2008 United States presidential election in Arkansas
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| Elections in Arkansas |
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The 2008 United States presidential election in Arkansas took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. State voters chose six representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
Arkansas was won by Republican John McCain by a 19.86% margin of victory, a much greater margin than George W. Bush attained in 2004, despite a large national Democratic trend. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state McCain would win, or otherwise a red state. The state trended dramatically Republican in 2008, as McCain received over 4% more of the statewide popular vote than Bush earned in 2004 and more than doubled his margin of victory. Only five counties swung more Democratic in 2008, and the vast majority of counties swung heavily Republican, some by as much as 30%.[1] Of the ten counties with the largest percentage swing to the Republicans in the U.S. during this election, six of them were located in Arkansas.[2]
Obama became the first Democrat to ever win the White House without carrying Arkansas. Since 1996, Arkansas has rapidly transformed from a Democratic stronghold into one of the most Republican states in the nation. It was also one of the six states where neither Obama nor McCain won during the primary season, and the strongest of five states that swung rightward in this election, the others being Oklahoma, Louisiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia.
Despite McCain's landslide victory in the state's presidential race, Democratic Senator Mark Pryor easily won re-election on the same ballot, in which he did not face Republican opposition. This was the first time Arkansas voted for a losing presidential candidate since 1968.
Primaries
[edit]Campaign
[edit]Predictions
[edit]There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:
| Source | Ranking |
|---|---|
| D.C. Political Report[3] | Likely R |
| Cook Political Report[4] | Solid R |
| The Takeaway[5] | Lean R |
| Electoral-vote.com[6] | Lean R |
| Washington Post[7] | Lean R |
| Politico[8] | Solid R |
| RealClearPolitics[9] | Lean R |
| FiveThirtyEight[7] | Solid R |
| CQ Politics[10] | Solid R |
| The New York Times[11] | Solid R |
| CNN[12] | Lean R |
| NPR[7] | Solid R |
| MSNBC[7] | Solid R |
| Fox News[13] | Likely R |
| Associated Press[14] | Likely R |
| Rasmussen Reports[15] | Safe R |
Polling
[edit]John McCain won every single opinion poll taken in Arkansas prior to the election, with leads ranging from 7% to 29%. Although, McCain polled just in the low 50% range.[16] RealClearPolitics gave the state an average of 52.3% for McCain, compared to 38.8% for Obama. The margin of victory on election day was more than double of the RCP average.[17] The state was not seriously contested by either campaign.
Fundraising
[edit]Obama raised $1,004,783. McCain raised $934,884. Both candidates raised the most in Pulaski County.[18][19]
Advertising and visits
[edit]Obama spent over $110,350. McCain spent only $459.[20] Neither candidate visited the state.[21]
Analysis
[edit]Although former President Bill Clinton, a Democrat, easily carried his home state of Arkansas in 1992 and 1996, the state was largely considered a safe state for McCain. Early polls gave McCain a 9-point lead among possible voters on Election Day.[22] Although the state was still strongly Democratic at the non-presidential levels, on Election Day, Arkansas voted for McCain by a margin of approximately 20%--ten points better than Bush's showing four years earlier. In this election, Arkansas voted 27.12% to the right of the nation at-large.[23]
A handful of counties — some of which had not voted for the Republican presidential candidate since Richard Nixon won every county in 1972 — swung safely into the GOP column. The Delta county of Jackson, for example, swung from a 14.3-point victory for Democrat Kerry in 2004 to a 16.3-point victory for McCain in 2008. Possible factors suggested for such a large swing away from the Democrats was Obama's status as the first African American major-party nominee in a historically segregationist state still dominated by conservative whites,[24] as well as the fact that Hillary Clinton, who once served as First Lady of Arkansas while her husband was Governor, did not receive the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008. The polls showed Clinton defeating McCain in Arkansas. Obama became the first Democrat in history to win the White House without carrying Arkansas.
