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2024 United States presidential election in South Carolina

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2024 United States presidential election in South Carolina
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Turnout76.76% Increase 4.7%
 
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Electoral vote 9 0
Popular vote 1,483,747 1,028,452
Percentage 58.23% 40.36%
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Elections in South Carolina
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Columbia
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Mayoral elections

The 2024 United States presidential election in South Carolina took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. South Carolina voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of South Carolina has nine electoral votes in the Electoral College.[1]

A Southern state in the heart of the Bible Belt, no Democrat has won South Carolina's electoral votes since Jimmy Carter of neighboring Georgia, in 1976, nor has it been contested at the presidential level since 2008, when Barack Obama lost the state by 9 points.

Incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden initially ran for re-election and became the party's presumptive nominee.[2] However, following what was widely viewed as a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and amid increasing age and health concerns from within his party, he withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day. Biden's withdrawal from the race makes him the first eligible president not to stand for re-election since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968.

Former President and Republican nominee Donald Trump ran for re-election to a second non-consecutive term after losing in 2020.[3] Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gathered the required signatures to be on the ballot. Despite that, he dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump.[4]

South Carolina voted for Trump by a comfortable margin in the election, with him winning the state by 17.9%.[5] Trump received more than 1.48 million votes which was a record for votes cast for any candidate in the history of South Carolina. This was the largest Republican win in the state since 1988.

Trump was able to increase his support and gain ground in every county. Trump flipped Jasper County into the Republican column for the first time in a presidential race since Richard Nixon in 1972.

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article: 2024 South Carolina Democratic presidential primary

On February 4, 2023, the Democratic National Committee approved a new 2024 primary calendar, moving South Carolina to hold its race first on February 3, 2024.[6] Due to protests to the change, the New Hampshire primary was scheduled for January 23, maintaining its traditional "first-in-the-nation" status. However, the primary was deemed non-binding, so the South Carolina primary was the first contest in which candidates could earn delegates.[7] President Biden won the primary in a landslide, winning all 55 of the state's unbound delegates.[8] The Democratic primary recorded low voter turnout among registered voters, with only 4% participating.[9]

The South Carolina Democratic primary was held on February 3, 2024.

Popular vote share by county
  Biden
  •   >90%
South Carolina Democratic primary, February 3, 2024[10]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 126,493 96.2% 55 TBD 55
Marianne Williamson 2,732 2.1% 0 TBD 0
Dean Phillips 2,247 1.7% 0 0
Total: 131,472 100% 55 10 65

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article: 2024 South Carolina Republican presidential primary

The South Carolina Republican primary was held on February 24, 2024, the fifth contest in the nationwide Republican primaries. Nikki Haley, who served as the governor of South Carolina from 2011 to 2017, lost her home state to former president Donald Trump by 20 points. Trump won six congressional districts, earning a total of 47 delegates. Haley won the 1st district, earning three delegates. The Republican primary recorded a voter turnout of 23% among its registered voters, passing its 2016 turnout record.[11]

Popular vote share by county
  Trump
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Haley
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
South Carolina Republican primary, February 24, 2024[12]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 452,496 59.79% 47 47
Nikki Haley 299,084 39.52% 3 3
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 2,953 0.39%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 726 0.10%
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 658 0.09%
Ryan Binkley 528 0.07%
David Stuckenberg 361 0.05%
Total: 756,806 100.00% 50 0 50
Source: [13]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[14] Solid R December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[15] Solid R April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[16] Safe R June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[17] Safe R December 14, 2023
CNalysis[18] Solid R December 30, 2023
CNN[19] Solid R January 14, 2024
The Economist[20] Safe R October 16, 2024
538[21] Solid R October 21, 2024
RCP[22] Likely R June 26, 2024
NBC News[23] Safe R October 6, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
ActiVote[24] October 5–29, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 58.5% 41.5% –
ActiVote[25] September 9 – October 17, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 58% 42% –
Winthrop University[26] September 21–29, 2024 1,068 (LV) ± 3.0% 52% 42% 6%[b]

