% | 42% | 6%[69] | 9% | ||
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[77] | October 16–23, 2014 | 1,567 | ± 4% | 42% | 47% | 1% | 10% |
| Opinion Research Associates[84] | October 25–26, 2014 | 401 | ± 5% | 45% | 44% | 2%[85] | 10% |
| Issues & Answers Network[86] | October 21–27, 2014 | 568 | ± 4.1% | 36% | 49% | — | 15% |
| Rasmussen Reports[39] | October 27–29, 2014 | 967 | ± 3% | 44% | 51% | 4% | 2% |
| Public Policy Polling[87] | October 30 – November 1, 2014 | 1,092 | ± 3% | 41% | 49% | 4%[88] | 5% |
| 45% | 51% | — | 4% | ||||
| Opinion Research Associates[89] | October 30 – November 1, 2014 | 400 | ± 5% | 45% | 43% | 4%[88] | 8% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Tom Cotton | 478,819 | 56.50% | N/A | |
| Democratic | Mark Pryor (incumbent) | 334,174 | 39.43% | −40.10% | |
| Libertarian | Nathan LaFrance | 17,210 | 2.03% | N/A | |
| Green | Mark Swaney | 16,797 | 1.98% | −18.49% | |
| Write-in | 505 | 0.06% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 847,505 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican gain from Democratic | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
[edit]- Craighead (Largest city: Jonesboro)
- Cross (Largest city: Wynne)
- Greene (Largest city: Paragould)
- Hot Spring (Largest city: Malvern)
- Izard (Largest city: Horseshoe Bend)
- Arkansas (Largest city: Stuttgart)
- Calhoun (Largest city: Hampton)
- Cleburne (Largest city: Heber Springs)
- Cleveland (Largest city: Rison)
- Columbia (Largest city: Magnolia)
- Conway (Largest city: Morrilton)
- Faulkner (Largest city: Conway)
- Franklin (Largest city: Ozark)
- Fulton (Largest city: Salem)
- Garland (Largest city: Hot Springs)
- Grant (Largest city: Sheridan)
- Independence (Largest city: Batesville)
- Johnson (Largest city: Clarksville)
- Logan (Largest city: Booneville)
- Lonoke (Largest city: Cabot)
- Madison (Largest city: Huntsville)
- Marion (Largest city: Bull Shoals)
- Miller (Largest city: Texarkana)
- Montgomery (Largest city: Mount Ida)
- Perry (Largest city: Perryville)
- Pike (Largest city: Glenwood)
- Pope (Largest city: Russellville)
- Prairie (Largest city: Des Arc)
- Saline (Largest city: Benton)
- Scott (Largest city: Waldron)
- Sevier (Largest city: De Queen)
- Sharp (Largest city: Cherokee Village)
- Stone (Largest city: Mountain View)
- Union (Largest city: El Dorado)
- Van Buren (Largest city: Clinton)
- Washington (Largest city: Fayetteville)
- White (Largest city: Searcy)
- Yell (Largest city: Dardanelle)
- Baxter (Largest city: Mountain Home)
- Boone (Largest city: Harrison)
- Carroll (Largest city: Berryville)
- Newton (Largest city: Jasper)
- Polk (Largest city: Mena)
- Benton (Largest city: Rogers)
- Crawford (Largest city: Van Buren)
- Searcy (Largest city: Marshall)
- Sebastian (Largest city: Fort Smith)
- Clay (largest city: Piggott)
- Hempstead (largest city: Hope)
- Lawrence (largest city: Walnut Ridge)
- Poinsett (largest city: Harrisburg)
- Randolph (largest city: Pocahontas)
- Drew (Largest city: Monticello)
- Ashley (Largest city: Crossett)
- Lafayette (Largest city: Stamps)
- Nevada (Largest city: Prescott)
- Dallas (Largest city: Fordyce)
- Bradley (largest city: Warren)
- Jackson (largest city: Newport)
- Lincoln (largest city: Star City)
- Little River (largest city: Ashdown)
- Howard (Largest city: Nashville)
See also
[edit]
- 2014 Arkansas gubernatorial election
- 2014 United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas
- 2014 United States Senate elections
- 2014 United States elections
References
[edit]- ^ "November 4, 2014 Arkansas General Election and Nonpartisan Runoff Election OFFICIAL RESULTS". November 4, 2014. Retrieved September 8, 2022.
- ^ Glueck, Katie. "Cotton defeats Pryor in Arkansas". POLITICO.
- ^ "Blog Archive » Rebekah Kennedy Pulls Record Results for U.S. Senate - America's #1 Source for Green Party News & Views". Green Party Watch. November 7, 2008. Retrieved September 4, 2010.
- ^ Ostermeier, Eric (August 5, 2013). "Mark Pryor Could Face Historic Defeat in 2014". Smart Politics.
- ^ Ostermeier, Eric (March 20, 2013). "Tom Cotton's Quandary: Can House Freshmen Win Senate Seats?". Smart Politics.
