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2014 United States House of Representatives election ratings

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2014 United States House of Representatives election ratings

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Competitive seats highlighted by party
Democratic seats:      Competitive      Uncompetitive
Republican seats:      Competitive      Uncompetitive

The 2014 United States House of Representatives elections were held on November 4, 2014, with early voting taking place in some states in the weeks preceding that date. Voters chose representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. Non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and four of the five inhabited U.S. territories[a] were also elected. These midterm elections took place nearly halfway through the second term of Democratic President Barack Obama. The winners served in the 114th United States Congress, with seats apportioned among the states based on the 2010 United States census. On Election Day, Republicans had held a House majority since January 2011 as a result of the 2010 elections.

Election ratings

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Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below were considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.

Incumbents not running for re-election have parentheses around their names, while incumbents with a caret (^) sought re-election, but were defeated in the primary election. Note that safeness of a district is not necessarily a prediction as to outcome.

Most election ratings use:

  • Tossup: no advantage
  • Tilt (sometimes used): slight advantage
  • Lean: clear advantage
  • Likely: strong, but not certain advantage
  • Safe: outcome is nearly certain
District CPVI Incumbent Previous
result
Cook
November 3, 2014[1]
Rothenberg
October 29, 2014[2]
Sabato
October 30, 2014[3]
RCP
November 2, 2014[4]
Daily Kos
November 4, 2014[5]
Winner
Alaska at-large R+12 Don Young (R) 63.9% R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Don Young (R)
Arizona 1 R+4 Ann Kirkpatrick (D) 48.8% D Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Ann Kirkpatrick (D)
Arizona 2 R+3 Ron Barber (D) 50.4% D Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Martha McSally (R)
Arizona 9 R+1 Kyrsten Sinema (D) 48.5% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D Lean D Kyrsten Sinema (D)
Arkansas 2 R+8 Timothy Griffin (R) (retiring)[b] 55.2% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Tossup Tossup French Hill (R)
Arkansas 4 R+15 Tom Cotton (R) (retiring)[c] 59.5% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Tossup Lean R Bruce Westerman (R)
California 3 D+3 John Garamendi (D) 53.7% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Likely D John Garamendi (D)
California 7 EVEN Ami Bera (D) 51.1% D Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Ami Bera (D)
California 9 D+6 Jerry McNerney (D) 54.1% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Jerry McNerney (D)
California 21 D+2 David Valadao (R) 59.9% R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R David Valadao (R)
California 24 D+4 Lois Capps (D) 54.8% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Lois Capps (D)
California 26 D+4 Julia Brownley (D) 51.7% D Tossup Lean D Lean D Tossup Tossup Julia Brownley (D)
California 31 D+5 Gary Miller (R) (retiring) 55.2% R Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Pete Aguilar (D)
California 36 R+1 Raul Ruiz (D) 51.4% D Lean D Safe D Lean D Lean D Lean D Raul Ruiz (D)
California 52 D+2 Scott Peters (D) 50.2% D Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Scott Peters (D)
Colorado 6 D+1 Mike Coffman (R) 48.7% R Lean R Tilt R Lean R Tossup Tilt R Mike Coffman (R)
Connecticut 5 D+3 Elizabeth Esty (D) 51.5% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D Likely D Elizabeth Esty (D)
Florida 2 R+6 Steve Southerland (R) 52.7% R Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Gwen Graham (D)
Florida 18 R+3 Patrick Murphy (D) 50.3% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Lean D Lean D Patrick Murphy (D)
Florida 26 R+1 Joe Garcia (D) 53.6% D Tossup Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Carlos Curbelo (R)
Georgia 12 R+9 John Barrow (D) 53.7% D Tossup Lean D Lean D Tossup Tossup Rick Allen (R)
Hawaii 1 D+18 Colleen Hanabusa (D) (retiring)[c] 54.6% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean D Mark Takai (D)
Illinois 8 D+8 Tammy Duckworth (D) 54.7% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Tammy Duckworth (D)
Illinois 10 D+8 Brad Schneider (D) 50.5% D Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Robert Dold (R)
Illinois 11 D+8 Bill Foster (D) 58.1% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Lean D Likely D Bill Foster (D)
Illinois 12 EVEN Bill Enyart (D) 51.5% D Tossup Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Mike Bost (R)
Illinois 13 EVEN Rodney Davis (R) 46.6% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Lean R Likely R Rodney Davis (R)
Illinois 17 D+7 Cheri Bustos (D) 53.3% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D Lean D Cheri Bustos (D)
Indiana 2 R+6 Jackie Walorski (R) 49.0% R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Jackie Walorski (R)
Iowa 1 D+5 Bruce Braley (D) (retiring)[c] 56.9% D Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Rod Blum (R)
Iowa 2 D+4 Dave Loebsack (D) 55.6% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D David Loebsack (D)
Iowa 3 EVEN Tom Latham (R) (retiring) 52.3% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup David Young (R)
Iowa 4 R+5 Steve King (R) 53.2% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Steve King (R)
Kansas 2 R+8 Lynn Jenkins (R) 57.0% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lynn Jenkins (R)
Kansas 3 R+6 Kevin Yoder (R) 68.4% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Kevin Yoder (R)
Maine 2 D+2 Mike Michaud (D) (retiring)[d] 58.1% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean D Bruce Poliquin (R)
Maryland 6 D+4 John Delaney (D) 58.8% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Likely D John Delaney (D)
