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2014 United States Senate special election in Hawaii

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2014 United States Senate special election in Hawaii
← 2010 November 4, 2014 2016 →
 
Nominee Brian Schatz Campbell Cavasso
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 246,827 98,006
Percentage 69.78% 27.70%
County results Schatz:      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Brian Schatz[a]
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Brian Schatz
Democratic

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The 2014 United States Senate special election in Hawaii took place on November 4, 2014, the general Election Day in the United States, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Brian Schatz was appointed to the office in December 2012, following the death of longtime senator Daniel Inouye.[1] The special election determined who would serve the remainder of Inouye's term, which ended on January 3, 2017.

The Hawaii primary elections took place on August 9, 2014,[2] but the Democratic primary remained unresolved until August 15 due to areas affected by damage from Tropical Storm Iselle. Schatz narrowly fended off a primary challenge from U.S. Representative Colleen Hanabusa and then went on to defeat the Republican nominee, former state representative Campbell Cavasso, in a landslide.

Background

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Daniel Inouye announced that he planned to run for a record tenth term in 2016, when he would have been 92 years old.[3][4] He also said, "I have told my staff and I have told my family that when the time comes, when you question my sanity or question my ability to do things physically or mentally, I don't want you to hesitate, do everything to get me out of here, because I want to make certain the people of Hawaii get the best representation possible."[5] Inouye died on December 17, 2012.[6] He left a letter encouraging Governor Neil Abercrombie to appoint Congresswoman Colleen Hanabusa to succeed Inouye, should he become incapacitated.[7]

Hawaii law allows the governor to appoint an interim senator "who serves until the next regularly-scheduled general election, chosen from a list of three prospective appointees that the prior incumbent's political party submits". Abercrombie appointed the Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii Brian Schatz as U.S. Senator, citing Hanabusa's seniority on the United States House Committee on Armed Services as a chief reason not to appoint her to the position.[8]

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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Declined

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Endorsements

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Brian Schatz

Politicians

Organizations

Newspapers

Colleen Hanabusa

Politicians

Celebrities

Organizations

Debates

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Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Brian
Schatz 		Colleen
Hanabusa 		Other Undecided
QMark Research^[26] February 2013 500 ± 4.38% 32% 54% — 13%
Clarity Campaigns^[27] June 10–11, 2013 771 ± 3.53% 35% 46% — 19%
Civil Beat[28] June 18–20 & 24, 2013 869 ± 3.3% 36% 33% 9% 23%
Mellman Group*[29] June 26–30, 2013 600 ± ?% 38% 37% — 25%
Civil Beat[30] October 9–10, 2013 549 ± 4.2% 38% 36% — 26%
Mellman Group*[31] January 7–13, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 41% 37% — 22%
Hawaii Poll[32] January 29 – February 3, 2014 528 ± 4.3% 40% 48% — 11%
Civil Beat[33] February 12–15, 2014 643 ± 3.9% 40% 40% — 20%
Public Policy Polling[34] May 9–11, 2014 606 ± 4% 49% 34% — 17%
Civil Beat[35] May 18–19, 2014 520 ± 4.3% 44% 39% — 16%
Public Policy Polling[36] July 23–24, 2014 410 ± ? 49% 39% — 11%
Civil Beat[37] July 24–28, 2014 895 ± 3.3% 49% 41% — 10%
Hawaii Poll[38] July 21–29, 2014 458 ± 4.6% 42% 50% — 8%
  • * Internal poll for Brian Schatz campaign
  • ^ Internal poll for Colleen Hanabusa campaign

