2020 United States presidential election in West Virginia
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The 2020 United States presidential election in West Virginia was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] West Virginia voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. West Virginia had five electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
Trump easily carried West Virginia on Election Day by 38.9 points, down from 42.1 points in 2016. Prior to the election, all 16 news organizations declared West Virginia a safe, or likely, red state. This was the first time ever that an incumbent Republican carried the state while losing re–election.
With 68.62% of its vote, this would prove to be Trump's second strongest state in 2020, only behind Wyoming, and overall would be the largest share of the vote won by any presidential candidate in West Virginia.
Since West Virginia has only become a very safe Republican stronghold in recent elections, Biden is only the third Democrat ever to win the presidency without carrying the state, after Barack Obama and Woodrow Wilson.
Primary elections
[edit]The primary elections were originally scheduled for May 12, 2020. In April, they were moved to June 9 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.[3]
Democratic primary
[edit]Vice President Joe Biden won the Democratic primary and received all of West Virginia's 28 pledged delegates, as well as all six unpledged PLEO (party leaders and elected officials) delegates, to the 2020 Democratic National Convention.[4]
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 122,518 | 65.35 | 28 |
| Bernie Sanders (withdrawn) | 22,793 | 12.16 | |
| David Lee Rice | 15,470 | 8.25 | |
| Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) | 5,741 | 3.06 | |
| Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) | 4,163 | 2.22 | |
| Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) | 3,759 | 2.01 | |
| Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) | 3,455 | 1.84 | |
| Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) | 3,011 | 1.61 | |
| Andrew Yang (withdrawn) | 2,590 | 1.38 | |
| Michael Bennet (withdrawn) | 1,865 | 0.99 | |
| Tom Steyer (withdrawn) | 1,235 | 0.66 | |
| Deval Patrick (withdrawn) | 882 | 0.47 | |
| Total | 187,482 | 100% | 28 |
Republican primary
[edit]Incumbent President Donald Trump won the Republican primary and received all of West Virginia's 35 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[6]
| Candidate | Popular vote[7] | Pledged delegates[8] | |
|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | ||
| Donald Trump (incumbent) | 198,691 | 94.39 | 35 |
| Joe Walsh (withdrawn) | 3,806 | 1.81 | 0 |
| Bill Weld (withdrawn) | 3,721 | 1.77 | 0 |
| Rocky De La Fuente | 1,537 | 0.73 | 0 |
| Bob Ely | 1,436 | 0.68 | 0 |
| Matthew Mattern | 1,315 | 0.62 | 0 |
| Total | 210,506 | 100% | 35 |
Mountain (Green) primary
[edit]West Virginia's Green Party affiliate conducted an online party-run primary, utilizing the state's original primary date of May 12, 2020, as its deadline.
| Candidate | Percentage | National delegates |
|---|---|---|
| Howie Hawkins | 78.3% | 5 |
| David Rolde | 8.7% | 0 |
| Jesse Ventura (write-in) | 8.7% | 0 |
| Dario Hunter | 4.3% | 0 |
| Total | 100.00% | 5 |
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[10] | Safe R | September 10, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[11] | Safe R | September 4, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] | Safe R | July 14, 2020 |
| Politico[13] | Safe R | September 8, 2020 |
| RCP[14] | Safe R | August 3, 2020 |
| Niskanen[15] | Safe R | July 26, 2020 |
