2008 United States presidential election in Louisiana
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| Elections in Louisiana |
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 Government |
The 2008 United States presidential election in Louisiana took place on November 4, 2008, was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose nine representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
Louisiana was won by Republican nominee John McCain by an 18.6% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state McCain would win, or otherwise a "red state". Although Bill Clinton carried the state twice, it has since shifted strongly toward the Republican Party. This is despite its having one of the largest percentages of African Americans in the country, one of the Democratic Party's most reliable voting blocs and which gave record-breaking support to Obama, the first African American on a major-party presidential ticket. Its shift to the right has been due almost entirely to its white population, which has become overwhelmingly Republican in the 21st century. It was one of five states to swing Republican from 2004, along with West Virginia, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. This marked the first time that Louisiana failed to back the winning candidate since 1968, when it voted for a third-party candidate George Wallace. In doing so, Obama became the first winning Democratic presidential nominee to lose Louisiana since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. He was the first Democrat to ever win without Calcasieu Parish since the parish's founding in 1840.
In this election, Louisiana voted 25.9% to the right of the nation at-large, or a 13.85 percent bigger differential than in 2004.[1]
Primaries
[edit]- 2008 Louisiana Democratic presidential primary
- 2008 Louisiana Republican presidential caucuses and primary
Campaign
[edit]Predictions
[edit]There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:
| Source | Ranking |
|---|---|
| D.C. Political Report[2] | Likely R |
| Cook Political Report[3] | Solid R |
| The Takeaway[4] | Solid R |
| Electoral-vote.com[5] | Solid R |
| Washington Post[6] | Solid R |
| Politico[7] | Solid R |
| RealClearPolitics[8] | Solid R |
| FiveThirtyEight[6] | Solid R |
| CQ Politics[9] | Solid R |
| The New York Times[10] | Solid R |
| CNN[11] | Safe R |
| NPR[6] | Solid R |
| MSNBC[6] | Solid R |
| Fox News[12] | Likely R |
| Associated Press[13] | Likely R |
| Rasmussen Reports[14] | Safe R |
Polling
[edit]McCain won every pre-election poll. The final 3 polls averaged McCain leading 50% to 40%.[15]
Fundraising
[edit]John McCain raised a total of $2,175,416 in the state. Barack Obama raised $1,438,276.[16]
Advertising and visits
[edit]Obama spent $368,039. McCain and his interest groups spent $6,019.[17] McCain visited the state once, in New Orleans.[18]
Analysis
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Polling in Louisiana gave a strong lead to McCain, sometimes as high as 19%,[19] and Barack Obama did not seriously contest the state. Governor Bobby Jindal endorsed McCain early on in the primary season. Louisiana was also one of only two states to list Ron Paul on their official ballot (the other being Montana which gave the largest percentage to any third-party candidate nationwide). This is the last time any county flipped in the state in a presidential election.
At the same time, however, incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu avoided the Republican trend in the state and held onto her U.S. Senate seat, taking in 52.11% of the vote to State Treasurer John N. Kennedy, a Democrat who switched parties to run against Landrieu. Republicans picked up two U.S. House seats in Louisiana (LA-02 and LA-06 with Joseph Cao and Bill Cassidy, respectively). In a terrible year for the Republican Party nationwide, Louisiana provided the GOP with a ray of hope and optimism.