During the same election, however, freshman Democratic U.S. Senator Mark Pryor faced no Republican opposition, and was reelected in a landslide victory over Rebekah Kennedy of the Green Party. The four members of the state's delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives (three Democrats and one Republican) were also reelected with no major-party opposition. Republicans, however, picked up three seats in the Arkansas House of Representatives and one Democratic state representative became a Green (he later returned to the Democratic Party in 2009).
Results
[edit]| 2008 United States presidential election in Arkansas[25] | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Running mate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
| Republican | John McCain | Sarah Palin | 638,017 | 58.72% | 6 | |
| Democratic | Barack Obama | Joe Biden | 422,310 | 38.86% | 0 | |
| Independent | Ralph Nader | Matt Gonzalez | 12,882 | 1.19% | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Bob Barr | Wayne Allyn Root | 4,776 | 0.44% | 0 | |
| Constitution | Chuck Baldwin | Darrell Castle | 4,023 | 0.37% | 0 | |
| Green | Cynthia McKinney | Rosa Clemente | 3,470 | 0.32% | 0 | |
| Socialism and Liberation | Gloria La Riva | Eugene Puryear | 1,139 | 0.10% | 0 | |
| Totals | 1,086,617 | 100.00% | 6 | |||
| Voter turnout | 64.52% | |||||
By county
[edit]| County[26] | John McCain Republican |
Barack Obama Democratic |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Arkansas | 4,185 | 59.97% | 2,619 | 37.53% | 174 | 2.49% | 1,566 | 22.44% | 6,978 |
| Ashley | 5,406 | 62.55% | 2,976 | 34.44% | 260 | 3.01% | 2,430 | 28.11% | 8,642 |
| Baxter | 12,852 | 64.32% | 6,539 | 32.73% | 590 | 2.95% | 6,313 | 31.59% | 19,981 |
| Benton | 51,124 | 67.20% | 23,331 | 30.67% | 1,618 | 2.13% | 27,793 | 36.53% | 76,073 |
| Boone | 10,575 | 68.34% | 4,435 | 28.66% | 464 | 3.00% | 6,140 | 39.68% | 15,474 |
| Bradley | 2,262 | 55.98% | 1,680 | 41.57% | 99 | 2.45% | 582 | 14.41% | 4,041 |
| Calhoun | 1,462 | 65.94% | 691 | 31.17% | 64 | 2.89% | 771 | 34.77% | 2,217 |
| Carroll | 6,083 | 57.50% | 4,172 | 39.44% | 324 | 3.06% | 1,911 | 18.06% | 10,579 |
| Chicot | 2,119 | 40.69% | 3,043 | 58.43% | 46 | 0.88% | -924 | -17.74% | 5,208 |
| Clark | 4,608 | 50.67% | 4,267 | 46.92% | 219 | 2.41% | 341 | 3.75% | 9,094 |
| Clay | 3,032 | 55.02% | 2,244 | 40.72% | 235 | 4.26% | 788 | 14.30% | 5,511 |
| Cleburne | 7,962 | 70.22% | 2,951 | 26.03% | 425 | 3.75% | 5,011 | 44.19% | 11,338 |
| Cleveland | 2,451 | 69.93% | 911 | 25.99% | 143 | 4.08% | 1,540 | 43.94% | 3,505 |
| Columbia | 5,861 | 61.32% | 3,554 | 37.18% | 143 | 1.50% | 2,307 | 24.14% | 9,558 |
| Conway | 4,691 | 57.64% | 3,149 | 38.70% | 298 | 3.66% | 1,542 | 18.94% | 8,138 |
| Craighead | 18,881 | 60.97% | 11,294 | 36.47% | 793 | 2.56% | 7,587 | 24.50% | 30,968 |
| Crawford | 14,688 | 71.54% | 5,238 | 25.51% | 606 | 2.95% | 9,450 | 46.03% | 20,532 |
| Crittenden | 7,650 | 41.91% | 10,330 | 56.59% | 275 | 1.51% | -2,680 | -14.68% | 18,255 |
