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2024 United States presidential election in Oregon

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2024 United States presidential election in Oregon

← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Reporting
99%
as of Nov. 20, 2024, 1:42 PM PST
 
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state California Florida
Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance
Projected electoral vote 8 0
Popular vote 1,219,839 907,886
Percentage 55.18% 41.07%

County results

President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in Oregon took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Oregon voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Oregon has eight electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.[1]

Harris carried Oregon by 14.1% as of November 20, 2024.

Democrats have won Oregon in every presidential election starting in 1988, and have consistently done so by double digits starting in 2008. A blue state, although not as strongly as neighboring California and Washington, Oregon is part of the Democratic-leaning West Coast, and was predicted to go comfortably for Democrat Kamala Harris (from neighboring California) in 2024.[2]

Primary elections

[edit]

Republican primary

[edit]

The Oregon Republican primary was held on May 21, 2024, the same date as the Kentucky caucuses.

Oregon Republican primary, May 21, 2024[3]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Donald Trump 294,744 91.6% 31 31
Write-in votes 27,209 8.5%
Total: 321,983 100.0% 31 31

Democratic primary

[edit]

The Oregon Democratic primary was held on May 21, 2024, the same date as the Kentucky primary.

Oregon Democratic primary, May 21, 2024[4]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 397,702 87.1% 66 66
Marianne Williamson 33,603 7.4%
Write-in votes 25,135 5.5%
Total: 456,440 100.0% 66 12 78

Minor Parties

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Minor Parties in Oregon nominate by nominating delegates to their national conventions, or for the We the People and Independent parties, holding a nominating convention. They are allowed to self-finance a primary, but no party chose to do so. The following candidates' nominations were accepted by the Oregon Secretary of State:

Minor Party Nominations in Oregon
Party Candidate
Libertarian Chase Oliver
We The People Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
Progressive Party Cornel West
Pacific Green Jill Stein
Constitution Party Randall Terry

The Republican Party issued a legal challenge to Libertarian party ballot access that was rejected by the Secretary of State.[5]

General election

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Oregon is considered solidly Democratic, and Donald Trump did not pay the $3,500 required for a candidate statement in the ballot handbook, although candidate statements were provided by the Democratic, We the People, Libertarian, and Pacific Green candidates.[6] Notably, Oregon's third-largest party, the Independent Party of Oregon, did not nominate a candidate, although it had cross-nominated Joe Biden in 2020.[7]

In the early hours of October 28, an incendiary device was placed in a ballot drop box in Portland. A total of 3 ballots were damaged, while the rest were unharmed due to the ballot box's fire suppression system.[8]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[9] Solid D December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[10] Solid D April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] Safe D June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[12] Safe D August 26, 2024
CNalysis[13] Solid D December 30, 2023
The Economist[14] Safe D September 12, 2024
538[15] Solid D October 23, 2024
NBC News[16] Safe D October 6, 2024
YouGov[17] Safe D October 16, 2024
Split Ticket[18] Safe D November 1, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[19][A] October 16–17, 2024 716 (LV) ± 3.7% 53% 41% 6%
Hoffman Research[20] July 24–26, 2024 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 49% 44% 7%
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Other /
Undecided
Hoffman Research[20] July 24–26, 2024 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 45% 40% 7% 1% 7%
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
The Bullfinch Group[21][B] April 16–23, 2024 250 (RV) ± 6.2% 52% 40% 8%
John Zogby Strategies[22][C] April 13–21, 2024 419 (LV) 47% 44% 9%
Emerson College[23] October 31 – November 1, 2022 975 (LV) ± 3.1% 51% 35% 14%
Emerson College[24] September 30 – October 1, 2022 796 (LV) ± 3.4% 50% 41% 9%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Other /
Undecided
The Bullfinch Group[21][B] April 16–23, 2024 250 (RV) ± 6.2% 40% 29% 19% 1% 3% 8%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[22][C] April 13–21, 2024 419 (LV) 40% 49% 11%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[22][C] April 13–21, 2024 419 (LV) 42% 39% 19%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in Oregon[25]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic 1,219,839 55.18% Decrease 1.27%
Republican 907,886 41.07% Increase 0.70%
We the People
33,203 1.50% N/A
Pacific Green 18,608 0.84% Increase 0.34%
Libertarian 8,872 0.40% Decrease 1.35%
Progressive 5,483 0.25% Increase 0.04%
Constitution 1,817 0.08% N/A
Write-in 14,905 0.67% Decrease 0.05%
Total votes 1,938,079 100.00% N/A

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ a b c d e f Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

Partisan clients

  1. ^ This poll was sponsored by the Northwest Progressive Institute
  2. ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Independent Center
  3. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved December 18, 2023.
  3. ^ "Oregon Presidential Election Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved June 5, 2024.
  4. ^ "Oregon Presidential Primary". The AP. June 4, 2024. Retrieved July 12, 2024.
  5. ^ Shumway, Julia (July 29, 2024). "Despite denials, records show Oregon Republican Party trying to keep Libertarians off the ballot". Oregon Capital Chronicle.
  6. ^ Shumway, Julia (September 3, 2024). "Trump won't appear in Oregon's voters' pamphlet, will still be on ballot". Oregon Capital Chronicle.
  7. ^ "2024 Nominations of the Independent Party of Oregon".
  8. ^ Ortiz, Erik (October 28, 2024). "Ballot drop boxes set on fire in Portland, Ore., and Vancouver, Wash". NBC News. Retrieved October 28, 2024.
  9. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  10. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  11. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  12. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved August 26, 2024.
  13. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  14. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved September 13, 2024.
  15. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 25, 2024.
  16. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  17. ^ "2024 Presidential Election Polls". YouGov.
  18. ^ "2024 Presidential Forcast". Split Ticket. June 2, 2023.
  19. ^ Villeneuve, Andrew (October 17, 2024). "Kamala Harris has a fifteen point lead over Donald Trump in Washington and a twelve point lead in Oregon, NPI polls find". Northwest Progressive Institute.
  20. ^ a b Jaquiss, Nigel (July 30, 2024). "New Poll Shows Harris With 5–Point Lead Over Trump in Oregon". Willamette Week.
  21. ^ a b "Independent Center 2024 Pacific State Survey Toplines" (PDF). The Independent Center. April 23, 2024. Archived from the original (PDF) on May 10, 2024.
  22. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  23. ^ Mumford, Camille (November 4, 2022). "Oregon 2022: Independent Candidates' Support Melts As Democrat Tina Kotek Leads Republican Christine Drazan by Four for Governor". Emerson Polling.
  24. ^ Mumford, Camille (October 4, 2022). "Oregon 2022: Republican Christine Drazan with Two-Point Lead Over Democrat Tina Kotek for Governorship; Sen. Wyden Holds 19-Point Lead in Re-election Bid". Emerson Polling.
  25. ^ "Unofficial General Election November 5, 2024". Oregon SOS. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 20, 2024.