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2024 United States presidential election in Florida

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2024 United States presidential election in Florida

← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Electoral vote 30 0
Popular vote 6,110,125 4,683,038
Percentage 56.09% 42.99%


President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in Florida was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Florida voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Florida has 30 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.[1]

Despite being a heavily populated and fast-growing state once considered a presidential battleground and bellwether, Florida has been trending towards the political right in recent years and is now seen as a moderately red state. Florida is a Southern state substantially in the Bible Belt, having two large distinct cultural areas. North Florida and the Florida Panhandle are part of the conservative Deep South. South Florida has a heavy Latin American influence, with large Catholic Cuban and Puerto Rican populations in the Miami metropolitan area.

In 2020, Republican Donald Trump (who changed his resident state from New York to Florida in 2019[2]) carried the state again by 3.4 percentage points, an improvement from his 1.2% margin in 2016, despite Trump losing re-election nationwide and polls pointing to a narrow Democratic win in Florida. In addition, Republicans won all statewide offices by double-digit margins in the 2022 midterms.[3][4]

On election day, Trump defeated Harris in his home state by 13.1 points, flipping six counties and winning by the biggest margin since 1988.[5] Trump also received the most raw votes for a political candidate ever in the state, breaking his own record from 2020, and marking the first time since 1984 that a Republican netted over a million votes from the state.

On May 23, 2024, the Reform Party of Florida applied to restore ballot access in the state.[6] That same day, the party selected independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for its nomination.[7] On August 23, 2024, Kennedy dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump.[8] This is the first time since 1988 that the state was won with a double digit margin and also voted Republican in three consecutive presidential elections, and Miami-Dade County voted Republican.[9] Trump became the first Republican nominee to win Hillsborough County and Osceola County since 2004.[10] He also flipped back Duval County, Pinellas County, and Seminole County after carrying them in 2016.[11] Following the 2022 midterms, the election has cemented Florida's transition from a swing state to a reliable red state.

Primary elections

[edit]

Republican primary

[edit]

The Florida Republican primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Arizona, Illinois, and Ohio.

Florida Republican primary, March 19, 2024[12]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 911,424 81.19% 125 0 125
Nikki Haley (withdrawn) 155,560 13.86% 0 0 0
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 41,269 3.68% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 8,953 0.80% 0 0 0
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 2,850 0.25% 0 0 0
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) 1,385 0.12% 0 0 0
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) 1,190 0.11% 0 0 0
Total: 1,122,631 100.00% 125 0 125

Democratic primary

[edit]

On November 30, 2023, Politico reported that the Florida Democratic Party had only submitted Biden's name to the Secretary of State, which means that the primary will be cancelled under Florida law. This cancellation was criticized by the Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson campaigns.[13][14] Williamson and fellow Democratic candidate Cenk Uygur held a press conference over Zoom on December 1 criticizing the move.[15] On December 11, 2023, a voter filed a lawsuit in federal court seeking to add Phillips, Williamson, and Uygur's name to the ballot.[16] The voter lost in district court.[17]

Winner (Assumptive)

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Joe Biden

U.S. Representatives

State legislators

Hypothetical polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Hillary
Clinton
Kamala
Harris
Gavin
Newsom
Undecided
Suffolk University[22] Sep 15–18, 2022 163 (LV) 50% 33% 17%
Suffolk University[23] Jan 26–29, 2022 164 (LV) 43% 46% 11%
Victory Insights[24] Sep 16–18, 2021 200 (LV) 60% 17% 23%

General election

[edit]

Trump assassination attempt

[edit]

On September 15, 2024, Trump survived an assassination attempt while golfing at Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida. 58-year-old Ryan Wesley Routh was spotted hiding in nearby shrubbery while aiming a rifle at a member of Trump's security detail.[25] A Secret Service agent fired upon Routh, who fled the scene and was later captured in Martin County.[26] The incident occurred two months after Trump survived a previous assassination attempt while speaking at a campaign rally near Butler, Pennsylvania.

