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2024 United States presidential election in Oklahoma

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2024 United States presidential election in Oklahoma

← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Reporting
100%
as of 4:00 AM CDT
 
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Electoral vote 7 0
Popular vote 1,036,213 499,599
Percentage 66.16% 31.90%


President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in Oklahoma took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Oklahoma voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Oklahoma has seven electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]

A deeply red state entirely in the Bible Belt, Oklahoma has the longest Republican presidential voting streak of any Southern state, having not backed a Democratic presidential candidate since it was won by Lyndon B. Johnson of neighboring Texas in 1964. Since then, the state has only been contested by single digits in the nationwide victories of former Southern governors Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton (the latter from neighboring Arkansas) in 1976, 1992, and 1996. In addition, Republican presidential candidates have consistently won every county in the state starting with Texan George W. Bush in 2004 — although Oklahoma County, home to the largest city and state capital Oklahoma City, was closely decided in 2020.

Republican Donald Trump easily kept the state in the GOP column in the past two election cycles, with a 36.4% margin of victory in 2016 and 33.1% four years later. Oklahoma was expected to go for Trump a third time in 2024, [2] and Trump ultimately carried the state by 34.26%.

The Oklahoma State Election Board approved Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to officially appear on the ballot in the state on May 9.[3]

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]

The Oklahoma Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Oklahoma Democratic primary, March 5, 2024[4]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 66,882 72.98% 36 36
Marianne Williamson 8,356 9.12% 0 0
Dean Phillips 8,182 8.93% 0 0
Stephen Lyons 4,441 4.85% 0 0
Cenk Uygur 1,974 2.15% 0 0
Armando Perez-Serrato 1,809 1.97% 0 0
Total: 91,644 100.00% 40 4 40

Republican primary

[edit]

The Oklahoma Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Oklahoma Republican primary, March 5, 2024[5][6]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 254,928 81.83% 43 43
Nikki Haley 49,406 15.86%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 3,946 1.27%
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 1,095 0.35%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 1,022 0.33%
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) 431 0.14%
David Stuckenberg 397 0.13%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) 303 0.10%
Total: 311,528 100.00% 43 43


Libertarian primary

[edit]
2024 Libertarian primary results

The Oklahoma Libertarian primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Jacob Hornberger and Chase Oliver were qualified by petition for placement on the ballot. This is the first presidential preference primary for any alternative party in the state.[7]

Oliver and Hornberger participated in a forum at Rose State College in Midwest City, Oklahoma, on February 7, 2024.[8][9]

Candidate Votes Percentage
Chase Oliver 569 61.25%
Jacob Hornberger 360 38.75%
Total: 929 100%
Source:[10]

General election

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in Oklahoma:[11]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[12] Solid R December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[13] Solid R April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] Safe R June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[15] Safe R December 14, 2023
CNalysis[16] Solid R December 30, 2023
CNN[17] Solid R January 14, 2024
The Economist[18] Safe R June 12, 2024
538[19] Solid R June 11, 2024
RCP[20] Solid R June 26, 2024
NBC News[21] Safe R October 6, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
ActiVote[22] October 3–29, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 67% 33%
ActiVote[23] September 13 – October 19, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 66% 34%
SoonerPoll[24] August 24–31, 2024 323 (LV) ± 5.5% 56% 40% 4%
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[25][A] April 13–21, 2024 391 (LV) 53% 40% 7%
Cygnal (R)[26] April 11–12, 2024 615 (LV) ± 3.9% 61% 30% 9%
Emerson College[27] October 1–3, 2023 447 (RV) ± 4.6% 55% 27% 18%
Emerson College[28] October 25–28, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 59% 30% 11%
SoonerPoll[29] October 4–6, 2022 301 (LV) ± 5.7% 53% 41% 6%
Echelon Insights[30][B] August 31 – September 7, 2022 522 (LV) ± 6.3% 63% 30% 7%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Other /
Undecided
Cygnal (R)[26] April 11–12, 2024 615 (LV) ± 3.83% 56% 24% 7% 2% 1% 10%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[25][A] April 13–21, 2024 391 (LV) 46% 43% 11%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[25][A] April 13–21, 2024 391 (LV) 50% 36% 14%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Ron
DeSantis
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
Echelon Insights[30][B] August 31 – September 7, 2022 522 (LV) ± 6.3% 53% 28% 19%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in Oklahoma[31]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican 1,036,213 66.16% Increase 0.79%
Democratic 499,599 31.90% Decrease 0.39%
Independent
16,020 1.02% N/A
Libertarian 9,198 0.59% Decrease 0.99%
Independent
  • Chris Garrity
  • Cody Ballard
5,143 0.33% N/A
Total votes 1,566,173

