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2024 United States presidential election in Colorado

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Main article: 2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in Colorado
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Reporting
98%
as of Nov. 18, 2024 MST
 
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state California Florida
Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance
Projected electoral vote 10 0
Popular vote 1,727,576 1,377,040
Percentage 54.2% 43.2%
County results
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

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The 2024 United States presidential election in Colorado took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Colorado voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Colorado has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.[1]

A fast-growing Mountain West state that was formerly Republican leaning, no Republican has won Colorado by double digits at the presidential level since Ronald Reagan in his 1984 landslide re-election victory. Colorado was consistently competitive at the presidential level from the late 1980s going through the 2010s, including Hillary Clinton narrowly winning the state by 4.9% in 2016. In 2020, Democrat Joe Biden carried the state by 13.5%, becoming the first presidential candidate to win Colorado by a double-digit margin since Reagan. The last Republican to win the Centennial State's electoral votes was George W. Bush in his 2004 re-election victory, which he won by a margin of 4.7%. Since then, the state has shifted to the left and broke substantially for Joe Biden in 2020. Today, Colorado is a blue state,[2] with Democrats winning the state in every presidential election starting in 2008, occupying every statewide office since 2023, and holding comfortable majorities in its state legislature.

Notably, Colorado did not see a significant shift rightward compared to other blue states.[3] Harris is currently leading by 11%, only 2.5% down from Biden in 2020, significantly better than Hillary Clinton's margin of 4.9% in 2016, and exceeding Barack Obama's margins in both 2008 and 2012. Trump flipped Pueblo County, which he had won in 2016 but lost in 2020. Nonetheless, he became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Chaffee or Garfield Counties since William Howard Taft in 1908. This is the first time since 2000 that Colorado voted for the popular vote loser, and the first time since 1908 that it voted for a Democrat that lost the popular vote.

Indicative of its trend to the left, Colorado has voted further left in this election than states like New Jersey and Illinois that were previously considered much more blue than Colorado, and only 0.4% to the right of New York state. This is the first time since 1964 when Colorado voted to the left of Illinois.

Primary elections

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Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article: 2024 Colorado Democratic presidential primary

The Colorado Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Colorado Democratic primary, March 5, 2024[4]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 477,365 82.5% 72 72
Noncommitted Delegate 52,122 9.0%
Dean Phillips 17,936 3.1%
Marianne Williamson 16,761 2.9%
Gabriel Cornejo 4,313 0.7%
Jason Palmer 3,986 0.7%
Armando Perez-Serrato 2,591 0.5%
Frankie Lozada 2,402 0.4%
Stephen Lyons 1,481 0.3%
Total: 578,957 100% 72 72

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article: 2024 Colorado Republican presidential primary

The Colorado Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Colorado Republican primary, March 5, 2024[5][6]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 555,863 63.46% 24
Nikki Haley 291,615 33.29% 12
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 12,672 1.45%
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 7,188 0.82%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 5,113 0.58%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) 2,220 0.25%
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) 1,269 0.14%
Total: 875,940 100.00% 36 1 37


14th Amendment lawsuit

[edit]
Main article: Trump v. Anderson
See also: 2024 presidential eligibility of Donald Trump

The Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, a left-leaning non-profit, filed a lawsuit on behalf of four Republicans and independent voters, saying that Donald Trump is ineligible to run for president because of a section in the 14th Amendment that states "no person shall ... hold any office, civil or military, under the United States ... who, having previously taken an oath .... as an officer of the United States ... shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof". A trial on this case took place during October and November 2023.[7][8] The judge found that Trump engaged in insurrection but declined to remove Trump from the primary ballot, saying there is "scant direct evidence regarding whether the Presidency is one of the positions subject to disqualification".[9][10] On December 19, 2023, the Colorado Supreme Court ruled that Trump is disqualified from the Presidency under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment and ordered that Trump be removed from the 2024 Colorado Republican presidential primary ballot.[11][12][13]

Trump appealed this ruling to the Supreme Court of the United States, and arguments were heard in February.[14] The Colorado decision was stayed pending appeal, and Trump was included on the certified ballot, which began to be mailed to overseas voters on January 20.[15] On March 4, 2024, the Supreme Court issued a ruling unanimously reversing the Colorado Supreme Court decision, ruling that states had no authority to remove Trump from their ballots, and this was instead a power held by Congress.[16]

General election

[edit]

Candidates

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The deadline for minor party candidates to qualify for the ballot was July 1, 2024, while independents could petition for ballot access until July 11.[17][18] In September, Colorado secretary of state Jena Griswold published the following candidates as certified to appear on the general election ballot:[19]