Candidates

[edit]

The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in Florida:[27]

In addition, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. withdrew his name from the ballot after he suspended his campaign.[28]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[29] Likely R August 27, 2024
Inside Elections[30] Lean R August 29, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[31] Likely R August 20, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[32] Likely R October 21, 2024
CNalysis[33] Likely R November 4, 2024
CNN[34] Lean R September 1, 2024
The Economist[35] Likely R June 12, 2024
538[36] Likely R October 8, 2024
NBC News[37] Likely R October 6, 2024
YouGov[38] Lean R October 16, 2024
Split Ticket[39] Likely R November 1, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Undecided
[c]
Margin
270ToWin October 23 – November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 44.6% 51.1% 4.3% Trump +6.5%
538 through November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 44.6% 51.2% 4.2% Trump +6.6%
Silver Bulletin through November 3, 2024 November 3, 2024 44.8% 51.3% 3.9% Trump +6.5%
The Hill/DDHQ through November 3, 2024 November 3, 2024 44.9% 51.6% 3.2% Trump +6.7%
Average 44.7% 51.3% 4.0% Trump +6.6%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
Research Co.[40] November 2–3, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 51% 44% 5%
Victory Insights[41] November 1–2, 2024 400 (LV) 51% 47% 2%[d]
Stetson University[42][43] October 25 – November 1, 2024 452 (LV) ± 5.0% 53% 46% 1%[e]
Morning Consult[44] October 23 − November 1, 2024 2,022 (LV) ± 2.0% 51% 46% 3%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[45] October 19–27, 2024 913 (RV) ± 3.2% 53% 44% 3%[f]
897 (LV) 53% 44% 3%[f]
ActiVote[46] October 11–27, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 56% 44%
St. Pete Polls[47][A] October 23–25, 2024 1,227 (LV) ± 2.8% 50% 45% 5%[g]
CES/YouGov[48] October 1–25, 2024 5,952 (A) 51% 47% 2%
5,916 (LV) 52% 46% 2%
Hunt Research[49][B] October 16–22, 2024 1,234 (LV) ± 2.8% 50% 45% 5%
Emerson College[50] October 18–20, 2024 860 (LV) ± 3.3% 52% 44% 4%[h]
54%[i] 46%
Cherry Communications (R)[51][C] October 10–20, 2024 614 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 45% 4%
ActiVote[52] October 7–20, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 55% 45%
University of North Florida[53] October 7–18, 2024 977 (LV) ± 3.5% 53% 43% 4%[j]
RMG Research[54][D] October 14–17, 2024 788 (LV) ± 3.5% 52% 45% 3%[k]
52%[i] 47% 1%
Rose Institute/YouGov[55] October 7–17, 2024 1,094 (RV) ± 3.5% 50% 45% 7%[l]
1,094 (RV) 51%[i] 46% 3%
1,076 (LV) 51% 46% 3%
The Terrance Group (R)[56][E] October 5–8, 2024 818 (RV) ± 3.5% 51% 44% 5%
Marist College[57] October 3–7, 2024 1,410 (RV) ± 3.3% 51% 47% 2%[m]
1,257 (LV) ± 3.6% 51% 47% 2%[m]
New York Times/Siena College[58] September 29 – October 6, 2024 622 (LV) ± 5.0% 55% 41% 4%
ActiVote[59] September 17 – October 6, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 53% 47%
Mason-Dixon[60][F] October 1–4, 2024 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 43% 8%[n]
RMG Research[61][D] September 25–27, 2024 774 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 47% 3%[k]
50%[i] 48% 2%
Public Policy Polling (D)[62][G] September 25–26, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 50% 46% 4%
Victory Insights[63] September 22–25, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 45% 8%
The Bullfinch Group[64][H] September 20–23, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 48% 47% 5%
Morning Consult[44] September 9−18, 2024 2,948 (LV) ± 2.0% 50% 47% 3%
Morning Consult[44] August 30 – September 8, 2024 3,182 (LV) ± 2.0% 49% 47% 4%
Emerson College[65] September 3–5, 2024 815 (LV) ± 3.4% 50% 45% 5%
51%[i] 48% 1%[h]
ActiVote[66] August 16–31, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 53% 47%
Cherry Communications (R)[67][C] August 15–26, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 52% 45% 3%
Public Policy Polling (D)[68][G] August 21–22, 2024 837 (RV) ± 3.4% 51% 47% 2%
ActiVote[69] August 5–15, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 54% 46%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[70] August 10–11, 2024 1,055 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 46% 5%[o]
1,040 (LV) 50% 47% 3%[f]
University of North Florida[71] July 24–27, 2024 774 (LV) ± 4.6% 49% 42% 9%[p]
July 21, 2024 Kamala Harris declares her candidacy.
InsiderAdvantage (R)[72][I] July 15–16, 2024 800 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 39% 12%[q]
Suffolk University/USA Today[22] September 15–18, 2022 500 (LV) 46% 44% 10%
Victory Insights[24] September 16–18, 2021 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 49% 51%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Chase
Oliver
Libertarian
Other /
Undecided
Focaldata[73] October 3 – November 1, 2024 1,250 (LV) 52% 45% 0% 0% 3%
1,099 (RV) ± 2.8% 50% 46% 1% 0% 3%
1,250 (A) 49% 47% 1% 0% 3%
Cygnal (R)[74] October 26–28, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 43% 1% 1% 7%[r]
Hunt Research[49][B] October 16–22, 2024 1,234 (LV) ± 2.8% 50% 44% 0% 0% 6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[75] October 16–18, 2024 1,275 (LV) 49% 45% 0% 1% 6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[76] October 12–14, 2024 1,009 (LV) 50% 44% 1% 0% 5%
New York Times/Siena College[58] September 29 – October 6, 2024 622 (LV) ± 5.0% 53% 40% 0% 1% 6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[77] September 27 – October 2, 2024 2,946 (LV) 49% 45% 1% 1% 4%