| CNN[16] | Safe R | August 3, 2020 |
| The Economist[17] | Safe R | September 2, 2020 |
| CBS News[18] | Likely R | August 16, 2020 |
| 270towin[19] | Safe R | August 2, 2020 |
| ABC News[20] | Safe R | July 31, 2020 |
| NPR[21] | Likely R | August 3, 2020 |
| NBC News[22] | Safe R | August 6, 2020 |
| 538[23] | Safe R | September 9, 2020 |
Polling
[edit]Graphical summary
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ undecided [a] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270 to Win[24] | October 13–23, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 38.5% | 55.5% | 6.0% | Trump +17.0 |
| FiveThirtyEight[25] | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 33.5% | 62.1% | 4.4% | Trump +28.6 |
| Average | 36.0% | 58.8% | 5.2% | Trump +22.8 | ||
Polls
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Howie Hawkins Mountain |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[26] | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 816 (LV) | ± 5% | 67%[c] | 32% | – | – | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[26] | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 1,359 (LV) | – | 66% | 32% | – | – | – | – |
| Triton Polling and Research/WMOV[27] | Oct 19–21, 2020 | 544 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 58% | 38% | – | – | – | 4% |
| Research America Inc./West Virginia Metro News[28] | Oct 6–9, 2020 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 53% | 39% | 4% | 1% | – | 3% |
| Triton Polling & Research/WMOV[29] | Sep 29–30, 2020[d] | 525 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 56% | 38% | – | – | – | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[26] | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 516 (LV) | – | 62% | 36% | – | – | – | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[26] | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 496 (LV) | – | 65% | 32% | – | – | – | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[26] | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 494 (LV) | – | 67% | 32% | – | – | – | 1% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[26] | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 264 (LV) | – | 72% | 27% | – | – | – | 1% |
| WPA Intelligence/Club for Growth[30][A] | Jan 7–9, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 66% | 31% | – | – | – | 3% |
Former candidates
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Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
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Results
[edit]Trump won West Virginia, carrying the popular vote in each of the state's 55 counties.[33]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence |
545,382 | 68.62 | +0.10% | |
| Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
235,984 | 29.69 | +3.27% | |
| Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen |
10,687 | 1.34 | −1.88% | |
| Mountain | Howie Hawkins Angela Walker |
2,599 | 0.33 | −0.80% | |
| Write-in | 79 | <0.01 | + | ||
| Total votes | 794,731 | 100.0 | + | ||
By congressional district
[edit]Trump won all three congressional districts.[36]
| District | Trump | Biden | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 68% | 30.3% | David McKinley |
| 2nd | 65.4% | 32.8% | Alex Mooney |
| 3rd | 73.1% | 25.5% | Carol Miller |
By county
[edit]| County | Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Barbour | 5,116 | 76.62% | 1,457 | 21.82% | 104 | 1.56% | 3,659 | 54.80% | 6,677 |
| Berkeley | 33,279 | 64.57% | 17,186 | 33.35% | 1,074 | 2.08% | 16,093 | 31.22% | 51,539 |
| Boone | 6,816 | 75.62% | 2,041 | 22.65% | 156 | 1.73% | 4,775 | 52.97% | 9,013 |