Delay in election result

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Primary elections in Hawaii were held on August 9, 2014. However, two precincts in Puna on Hawaiʻi Island did not open due to damage from Hurricane Iselle, and the approximately 8,255 voters in those precincts instead voted on August 15.[39] The two leading Democratic candidates, Colleen Hanabusa and Brian Schatz, were initially separated by only 1,635 votes, meaning that the outcome was officially uncertain until voting in Puna was finished.[40][41] However, an analysis by Hawaii News Now showed that Hanabusa would need to win approximately 65% of the vote in the outstanding precincts to overtake Schatz, something she had not managed in any other precinct in the state.[42] Thus, Schatz was seen as the likely winner.[43] After voting in Puna was completed, Schatz was declared the winner by a slightly increased margin of 1,769 votes.[44] Hanabusa conceded on August 19.[45]

Results

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Results by county:
Map legend
  •   Schatz—40–50%
  •   Hanabusa—40–50%
  •   Hanabusa—50–60%
Democratic primary results[46]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Brian Schatz (incumbent) 115,445 48.52%
Democratic Colleen Hanabusa 113,663 47.77%
Democratic Brian Evans 4,842 2.03%
Democratic Blank vote 3,842 1.61%
Democratic Over vote 150 0.06%
Total votes 237,942 100.00%

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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  • Campbell Cavasso, former state representative and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2004 and 2010[47]
  • Harry Friel, businessman
  • Eddie Pirkowski, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2006, 2010 and 2012[48]
  • John Roco, founder of Saint Damien Advocates and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and 2012[49]

Declined

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Results

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Vote totals listed do not include two precincts that will vote on August 15.

Republican primary results[46]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Campbell Cavasso 25,874 58.61%
Republican John P. Roco 4,425 10.02%
Republican Harry J. Friel, Jr. 3,477 7.88%
Republican Eddie Pirkowski 2,033 4.60%
Republican Blank vote 8,306 18.81%
Republican Over vote 34 0.08%
Total votes 44,149 100.00%

Libertarian primary

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Candidates

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  • Michael Kokoski

Results

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Libertarian primary results[46]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Michael Kokoski 568 79.89%
Libertarian Blank vote 143 20.11%
Total votes 711 100.00%

Independent primary

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Candidates

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  • Joy Allison
  • Arturo Pacheco Reyes

Results

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Independent primary results[46]
Party Candidate Votes %
Independent Joy Allison 388 34.80%
Independent Arturo Pacheco Reyes 184 16.50%
Independent Blank vote 540 48.43%
Independent Over vote 3 0.27%
Total votes 1,115 100.00%

Neither of the candidates polled enough votes to meet Hawaii's strict criteria for independents to participate in the general election.[54]

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[55] Solid D November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[56] Safe D November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[57] Safe D November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[58] Safe D November 3, 2014

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Brian
Schatz (D) 		Campbell
Cavasso (R) 		Other Undecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[59] July 5–24, 2014 1,087 ± 3% 58% 22% 15% 5%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[60] August 18 – September 2, 2014 655 ± 6% 62% 27% 0% 10%
Rasmussen Reports[61] September 9–10, 2014 750 ± 4% 60% 28% 6% 7%
Civil Beat[62] September 11–14, 2014 1,055 ± 3% 62% 25% — 13%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[63] September 20 – October 1, 2014 1,319 ± 4% 78% 22% 0% 0%
Ward Research[64] October 11–18, 2014 605 ± 4% 71% 20% — 10%
Civil Beat[65] October 16–19, 2014 1,221 ± 2.8% 55% 29% — 16%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[63] October 16–23, 2014 1,002 ± 6% 70% 18% 1% 11%

Results

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United States Senate special election in Hawaii, 2014[66]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Brian Schatz (incumbent) 246,827 69.78% −5.03%
Republican Campbell Cavasso 98,006 27.70% +6.13%
Libertarian Michael Kokoski 8,941 2.52% +1.72%
Total votes 353,774 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Notes

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  1. ^ In December 2012, Schatz was appointed by Governor Neil Abercrombie to fill the vacancy caused by the death of Senator Daniel Inouye.