Public Policy Polling (D)[62][G] September 25–26, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 49% 45% 0% 1% 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[78] September 16–19, 2024 1,602 (LV) 50% 45% 0% 1% 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[79] September 6–9, 2024 1,465 (LV) 50% 44% 0% 0% 6%
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Chase
Oliver
Libertarian
Other /
Undecided
New York Times/Siena College[58] September 29 – October 6, 2024 622 (LV) ± 5.0% 53% 40% 0% 0% 0% 1% 6%
August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
Public Policy Polling (D)[68][G] August 21–22, 2024 837 (RV) ± 3.4% 48% 45% 2% 1% 1% 3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[80] August 12–15, 2024 1,296 (LV) 48% 43% 3% 0% 1% 5%
Suffolk University/USA Today[81][J] August 7–11, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 42% 5% 0% 0% 1% 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[82] July 31 – August 3, 2024 976 (LV) 47% 41% 5% 0% 1% 6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[83] July 22–24, 2024 572 (LV) 47% 39% 5% 0% 1% 8%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent
Other /
Undecided
August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[84] August 10–11, 2024 1,055 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 44% 5% 4%[f]
1,040 (LV) 47% 45% 5% 3%[f]
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[85][K] August 6–8, 2024 800 (LV) 52% 44% 3% 1%
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
InsiderAdvantage (R)[72][I] July 15–16, 2024 800 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 44% 6%[s]
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[86] June 8–9, 2024 883 (RV) ± 3.3% 46% 42% 13%
771 (LV) 49% 43% 8%
The Tyson Group (R)[87] June 6–9, 2024 1,050 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 36% 18%
Fox News[88] June 1–4, 2024 1,075 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 46% 4%
CBS News/YouGov[89] May 10–16, 2024 1,209 (RV) ± 3.9% 54% 45% 1%
Prime Group[90][L] May 9–16, 2024 486 (RV) 53% 47%
Cherry Communications (R)[91][C] April 28 – May 7, 2024 609 (RV) ± 4.0% 51% 42% 7%
John Zogby Strategies[92][M] April 13–21, 2024 749 (LV) 51% 42% 7%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[93] April 15–17, 2024 865 (RV) ± 3.3% 50% 42% 8%
815 (LV) 51% 43% 6%
Emerson College[94] April 9–10, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 51% 38% 11%
56%[i] 44%
St. Pete Polls[95] March 11–13, 2024 1,963 (LV) ± 2.2% 48% 42% 10%
Cygnal (R)[96] November 13–15, 2023 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 48% 43% 9%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[97] October 27 – November 11, 2023 946 (RV) ± 3.2% 49% 39% 12%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[98] October 7–9, 2023 1,100 (RV) 44% 39% 17%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[99] June 27 – July 1, 2023 933 (RV) ± 3.2% 49% 39% 2%
Metropolitan Research Services[100] March 15–19, 2023 1,001 (RV) 47% 43% 10%
Emerson College[101] March 13–15, 2023 1,153 (RV) ± 2.8% 44% 44% 12%
University of North Florida[102] February 25 – March 7, 2023 1,452 (RV) ± 2.6% 50% 43% 7%
Victory Insights[103] November 16–17, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.1% 49% 51%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[104][N] November 8–9, 2022 1,224 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 40% 11%
Florida Atlantic University[105] October 12–16, 2022 719 (LV) ± 3.7% 45% 41% 14%
Suffolk University[22] September 15–18, 2022 500 (LV) 47% 44% 9%
Echelon Insights[106] August 31 – September 7, 2022 815 (LV) ± 4.3% 49% 41% 10%
Suffolk University[107] January 26–29, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 44% 9%
Victory Insights[24] September 16–18, 2021 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 49% 51%
St. Pete Polls[108][A] August 16–17, 2021 2,068 (RV) ± 2.2% 47% 48% 5%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[109][O] August 4–10, 2021 700 (RV) ± 3.7% 42% 50% 8%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
Fox News[88] June 1–4, 2024 1,075 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 40% 7% 2% 1% 3%
Prime Group[90][L] May 9–16, 2024 486 (RV) 48% 39% 9% 3% 1%
Emerson College[94] April 9–10, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 35% 6% 1% 1% 8%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent
Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[86] June 8–9, 2024 883 (A) ± 3.3% 43% 37% 10% 10%
771 (LV) 45% 40% 8% 6%
Cherry Communications (R)[91][C] April 28 – May 7, 2024 609 (RV) ± 4.0% 46% 37% 10% 7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[110] May 2–4, 2024 586 (LV) ± 3.7% 47% 38% 6% 9%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[93] April 15–17, 2024 865 (RV) ± 3.3% 48% 38% 7% 7%
815 (LV) 49% 40% 6% 5%
USA Today/Ipsos[111] April 5–7, 2024 1,014 (A) ± 4.1% 39% 31% 7% 23%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[112] March 14–17, 2024 815 (LV) 46% 39% 7% 8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[113] December 28–30, 2023 1,147 (LV) 45% 34% 9% 12%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[114] November 27–29, 2023 897 (LV) 44% 34% 9% 13%
Cygnal (R)[96] November 13–15, 2023 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 44% 37% 11% 8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[98] October 7–9, 2023 1100 (LV) 44% 37% 8% 11%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[92][M] April 13–21, 2024 749 (LV) 48% 37% 15%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[92][M] April 13–21, 2024 749 (LV) 47% 40% 13%

Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Hillary
Clinton
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
Suffolk University[107] January 26–29, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 42% 9%

Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Nikki
Haley
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent
Other /
Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[114] November 27–29, 2023 897 (LV) 27% 32% 16% 24%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Ron
DeSantis
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent
Other /
Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[114] November 27–29, 2023 897 (LV) 38% 34% 12% 16%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Ron
DeSantis
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
Cygnal (R)[96] November 13–15, 2023 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 46% 43% 11%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[97] October 27 – November 11, 2023 946 (RV) ± 3.2% 47% 39% 15%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[99] June 27 – July 1, 2023 933 (RV) ± 3.2% 49% 36% 15%
Emerson College[101] March 13–15, 2023 1,153 (RV) ± 2.8% 46% 43% 11%
University of North Florida[102] February 25 – March 7, 2023 1,452 (RV) ± 2.6% 51% 42% 8%
Cherry Communications[115][C] February 10–19, 2023 608 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 38% 13%
Victory Insights[103] November 16–17, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.1% 53% 47%
Suffolk University[22] September 15–18, 2022 500 (LV) 52% 44% 4%
Echelon Insights[106] August 31 – September 7, 2022 815 (LV) ± 4.3% 51% 42% 7%
Suffolk University[107] January 26–29, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 52% 44% 4%
Victory Insights[24] September 16–18, 2021 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 49% 51%
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R)[116] September 11–12, 2021 1,144 (LV) ± 3.1% 45% 55%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[109] August 4–10, 2021 700 (RV) ± 3.7% 47% 49% 4%

Ron DeSantis vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Ron
DeSantis
Republican
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
Suffolk University[22] September 15–18, 2022 500 (LV) 52% 40% 8%
Victory Insights[24] September 16–18, 2021 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 51% 49%

Ron DeSantis vs. Hillary Clinton

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Ron
DeSantis
Republican
Hillary
Clinton
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
Suffolk University[107] January 26–29, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 53% 40% 7%

Results

[edit]
Shows counties that flipped from one party to another in Florida from the 2020 to 2024 presidential election.
2024 United States presidential election in Florida[117]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican 6,110,125 56.09% Increase 4.87%
Democratic 4,683,038 42.99% Decrease 4.87%
Green 43,155 0.40% Increase 0.27%
Libertarian 31,972 0.29% Decrease 0.35%
Socialism and Liberation
11,969 0.11% Increase 0.06%
American Solidarity
7,454 0.07% N/A
Constitution 5,834 0.05% Increase 0.01%
Write-in 205 0.00% N/A
Total votes 10,893,752 100.00%