Results
[edit]| 2008 United States presidential election in Louisiana[20] | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Running mate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
| Republican | John McCain | Sarah Palin | 1,148,275 | 58.56% | 9 | |
| Democratic | Barack Obama | Joe Biden | 782,989 | 39.93% | 0 | |
| Louisiana Taxpayers[21] | Ron Paul (no campaign) | Barry Goldwater Jr. | 9,368 | 0.48% | 0 | |
| Green | Cynthia McKinney | Rosa Clemente | 9,187 | 0.47% | 0 | |
| Independent | Ralph Nader | Matt Gonzalez | 6,997 | 0.36% | 0 | |
| Constitution | Chuck Baldwin | Darrell Castle | 2,581 | 0.13% | 0 | |
| Socialist Workers | James Harris | Alyson Kennedy | 735 | 0.04% | 0 | |
| Socialism and Liberation | Gloria La Riva | Eugene Puryear | 354 | 0.02% | 0 | |
| Prohibition | Gene Amondson | Leroy Pletten | 275 | 0.01% | 0 | |
| Totals | 1,960,761 | 100.00% | 9 | |||
| Voter turnout (Voting age population) | 62.0% | |||||
By parish
[edit]| Parish | John McCain Republican |
Barack Obama Democratic |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Acadia | 19,229 | 71.99% | 7,028 | 26.31% | 454 | 1.70% | 12,201 | 45.68% | 26,711 |
| Allen | 6,333 | 66.90% | 2,891 | 30.54% | 243 | 2.57% | 3,442 | 36.36% | 9,467 |
| Ascension | 31,239 | 67.08% | 14,625 | 31.40% | 707 | 1.52% | 16,614 | 35.68% | 46,571 |
| Assumption | 5,981 | 54.57% | 4,756 | 43.39% | 223 | 2.03% | 1,225 | 11.18% | 10,960 |
| Avoyelles | 10,236 | 60.43% | 6,327 | 37.35% | 375 | 2.21% | 3,909 | 23.08% | 16,938 |
| Beauregard | 10,718 | 76.15% | 3,071 | 21.82% | 285 | 2.03% | 7,647 | 54.33% | 14,074 |
| Bienville | 3,776 | 50.82% | 3,589 | 48.30% | 65 | 0.87% | 187 | 2.52% | 7,430 |
| Bossier | 32,713 | 71.37% | 12,703 | 27.71% | 419 | 0.91% | 20,010 | 43.66% | 45,835 |
| Caddo | 52,228 | 48.07% | 55,536 | 51.11% | 896 | 0.82% | -3,308 | -3.04% | 108,660 |
| Calcasieu | 50,449 | 61.43% | 30,244 | 36.82% | 1,438 | 1.75% | 20,205 | 24.61% | 82,131 |
| Caldwell | 3,696 | 75.54% | 1,118 | 22.85% | 79 | 1.61% | 2,578 | 52.69% | 4,893 |
| Cameron | 3,089 | 81.44% | 613 | 16.16% | 91 | 2.40% | 2,476 | 65.28% | 3,793 |
| Catahoula | 3,486 | 66.72% | 1,659 | 31.75% | 80 | 1.53% | 1,827 | 34.97% | 5,225 |
| Claiborne | 3,750 | 54.82% | 3,025 | 44.22% | 66 | 0.96% | 725 | 10.60% | 6,841 |
| Concordia | 5,668 | 59.49% | 3,766 | 39.53% | 93 | 0.98% | 1,902 | 19.96% | 9,527 |
| DeSoto | 6,883 | 56.16% | 5,242 | 42.77% | 132 | 1.08% | 1,641 | 13.39% | 12,257 |
| East Baton Rouge | 95,390 | 48.34% | 99,652 | 50.50% | 2,307 | 1.17% | -4,262 | -2.16% | 197,349 |
| East Carroll | 1,254 | 35.23% | 2,267 | 63.70% | 38 | 1.07% | -1,013 | -28.47% | 3,559 |
| East Feliciana | 5,432 | 54.61% | 4,383 | 44.06% | 132 | 1.33% | 1,049 | 10.55% | 9,947 |
| Evangeline | 9,793 | 61.30% | 5,853 | 36.64% | 330 | 2.07% | 3,940 | 24.66% | 15,976 |
| Franklin | 6,278 | 67.09% | 2,961 | 31.64% | 119 | 1.27% | 3,317 | 35.45% | 9,358 |
| Grant | 6,907 | 80.71% | 1,474 | 17.22% | 177 | 2.07% | 5,433 | 63.49% | 8,558 |
| Iberia | 20,127 | 60.68% | 12,492 | 37.66% | 549 | 1.66% | 7,635 | 23.02% | 33,168 |
| Iberville | 7,185 | 43.75% | 9,023 | 54.95% | 213 | 1.30% | -1,838 | -11.20% | 16,421 |
| Jackson | 5,190 | 67.09% | 2,456 | 31.75% | 90 | 1.16% | 2,734 | 35.34% | 7,736 |
| Jefferson | 113,191 | 62.50% | 65,096 | 35.94% | 2,833 | 1.56% | 48,095 | 26.56% | 181,120 |
| Jefferson Davis | 9,278 | 68.72% | 3,923 | 29.06% | 300 | 2.22% | 5,355 | 39.66% | 13,501 |
| Lafayette | 62,055 | 64.88% | 32,145 | 33.61% | 1,442 | 1.51% | 29,910 | 31.27% | 95,642 |
| Lafourche | 27,089 | 71.49% | 9,662 | 25.50% | 1,142 | 3.01% | 17,427 | 45.99% | 37,893 |