| Braxton | 4,120 | 72.74% | 1,457 | 25.72% | 87 | 1.54% | 2,663 | 47.02% | 5,664 |
| Brooke | 7,545 | 70.81% | 2,947 | 27.66% | 164 | 1.53% | 4,598 | 43.15% | 10,656 |
| Cabell | 21,721 | 58.14% | 14,994 | 40.13% | 645 | 1.73% | 6,727 | 18.01% | 37,360 |
| Calhoun | 2,364 | 79.57% | 568 | 19.12% | 39 | 1.31% | 1,796 | 60.45% | 2,971 |
| Clay | 2,679 | 79.61% | 641 | 19.05% | 45 | 1.34% | 2,038 | 60.56% | 3,365 |
| Doddridge | 2,619 | 84.46% | 435 | 14.03% | 47 | 1.51% | 2,184 | 70.43% | 3,101 |
| Fayette | 11,580 | 68.64% | 5,063 | 30.01% | 227 | 1.35% | 6,517 | 38.63% | 16,870 |
| Gilmer | 2,012 | 75.58% | 599 | 22.50% | 51 | 1.92% | 1,413 | 53.08% | 2,662 |
| Grant | 4,871 | 88.40% | 607 | 11.02% | 32 | 0.58% | 4,264 | 77.38% | 5,510 |
| Greenbrier | 10,925 | 68.93% | 4,655 | 29.37% | 270 | 1.70% | 6,270 | 39.56% | 15,850 |
| Hampshire | 8,033 | 79.65% | 1,939 | 19.22% | 114 | 1.13% | 6,094 | 60.43% | 10,086 |
| Hancock | 9,806 | 71.05% | 3,790 | 27.46% | 206 | 1.49% | 6,016 | 43.59% | 13,802 |
| Hardy | 4,859 | 76.73% | 1,381 | 21.81% | 93 | 1.46% | 3,478 | 54.92% | 6,333 |
| Harrison | 20,683 | 67.89% | 9,215 | 30.25% | 567 | 1.86% | 11,468 | 37.64% | 30,465 |
| Jackson | 10,093 | 74.71% | 3,207 | 23.74% | 209 | 1.55% | 6,886 | 50.97% | 13,509 |
| Jefferson | 15,033 | 54.26% | 12,127 | 43.77% | 545 | 1.97% | 2,906 | 10.49% | 27,705 |
| Kanawha | 46,398 | 56.41% | 34,344 | 41.76% | 1,508 | 1.83% | 12,054 | 14.65% | 82,250 |
| Lewis | 5,782 | 77.52% | 1,538 | 20.62% | 139 | 1.86% | 4,244 | 56.90% | 7,459 |
| Lincoln | 6,012 | 76.77% | 1,711 | 21.85% | 108 | 1.38% | 4,301 | 54.92% | 7,831 |
| Logan | 10,534 | 80.87% | 2,333 | 17.91% | 159 | 1.22% | 8,201 | 62.96% | 13,026 |
| Marion | 16,300 | 63.18% | 8,901 | 34.50% | 598 | 2.32% | 7,399 | 28.68% | 25,799 |
| Marshall | 10,435 | 74.11% | 3,455 | 24.54% | 190 | 1.35% | 6,980 | 49.57% | 14,080 |
| Mason | 8,491 | 75.77% | 2,526 | 22.54% | 189 | 1.69% | 5,965 | 53.23% | 11,206 |
| McDowell | 5,148 | 78.87% | 1,333 | 20.42% | 46 | 0.71% | 3,815 | 58.45% | 6,527 |
| Mercer | 19,237 | 76.53% | 5,556 | 22.10% | 342 | 1.37% | 13,681 | 54.43% | 25,135 |
| Mineral | 10,040 | 77.97% | 2,660 | 20.66% | 176 | 1.37% | 7,380 | 57.31% | 12,876 |
| Mingo | 8,544 | 85.22% | 1,397 | 13.93% | 85 | 0.85% | 7,147 | 71.29% | 10,026 |
| Monongalia | 20,803 | 49.44% | 20,282 | 48.20% | 994 | 2.36% | 521 | 1.24% | 42,079 |
| Monroe | 5,068 | 78.09% | 1,345 | 20.72% | 77 | 1.19% | 3,723 | 57.37% | 6,490 |
| Morgan | 6,537 | 75.17% | 1,998 | 22.98% | 161 | 1.85% | 4,539 | 52.19% | 8,696 |
| Nicholas | 8,279 | 77.86% | 2,226 | 20.93% | 128 | 1.21% | 6,053 | 56.93% | 10,633 |
| Ohio | 12,354 | 62.08% | 7,223 | 36.30% | 323 | 1.62% | 5,131 | 25.78% | 19,900 |
| Pendleton | 2,782 | 76.03% | 820 | 22.41% | 57 | 1.56% | 1,962 | 53.62% | 3,659 |
| Pleasants | 2,742 | 78.54% | 699 | 20.02% | 50 | 1.44% | 2,043 | 58.52% | 3,491 |
| Pocahontas | 2,895 | 72.21% | 1,047 | 26.12% | 67 | 1.57% | 1,848 | 46.09% | 4,009 |
| Preston | 11,190 | 76.79% | 3,163 | 21.70% | 220 | 1.51% | 8,027 | 55.09% | 14,573 |
| Putnam | 20,034 | 70.29% | 7,878 | 27.64% | 589 | 2.07% | 12,156 | 42.65% | 28,501 |
| Raleigh | 24,673 | 74.51% | 7,982 | 24.10% | 459 | 1.39% | 16,691 | 50.41% | 33,114 |
| Randolph | 8,673 | 71.09% | 3,362 | 27.56% | 165 | 1.35% | 5,311 | 43.53% | 12,200 |
| Ritchie | 3,649 | 85.20% | 586 | 13.68% | 48 | 1.12% | 3,063 | 71.52% | 4,283 |
| Roane | 4,213 | 73.10% | 1,455 | 25.25% | 95 | 1.65% | 2,758 | 47.85% | 5,763 |
| Summers | 4,074 | 72.95% | 1,448 | 25.93% | 63 | 1.12% | 2,626 | 47.02% | 5,585 |
