2020 United States presidential election in Oregon
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| Elections in Oregon |
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The 2020 United States presidential election in Oregon was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Oregon voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Oregon has seven electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
Biden won 56.45% of the vote to 40.37% for Trump. Biden received Oregon's seven electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3] The state certified its election results on December 3.[4]
Biden won Oregon by 16.08%, an increase from Hillary Clinton's 11% victory margin in 2016. No Republican presidential candidate has won Oregon since Ronald Reagan of neighboring California in 1984. Biden flipped two counties Trump won in 2016: Marion County, home to the state capital of Salem; and Deschutes County, anchored by fast-growing Bend. This marked the first time since 1964 that a Democrat won an outright majority in Deschutes County, although Democratic presidential nominees in 1976 and 1992 had carried the county with pluralities.[5]
Biden was the first Democrat since Woodrow Wilson in 1916 to win the presidency without carrying Columbia County and Tillamook County. Tillamook and Columbia counties were among a fraction of the more than 3,000 counties in the U.S. to vote twice for Barack Obama (in 2008 and 2012) and twice for Trump (in 2016 and 2020).[6] Biden also made history as the highest vote earner in Oregon history, with 1,340,383 votes, and Biden was able to achieve stronger swings leftward in 28 of Oregon's 36 counties than Hillary Clinton in 2016. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, 33% of voters were secular and supported Biden by 80%.[7]
Primary elections
[edit]The Oregon primary elections were held on Tuesday, May 19, 2020.
Republican primary
[edit]Donald Trump ran unopposed in Oregon, receiving the state's 28 delegates to the Republican National Convention[8]
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[10] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump (incumbent) | 363,785 | 93.70 | 28 |
| Write-ins | 24,461 | 6.30 | 0 |
| Total | 388,246 | 100.00 | 28 |
Democratic primary
[edit]Though all Democrats but Joe Biden had withdrawn from the national race by the Oregon primary, four remained on the ballot. Biden won just under two-thirds of the vote. Bernie Sanders received just over 20% of the vote. Oregon's 71 delegates were allocated with 46 to Biden and 15 to Sanders.[8]
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[12] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 408,315 | 65.99 | 46 |
| Bernie Sanders (withdrawn) | 127,345 | 20.58 | 15 |
| Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) | 59,355 | 9.59 | |
| Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) | 10,717 | 1.73 | |
| Write-in votes | 12,979 | 2.10 | |
| Total | 618,711 | 100% | 61 |
Independent Party of Oregon primary
[edit]The Independent Party of Oregon cross-nominated Joe Biden after an online nonpartisan blanket primary.[13]
| Candidate | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 1,661 | 46.7 |
| Donald Trump | 1,389 | 39.1 |
| Bernie Sanders | 1,227 | 34.5 |
| Total | 4,277 | 100.00 |
| Candidate | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 392 | 55.13 |
| Donald Trump | 280 | 39.38 |
Pacific Green Party primary
[edit]Howie Hawkins won the Oregon Green Party primary.
General election
[edit]Final predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking |
|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[14] | Solid D |
| Inside Elections[15] | Solid D |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[16] | Safe D |
| Politico[17] | Likely D |
| RCP[18] | Lean D |
| Niskanen[19] | Safe D |
| CNN[20] | Solid D |
| The Economist[21] | Safe D |
| CBS News[22] | Likely D |
| 270towin[23] | Safe D |
| ABC News[24] | Solid D |
| NPR[25] | Likely D |
| NBC News[26] | Likely D |
| 538[27] | Solid D |
Polling
[edit]Graphical summary
[edit] | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Polls
[edit]Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided [a] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270 to Win[28] | September 26 – October 17, 2020 | October 20, 2020 | 58.0% | 38.5% | 3.5% | Biden +19.5 |
| FiveThirtyEight[29] | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 58.7% | 37.4% | 3.9% | Biden +21.3 |
| Average | 58.4% | 38.0% | 3.7% | Biden +20.4 | ||
Polls
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Howie Hawkins Pacific Green |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 3,543 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 39%[c] | 59% | – | – | – | – |