- ^ Ostermeier, Eric (November 17, 2014). "Will a Freshman US Representative Win a Senate Seat in 2016?". Smart Politics.
- ^ Glueck, Katie. "Cotton defeats Pryor in Arkansas". POLITICO. Retrieved January 14, 2021.
- ^ "Sen. Mark Pryor is running for re-election in 2014". Arkansas Times. April 19, 2012.
- ^ "D.C. GOP can't get a pulse on Arkansas". Natural State Report. July 31, 2013. Archived from the original on August 1, 2013.
- ^ Glueck, Katie (July 31, 2013). "Arkansas's Tom Cotton to run for U.S. Senate". Politico.
- ^ Daniels, Alex; Frago, Charlie (November 12, 2012). "Democrat Mark Pryor seen as likely GOP target in '14". Arkansas Online.
- ^ DeMillo, Andrew (August 13, 2013). "Mark Darr Announces Run for Arkansas' 4th District Seat". Arkansas Business. Associated Press.
- ^ "Griffin Wins Seat on Ways and Means Committee, Will Not Seek Higher Office in 2014". talkbusiness.net. Archived from the original on December 3, 2012.
- ^ a b c Saylor, Ryan (August 7, 2013). "Democrats, Republicans React To Cotton, Changing Political Landscape". Talk Business Arkansas. Retrieved August 13, 2013.
- ^ a b "Candidates who filed for office in Arkansas". sfgate.com. March 3, 2014. Retrieved March 5, 2014.
- ^ Trygstad, Kyle. "Club for Growth Backs Mark Pryor Challenger". Roll Call. Retrieved August 7, 2013.
- ^ Leary, Alex. "Rubio endorses Tom Cotton in Arkansas Senate race". Tampa Bay Times. Archived from the original on September 21, 2013. Retrieved September 20, 2013.
- ^ Kubin, Jacquie. "Allen West Guardian Fund 2014: Endorsing tomorrow's leaders". The Washington Times. Retrieved September 19, 2013.
- ^ "Rick Santorum and Patriot Voices PAC Announce Endorsements in Four Key U.S. Senate Races". Patriot Voices. April 22, 2014. Retrieved April 25, 2014.[permanent dead link]
- ^ "Political Note: Romney Endorses Cotton". Time Record Online Edition. June 13, 2014. Retrieved July 31, 2014.
- ^ Brantley, Max (April 25, 2014). "UPDATE: Arkansas Education Association to endorse Mark Pryor. And, boy, did he go after Cotton today on Medicare, Social Security". Arkansas Times. Retrieved July 31, 2014.
- ^ "2014 Senate Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
- ^ "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
- ^ "2014 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
- ^ "2014 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2014". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
- ^ Basswood Research
- ^ Basswood Research
- ^ Clark Research
- ^ On Message Inc.
- ^ Harper Polling
- ^ Global Strategy Group
- ^ Harper Polling
- ^ Talk Business/Hendrix College
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ University of Arkansas
- ^ Impact Management Group
- ^ Polling Company/WomanTrend
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ a b c d e f Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Harper Polling
- ^ Impact Management Group
- ^ Hickman Analytics
- ^ Anzalone Liszt Grove Research
- ^ Talk Business/Hendrix College
- ^ a b c Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 2%
- ^ Opinion Research Associates
- ^ Harper Polling
- ^ New York Times/Kaiser Family
- ^ Magellan Strategies
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ NBC News/Marist
- ^ Public Opinion Strategies
- ^ Fabrizio Lee
- ^ Magellan Strategies
- ^ Impact Management Group
- ^ Gravis Marketing
- ^ a b Nathan LaFrance (L)
- ^ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
- ^ Anzalone Liszt Grove Research
- ^ Talk Business/Hendrix College
- ^ a b Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 4%
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Opinion Research Associates
- ^ ccAdvertising
- ^ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
- ^ CNN/ORC International
- ^ Hickman Analytics
- ^ NBC News/Marist
- ^ a b c Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 3%, Other 1%
- ^ Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 4%, Other 1%
- ^ Answers Unlimited
- ^ Gravis Marketing
- ^ Hickman Analytics
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ a b Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 3%
- ^ Suffolk Archived September 25, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ a b CBS News/NYT/YouGov
- ^ Opinion Research Associates Archived October 10, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Fox News
- ^ Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 2%, Other 1%
- ^ Talk Business/Hendrix
- ^ Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 2%
- ^ NBC News/Marist
- ^ Opinion Research Associates
- ^ Nathan LaFrance (L) 1%, Mark Swaney (G) 1%
- ^ Issues & Answers Network
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ a b Nathan LaFrance (L) 1%, Mark Swaney (G) 3%
- ^ Opinion Research Associates
- ^ "November 4, 2014 General election and nonpartisan runoff election Official results". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved November 23, 2014.
External links
[edit]- U.S. Senate elections in Arkansas, 2014 at Ballotpedia
- Campaign contributions at OpenSecrets
- Arkansas Senate debate excerpts, OnTheIssues.org
Campaign websites (Archived)