By county

[edit]
County Donald Trump
Republican
Kamala Harris
Democratic
Various candidates
Write-ins
Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Alachua 52,939 38.56% 81,578 59.42% 2,765 2.02% -28,639 -20.86% 137,282
Baker 12,926 86.11% 1,982 13.20% 103 0.69% 10,944 72.91% 15,011
Bay 71,497 72.84% 25,201 25.67% 1,459 1.49% 46,296 47.17% 98,157
Bradford 10,920 78.27% 2,946 21.12% 86 0.61% 7,974 57.15% 13,952
Brevard 216,533 59.65% 141,233 38.91% 5,249 1.44% 75,300 20.74% 363,015
Broward 358,952 40.92% 507,328 57.83% 10,982 1.25% -148,376 -16.91% 877,262
Calhoun 5,367 83.29% 1,021 15.84% 56 0.87% 4,346 67.45% 6,444
Charlotte 82,480 66.45% 40,450 32.59% 1,188 0.96% 42,030 33.86% 124,118
Citrus 71,356 72.41% 26,276 26.67% 908 0.92% 45,080 45.74% 98,540
Clay 87,711 68.90% 37,926 29.79% 1,665 1.31% 49,785 39.11% 127,302
Collier 143,267 65.89% 71,720 32.98% 2,447 1.13% 71,547 32.91% 217,434
Columbia 25,108 74.53% 8,250 24.49% 332 0.98% 16,858 50.04% 33,690
DeSoto 8,888 70.96% 3,525 28.14% 112 0.90% 5,363 42.82% 12,525
Dixie 6,920 84.77% 1,183 14.49% 60 0.74% 5,737 70.28% 8,163
Duval 236,285 49.92% 229,365 48.46% 7,683 1.62% 6,920 1.46% 473,333
Escambia 96,407 58.96% 64,601 39.51% 2,496 1.53% 31,806 19.45% 163,504
Flagler 51,014 63.59% 28,431 35.44% 772 0.97% 22,583 28.15% 80,217
Franklin 4,831 71.20% 1,870 27.56% 84 1.24% 2,961 43.64% 6,785
Gadsden 7,495 34.17% 14,203 64.76% 234 1.07% -6,708 -30.59% 21,932
Gilchrist 8,931 83.27% 1,662 15.50% 132 1.23% 7,269 67.77% 10,725
Glades 4,034 76.11% 1,222 23.06% 44 0.83% 2,812 53.05% 5,300
Gulf 6,684 76.62% 1,970 22.58% 70 0.80% 4,714 54.04% 8,724
Hamilton 3,964 68.92% 1,727 30.02% 61 1.06% 2,237 38.90% 5,752
Hardee 6,336 77.65% 1,751 21.46% 73 0.89% 4,585 56.19% 8,160
Hendry 9,253 68.61% 4,096 30.37% 138 1.02% 5,157 38.24% 13,487
Hernando 75,446 67.94% 34,431 31.00% 1,175 1.06% 41,015 36.94% 111,052
Highlands 36,382 69.92% 15,227 29.27% 422 0.81% 21,155 40.65% 52,031
Hillsborough 342,017 50.68% 321,455 47.63% 11,435 1.69% 20,562 3.05% 674,907
Holmes 8,193 89.72% 882 9.66% 57 0.62% 7,311 80.06% 9,132
Indian River 62,737 63.06% 35,654 35.84% 1,102 1.10% 27,083 27.22% 99,493
Jackson 16,074 72.56% 5,892 26.60% 186 0.84% 10,182 45.96% 22,152
Jefferson 5,011 58.73% 3,429 40.19% 92 1.08% 1,582 18.54% 8,532
Lafayette 3,296 87.50% 441 11.71% 30 0.79% 2,855 75.79% 3,767