| LaSalle | 5,602 | 85.49% | 860 | 13.12% | 91 | 1.39% | 4,742 | 72.37% | 6,553 |
| Lincoln | 10,680 | 55.69% | 8,292 | 43.23% | 207 | 1.08% | 2,388 | 12.46% | 19,179 |
| Livingston | 43,269 | 85.02% | 6,681 | 13.13% | 942 | 1.85% | 36,588 | 71.89% | 50,892 |
| Madison | 2,152 | 40.60% | 3,100 | 58.49% | 48 | 0.91% | -948 | -17.89% | 5,300 |
| Morehouse | 7,258 | 54.98% | 5,792 | 43.88% | 150 | 1.14% | 1,466 | 11.10% | 13,200 |
| Natchitoches | 9,054 | 53.05% | 7,801 | 45.71% | 212 | 1.24% | 1,253 | 7.34% | 17,067 |
| Orleans | 28,130 | 19.08% | 117,102 | 79.42% | 2,207 | 1.50% | -88,972 | -60.34% | 147,439 |
| Ouachita | 41,741 | 62.07% | 24,813 | 36.90% | 690 | 1.03% | 16,928 | 25.17% | 67,244 |
| Plaquemines | 6,894 | 65.98% | 3,380 | 32.35% | 175 | 1.67% | 3,514 | 33.63% | 10,449 |
| Pointe Coupee | 6,702 | 53.90% | 5,516 | 44.36% | 217 | 1.75% | 1,186 | 9.54% | 12,435 |
| Rapides | 36,611 | 63.65% | 20,127 | 34.99% | 783 | 1.36% | 16,484 | 28.66% | 57,521 |
| Red River | 2,484 | 53.66% | 2,080 | 44.93% | 65 | 1.40% | 404 | 8.73% | 4,629 |
| Richland | 5,751 | 62.64% | 3,311 | 36.06% | 119 | 1.30% | 2,440 | 26.58% | 9,181 |
| Sabine | 7,226 | 74.87% | 2,245 | 23.26% | 181 | 1.88% | 4,981 | 51.61% | 9,652 |
| St. Bernard | 9,643 | 71.21% | 3,491 | 25.78% | 407 | 3.01% | 6,152 | 45.43% | 13,541 |
| St. Charles | 16,457 | 64.80% | 8,522 | 33.56% | 418 | 1.65% | 7,935 | 31.24% | 25,397 |
| St. Helena | 2,522 | 40.78% | 3,567 | 57.68% | 95 | 1.54% | -1,045 | -16.90% | 6,184 |
| St. James | 5,432 | 43.23% | 6,994 | 55.67% | 138 | 1.10% | -1,562 | -12.44% | 12,564 |
| St. John the Baptist | 8,912 | 41.15% | 12,424 | 57.37% | 320 | 1.48% | -3,512 | -16.22% | 21,656 |
| St. Landry | 21,650 | 50.95% | 20,268 | 47.70% | 575 | 1.35% | 1,382 | 3.25% | 42,493 |
| St. Martin | 14,443 | 59.55% | 9,419 | 38.84% | 390 | 1.61% | 5,024 | 20.71% | 24,252 |
| St. Mary | 13,183 | 57.56% | 9,345 | 40.80% | 375 | 1.64% | 3,838 | 16.76% | 22,903 |
| St. Tammany | 83,078 | 75.84% | 24,596 | 22.45% | 1,868 | 1.71% | 58,482 | 53.39% | 109,542 |
| Tangipahoa | 31,434 | 64.68% | 16,438 | 33.82% | 730 | 1.50% | 14,996 | 30.86% | 48,602 |
| Tensas | 1,367 | 44.97% | 1,646 | 54.14% | 27 | 0.89% | -279 | -9.17% | 3,040 |
| Terrebonne | 28,210 | 69.32% | 11,581 | 28.46% | 905 | 2.22% | 16,629 | 40.86% | 40,696 |
| Union | 7,619 | 70.10% | 3,103 | 28.55% | 146 | 1.34% | 4,516 | 41.55% | 10,868 |
| Vermilion | 18,069 | 72.76% | 6,266 | 25.23% | 498 | 2.01% | 11,803 | 47.53% | 24,833 |
| Vernon | 11,946 | 75.76% | 3,534 | 22.41% | 289 | 1.83% | 8,412 | 53.35% | 15,769 |
| Washington | 12,215 | 65.59% | 6,122 | 32.87% | 287 | 1.54% | 6,093 | 32.72% | 18,624 |
| Webster | 11,417 | 62.49% | 6,610 | 36.18% | 243 | 1.33% | 4,807 | 26.31% | 18,270 |
| West Baton Rouge | 6,654 | 56.08% | 5,043 | 42.50% | 169 | 1.42% | 1,611 | 13.58% | 11,866 |
| West Carroll | 4,045 | 81.11% | 878 | 17.61% | 64 | 1.28% | 3,167 | 63.50% | 4,987 |
| West Feliciana | 3,150 | 56.05% | 2,415 | 42.97% | 55 | 0.98% | 735 | 13.08% | 5,620 |
| Winn | 4,632 | 68.40% | 2,047 | 30.23% | 93 | 1.37% | 2,585 | 38.17% | 6,772 |
| Totals | 1,148,275 | 58.56% | 782,989 | 39.93% | 29,497 | 1.50% | 365,286 | 18.63% | 1,960,761 |
| Democratic Hold Gain from Republican | Republican Hold Gain from Democratic |
Parishes that flipped from Republican to Democratic
[edit]- Caddo (largest city: Shreveport)
- East Baton Rouge (largest city: Baton Rouge)
Parishes that flipped from Democratic to Republican
[edit]- Assumption (largest city: Napoleonville)
- Pointe Coupee (largest city: New Roads)
By congressional district
[edit]John McCain carried 6 of the state's 7 congressional districts, both McCain and Obama won a district won by the other party.