References

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  1. ^ "Who Is Brian Schatz, the New U.S. Senator From Hawaii? - David A. Graham - The Atlantic". The Atlantic. December 27, 2012. Retrieved July 30, 2014.
  2. ^ "2014 Calendar of Elections". Hawai'i Office of Elections. Retrieved March 9, 2014.
  3. ^ Manu Raju and John Bresnahan (April 12, 2011). "Sen. Daniel Inouye goes silent on big Hawaiian race". Politico.
  4. ^ Hamilton, Chris. "The Maui News — Inouye has more he wants to do for (Hawaii Senator emphasizes need for Democrats to remain in control)". The Maui News. Retrieved September 2, 2012.
  5. ^ Mizutani, Ron (April 26, 2010). "Sen. Akaka: "God willing, I Plan to Run Again in 2012"". KHON2. Archived from the original on July 13, 2011. Retrieved March 3, 2011.
  6. ^ "Hawaii Sen. Daniel Inouye dies at age 88". Washington Post. Retrieved December 17, 2012.
  7. ^ "CNN: Inouye gave preference for successor before he died". CNN.com. December 18, 2012. Archived from the original on December 31, 2012. Retrieved December 18, 2012.
  8. ^ Lt. Gov. Brian Schatz to Replace Inouye in U.S. Senate | Hawaii Reporter
  9. ^ Rousseau, Morgan (March 13, 2014). "'At Fenway' crooner Brian Evans running for Hawaii's U.S. Senate". Metro. Archived from the original on March 15, 2014. Retrieved March 15, 2014.
  10. ^ "Rep. Colleen Hanabusa to challenge Sen. Brian Schatz in 2014 primary". Hawaii News Now. April 23, 2013. Retrieved April 23, 2013.
  11. ^ a b Former Congressman Ed Case Joins Growing List of Democrats Applying for Inouye’s U.S. Senate Seat | Hawaii Reporter
  12. ^ Chad Blair (December 3, 2013). "Bloomberg to Headline Schatz Reception in Honolulu". Civil Beat. Retrieved July 22, 2013.
  13. ^ Terkel, Amanda (July 21, 2013). "Al Gore Endorses Brian Schatz In Hawaii Democratic Senate Primary". Huffington Post. Retrieved July 22, 2013.
  14. ^ KPUA: Harkin backing Schatz in Hawai`i Senate race Archived February 11, 2015, at the Wayback Machine. July 17, 2013. Accessed February 11, 2015.
  15. ^ a b Jennifer Bendery (March 31, 2014). "Obama Endorses Brian Schatz In Hawaii's Heated Senate Democratic Primary". The Huffington Post. Retrieved March 31, 2014.
  16. ^ a b "Abercrombie, Schatz receive endorsement for upcoming election | More Local News - KITV Home". Kitv.com. July 2, 2014. Retrieved July 25, 2014.
  17. ^ "Elizabeth Warren Sends Fundraising Letter For Brian Schatz". The Huffington Post. June 3, 2014. Retrieved May 29, 2014.
  18. ^ a b c "Brian Schatz has been endorsed by..." Archived from the original on October 15, 2013. Retrieved February 4, 2016.
  19. ^ [1] Archived October 15, 2013, at the Wayback Machine
  20. ^ Blair, Chad (September 1, 2013). "No Surprise: Hawaii's Sierra Club Backs Schatz". Honolulu Civil Beat. Archived from the original on December 5, 2013. Retrieved September 4, 2013.
  21. ^ "Hawaii News, Honolulu, Honolulu News, Sports, Editorial, Features, Travel and Business - Honolulu Star-Advertiser - Hawaii Newspaper". November 30, 2011. Retrieved July 30, 2014.
  22. ^ Former Senator Daniel Akaka endorses Colleen Hanabusa for 2014
  23. ^ Scheuring, Ian (May 3, 2013). "Wife of late Sen. Inouye backs Hanabusa for Senate". Hawaii News Now. Retrieved May 3, 2013.
  24. ^ Fox, Chloe (December 9, 2013). "George Takei Endorses Hawaii Rep. Colleen Hanabusa". The Huffington Post. Retrieved December 10, 2013.