Lake 140,500 61.75% 84,546 37.16% 2,468 1.09% 55,954 24.59% 227,514
Lee 250,661 63.60% 139,240 35.33% 4,204 1.07% 111,421 28.27% 394,105
Leon 60,397 38.29% 94,520 59.93% 2,810 1.78% -34,123 -21.64% 157,727
Levy 18,245 74.62% 5,994 24.51% 212 0.87% 12,251 50.11% 24,451
Liberty 2,898 82.89% 566 16.19% 32 0.92% 2,332 66.70% 3,496
Madison 5,874 64.01% 3,231 35.21% 71 0.78% 2,643 28.80% 9,176
Manatee 140,486 61.13% 86,674 37.72% 2,652 1.15% 53,812 23.41% 229,812
Marion 140,173 65.27% 72,436 33.73% 2,134 1.00% 67,737 31.54% 214,743
Martin 64,121 64.90% 33,539 33.95% 1,136 1.15% 30,582 30.95% 98,796
Miami-Dade 605,590 55.19% 480,355 43.78% 11,264 1.03% 125,235 11.41% 1,097,209
Monroe 26,064 58.57% 17,933 40.30% 505 1.13% 8,131 18.27% 44,502
Nassau 47,945 72.72% 17,143 26.00% 846 1.28% 30,802 46.72% 65,934
Okaloosa 80,309 70.31% 32,074 28.08% 1,842 1.61% 48,235 42.23% 114,225
Okeechobee 12,315 76.51% 3,671 22.81% 110 0.68% 8,644 53.70% 16,096
Orange 258,279 42.37% 340,807 55.91% 10,521 1.72% -82,528 -13.54% 609,607
Osceola 86,713 50.04% 84,205 48.59% 2,371 1.37% 2,508 1.45% 173,289
Palm Beach 366,836 49.01% 372,512 49.77% 9,141 1.22% -5,676 -0.76% 748,489
Pasco 197,779 61.87% 117,450 36.74% 4,435 1.39% 80,329 25.13% 319,664
Pinellas 269,472 51.89% 242,452 46.68% 7,416 1.43% 27,020 5.21% 519,340
Polk 209,044 59.71% 136,879 39.10% 4,191 1.19% 72,165 20.61% 350,114
Putnam 26,700 73.41% 9,354 25.72% 316 0.87% 17,346 47.69% 36,370
St. Johns 128,759 64.87% 66,862 33.68% 2,875 1.45% 61,897 31.19% 198,496
St. Lucie 100,293 54.00% 83,517 44.97% 1,922 1.03% 16,776 9.03% 185,732
Santa Rosa 84,314 74.67% 27,035 23.94% 1,561 1.39% 57,279 50.73% 112,910
Sarasota 163,219 58.48% 112,668 40.37% 3,214 1.15% 50,551 18.11% 279,101
Seminole 129,735 50.90% 120,717 47.37% 4,408 1.73% 9,018 3.53% 254,860
Sumter 72,134 68.30% 32,551 30.82% 923 0.88% 39,583 37.48% 105,608
Suwannee 17,561 79.98% 4,217 19.21% 179 0.81% 13,344 60.77% 21,957
Taylor 7,954 79.37% 1,991 19.87% 77 0.76% 5,963 59.50% 10,022
Union 5,224 83.64% 971 15.55% 51 0.81% 4,253 68.09% 6,246
Volusia 187,691 60.23% 120,132 38.55% 3,821 1.22% 67,559 21.68% 311,644
Wakulla 14,246 71.51% 5,441 27.31% 236 1.18% 8,805 44.20% 19,923
Walton 38,970 78.25% 10,287 20.66% 545 1.09% 28,683 57.59% 49,802
Washington 10,370 82.14% 2,140 16.95% 115 0.91% 8,230 65.19% 12,625
Totals 6,110,125 55.87% 4,683,038 42.82% 142,302 1.31% 1,427,087 13.05% 10,935,465