| Taylor | 5,477 | 74.18% | 1,796 | 24.33% | 110 | 1.49% | 3,681 | 49.85% | 7,383 |
| Tucker | 2,841 | 73.89% | 938 | 24.40% | 66 | 1.71% | 1,903 | 49.49% | 3,845 |
| Tyler | 3,226 | 82.23% | 631 | 16.08% | 66 | 1.69% | 2,595 | 66.15% | 3,923 |
| Upshur | 7,771 | 76.01% | 2,256 | 22.07% | 196 | 1.92% | 5,515 | 53.94% | 10,223 |
| Wayne | 12,585 | 74.26% | 4,088 | 24.12% | 274 | 1.62% | 8,497 | 50.14% | 16,947 |
| Webster | 2,759 | 81.10% | 610 | 17.93% | 33 | 0.97% | 2,149 | 63.17% | 3,402 |
| Wetzel | 4,993 | 74.87% | 1,539 | 23.08% | 137 | 2.05% | 3,454 | 51.79% | 6,669 |
| Wirt | 2,134 | 80.44% | 466 | 17.57% | 53 | 1.99% | 1,668 | 62.87% | 2,653 |
| Wood | 27,202 | 70.17% | 10,926 | 28.19% | 637 | 1.64% | 16,276 | 41.98% | 38,765 |
| Wyoming | 7,353 | 85.58% | 1,157 | 13.47% | 82 | 0.95% | 6,196 | 72.11% | 8,592 |
| Totals | 545,382 | 68.62% | 235,984 | 29.69% | 13,365 | 1.69% | 309,398 | 38.93% | 794,731 |
Analysis
[edit]West Virginia, which was solidly Democratic territory for much of the 20th century, has consistently voted Republican in presidential elections since 2000. Republicans started making gains in the state in the 21st century due to championing of environmentalism by Democrats such as 2000 Democratic nominee Al Gore, which challenged entrenched coal-mining interests.[37][38]
West Virginia gave Trump his second-highest vote share in 2020, swapping places with Wyoming, after having been Trump's strongest state by vote share in 2016.[39] This is the best Republican performance in state history, surpassing the record set in the previous election. West Virginia was one of two states where Trump won every county, the other being Oklahoma.[40] The closest county in the state, and the only one Trump won without a majority of the vote, was Monongalia County, home to Morgantown and the main campus of West Virginia University. Biden's losing margin of 1.24% in Monongalia marked the closest a Democrat has come to winning any county in West Virginia since 2008. This was the third consecutive presidential election where every county within the state voted Republican, but the first since 1996 in which the Democratic vote share increased relative to the preceding election. Biden received over 40% of the vote in only 4 counties - Monongalia; Kanawha County, home to the state capital and largest city Charleston; Cabell County, home to Marshall University and to the state's second largest city Huntington; and Jefferson County, home to Washington, D.C., exurbs.[33]
Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in West Virginia came from voters who prioritized protecting and expanding production of fossil fuels, such as coal, who comprised 58% of voters and broke for Trump by 90%.[41] Trump's strongest region was southern West Virginia. This coal-mining, union-heavy region was once among the most heavily Democratic places in the nation; Logan County, for example, broke 72% of its ballots for Bill Clinton in 1996, 61% for Al Gore in 2000, 52% for John Kerry in 2004, and even 51% for George McGovern in his only statewide county win in 1972; but by 2008, John McCain flipped it to the Republican column with 54% of the vote, which increased to 68% for Mitt Romney in 2012 and by 2016 and 2020, it had voted 79.6% and 80.9% for Trump, respectively.[36]
During the same election cycle, incumbent Republican Senator Shelley Moore Capito was re-elected by a margin slightly larger than Trump's, beating out Democrat Paula Jean Swearengin by 43.3 points.[42]
Notes
[edit]- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
Partisan clients
- ^ a b The Club for Growth is a PAC supporting the Donald Trump 2020 presidential campaign.