| Swayable[31] | Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020 | 324 (LV) | ± 7.3% | 37% | 60% | 1% | 1% | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 5,422 (LV) | – | 38% | 61% | – | – | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 2,109 (LV) | – | 38% | 61% | – | – | – | 2% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos[32] | Sep 26–29, 2020 | 944 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 39% | 56% | – | – | 3%[d] | 2% |
| DHM Research[33] | Sep 3–8, 2020 | 502 (LV) | ± 4% | 39% | 51% | – | – | 6%[e] | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 1,648 (LV) | – | 38% | 60% | – | – | – | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 1,890 (LV) | – | 38% | 61% | – | – | – | 1% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 872 (LV) | – | 39% | 59% | – | – | – | 2% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
1,340,383 | 56.45% | +6.38% | |
| Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence |
958,448 | 40.37% | +1.28% | |
| Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen |
41,582 | 1.75% | −2.96% | |
| Pacific Green | Howie Hawkins Angela Walker |
11,831 | 0.50% | −2.00% | |
| Progressive | Dario Hunter Dawn Neptune Adams |
4,988 | 0.21% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 17,089 | 0.72% | −2.91% | ||
| Total votes | 2,374,321 | 100.00% | |||
By county
[edit]| County | Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Baker | 2,346 | 23.62% | 7,352 | 74.02% | 234 | 2.36% | -5,006 | -50.40% | 9,932 |
| Benton | 35,827 | 67.86% | 14,878 | 28.18% | 2,094 | 3.96% | 20,949 | 39.68% | 52,799 |
| Clackamas | 139,043 | 53.96% | 110,509 | 42.89% | 8,127 | 3.15% | 28,534 | 11.07% | 257,679 |
| Clatsop | 12,916 | 54.02% | 10,218 | 42.74% | 776 | 3.24% | 2,698 | 11.28% | 23,910 |
| Columbia | 13,835 | 42.94% | 17,150 | 53.23% | 1,236 | 3.83% | -3,315 | -10.29% | 32,221 |
| Coos | 14,243 | 38.42% | 21,829 | 58.88% | 1,003 | 2.70% | -7,586 | -20.46% | 37,075 |
| Crook | 3,801 | 24.61% | 11,287 | 73.06% | 360 | 2.33% | -7,486 | -48.45% | 15,448 |
| Curry | 6,058 | 40.59% | 8,484 | 56.84% | 383 | 2.57% | -2,426 | -16.25% | 14,925 |
| Deschutes | 65,962 | 52.67% | 55,646 | 44.43% | 3,626 | 2.90% | 10,316 | 8.24% | 125,234 |
| Douglas | 19,160 | 29.78% | 43,298 | 67.29% | 1,891 | 2.93% | -24,138 | -37.51% | 64,349 |
| Gilliam | 324 | 27.50% | 834 | 70.80% | 20 | 1.70% | -510 | -43.30% | 1,178 |
| Grant | 929 | 20.21% | 3,545 | 77.13% | 122 | 2.66% | -2,616 | -56.92% | 4,596 |
| Harney | 894 | 19.95% | 3,475 | 77.55% | 112 | 2.50% | -2,581 | -57.60% | 4,481 |
| Hood River | 8,764 | 66.95% | 3,955 | 30.21% | 371 | 2.84% | 4,809 | 36.74% | 13,090 |
| Jackson | 59,478 | 46.77% | 63,869 | 50.23% | 3,818 | 3.00% | -4,391 | -3.46% | 127,165 |
| Jefferson | 4,393 | 36.88% | 7,189 | 60.35% | 331 | 2.77% | -2,796 | -23.47% | 11,913 |
| Josephine | 18,451 | 35.73% | 31,751 | 61.48% | 1,439 | 2.79% | -13,300 | -25.75% | 51,641 |
| Klamath | 10,388 | 28.29% | 25,308 | 68.91% | 1,030 | 2.80% | -14,920 | -40.62% | 36,726 |
| Lake | 792 | 18.15% | 3,470 | 79.53% | 101 | 2.32% | -2,678 | -61.38% | 4,363 |
| Lane | 134,366 | 60.46% | 80,336 | 36.15% | 7,551 | 3.39% | 54,030 | 24.31% | 222,253 |
| Lincoln | 17,385 | 56.58% | 12,460 | 40.55% | 881 | 2.87% | 4,925 | 16.03% | 30,726 |
| Linn | 26,512 | 36.50% | 43,486 | 59.87% | 2,642 | 3.63% | -16,974 | -23.37% | 72,640 |
| Malheur | 3,260 | 27.62% | 8,187 | 69.36% | 357 | 3.02% | -4,927 | -41.74% | 11,804 |
| Marion | 80,872 | 48.86% | 79,002 | 47.73% | 5,660 | 3.41% | 1,870 | 1.13% | 165,534 |
| Morrow | 1,371 | 26.79% | 3,586 | 70.07% | 161 | 3.14% | -2,215 | -43.28% | 5,118 |
| Multnomah | 367,249 | 79.21% | 82,995 | 17.90% | 13,415 | 2.89% | 284,254 | 61.31% | 463,659 |
| Polk | 22,917 | 47.46% | 23,732 | 49.14% | 1,642 | 3.40% | -815 | -1.68% | 48,291 |
| Sherman | 260 | 21.52% | 921 | 76.24% | 27 | 2.24% | -661 | -54.72% | 1,208 |
| Tillamook | 8,066 | 47.76% | 8,354 | 49.47% | 468 | 2.77% | -288 | -1.71% | 16,888 |
| Umatilla | 10,707 | 32.41% | 21,270 | 64.38% | 1,061 | 3.21% | -10,563 | -31.97% | 33,038 |
| Union | 4,254 | 28.47% | 10,298 | 68.91% | 392 | 2.62% | -6,044 | -40.44% | 14,944 |
| Wallowa | 1,625 | 31.56% | 3,404 | 66.11% | 120 | 2.33% | -1,779 | -34.55% | 5,149 |
| Wasco | 6,604 | 46.74% | 7,035 | 49.79% | 491 | 3.47% | -431 | -3.05% | 14,130 |
| Washington | 209,940 | 65.54% | 99,073 | 30.93% | 11,313 | 3.53% | 110,867 | 34.61% | 320,326 |
| Wheeler | 217 | 22.49% | 711 | 73.68% | 37 | 3.83% | -494 | -51.19% | 965 |
| Yamhill | 27,174 | 46.12% | 29,551 | 50.15% | 2,198 | 3.73% | -2,377 | -4.03% | 58,923 |
| Total | 1,340,383 | 56.45% | 958,448 | 40.37% | 75,490 | 3.18% | 381,935 | 16.08% | 2,374,321 |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
By congressional district
[edit]Biden won 4 out of 5 congressional districts in Oregon.