Massachusetts 6 D+4 John F. Tierney (D) (lost renomination) 48.3% D Lean D Tilt D Lean D Lean D Tilt D Seth Moulton (D)
Massachusetts 9 D+5 Bill Keating (D) 58.3% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Bill Keating (D)
Michigan 1 R+5 Dan Benishek (R) 48.2% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Dan Benishek (R)
Michigan 4 R+5 Dave Camp (R) (retiring) 63.1% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R John Moolenaar (R)
Michigan 6 R+1 Fred Upton (R) 54.6% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Fred Upton (R)
Michigan 7 R+3 Tim Walberg (R) 53.3% R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Tim Walberg (R)
Michigan 8 R+2 Mike Rogers (R) (retiring) 58.6% R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Mike Bishop (R)
Michigan 11 R+4 Kerry Bentivolio (R) (lost renomination)[e][6] 50.7% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Dave Trott
Minnesota 1 R+1 Tim Walz (D) 57.6% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Tim Walz (D)
Minnesota 7 R+6 Collin Peterson (D) 60.4% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Tossup Collin Peterson (D)
Minnesota 8 D+1 Rick Nolan (D) 54.5% D Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Rick Nolan (D)
Montana at-large R+7 Steve Daines (R) (retiring)[c] 53.2% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Ryan Zinke (R)
Nebraska 2 R+4 Lee Terry (R) 51.2% R Tossup Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Tilt D (flip) Brad Ashford (D)
Nevada 3 EVEN Joe Heck (R) 50.4% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Joe Heck (R)
Nevada 4 D+4 Steven Horsford (D) 50.1% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Tilt D Cresent Hardy (R)
New Hampshire 1 R+1 Carol Shea-Porter (D) 49.7% D Tossup Tilt D Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Frank Guinta (R)
New Hampshire 2 D+3 Ann McLane Kuster (D) 50.2% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean D Ann McLane Kuster (D)
New Jersey 3 R+1 Jon Runyan (R) (retiring) 53.8% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tom MacArthur (R)
New Jersey 5 R+4 Scott Garrett (R) 55.5% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Scott Garrett (R)
New York 1 R+2 Tim Bishop (D) 52.2% D Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Lee Zeldin (R)
New York 4 D+3 Carolyn McCarthy (D) (retiring) 61.8% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Likely D Kathleen Rice (D)
New York 11 R+2 Michael Grimm (R) 52.8% R Lean R Tilt R Lean R Tossup Lean R Michael Grimm (R)
New York 18 EVEN Sean Patrick Maloney (D) 51.7% D Tossup Tilt D Lean D Lean D Lean D Sean Patrick Maloney (D)
New York 19 D+1 Chris Gibson (R) 53.4% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Chris Gibson (R)
New York 21 EVEN Bill Owens (D) (retiring) 50.2% D Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Elise Stefanik (R)
New York 23 R+3 Tom Reed (R) 52.1% R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Tom Reed (R)
New York 24 D+5 Dan Maffei (D) 48.4% D Tossup Tilt D Lean D Tossup Tossup John Katko (R)
North Carolina 7 R+12 Mike McIntyre (D) (retiring) 50.1% D Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip) Safe R (flip) Safe R (flip) Safe R (flip) David Rouzer (R)
North Dakota at-large R+10 Kevin Cramer (R) 54.9% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Kevin Cramer (R)
Ohio 6 R+8 Bill Johnson (R) 53.3% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Bill Johnson (R)
Ohio 14 R+4 David Joyce (R) 54.3% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R David Joyce (R)
Pennsylvania 6 R+2 Jim Gerlach (R) (retiring) 57.1% R Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Ryan Costello (R)
Texas 23 R+3 Pete Gallego (D) 50.3% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Will Hurd (R)
Utah 4 R+16 Jim Matheson (D) (retiring) 49.3% D Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip) Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip) Likely R (flip) Mia Love (R)
Virginia 10 R+2 Frank Wolf (R) (retiring) 58.8% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup Lean R Barbara Comstock (R)
Washington 1 D+4 Suzan DelBene (D) 53.6% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Suzan DelBene (D)
West Virginia 2 R+11 Shelley Moore Capito (R) (retiring)[c] 69.8% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Tossup Lean R Alex Mooney (R)
West Virginia 3 R+14 Nick Rahall (D) 53.9% D Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Tilt R (flip) Evan Jenkins (R)
Wisconsin 6 R+5 Tom Petri (R) (retiring) 62.1% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Glenn Grothman (R)
Wisconsin 7 R+2 Sean Duffy (R) 56.1% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Sean Duffy (R)
Overall R - 228
D - 182
25 tossups
R - 235
D - 189
11 tossups
R - 243
D - 192
R - 226
D - 179
30 tossups
R - 227
D -190
18 tossups
R - 247
D - 188

Notes

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  1. ^ Not including the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico, who serves a four-year term.
  2. ^ Retired to run for Lieutenant Governor
  3. ^ a b c d e Retired to run for senate
  4. ^ Retired to run for Governor
  5. ^ Ran as a Write-In in the General Election

References

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  1. ^ "2014 House Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". House: Race Ratings. Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on November 6, 2014. Retrieved November 3, 2014.
  2. ^ "House Ratings". rothenbergpoliticalreport.com. Rothenberg Political Report. October 29, 2014. Archived from the original on November 3, 2014. Retrieved December 7, 2023.
  3. ^ "2014 House". Sabato's Crystal Ball. April 10, 2014. Retrieved April 11, 2014.
  4. ^ "Battle for the House". realclearpolitics.com. Real Clear Politics. November 4, 2014. Retrieved December 7, 2023.
  5. ^ "Daily Kos Elections House race ratings: Initial ratings for 2014". Daily Kos Elections. Archived from the original on November 9, 2014. Retrieved November 4, 2014.
  6. ^ Bowman, Bridget (October 2, 2014). "Kerry Bentivolio to Wage Write-In Campaign". Roll Call. Archived from the original on November 12, 2014. Retrieved December 1, 2014.