2024 United States Senate election in Tennessee

2024 United States Senate election in Tennessee
	Blackburn: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90%; Johnson: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%
U.S. senator before election; Marsha Blackburn; Republican	Elected U.S. senator ; Marsha Blackburn; Republican

The 2024 United States Senate election in Tennessee was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Tennessee. Incumbent one-term Republican Senator Marsha Blackburn defeated state representative Gloria Johnson with 63.8% of the vote. Blackburn sufficiently improved on her performance from 2018.

The primaries took place on August 1, 2024, with Blackburn and Johnson winning their respective party nominations. This was the first all-woman general election for a Tennessee senate seat.^[1]

Blackburn performed comparably to Donald Trump in the general election overall but notably outperformed him in some key counties. Specifically, she outperformed him in Hamilton, Haywood (a county Trump lost and where she had previously lost), Madison, Shelby, and Washington.

Although Gloria Johnson campaigned for the Senate seat, she simultaneously sought and won re-election to the State House in the 90th district, where she ran unopposed in that race.^[2]

Background

At the federal and state levels, Tennessee is considered to be a strongly red state, having gone to Donald Trump by 23 points in the 2020 presidential election. In Tennessee, Republicans occupy both Senate seats, 8 out of 9 U.S. House seats, supermajorities in both state legislative chambers, and the governor's office.

Due to Tennessee's strong conservative bent, this race was considered a "Safe" Republican hold.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Marsha Blackburn, incumbent U.S. Senator (2019–present)^[3]

Eliminated in primary

Tres Wittum, legislative policy analyst and candidate for Tennessee's 5th congressional district in 2022^[4]

Endorsements

Marsha Blackburn

U.S. Executive Branch officials

Donald Trump, former president of the United States^[5]

Organizations

American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC)^[6]
Maggie's List^[7]
Turning Point Action^[8]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of July 12, 2024
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Marsha Blackburn (R)	$14,501,964	$6,339,437	$8,776,627
Source: Federal Election Commission^[9]

Results

Republican primary results^[10]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Marsha Blackburn (incumbent)	367,799	89.48%
	Republican	Tres Wittum	43,244	10.52%
	Write-in		2	<0.01%
Total votes			411,045	100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Gloria Johnson, state representative from the 90th district (2013–2015, 2019–present) and member of the Tennessee Three^[11]

Eliminated in primary

Marquita Bradshaw, staffing consultant and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020^[12]
Lola Brown, minister^[4]
Civil Miller-Watkins, former Fayette County school board member^[13]

Declined

Joanne Sowell, attorney^[14]

Endorsements

Gloria Johnson

Individuals

Ruby Amanfu, musician^[15]
Kyshona Armstrong, musician^[15]
Sam Ashworth, musician^[15]
Mya Byrne, musician^[15]
Brandi Carlile, musician^[15]
Beth Nielsen Chapman, musician^[15]
Shelly Colvin, musician^[15]
Elizabeth Cook, musician^[15]
Brooke Eden, musician^[15]
Kam Franklin, musician^[15]
Mary Gauthier, musician^[15]
Devon Gilfillian, musician^[15]
Emmylou Harris, musician^[15]
Brittany Howard, musician^[15]
Meghan Linsey, musician^[15]
Paul McDonald, musician^[15]
Erin Rae McKaskle, musician^[15]
Morgxn, musician^[15]
Maren Morris, musician^[15]
Katie Pruitt, musician^[15]
Allison Russell, musician^[15]
Amanda Shires, musician^[15]
Lucie Silvas, musician^[15]
Langhorne Slim, musician^[15]
Brittney Spencer, musician^[15]
Lilly Winwood, musician^[15]

Organizations

Labor unions

National Education Association^[18]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of July 12, 2024
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Marquita Bradshaw (D)	$36,054	$35,691	$364
Gloria Johnson (D)	$5,046,183	$3,009,194	$2,048,985
Source: Federal Election Commission^[9]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Marquita Bradshaw	Gloria Johnson	Civil Miller-Watkins	Other	Undecided
Targoz Market Research^[A]	March 15 – April 2, 2024	282 (LV)	± 2.77%	7%	38%	2%	1%	52%
Targoz Market Research^[A]	December 14–28, 2023	251 (LV)	± 2.66%	11%	41%	2%	1%	45%

Results

Democratic primary results^[19]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Gloria Johnson	143,962	70.20%
	Democratic	Marquita Bradshaw	44,657	21.78%
	Democratic	Lola Brown	10,027	4.89%
	Democratic	Civil Miller-Watkins	6,420	3.13%
Total votes			205,066	100.00%

Independents

Candidates

Declared

Tharon Chandler, farmer and Democratic nominee for Tennessee's 7th congressional district in 2016^[4]
Pamela Moses, community activist and convicted felon^[4]
Hastina Robinson, firefighter^[4]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[20]	Solid R	November 9, 2023
Inside Elections^[21]	Solid R	November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[22]	Safe R	November 9, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill^[23]	Safe R	June 8, 2024
Elections Daily^[24]	Safe R	May 4, 2023
CNalysis^[25]	Safe R	November 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics^[26]	Solid R	August 5, 2024
Split Ticket^[27]	Safe R	October 23, 2024
538^[28]	Solid R	October 23, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

