2024 United States Senate election in Vermont

2024 United States Senate election in Vermont
Reporting	99%as of Nov. 7, 5:16 PM EST
	; Sanders: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90%; Malloy: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70%; No Data/Vote:
U.S. senator before election; Bernie Sanders; Independent	Elected U.S. Senator ; Bernie Sanders; Independent

The 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Vermont. Primary elections took place on August 13, 2024.^[1] Incumbent three-term Senator Bernie Sanders, an Independent who caucuses with the Democratic Party, was re-elected with 67% of the vote in 2018.

Sanders filed paperwork to run for re-election in 2019. On January 8, 2024, he stated he would decide whether or not to seek re-election in the "near future."^[2] On May 6, Sanders formally announced that he will run for re-election.^[3] He faced Republican businessman and 2022 Senate nominee Gerald Malloy.

While Sanders easily won re-election, this was the worst performance of his four Senate campaigns, and his 63.3% vote share was the lowest since his 1998 re-election to the U.S. House. In addition, this was the first election of Sanders' career in which his Republican opponent received more than 100,000 votes, the first since his 1994 re-election to the U.S. House he did not carry every county, and the first of his congressional career where he underperformed the Democratic presidential nominee, as Kamala Harris received 64.3% of the vote in the concurrent presidential election.

No Democrat has ever won this Class 1 Senate seat, though Sanders has caucused with Democrats since taking office in 2007.

Independents

Candidates

Declared

Steve Berry, former Democratic state representative (2015–2017)^[4]
Bernie Sanders, incumbent U.S. senator (2007–present)^[5]

Endorsements

Bernie Sanders

Organizations

Labor unions

Political parties

Vermont Progressive Party^[11]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Gerald Malloy, businessman and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2022^[12]

Results

Republican primary results
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Gerald Malloy	20,383	96.4%
	Write-in		772	3.6%
Total votes			21,155	100.0%

Third-party candidates

Declared

Mark Greenstein (Epic), businessman and perennial candidate^[4]
Matt Hill (Libertarian), accountant^[4]
Justin Schoville (Green Mountain Peace and Justice), chair of the Green Mountain Peace and Justice Party^[4]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[13]	Solid I	November 9, 2023
Inside Elections^[14]	Solid I	November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[15]	Safe I	November 9, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill^[16]	Safe I	June 14, 2024
Elections Daily^[17]	Safe I	May 4, 2023
CNalysis^[18]	Solid I	November 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics^[19]	Solid I	August 5, 2024
Split Ticket^[20]	Safe I	October 23, 2024
538^[21]	Safe I	October 23, 2024

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Bernie Sanders (I)	$33,701,563	$31,717,985	$10,289,572
Gerald Malloy (R)	$150,048	$60,752	$90,156
Source: Federal Election Commission^[22]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Bernie Sanders (I)	Gerald Malloy (R)	Other	Undecided
University of New Hampshire	October 29 – November 2, 2024	1,167 (LV)	± 2.9%	64%	27%	2%^[b]	6%
University of New Hampshire	August 15–19, 2024	924 (LV)	± 3.2%	66%	25%	5%^[c]	4%

Results

2024 United States Senate election in Vermont^[23]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Independent	Bernie Sanders (incumbent)	229,899	63.3%	−4.1%
	Republican	Gerald Malloy	116,522	32.1%	+4.6%
	Independent	Steve Berry	7,941	2.2%	N/A
	Libertarian	Matt Hill	4,529	1.2%	N/A
	Green Mountain Peace and Justice	Justin Schoville	3,347	0.9%	+0.5%
	Epic	Mark Stewart Greenstein	1,104	0.3%	N/A
	Write-in
Total votes			363,197
	Independent hold

Notes

^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
^ Hill (L) and Berry (I) with 1%
^ Schoville (GMPJP) with 2%; Hill (L) with 1%; Berry (I) with <1%; "Another candidate" with 2%

References

^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
^ Solender, Andrew. "Bernie Sanders to decide on Senate re-election in "near future"". Axios. Retrieved February 19, 2024.
^ Metzger, Bryan. "Bernie Sanders is running for reelection". Business Insider. Retrieved May 6, 2024.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d "General Election Candidates". Vermont Secretary of State. May 13, 2024.
^ Neukam, Stephen; Solender, Andrew (May 6, 2024). "Bernie Sanders will run for re-election". Axios. Retrieved May 6, 2024.
^ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
^ "2024 Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsed Candidates". Planned Parenthood Action Fund. Retrieved November 6, 2023.
^ "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Archived from the original on August 25, 2023. Retrieved March 18, 2024.
^ "AFA Endorsed Candidates for 2024 Election". Association of Flight Attendants-CWA. Retrieved April 29, 2024.
^ "Endorsements". UFW. Retrieved February 6, 2024.
^ https://www.progressiveparty.org/2024endorsements
^ Bradley, Pat (December 15, 2023). "2022 Senate candidate announces 2024 Senate bid". WAMC. Retrieved January 9, 2024.
^ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
^ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 14, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
^ "Battle for the Senate 2024". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved August 5, 2024.
^ "2024 Senate Forecast". Split Ticket. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
^ "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
^ "2024 Election United States Senate - Vermont". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
^ "Vermont U.S. Senate Election Results". The New York Times. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 5, 2024.

External links

Official campaign websites

[Key-23] Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[24] Hill (L) and Berry (I) with 1%

[25] Schoville (GMPJP) with 2%; Hill (L) with 1%; Berry (I) with <1%; "Another candidate" with 2%

[1] "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.

[2] Solender, Andrew. "Bernie Sanders to decide on Senate re-election in "near future"". Axios. Retrieved February 19, 2024.

[3] Metzger, Bryan. "Bernie Sanders is running for reelection". Business Insider. Retrieved May 6, 2024.

[VT2024-4] "General Election Candidates". Vermont Secretary of State. May 13, 2024.

[5] Neukam, Stephen; Solender, Andrew (May 6, 2024). "Bernie Sanders will run for re-election". Axios. Retrieved May 6, 2024.

[femmajorityendorse-6] "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved March 25, 2024.

[PPAF-7] "2024 Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsed Candidates". Planned Parenthood Action Fund. Retrieved November 6, 2023.

[pop-8] "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Archived from the original on August 25, 2023. Retrieved March 18, 2024.

[adacwaendorse-9] "AFA Endorsed Candidates for 2024 Election". Association of Flight Attendants-CWA. Retrieved April 29, 2024.

[ufwendorsements-10] "Endorsements". UFW. Retrieved February 6, 2024.

[11] ttps://www.progressiveparty.org/2024endorsements

[12] Bradley, Pat (December 15, 2023). "2022 Senate candidate announces 2024 Senate bid". WAMC. Retrieved January 9, 2024.

[13] "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.

[Inside_Elections-14] "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.

[Sabato's_Crystal_Ball-15] "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.

[16] "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 14, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.

[17] "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.

[18] "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.

[19] "Battle for the Senate 2024". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved August 5, 2024.

[20] "2024 Senate Forecast". Split Ticket. Retrieved October 23, 2024.

[21] "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 23, 2024.

[FEC-22] "2024 Election United States Senate - Vermont". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.

[26] "Vermont U.S. Senate Election Results". The New York Times. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 5, 2024.

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