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
The Citadel[27] October 17–25, 2024 1,241 (RV) ± 3.6% 53% 41% 0% 0% 0% 6%
1,136 (LV) 54% 42% 0% 0% 0% 4%
East Carolina University[28] October 18–22, 2024 950 (LV) ± 3.0% 55% 42% – – 1% 2%
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[29][A] April 13–21, 2024 501 (LV) – 52% 40% 8%
Emerson College[30] February 14–16, 2024 1,197 (RV) ± 3.0% 51% 37% 12%
The Citadel[31] February 5–11, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 4.1% 54% 35% 11%
Winthrop University[32] February 2–10, 2024 1,717 (RV) ± 2.4% 50% 35% 15%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[33] February 1–8, 2024 679 (RV) ± 3.8% 52% 34% 14%
643 (LV) 54% 36% 10%
Echelon Insights[34] August 31 – September 7, 2022 600 (LV) ± 5.1% 51% 39% 10%
Blueprint Polling (D)[35] August 24–25, 2022 721 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 34% 20%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein vs. Joe Manchin

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Joe
Manchin
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
The Citadel[31] February 5–11, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 4.1% 49% 32% 9% 3% 4% 3%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Nikki
Haley
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
The Citadel[31] February 5–11, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 4.1% 50% 28% 22%
Winthrop University[32] February 2–10, 2024 1,717 (RV) ± 2.4% 47% 29% 24%

Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein vs. Joe Manchin

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Nikki
Haley
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Joe
Manchin
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
The Citadel[31] February 5–11, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 4.1% 41% 25% 20% 3% 4% 7%

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[29][A] April 13–21, 2024 501 (LV) – 47% 40% 13%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[29][A] April 13–21, 2024 501 (LV) – 50% 35% 15%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Echelon Insights[34] August 31 – September 7, 2022 600 (LV) ± 5.1% 42% 42% 16%

Ballot changes after the primaries

[edit]

On July 21, 2024, Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the Presidential race and endorsed Kamala Harris.[36][37] Harris and running mate Tim Walz replaced Biden on the South Carolina ballot.

On August 23, 2024, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., suspended his presidential campaign and endorsed Donald Trump.[38][39] The Alliance Party of South Carolina removed Kennedy's name from the ballot, fielding no presidential candidate on their ticket for the year.[40]

South Carolina political parties had until September 3 to make final changes and certify their presidential and vice presidential candidates for the state ballot.[41]

Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in South Carolina[42]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican
1,483,747 58.23% +3.12%
Democratic
1,028,452 40.36% −3.07%
Libertarian
12,669 0.50% −0.61%
Green
8,117 0.32% +0.05%
Constitution
5,352 0.21%
South Carolina Workers Party
3,059 0.12%
United Citizens
6,744 0.26%
Write-in
Total votes 2,548,140 100%