By congressional district

[edit]

Trump won all 5 congressional districts.[32]

District Trump Harris Representative
1st 60% 38% Kevin Hern
2nd 77% 21% Josh Brecheen
3rd 72% 27% Frank Lucas
4th 66% 33% Tom Cole
5th 58% 40% Stephanie Bice

See also

[edit]

Notes

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  1. ^ a b c d e f Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  2. ^ a b Poll sponsored by NetChoice

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 20, 2024.
  3. ^ Savage, Tres; McNutt, Michael; Brinkman, Bennett; Loveless, Tristan; Patterson, Matt (May 12, 2024). "Roundup: Judge indicted, Russ and Drummond spar, Epic and St. Isidore cases continue". NonDoc. Retrieved May 17, 2024.
  4. ^ "Official Results". Oklahoma State Election Board. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  5. ^ "Oklahoma Republican Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
  6. ^ "Unofficial Results". results.okelections.us. Oklahoma State Election Board. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
  7. ^ "Who is on the presidential primary ballot in Oklahoma?". USA Today.
  8. ^ Denwalt, Dale (February 23, 2024). "Presidential candidates skip Oklahoma ahead of Super Tuesday". The Oklahoman. Retrieved March 8, 2024. The two Libertarian Party candidates on Oklahoma's ballot, Chase Oliver and Jacob Hornberger, spoke at Rose State College this month.
  9. ^ "2024 Libertarian OK Presidential Forum". Oklahoma Libertarian Party. February 15, 2024 – via YouTube.
  10. ^ "Unofficial Results". results.okelections.us. Oklahoma State Election Board. Retrieved March 6, 2024.
  11. ^ "The Green Papers: 2024 Presidential Candidate Ballot Access by State". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved September 13, 2024.
  12. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  13. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  14. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  15. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  16. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  17. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  18. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  19. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
  20. ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  21. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  22. ^ Allis, Victor (October 30, 2024). "Trump Has Large Lead in Oklahoma". ActiVote.
  23. ^ Allis, Victor (October 20, 2024). "Trump Has Large Lead in Oklahoma". ActiVote. Retrieved October 20, 2024.
  24. ^ Grady, Madison (September 4, 2024). "Trump leads Harris by 16 points; between 12 and 73 percent of Harris voters disapprove of her views". SoonerPoll. Retrieved September 7, 2024.
  25. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  26. ^ a b Shucard, Ryan (May 1, 2024). "Statewide Poll: Oklahomans Say Education is a Top Priority, Support Career Pathways, and Oppose Minimum Wage Hikes and Foreign Land Ownership". Cygnal.
  27. ^ Mumford, Camille (October 10, 2023). "Oklahoma Poll: Gov. Stitt and Biden with Low Approval Ratings". Emerson Polling.
  28. ^ Mumford, Camille (October 31, 2022). "Oklahoma 2022: Governor Stitt Leads Hofmeister by Nine; Economy is Determining Issue for Voters". Emerson Polling.
  29. ^ Shapard, Bill (October 19, 2022). "Oklahoma Is Still Trump Country, Leads Biden by 12 Points". SoonerPoll.
  30. ^ a b Chavez, Krista (September 13, 2022). "New National Poll: 89% of Americans Say Congress Should Focus on Addressing Inflation, Not Breaking Up Tech". NetChoice.
  31. ^ "November 5, 2024 Unofficial Results". results.okelections.us. Oklahoma State Election Board. Retrieved November 6, 2024.
  32. ^ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZHx5E0-5vuXxcZShBgsAl_vwAntkkanGqYQp0owNjoQ/edit?gid=0#gid=0