Additionally, the state published a list of certified write-in candidates, the deadline for which was on July 18:[20]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[21] Solid D December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[22] Solid D April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] Safe D June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[24] Likely D November 1, 2024
CNalysis[25] Solid D December 30, 2023
CNN[26] Lean D August 25, 2024
The Economist[27] Safe D October 21, 2024
538[28] Solid D October 30, 2024
NBC News[29] Safe D October 6, 2024
YouGov[30] Safe D October 16, 2024
Split Ticket[31] Likely D November 1, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Keating Research[32] October 28−30, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 53% 41% 7%[b]
YouGov[33] October 18−30, 2024 754 (LV) ± 4.54% 55% 41% 4%
ActiVote[34] October 1−30, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 57% 43% –
ActiVote[35] September 15 − October 19, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 59% 41% –
Morning Consult[36] September 9−18, 2024 512 (LV) ± 4.0% 53% 42% 5%
Keating Research[37] September 11–14, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 53% 42% 5%
Morning Consult[36] August 30 – September 8, 2024 498 (LV) ± 4.0% 55% 40% 5%
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
Global Strategy Group (D)[38][A] June 17–24, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 50% 40% 10%
John Zogby Strategies[39][B] April 13–21, 2024 529 (LV) – 49% 43% 8%
New Bridge Strategy (R)/Aspect Strategic (D)[40][C] March 15–19, 2024 632 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 39% 12%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[41] February 29 – March 3, 2024 170 (LV) – 48% 44% 8%
179 (RV) 48% 43% 9%
Emerson College[42] January 23–28, 2024 1,856 (RV) ± 2.2% 41% 35% 24%
Global Strategy Group (D)[38][A] January 22–28, 2024 801 (RV) ± 4.2% 49% 41% 10%
YouGov/University of Colorado Boulder[43] December 1–18, 2023 800 (A) ± 4.2% 47% 40% 13%
Cygnal (R)/Aspect Strategies (D)[44][C] November 26–27, 2023 652 (LV) ± 3.8% 45% 36% 19%
Emerson College[45] October 1–4, 2023 477 (LV) ± 4.4% 42% 38% 20%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[46] May 7–9, 2023 500 (LV) – 49% 39% 12%
Emerson College[47] October 26–29, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 39% 14%
Emerson College[48] September 18–19, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 36% 18%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[49] July 24–26, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 43% 6%
Blueprint Polling (D)[50] April 6–8, 2022 612 (V) ± 4.0% 43% 43% 14%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
Global Strategy Group (D)[38][A] June 17–24, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 42% 36% 12% 2% 3% 5%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
YouGov/University of Colorado Boulder[43] December 1–18, 2023 800 (A) ± 4.2% 46% 33% 21%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[46] May 7–9, 2023 500 (LV) – 44% 41% 15%

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[39][B] April 13–21, 2024 529 (LV) – 42% 48% 10%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[39][B] April 13–21, 2024 529 (LV) – 47% 35% 18%

Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Generic
Democrat 		Generic
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Blueprint Polling (D)[50] April 6–8, 2022 612 (V) ± 4.0% 43% 42% 16%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in Colorado[51]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic
1,587,635 54.4% Decrease 1.0%
Republican
1,254,376 43.0% Increase 1.1%
Independent
31,571 1.1% N/A
Libertarian
19,086 0.7% Decrease 0.91%
Green
14,302 0.5% Increase 0.25%
Unity
4,306 0.1% Increase 0.02%
American Constitution
3,237 0.1% Decrease 0.05%
Approval Voting
  • Blake Huber
  • Andrea Denault
 1,986 0.1% Increase 0.09%
Write-in
Total votes 2,916,499 100.00%

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ a b c d e f g Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  1. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by ProgressNow Colorado
  2. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  3. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Colorado Polling Institute