By county

[edit]
County Donald Trump
Republican 		Kamala Harris
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Abbeville 8,509 70.63% 3,399 28.21% 140 1.16% 5,110 42.42% 12,048
Aiken 53,592 62.25% 31,298 36.35% 1,201 1.40% 22,294 25.90% 86,091
Allendale 813 26.89% 2,165 71.62% 45 1.49% -1,352 -44.73% 3,023
Anderson 71,828 73.07% 25,281 25.72% 1,187 1.21% 46,547 47.35% 98,296
Bamberg 2,376 41.73% 3,245 56.99% 73 1.28% -869 -15.26% 5,694
Barnwell 5,605 57.18% 4,082 41.64% 116 1.18% 1,523 15.54% 9,803
Beaufort 59,123 56.63% 44,002 42.15% 1,278 1.22% 15,121 14.48% 104,403
Berkeley 64,777 57.41% 46,416 41.14% 1,641 1.45% 18,361 16.27% 112,834
Calhoun 4,474 56.53% 3,339 42.19% 101 1.28% 1,135 14.34% 7,914
Charleston 99,265 46.27% 111,427 51.94% 3,829 1.79% -12,162 -5.67% 214,521
Cherokee 18,697 75.27% 5,939 23.91% 203 0.82% 12,758 51.36% 24,839
Chester 9,030 58.05% 6,353 40.84% 173 1.11% 2,677 17.21% 15,556
Chesterfield 11,682 63.52% 6,520 35.45% 189 1.03% 5,162 28.07% 18,391
Clarendon 9,065 55.55% 7,064 43.28% 191 1.17% 2,001 12.27% 16,320
Colleton 10,696 58.52% 7,376 40.36% 204 1.12% 3,320 18.16% 18,276
Darlington 17,017 56.10% 12,977 42.78% 337 1.12% 4,040 13.32% 30,331
Dillon 6,526 55.02% 5,241 44.19% 94 0.79% 1,285 10.83% 11,861
Dorchester 43,839 56.37% 32,489 41.78% 1,436 1.85% 11,350 14.59% 77,764
Edgefield 9,092 65.32% 4,659 33.47% 168 1.21% 4,433 31.85% 13,919
Fairfield 4,792 42.73% 6,277 55.97% 146 1.30% -1,485 -13.24% 11,215
Florence 32,615 53.34% 27,706 45.32% 819 1.34% 4,909 8.02% 61,140
Georgetown 22,326 59.14% 14,965 39.64% 463 1.22% 7,361 19.50% 37,754
Greenville 158,451 60.21% 100,074 38.01% 4,791 1.78% 58,377 22.20% 263,316
Greenwood 19,715 63.83% 10,766 34.85% 407 1.32% 8,949 28.98% 30,888
Hampton 3,801 46.17% 4,328 52.57% 104 1.26% -527 -6.40% 8,233
Horry 141,719 68.81% 62,325 30.26% 1,910 0.93% 79,394 38.55% 205,954
Jasper 9,900 54.32% 8,144 44.68% 183 1.00% 1,756 9.64% 18,227
Kershaw 21,289 63.49% 11,826 35.27% 418 1.24% 9,463 28.22% 33,533
Lancaster 33,623 61.78% 20,146 37.01% 658 1.21% 13,477 24.77% 54,427
Laurens 21,110 69.87% 8,769 29.02% 334 1.11% 12,341 40.85% 30,213
Lee 3,078 38.11% 4,505 55.78% 493 6.11% -1,427 -17.67% 8,076
Lexington 96,965 66.01% 47,815 32.55% 2,123 1.44% 49,150 33.46% 146,903
Marion 5,906 44.11% 7,316 54.65% 166 1.24% -1,410 -10.54% 13,388
Marlboro 4,896 48.23% 5,137 50.60% 119 1.17% -241 -2.37% 10,152
McCormick 3,565 57.94% 2,513 40.84% 75 1.22% 1,052 17.10% 6,153
Newberry 12,067 66.56% 5,841 32.22% 221 1.22% 6,226 34.34% 18,129
Oconee 31,772 75.18% 9,987 23.63% 505 1.19% 21,785 51.55% 42,264
Orangeburg 13,750 37.19% 22,832 61.76% 388 1.05% -9,082 -24.57% 36,970
Pickens 45,728 75.64% 13,891 22.98% 832 1.38% 31,837 52.66% 60,451
Richland 58,019 31.81% 121,110 66.39% 3,282 1.51% -63,091 -38.31% 182,411
Saluda 6,452 71.58% 2,454 27.22% 108 1.20% 3,998 44.36% 9,014
Spartanburg 103,032 66.22% 50,710 32.59% 1,855 1.19% 52,232 33.63% 155,597
Sumter 21,215 46.97% 23,425 51.86% 530 1.17% -2,210 -4.89% 45,170
Union 8,102 65.93% 4,084 33.23% 103 0.84% 4,018 32.70% 12,289
Williamsburg 5,524 38.55% 8,634 60.25% 172 1.20% -3,110 -21.70% 14,330
York 88,239 58.80% 59,600 39.72% 2,220 1.48% 28,639 19.08% 150,059
Totals 1,483,747 58.23% 1,028,452 40.36% 35,941 1.41% 455,295 17.87% 2,548,140

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

Jasper (largest municipality: Hardeeville)

By congressional district

[edit]

Trump won 6 of 7 congressional districts.[43]

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 56% 43% Nancy Mace
2nd 56% 42% Joe Wilson
3rd 71% 28% Jeff Duncan
4th 61% 37% William Timmons
5th 61% 38% Ralph Norman
6th 38% 61% Jim Clyburn
7th 63% 36% Tom Rice