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Trump won 20 of 28 congressional districts.[118]

District Trump Harris Representative
1st 68% 31% Matt Gaetz
2nd 59% 40% Neal Dunn
3rd 60% 39% Kat Cammack
4th 55% 43% Aaron Bean
5th 60% 39% John Rutherford
6th 65% 35% Michael Waltz
7th 56% 43% Cory Mills
8th 61% 38% Bill Posey (118th Congress)
Mike Haridopolos (119th Congress)
9th 48% 51% Darren Soto
10th 38% 61% Maxwell Frost
11th 58% 41% Daniel Webster
12th 67% 32% Gus Bilirakis
13th 55% 43% Anna Paulina Luna
14th 45% 53% Kathy Castor
15th 55% 44% Laurel Lee
16th 57% 42% Vern Buchanan
17th 62% 38% Greg Steube
18th 64% 35% Scott Franklin
19th 64% 35% Byron Donalds
20th 30% 69% Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick
21st 58% 41% Brian Mast
22nd 47% 52% Lois Frankel
23rd 48% 50% Jared Moskowitz
24th 34% 64% Frederica Wilson
25th 47% 52% Debbie Wasserman Schultz
26th 67% 32% Mario Díaz-Balart
27th 57% 42% María Elvira Salazar
28th 62% 37% Carlos A. Giménez

Analysis

[edit]