| Cross | 4,393 | 61.61% | 2,580 | 36.19% | 157 | 2.20% | 1,813 | 25.42% | 7,130 |
| Dallas | 1,757 | 52.95% | 1,471 | 44.33% | 90 | 2.71% | 286 | 8.62% | 3,318 |
| Desha | 1,999 | 42.73% | 2,569 | 54.92% | 110 | 2.35% | -570 | -12.19% | 4,678 |
| Drew | 3,860 | 58.40% | 2,598 | 39.30% | 152 | 2.30% | 1,262 | 19.10% | 6,610 |
| Faulkner | 25,362 | 61.59% | 14,955 | 36.32% | 862 | 2.10% | 10,407 | 25.27% | 41,179 |
| Franklin | 4,411 | 68.12% | 1,869 | 28.86% | 195 | 3.01% | 2,542 | 39.26% | 6,475 |
| Fulton | 2,702 | 57.78% | 1,819 | 38.90% | 155 | 3.31% | 883 | 18.88% | 4,676 |
| Garland | 26,825 | 61.36% | 15,899 | 36.37% | 995 | 2.28% | 10,926 | 24.99% | 43,719 |
| Grant | 5,023 | 73.94% | 1,562 | 22.99% | 208 | 3.06% | 3,461 | 50.95% | 6,793 |
| Greene | 8,578 | 63.02% | 4,541 | 33.36% | 493 | 3.62% | 4,037 | 29.66% | 13,612 |
| Hempstead | 4,273 | 58.14% | 2,869 | 39.04% | 207 | 2.82% | 1,404 | 19.10% | 7,349 |
| Hot Spring | 7,209 | 60.30% | 4,288 | 35.87% | 458 | 3.83% | 2,921 | 24.43% | 11,955 |
| Howard | 2,957 | 61.02% | 1,746 | 36.03% | 143 | 2.95% | 1,211 | 24.99% | 4,846 |
| Independence | 8,255 | 67.12% | 3,688 | 29.99% | 356 | 2.89% | 4,567 | 37.13% | 12,299 |
| Izard | 3,193 | 61.19% | 1,792 | 34.34% | 233 | 4.47% | 1,401 | 26.85% | 5,218 |
| Jackson | 3,118 | 55.86% | 2,207 | 39.54% | 257 | 4.60% | 911 | 16.32% | 5,582 |
| Jefferson | 10,655 | 35.89% | 18,465 | 62.19% | 569 | 1.92% | -7,810 | -26.30% | 29,689 |
| Johnson | 4,922 | 60.17% | 3,034 | 37.09% | 224 | 2.74% | 1,888 | 23.08% | 8,180 |
| Lafayette | 1,685 | 58.06% | 1,133 | 39.04% | 84 | 2.89% | 552 | 19.02% | 2,902 |
| Lawrence | 3,357 | 57.58% | 2,138 | 36.67% | 335 | 5.75% | 1,219 | 20.91% | 5,830 |
| Lee | 1,454 | 38.64% | 2,263 | 60.14% | 46 | 1.22% | -809 | -21.50% | 3,763 |
| Lincoln | 2,513 | 57.04% | 1,710 | 38.81% | 183 | 4.15% | 803 | 18.23% | 4,406 |
| Little River | 3,247 | 63.02% | 1,753 | 34.03% | 152 | 2.95% | 1,494 | 28.99% | 5,152 |
| Logan | 5,350 | 67.66% | 2,286 | 28.91% | 271 | 3.43% | 3,064 | 38.75% | 7,907 |
| Lonoke | 17,242 | 72.63% | 5,968 | 25.14% | 531 | 2.24% | 11,274 | 47.49% | 23,741 |
| Madison | 3,972 | 62.77% | 2,144 | 33.88% | 212 | 3.35% | 1,828 | 28.89% | 6,328 |
| Marion | 4,524 | 63.17% | 2,384 | 33.29% | 254 | 3.55% | 2,140 | 29.88% | 7,162 |
| Miller | 9,913 | 65.81% | 4,869 | 32.32% | 281 | 1.87% | 5,044 | 33.49% | 15,063 |
| Mississippi | 6,976 | 49.79% | 6,667 | 47.59% | 367 | 2.62% | 309 | 2.20% | 14,010 |
| Monroe | 1,754 | 50.86% | 1,615 | 46.83% | 80 | 2.32% | 139 | 4.03% | 3,449 |
| Montgomery | 2,365 | 65.30% | 1,092 | 30.15% | 165 | 4.56% | 1,273 | 35.15% | 3,622 |
| Nevada | 2,062 | 56.73% | 1,474 | 40.55% | 99 | 2.72% | 588 | 16.18% | 3,635 |
| Newton | 2,588 | 65.35% | 1,182 | 29.85% | 190 | 4.80% | 1,406 | 35.50% | 3,960 |
| Ouachita | 5,427 | 54.49% | 4,346 | 43.63% | 187 | 1.88% | 1,081 | 10.86% | 9,960 |
| Perry | 2,743 | 64.10% | 1,352 | 31.60% | 184 | 4.30% | 1,391 | 32.50% | 4,279 |
| Phillips | 3,097 | 34.53% | 5,695 | 63.50% | 177 | 1.97% | -2,598 | -28.97% | 8,969 |