| District | McCain | Obama | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 72.72% | 25.68% | Bobby Jindal (110th Congress) |
| Steve Scalise (111th Congress) | |||
| 2nd | 24.86% | 74.13% | William J. Jefferson (110th Congress) |
| Joseph Cao (111th Congress) | |||
| 3rd | 60.99% | 37.03% | Charles Melancon |
| 4th | 59.28% | 39.57% | Jim McCrery (110th Congress) |
| John C. Fleming (111th Congress) | |||
| 5th | 61.75% | 36.96% | Rodney Alexander |
| 6th | 57.40% | 41.26% | Don Cazayoux (110th Congress) |
| Bill Cassidy (111th Congress) | |||
| 7th | 63.14% | 35.20% | Charles Boustany |
Electors
[edit]Technically the voters of Louisiana cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Louisiana is allocated 9 electors because it has 7 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 9 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 9 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[22] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 9 were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin:[23]
- Lynn Skidmore
- Joe Lavigne
- Gordon Giles - He replaced Billy Nungesser, who was absent due to illness.[24]
- Alan Seabaugh
- Karen Haymon
- Charles Davis
- Charlie Buckels
- Dianne Christopher
- Roger F. Villere Jr.
See also
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved April 12, 2023.
- ^ "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". January 1, 2009. Archived from the original on January 1, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
- ^ "Presidential". May 5, 2015. Archived from the original on May 5, 2015. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
- ^ "Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions". April 22, 2009. Archived from the original on April 22, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
- ^ "Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily". electoral-vote.com. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
- ^ a b c d Based on Takeaway
- ^ "POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com". www.politico.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
- ^ "RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map". Archived from the original on June 5, 2008.
- ^ "CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on June 14, 2009. Retrieved December 20, 2009.
- ^ Nagourney, Adam; Zeleny, Jeff; Carter, Shan (November 4, 2008). "The Electoral Map: Key States". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. October 31, 2008. Archived from the original on June 19, 2010. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ "Winning The Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
- ^ "roadto270". hosted.ap.org. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
- ^ "Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports". www.rasmussenreports.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
- ^ Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
- ^ "Presidential Campaign Finance". Archived from the original on March 24, 2009. Retrieved August 20, 2009.
- ^ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ "Rasmussen Reports: The Most Comprehensive Public Opinion Site". Archived from the original on January 31, 2009. Retrieved December 16, 2008.
- ^ "Official General Election Results". The Green Papers. Retrieved December 12, 2008.
- ^ Louisiana Taxpayers
- ^ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved November 1, 2008.
- ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on November 8, 2008. Retrieved November 8, 2008.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link) - ^ http://www.katc.com/Global/story.asp?S=9525360[permanent dead link]
