2024 United States presidential election in North Dakota

2024 United States presidential election in North Dakota
Reporting	99%as of Nov. 8, 2024, 3:51 PM CDT
Trump 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% 90–100%	Harris 60–70%
President before election; Joe Biden; Democratic-NPL	Elected President ; Donald Trump; Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in North Dakota took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. North Dakota voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of North Dakota has three electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.^[1]

A sparsely-populated Great Plains state with a predominantly White populace and electorate, North Dakota has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon B. Johnson won it in his nationwide 1964 landslide. Furthermore, it has only been decided by single digits in three presidential elections since 1964: 1976, 1996, and 2008. Agribusiness and the recent oil boom have played a key role in cementing the GOP's overwhelming popularity in the state. North Dakota is considered a deeply red state, and Republican nominee and former president Donald Trump won it by over 30 percentage points in both 2016 and 2020. In terms of popular vote percentage, North Dakota was Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver's strongest state, with 1.7 percent.^[2]

This was the largest Republican presidential victory in the state since 1980.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

The North Dakota Democratic primary was held mostly through mail in ballots. Limited in person voting was held, and all ballots were due March 30, 2024.

North Dakota Democratic primary, February 20 – March 30, 2024 ^[3]
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	840	92.4%	13		13
Marianne Williamson	31	3.4%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)	16	1.8%
Cenk Uygur (withdrawn)	13	1.4%
Eban Cambridge	4	0.4%
Stephen Lyons (withdrawn)	3	0.3%
Jason Palmer	2	0.2%
Armando Perez-Serrato	0	0%
Total:	909	100.0%	13	4	17

Republican caucuses

The North Dakota Republican caucuses were held on March 4, 2024, one day before Super Tuesday, where 15 states and 865 total delegates were up for election.

North Dakota Republican caucus, March 4, 2024^[4]
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	1,632	84.43%	29	0	29
Nikki Haley	273	14.12%	0	0	0
David Stuckenberg	19	0.98%	0	0	0
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)	9	0.47%	0	0	0
Total:	1,933	100.00%	29	0	29

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report^[5]	Solid R	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections^[6]	Solid R	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[7]	Safe R	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill^[8]	Safe R	December 14, 2023
CNalysis^[9]	Solid R	December 30, 2023
CNN^[10]	Solid R	January 14, 2024
The Economist^[11]	Safe R	June 12, 2024
538^[12]	Solid R	June 11, 2024
RCP^[13]	Solid R	June 26, 2024
NBC News^[14]	Safe R	October 6, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic–NPL	Other / Undecided
Lake Research Partners (D)^[15]^[A]	September 23–26, 2024	500 (LV)	–	50%	40%	10%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic–NPL	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R)^[16]^[B]	September 28–30, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	59%	32%	1%	8%

Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic–NPL	Other / Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R)^[17]^[C]	June 15–19, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	62%	28%	10%
John Zogby Strategies^[18]^[D]	April 13–21, 2024	300 (LV)	–	55%	37%	8%
Emerson College^[19]	October 1–4, 2023	419 (RV)	± 4.8%	54%	17%	28%

Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies^[18]^[D]	April 13–21, 2024	300 (LV)	–	51%	36%	13%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent	Joe Biden Democratic–NPL	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies^[18]^[D]	April 13–21, 2024	300 (LV)	–	58%	30%	12%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in North Dakota^[20]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Donald Trump JD Vance	246,019	67.5%	2.4%
	Democratic–NPL	Kamala Harris Tim Walz	112,019	30.8%	1.0%
	Libertarian	Chase Oliver Mike ter Maat	6,232	1.7%	0.9%
	Write-in
Total votes			364,270	100.00%

Notes

^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

Partisan clients

^ Poll sponsored by the campaign of Katrina Christiansen, the Democratic nominee for North Dakota's Class 1 Senate seat
^ Poll sponsored by North Dakota News Cooperative
^ Poll sponsored by Brighter Future Alliance
^ ^a ^b ^c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

References

^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 6, 2023.
^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
^ "North Dakota Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved March 29, 2024.
^ Yoon, Robert (February 29, 2024). "AP Decision Notes: What to expect in North Dakota's GOP caucuses". The AP. Retrieved March 3, 2024.
^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
^ "Katrina Christiansen for Senate - November 2024 General Election" (PDF). FiveThirtyEight. October 1, 2024.
^ Standaert, Michael (October 2, 2024). "Poll: Republicans look set for sweep of top races". North Dakota News Cooperative.
^ Bolger, Glen; Nassar, George (June 26, 2024). "KEY FINDINGS – NORTH DAKOTA STATEWIDE SURVEY" (PDF). Public Opinion Strategies.
^ ^a ^b ^c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
^ Mumford, Camille (October 15, 2023). "North Dakota 2024 Poll: Senator Cramer with Comfortable Lead Over Democratic Challenger". Emerson Polling.
^ "2024 General Election Contest/Candidate List". Vote.nd.gov. Retrieved September 23, 2024.

[key-15] Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[Christiansen-17] Poll sponsored by the campaign of Katrina Christiansen, the Democratic nominee for North Dakota's Class 1 Senate seat

[NDNC-19] Poll sponsored by North Dakota News Cooperative

[BFA-21] Poll sponsored by Brighter Future Alliance

[Kennedy-23] Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

[1] Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 6, 2023.

[2] "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 15, 2024.

[3] "North Dakota Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved March 29, 2024.

[4] Yoon, Robert (February 29, 2024). "AP Decision Notes: What to expect in North Dakota's GOP caucuses". The AP. Retrieved March 3, 2024.

[5] "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[6] "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[7] "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[8] "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[9] "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[10] "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.

[11] "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.

[12] Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.

[13] "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.

[14] "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.

[16] "Katrina Christiansen for Senate - November 2024 General Election" (PDF). FiveThirtyEight. October 1, 2024.

[18] Standaert, Michael (October 2, 2024). "Poll: Republicans look set for sweep of top races". North Dakota News Cooperative.

[20] Bolger, Glen; Nassar, George (June 26, 2024). "KEY FINDINGS – NORTH DAKOTA STATEWIDE SURVEY" (PDF). Public Opinion Strategies.

[Kennedy24-22] "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.

[24] Mumford, Camille (October 15, 2023). "North Dakota 2024 Poll: Senator Cramer with Comfortable Lead Over Democratic Challenger". Emerson Polling.

[j354-25] "2024 General Election Contest/Candidate List". Vote.nd.gov. Retrieved September 23, 2024.

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See also: Political party strength in North Dakota