| Pike | 2,727 | 68.76% | 1,089 | 27.46% | 150 | 3.78% | 1,638 | 41.30% | 3,966 |
| Poinsett | 4,903 | 61.84% | 2,742 | 34.59% | 283 | 3.57% | 2,161 | 27.25% | 7,928 |
| Polk | 5,473 | 71.25% | 1,957 | 25.48% | 251 | 3.27% | 3,516 | 45.77% | 7,681 |
| Pope | 15,568 | 70.51% | 6,002 | 27.18% | 509 | 2.31% | 9,566 | 43.33% | 22,079 |
| Prairie | 2,223 | 65.75% | 1,048 | 31.00% | 110 | 3.25% | 1,175 | 34.75% | 3,381 |
| Pulaski | 70,212 | 43.52% | 88,854 | 55.07% | 2,277 | 1.41% | -18,642 | -11.55% | 161,343 |
| Randolph | 3,615 | 57.21% | 2,469 | 39.07% | 235 | 3.72% | 1,146 | 18.14% | 6,319 |
| St. Francis | 3,917 | 41.21% | 5,486 | 57.72% | 102 | 1.08% | -1,569 | -16.51% | 9,505 |
| Saline | 30,981 | 69.38% | 12,695 | 28.43% | 977 | 2.19% | 18,286 | 40.95% | 44,653 |
| Scott | 2,514 | 62.26% | 1,473 | 36.48% | 51 | 1.26% | 1,041 | 25.78% | 3,995 |
| Searcy | 2,726 | 70.86% | 961 | 24.98% | 160 | 4.16% | 1,765 | 45.88% | 3,847 |
| Sebastian | 28,637 | 66.27% | 13,673 | 31.64% | 902 | 2.09% | 14,964 | 34.63% | 43,212 |
| Sevier | 3,125 | 68.23% | 1,291 | 28.19% | 164 | 3.58% | 1,834 | 40.04% | 4,580 |
| Sharp | 4,535 | 62.53% | 2,436 | 33.59% | 281 | 3.87% | 2,099 | 28.94% | 7,252 |
| Stone | 3,534 | 66.38% | 1,598 | 30.02% | 192 | 3.61% | 1,936 | 36.36% | 5,324 |
| Union | 10,677 | 62.15% | 6,190 | 36.03% | 312 | 3.61% | 4,487 | 26.12% | 17,179 |
| Van Buren | 4,276 | 63.79% | 2,151 | 32.09% | 276 | 4.12% | 2,125 | 31.70% | 6,703 |
| Washington | 37,963 | 55.52% | 29,021 | 42.44% | 1,396 | 2.04% | 8,942 | 13.08% | 68,380 |
| White | 19,467 | 72.22% | 6,732 | 24.97% | 756 | 2.80% | 12,735 | 47.25% | 26,955 |
| Woodruff | 1,206 | 43.68% | 1,412 | 51.14% | 143 | 5.18% | -206 | -7.46% | 2,761 |
| Yell | 3,808 | 63.09% | 2,003 | 33.18% | 225 | 3.73% | 1,805 | 29.91% | 6,036 |
| Totals | 638,017 | 58.72% | 422,310 | 38.86% | 26,290 | 2.42% | 215,707 | 19.86% | 1,086,617 |
| Democratic Hold | Republican Hold Gain from Democratic |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
[edit]- Bradley (largest city: Warren)
- Clark (largest city: Arkadelphia)
- Clay (largest city: Piggott)
- Hempstead (largest city: Hope)
- Jackson (largest city: Newport)
- Lawrence (largest city: Walnut Ridge)
- Lincoln (largest city: Star City)
- Little River (largest city: Ashdown)
- Mississippi (largest city: Osceola)
- Monroe (largest city: Clarendon)
- Poinsett (largest city: Harrisburg)
- Randolph (largest city: Pocahontas)
By congressional district
[edit]McCain swept every congressional district in Arkansas, three of which were held by Democrats.
| District | McCain | Obama | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 58.69% | 38.41% | Marion Berry |
| 2nd | 53.98% | 44.07% | Vic Snyder |
| 3rd | 64.16% | 33.45% | John Boozman |
| 4th | 58.14% | 39.33% | Michael Avery Ross |
Electors
[edit]Technically the voters of Arkansas cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Arkansas is allocated 6 electors because it has 4 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 6 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 6 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[27] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 6 were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin:[28]