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  1. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC. Retrieved November 19, 2024.
  3. ^ Stracqualursi, Gabby Orr,Kristen Holmes,Veronica (November 16, 2022). "Former President Donald Trump announces a White House bid for 2024 | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved November 19, 2024.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  4. ^ "RFK Ballot South Carolina".
  5. ^ "South Carolina Presidential Election Results". The New York Times. November 5, 2024. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 19, 2024.
  6. ^ Vakil, Caroline (February 4, 2023). "DNC approves adjusted early presidential primary schedule". The Hill. Retrieved March 13, 2023.
  7. ^ Kashinsky, Lisa (October 30, 2023). "Democrats launch write-in campaign for Biden in N.H." Politico. Retrieved October 30, 2023.
  8. ^ Nicholas, Peter (February 3, 2024). "Biden wins South Carolina primary, NBC News projects". NBC News. Retrieved February 5, 2024.
  9. ^ Hubbard, Kaia (February 4, 2024). "South Carolina Democratic primary turnout for 2024 and how it compares to previous years – CBS News". www.cbsnews.com. Retrieved February 7, 2024.
  10. ^ "South Carolina Democratic Primary Results". New York Times. Retrieved February 3, 2024.
  11. ^ "Here's what voter turnout looked like for South Carolina's primary elections". South Carolina Public Radio. February 27, 2024. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
  12. ^ "Rhode Island Presidential Primary". The AP. April 16, 2024. Retrieved April 18, 2024.
  13. ^ "10 Republicans will be on SC's presidential primary — but not Asa Hutchinson". The Post and Courier. Retrieved December 6, 2023.
  14. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  15. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  16. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  17. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  18. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  19. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  20. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  21. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 24, 2024.
  22. ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  23. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  24. ^ Allis, Victor (October 30, 2024). "Trump has large lead in South Carolina". ActiVote.
  25. ^ Allis, Victor (October 18, 2024). "Trump has large lead in South Carolina". ActiVote. Retrieved October 18, 2024.
  26. ^ "September 2024 Winthrop Poll". Winthrop University. Retrieved October 2, 2024.
  27. ^ "The Citadel Poll" (PDF). The Citadel. October 31, 2024.
  28. ^ Francia, Peter; Morris, Jonathan (October 27, 2024). "Trump Leads Harris by Thirteen Points in South Carolina". ECU Center for Survey Research.
  29. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  30. ^ Mumford, Camille (February 20, 2024). "South Carolina 2024 Poll: Trump with 23-Point Lead Over Haley Ahead of GOP Primary". Emerson Polling.
  31. ^ a b c d "Trump Leads Haley in South Carolina, but both candidates are finding advantages in the state". The Citadel. February 16, 2024. Archived from the original on March 1, 2024.
  32. ^ a b "February 2024 Winthrop Poll Results". Winthrop University. February 14, 2024.
  33. ^ "Mainstreet Research Survey – South Carolina" (PDF). FAU Polling. February 13, 2024.
  34. ^ a b Chavez, Krista (September 13, 2022). "New National Poll: 89% of Americans Say Congress Should Focus on Addressing Inflation, Not Breaking Up Tech". NetChoice.
  35. ^ "McMaster Leads by 11 in SC Gov. Race But Poll Shows Plenty of Upside for Cunningham". Blueprint Polling. August 30, 2022. Archived from the original on August 31, 2022.
  36. ^ "Biden drops out of 2024 race after disastrous debate inflamed age concerns. VP Harris gets his nod". AP News. July 21, 2024. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
  37. ^ Alvarez, Jeremy Herb, MJ Lee, Jeff Zeleny, Phil Mattingly, Arlette Saenz, Priscilla (July 21, 2024). "Inside Biden's unprecedented exit from the presidential race | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved September 25, 2024.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  38. ^ "RFK Jr. suspends his presidential bid and backs Donald Trump before appearing with him at his rally". AP News. August 23, 2024. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
  39. ^ "Robert F Kennedy Jr suspends campaign and backs Trump". www.bbc.com. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
  40. ^ Kenmore, Abraham (August 27, 2024). "Alliance Party removes Robert F. Kennedy Jr. from SC's ballot". SC Daily Gazette. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
  41. ^ Kenmore, Abraham (September 3, 2024). "SC finalizing list of presidential candidates on November ballot, sample ballots available soon". SC Daily Gazette. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
  42. ^ "Candidate Listing". MySCVotes. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
  43. ^ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZHx5E0-5vuXxcZShBgsAl_vwAntkkanGqYQp0owNjoQ/edit?gid=0#gid=0
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