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ^ Barabak, Mark Z. (March 21, 2023). "Column: From red bastion to blue bulwark: What political shift in Colorado and West means for U.S." Los Angeles Times. Retrieved June 3, 2024.
  3. ^ Frank, John (November 15, 2024). "Why Colorado favored Democrats in the 2024 election". Axios Denver. Retrieved November 21, 2024.
  4. ^ "Colorado Presidential Primary". Associated Press. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
  5. ^ "2024 Primary Presidential Election - Unofficial Results". Colorado Secretary of State Election Results. March 13, 2024. Archived from the original on March 13, 2024. Retrieved March 13, 2024.
  6. ^ "2024 Presidential Delegate Count - Republican". AP News. March 13, 2024. Retrieved March 13, 2024.
  7. ^ See Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution
  8. ^ Durkee, Alison. "Trump Faces First Hearing Over Whether He Can Run For President Today—What To Watch For In 14th Amendment Case". Forbes. Retrieved October 31, 2023.
  9. ^ Cohen, Marshall (November 18, 2023). "Colorado judge keeps Trump on 2024 primary ballot as latest 14th Amendment case falters | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved November 18, 2023.
  10. ^ "Colorado judge rules Trump 'engaged in an insurrection' — but can still run for president". Politico. November 17, 2023. Retrieved November 18, 2023.
  11. ^ Astor, Maggie (December 19, 2023). "Trump Is Disqualified From the 2024 Ballot, Colorado Supreme Court Rules". The New York Times. Retrieved December 19, 2023.
  12. ^ Cohen, Marshall (December 19, 2023). "Colorado Supreme Court removes Trump from 2024 ballot based on 14th Amendment's 'insurrectionist ban'". CNN. Retrieved December 19, 2023.
  13. ^ Grumbach, Gary; Gregorian, Dareh (December 19, 2023). "Colorado Supreme Court kicks Trump off the state's 2024 ballot for violating the U.S. Constitution". NBC News. Retrieved December 19, 2023.
  14. ^ Liptak, Adam (January 18, 2024). "Trump Asks Supreme Court to Rule He Is Eligible to Hold Office". The New York Times.
  15. ^ "Despite US Supreme Court appeal, Trump certified as candidate on Colorado GOP ballot". ABC News. Retrieved January 19, 2024.
  16. ^ "Donald Trump: US Supreme Court rules that states cannot kick him off the presidential ballot". Sky News. Retrieved March 4, 2024.
  17. ^ "Rules Concerning Qualified Political Organizations" (PDF). Secretary of State of Colorado. September 22, 2023. Retrieved September 9, 2024.
  18. ^ "Petition Nomination". Colorado Secretary of State. Retrieved July 11, 2024.
  19. ^ "2024 General Election Official Candidate List". Secretary of State of Colorado. Retrieved September 9, 2024.
  20. ^ "Write-In". Colorado Secretary of State. Retrieved February 13, 2024.
  21. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  22. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  23. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  24. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved October 24, 2024.
  25. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  26. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  27. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved October 21, 2024.
  28. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
  29. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  30. ^ "2024 Presidential Election Polls". YouGov.
  31. ^ "2024 Presidential Forcast". Split Ticket. June 2, 2023.
  32. ^ "Kamala Harris is set to secure double-digit victory in Colorado" (PDF). Keating Research. October 31, 2024. Retrieved November 1, 2024.
  33. ^ "Colorado Political Climate Survey 2024 Report". University of Colorado Boulder American Politics Research Lab. November 4, 2024. Retrieved November 5, 2024.
  34. ^ Allis, Victor (October 20, 2024). "Harris Comfortably Ahead in Colorado". ActiVote. Retrieved October 20, 2024.
  35. ^ Allis, Victor (October 20, 2024). "Harris Leads in Colorado". ActiVote. Retrieved October 20, 2024.
  36. ^ a b Easley, Cameron; Yokley, Eli (September 9, 2024). "Tracking the 2024 Election: State by State". Morning Consult.
  37. ^ Keating, Chris; Martin, Jake; Keating, Spencer (September 25, 2024). "Keating Research Colorado Presidential Election Polling Memo - 09/25/24" (PDF). Keating Research.
  38. ^ a b c "The Rocky Mountaineer June 2024, Issue 15" (PDF). Global Strategy Group. July 8, 2024.
  39. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  40. ^ "COLORADO POLLING INSTITUTE SURVEY Interview Schedule – April 3 Release" (PDF). Squarespace. April 3, 2024.
  41. ^ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Super Tuesday States". FAU Polling. March 4, 2024.
  42. ^ Mumford, Camille (February 2, 2024). "Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, and South Dakota 2024 Polls: Biden Underperforming Among Women and Young Voters". Emerson Polling.
  43. ^ a b "Colorado Political Climate Survey 2023 Report". University of Colorado Boulder. January 29, 2024.
  44. ^ "Survey of Likely 2024 General Election Voters Colorado Statewide" (PDF). Squarespace. November 28, 2023.
  45. ^ Mumford, Camille (October 16, 2023). "Colorado 2024 Poll: Biden Leads Trump by Four Points among Centennial State Voters". Emerson Polling.
  46. ^ a b "DeSantis is tied with Biden in Virginia and within striking distance of the President in three other '24 "reach" states. Trump is poised to lose these four states for a third time". X. May 12, 2023.
  47. ^ Mumford, Camille (November 1, 2022). "Colorado 2022: Senate Race Tightens but Bennet Maintains Lead; Polis Holds 14-Point Lead Over Ganahl". Emerson Polling.
  48. ^ Mumford, Camille (September 22, 2022). "Colorado 2022: Democratic Senator Bennet and Governor Polis Hold Double-Digit Leads in Re-Election Campaigns". Emerson Polling.
  49. ^ "John Jordan Poll - Colorado Statewide" (PDF). McLaughlin & Associates. August 12, 2022.
  50. ^ a b "Biden and Trump in a Virtual Tie in Hypothetical Rematch in COLORADO - Senator Michael Bennet Leads Potental Opponent Gino Campana by 6%" (PDF). Blueprint Polling. April 13, 2022. Archived from the original (PDF) on June 14, 2022.
  51. ^ "2024 General Election Official Candidate List". Colorado Secretary of State. September 9, 2024. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
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