| District | Trump | Biden | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 34.1% | 63.3% | Suzanne Bonamici |
| 2nd | 55.6% | 42.1% | Cliff Bentz |
| 3rd | 23.5% | 74.3% | Earl Blumenauer |
| 4th | 46.7% | 50.7% | Peter DeFazio |
| 5th | 43.9% | 53.6% | Kurt Schrader |
Analysis
[edit]Edison exit polls
[edit]| 2020 presidential election in Oregon by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[35][36] | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Demographic subgroup | Biden | Trump | % of
total vote |
| Total vote | 56.45 | 40.37 | 100 |
| Ideology | |||
| Liberals | 96 | 4 | 33 |
| Moderates | 66 | 30 | 37 |
| Conservatives | 8 | 92 | 30 |
| Party | |||
| Democrats | 98 | 2 | 36 |
| Republicans | 7 | 93 | 24 |
| Independents | 52 | 43 | 41 |
| Gender | |||
| Men | 51 | 45 | 50 |
| Women | 63 | 35 | 50 |
| Race/ethnicity | |||
| White | 58 | 39 | 85 |
| Non-white | – | – | 15 |
| Age | |||
| 18–29 years old | – | – | 17 |
| 30–44 years old | 62 | 34 | 24 |
| 45–64 years old | 52 | 48 | 35 |
| 65 and older | 54 | 44 | 24 |
| Sexual orientation | |||
| LGBT | – | – | 8 |
| Not LGBT | 55 | 42 | 92 |
| Education | |||
| High school or less | 38 | 62 | 24 |
| Some college education | 57 | 37 | 34 |
| Associate degree | 57 | 41 | 12 |
| Bachelor's degree | 67 | 30 | 17 |
| Postgraduate degree | 78 | 18 | 13 |
| Region | |||
| Multnomah County | – | – | 20 |
| Portland suburbs | 63 | 35 | 26 |
| Willamette/Northwest | 51 | 45 | 29 |
| East/South | 39 | 57 | 25 |
| Area type | |||
| Urban | 75 | 23 | 32 |
| Suburban | 52 | 44 | 50 |
| Rural | 37 | 58 | 18 |
| Family's financial situation today | |||
| Better than four years ago | 27 | 71 | 41 |
| Worse than four years ago | 84 | 9 | 17 |
| About the same | 73 | 24 | 42 |
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Oregon
- Presidency of Joe Biden
- 2020 United States presidential election
- 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2020 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- ^ "Someone else" with 3%
- ^ "Someone else" with 6%
References
[edit]- ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. September 19, 2019. Retrieved December 24, 2020.
- ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "Oregon secretary of state certifies election results". kgw.com. Retrieved December 5, 2020.
- ^ Warner, Gary (November 20, 2020). "Deschutes joins Oregon's blue hue in presidential voting, and other voting stats". The Bulletin. Retrieved August 3, 2021.
- ^ Warner, Gary A. (January 5, 2022). "A turbulent first week of 2022 election year". Oregon Capital Insider. Retrieved August 4, 2022.
- ^ "Oregon Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
- ^ a b "Biden, Trump win presidential primaries in Oregon". KPTV. Associated Press. May 19, 2020.
- ^ "Oregon Secretary of State". results.oregonvotes.gov. Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved May 20, 2020.
- ^ "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved May 20, 2020.
- ^ "May 19, 2020, Primary Election Abstract of Votes" (PDF). Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
- ^ "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved May 20, 2020.
- ^ "RESULTS AND DATA | 2020 OREGON PRIMARY | Independent Party". Pers. Retrieved July 10, 2020.
- ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
- ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
- ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
- ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
- ^ Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
- ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
- ^ 270 to Win
- ^ FiveThirtyEight
- ^ a b c d e f SurveyMonkey/Axios
- ^ Swayable Archived November 27, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Civiqs/Daily Kos
- ^ DHM Research
- ^ "November 2020 General Election Results" (PDF). Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved December 6, 2020.
- ^ "Oregon 2020 President exit polls". www.cnn.com. Retrieved December 28, 2020.
- ^ "Oregon Exit Polls: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. Retrieved December 28, 2020.
External links
[edit]- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Oregon", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Oregon: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of Oregon". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Oregon at Ballotpedia