Voter demographics

[edit]
2024 presidential election in Florida voter demographics[119]
Demographic subgroup Trump Harris % of
total vote
Ideology
Liberals 11 85 19
Moderates 45 53 44
Conservatives 89 9 37
Party
Democrats 3 96 25
Republicans 93 7 39
Independents 51 44 36
Gender
Men 61 37 46
Women 50 48 54
Race/ethnicity
White 61 37 59
Black 15 82 12
Latino 58 40 24
Asian n/a n/a 2
All other races 67 30 3
Cuban/Puerto Rican descent
Cuban descent 72 28 6
Puerto Rican descent 44 51 7
Gender by race/ethnicity
White men 67 32 27
White women 56 41 32
Black men 21 75 5
Black women 11 88 7
Latino men 64 35 12
Latina women 52 46 12
All other races 67 32 5
Age
18–29 years old 43 53 14
30–44 years old 54 43 23
45–64 years old 59 40 35
65 and older 57 41 28
First time voter
Yes 53 46 11
No 56 41 89
2020 presidential vote
Biden 7 91 38
Trump 96 3 47
Another candidate n/a n/a 2
Did not vote 54 45 11
Education
No college degree 57 41 64
College graduate 52 46 36
Education by race
White college graduates 55 43 24
White no college degree 65 33 35
Non-White college graduates 46 52 12
Non-White no college degree 46 52 28
Area type
Urban 49 49 47
Suburban 60 38 45
Rural 61 34 9
Biden job approval
Strongly disapprove 92 5 50
Somewhat disapprove 53 43 15
Somewhat approve 4 95 18
Strongly approve 2 96 15
Feeling about the way things are going in U.S.
Angry 75 20 27
Dissatisfied 59 39 51
Satisfied 17 83 15
Enthusiastic n/a n/a 5
Quality of candidate that mattered most
Has ability to lead 72 27 34
Can bring needed change 72 24 28
Has good judgment 19 79 18
Cares about people like me 26 70 18
Vote for president mainly
For your candidate 60 38 75
Against their opponent 33 64 21
Issue regarded as most important
Democracy 17 79 30
Economy 78 21 37
Abortion 21 79 11
Immigration 87 13 15
Foreign policy n/a n/a 3
Democracy threatened in the United States
Democracy in the U.S. very threatened 54 42 39
Democracy in the U.S. somewhat threatened 55 43 33
Democracy in the U.S. somewhat secure 48 52 18
Democracy in the U.S. very secure n/a n/a 8
Confident election being conducted fairly and accurately
Very confident 49 48 38
Somewhat confident 58 40 43
Not very confident 61 34 13
Not at all confident n/a n/a 5
Condition of the nation's economy
Poor 84 13 40
Not so good 62 36 32
Good 6 92 21
Excellent n/a n/a 6
Family's financial situation today
Worse than four years ago 82 15 56
About the same 26 71 25
Better than four years ago 14 86 18
Abortion should be
Legal in all cases 22 73 26
Legal in most cases 46 52 37
Illegal in most cases 93 6 27
Illegal in all cases n/a n/a 6

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b Biden-Harris Campaign National Advisory Board member
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ^ "Other" with 2%
  5. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  6. ^ a b c d e "Another candidate" with 1%
  7. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  8. ^ a b "Someone else" with 1%
  9. ^ a b c d e f With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  10. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  11. ^ a b "Some other candidate" with 1%
  12. ^ "Other" with 5%
  13. ^ a b "Another party's candidates" with 1%
  14. ^ "One of the other party tickets" with 2%
  15. ^ "Another candidate" with 2%
  16. ^ "Another candidate" with 4%
  17. ^ "Another candidate" with 7%
  18. ^ Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) & Peter Sonski (ASP) with 1% each; Randall Terry (C) with 0%
  19. ^ "Another candidate" with 3%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b Poll conducted for Florida Politics
  2. ^ a b Poll conducted for Florida State University
  3. ^ a b c d e Poll sponsored by Florida Chamber of Commerce
  4. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
  5. ^ Poll sponsored by the Republican Party of Florida
  6. ^ Poll conducted for WTVJ & WSCV
  7. ^ a b c d Poll commissioned by Clean and Prosperous America PAC
  8. ^ Poll conducted for The Independent Center
  9. ^ a b Poll conducted for WTVT
  10. ^ Poll sponsored by WSVN-TV
  11. ^ Poll sponsored by Associated Industries of Florida
  12. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump and third party candidates
  13. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  14. ^ Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
  15. ^ Poll sponsored by BUSR

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[edit]
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