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in West Virginia
- 2020 United States presidential election
- 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Green Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2020 United States elections
- 2020 United States Senate election in West Virginia
- 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in West Virginia
References
[edit]- ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "Gov. Jim Justice announces WV Primary Election will move to June 9, schools will remain closed through April 30". WBOY-TV. April 1, 2020.
- ^ "West Virginia Democratic Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
- ^ "Results – Democratic Contests". results.enr.clarityelections.com/. West Virginia Secretary of State. Retrieved June 10, 2020.
- ^ "West Virginia Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 10, 2020.
- ^ "Election Night Reporting". results.enr.clarityelections.com. Retrieved July 1, 2020.
- ^ "West Virginia Republican Delegation 2020". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved July 1, 2020.
- ^ "Results - 2020 Presidential Primary". Mountain Party. May 12, 2020. Retrieved May 12, 2020.
- ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
- ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
- ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
- ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
- ^ Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
- ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
- ^ "West Virginia 2020 Presidential Election Polls: Biden vs. Trump - 270toWin". 270toWin.com.
- ^ Best, Ryan; Bycoffe, Aaron; King, Ritchie; Mehta, Dhrumil; Wiederkehr, Anna (June 28, 2018). "West Virginia : President: general election Polls". FiveThirtyEight.
- ^ a b c d e f "Candidate preference". www.tableau.com.
- ^ "Triton Polling and Research/WMOV" (PDF).
- ^ McElhinny, Brad (October 13, 2020). "West Virginians favor Trump over Biden for president, latest poll shows".
- ^ "Poll shows incumbents leading races for surveyed WV voters". October 6, 2020.
- ^ a b "WPA Intelligence/Club for Growth" (PDF).
- ^ "Tulchin Research" (PDF).
- ^ "Zogby Analytics - The Zogby Poll: Trump approval/Trump Vs. Warren in 11 states". zogbyanalytics.com.
- ^ a b "West Virginia Election Results 2020". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 10, 2020.
- ^ "West Virginia 2020 General Election". Green Papers. Retrieved September 17, 2020.
- ^ Certificate of Ascertainment, West Virginia Secretary of State, December 9, 2020.
- ^ a b "2020 Presidential General Election Results - West Virginia".
- ^ "Deep in Virginia's craggy coal country, they saw Trump as their only hope". Washington Post. Retrieved November 12, 2016.
- ^ Thomas, Zoe (November 2, 2016). "Coal country West Virginia feels forgotten by politics". BBC News. Retrieved November 12, 2016.
- ^ "West Virginia Election Results 2016". The New York Times. Retrieved November 12, 2016.
- ^ "Oklahoma election results". Retrieved November 27, 2020.
- ^ "West Virginia Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 13, 2020.
- ^ "November 3, 2020 General Election - Official Results". West Virginia State - Clarity Elections. Retrieved November 30, 2020.
External links
[edit]- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "West Virginia", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "West Virginia: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of West Virginia". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- West Virginia at Ballotpedia