  25. ^ Burns, Alexander (April 23, 2013). "Colleen Hanabusa rallies EMILY's List support". Politico. Retrieved April 23, 2013.
  26. ^ QMark Research^
  27. ^ Clarity Campaigns^
  28. ^ Civil Beat
  29. ^ Mellman Group*
  30. ^ Civil Beat
  31. ^ Mellman Group*
  32. ^ Hawaii Poll
  33. ^ Civil Beat
  34. ^ Public Policy Polling
  35. ^ Civil Beat
  36. ^ Public Policy Polling
  37. ^ Civil Beat
  38. ^ Hawaii Poll
  39. ^ Blair, Chad (August 11, 2014). "Hawaii Elections Office Announces Plan for Puna Voting on Friday". Honolulu Civil Beat. Peer News. Retrieved August 12, 2014.
  40. ^ Nakaso, Dan (August 11, 2014). "All eyes on Puna". Honolulu Star-Advertiser. Oahu Publications. Retrieved August 11, 2014.
  41. ^ Grube, Nick (August 10, 2014). "Will Hanabusa's Push in Puna Be Enough?". Honolulu Civil Beat. Peer News. Retrieved August 11, 2014.
  42. ^ "Puna voters give edge to Schatz in close race with Hanabusa". Hawaii News Now. August 11, 2014. Retrieved September 8, 2014.
  43. ^ "Does Schatz have edge with remaining Hawaii voters?". Roll Call. August 11, 2014. Retrieved September 8, 2014.
  44. ^ DePledge, Derrick; Reyes, B.J. (August 16, 2014). "It's Schatz". Honolulu Star-Advertiser. Oahu Publications. Retrieved August 16, 2014.
  45. ^ "Hanabusa Won't Challenge US Senate Election Results". Honolulu Civil Beat. Peer News. August 19, 2014. Retrieved August 21, 2014.
  46. ^ a b c d "Primary Election 2014 -State of Hawaii – Statewide" (PDF). Hawaii Office of Elections. Retrieved October 24, 2014.
  47. ^ Blair, Chad (October 22, 2013). "Civil Beat Poll — Schatz Has Narrow Lead Over Hanabusa". Honolulu Civil Beat. Retrieved October 23, 2013.
  48. ^ Nago, Scott (June 10, 2014). "Hawaii State Certified Filing Report" (PDF). State of Hawaii, Office of Elections. Retrieved June 13, 2014.
  49. ^ "John Roco announces candidacy for U.S. Senate Hawaii 2014". China Hawaii Today. Retrieved April 12, 2014.
  50. ^ Ian Scheuring (March 21, 2014). "State GOP chair confirms Djou congressional run". Hawaii News Now.
  51. ^ Colleen Hanabusa favorite for Daniel Inouye seat - Alex Isenstadt - POLITICO.com
  52. ^ James Hohmann (November 17, 2013). "GOP's third shot at Senate: Charm or bust?". Politico. Archived from the original on November 24, 2013. Retrieved November 20, 2013.
  53. ^ "Former Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle Returns to CSUN to Teach". CSUN Today. January 15, 2014. Retrieved June 3, 2014.
  54. ^ "No Independent Candidate Polls Enough Votes in Hawaii Primary to Advance to General Election Ballot". Ballot Access News. August 10, 2014. Retrieved October 27, 2014.
  55. ^ "2014 Senate Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  56. ^ "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 3, 2014. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  57. ^ "2014 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  58. ^ "2014 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2014". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  59. ^ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  60. ^ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  61. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  62. ^ Civil Beat
  63. ^ a b CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  64. ^ Ward Research
  65. ^ Civil Beat
  66. ^ "Hawaii General Election 2014" (PDF). Hawaii Office of Elections. November 4, 2014. Retrieved December 18, 2014.
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