- Jim Burnett
- Reta Hamilton
- Rose Bryant Jones
- Phyllis Kincannon
- Steve Lux
- Kermit Parks
See also
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ "Arkansas Swing 2008". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved October 27, 2013.
- ^ "2008 Election Statistics". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved May 4, 2019.
- ^ "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". January 1, 2009. Archived from the original on January 1, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
- ^ "Presidential". May 5, 2015. Archived from the original on May 5, 2015. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
- ^ "Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions". April 22, 2009. Archived from the original on April 22, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
- ^ "Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily". electoral-vote.com. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
- ^ a b c d Based on Takeaway
- ^ "POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com". www.politico.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
- ^ "RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map". Archived from the original on June 5, 2008.
- ^ "CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on June 14, 2009. Retrieved December 20, 2009.
- ^ Nagourney, Adam; Zeleny, Jeff; Carter, Shan (November 4, 2008). "The Electoral Map: Key States". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. October 31, 2008. Archived from the original on June 19, 2010. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ "Winning The Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
- ^ "roadto270". hosted.ap.org. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
- ^ "Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports". www.rasmussenreports.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
- ^ "Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved July 26, 2012.
- ^ "Alabama: McCain vs. Obama". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved May 31, 2009.
- ^ "Map: Campaign money race - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ [1] Archived January 18, 2009, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Arkansas". Retrieved December 17, 2008.
- ^ "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved March 31, 2023.
- ^ Nasaw, Daniel (November 11, 2008). "Republican gains in three states overshadowed by Obama's success". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
- ^ "Official General Election Results". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved December 12, 2008.
- ^ "2008 Presidential General Election Results - Arkansas".
- ^ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved November 1, 2008.
- ^ "U. S. Electoral College 2008 Election - Certificates". Archives.gov. Retrieved July 26, 2012.