Marsha Blackburn (R)

Individuals

Vivek Ramaswamy, pharmaceutical executive and candidate for president in 2024^[29]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of July 12, 2024
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Marsha Blackburn (R)	$14,501,964	$6,339,437	$8,776,627
Gloria Johnson (D)	$5,069,008	$3,009,194	$2,048,985
Source: Federal Election Commission^[9]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Marsha Blackburn (R)	Gloria Johnson (D)	Undecided^[b]	Margin
538	through October 28, 2024	October 29, 2024	55.0%	35.7%	9.3%	Blackburn +19.3
RCP	October 1, 2023 - May 9, 2024	September 9, 2024	50.5%	33.0%	16.5%	Blackburn +17.5
TheHill/DDHQ	through October 28, 2024	October 29, 2024	59.4%	36.5%	4.1%	Blackburn +22.9%
Average			55.0%	35.1%	9.9%	Blackburn +19.9%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Marsha Blackburn (R)	Gloria Johnson (D)	Undecided
ActiVote	October 7–28, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	61%	39%	–
ActiVote	September 14 – October 18, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	61%	39%	–
Targoz Market Research^[A]	September 27 – October 8, 2024	1,159 (RV)	± 2.77%	52%	29%	18%^[c]
971 (LV)	± 2.77%	54%	31%	15%^[d]
ActiVote	July 25 – September 2, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	60%	40%	–
Targoz Market Research^[A]	June 20 – July 1, 2024	1,124 (RV)	± 2.77%	49%	32%	19%
944 (LV)	± 2.77%	52%	32%	16%
SSRS/Vanderbilt University	April 26 – May 9, 2024	1,003 (RV)	± 3.4%	51%	40%	9%
Targoz Market Research^[A]	March 15 – April 2, 2024	955 (LV)	± 2.77%	45%	29%	26%
Targoz Market Research^[A]	October 5–16, 2023	850 (LV)	± 2.79%	49%	29%	23%

Hypothetical polling

Marsha Blackburn vs. Marquita Bradshaw

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Marsha Blackburn (R)	Marquita Bradshaw (D)	Undecided
Targoz Market Research^[A]	June 20 – July 1, 2024	1,124 (RV)	± 2.77%	51%	33%	17%
942 (LV)	± 2.77%	54%	33%	14%
Targoz Market Research^[A]	March 15 – April 2, 2024	947 (LV)	± 2.77%	46%	22%	32%
Targoz Market Research^[A]	October 5–16, 2023	824 (LV)	± 2.79%	48%	36%	17%

Results

2024 United States Senate election in Tennessee
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Marsha Blackburn (incumbent)	1,919,606	63.81%	+9.10%
	Democratic	Gloria Johnson	1,027,025	34.14%	−9.78%
	Independent	Tharon Chandler	28,558	0.95%	N/A
	Independent	Pamela Moses	24,633	0.82%	N/A
	Independent	Hastina Robinson	8,270	0.27%	N/A
Total votes			3,008,092	100.00%

Notes

^ ^a ^b ^c Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
^ Moses (I) with 4%; Chandler (I) with 2%
^ Moses (I) with 5%; Chandler (I) with 2%

Partisan clients

^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ Poll sponsored by the Beacon Center of Tennessee

References

^ "Results for Women in the August 1st Primaries in Tennessee". cawp.rutgers.edu.
^ WBIR Channel 10 (February 7, 2024). Rep. Gloria Johnson running for reelection in the TN House while also running for US Senate. Retrieved August 27, 2024 – via YouTube.{{cite AV media}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
^ "Tennessee US Senate Poll". October 17, 2023.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e "Candidate Lists | Tennessee Secretary of State". sos.tn.gov. Retrieved April 4, 2024.
^ "Trump Endorses Marsha Blackburn for Re-Election: "A Friend and a WINNER" - Sen. Marsha Blackburn Campaign Press Release | LegiStorm". www.legistorm.com. Retrieved August 2, 2024.
^ "Support Pro-Israel Candidates". AIPAC PAC. Retrieved April 7, 2023.
^ "Press Releases | Maggie's List". maggieslist.org. Retrieved June 25, 2023.
^ "Endorsements". Turning Point Action. Retrieved December 14, 2023.
^ ^a ^b ^c "2024 Election United States Senate - Tennessee". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 5, 2024.
^ "August 1, 2024 Republican Primary United States Senate" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved September 14, 2024.
^ Kamisar, Ben (September 5, 2023). "Tennessee Democrat reprimanded for gun violence protest is running for Senate". NBC News. Retrieved September 5, 2023.
^ Elliott, Stephen (July 20, 2023). "Former Nominee Marquita Bradshaw Running for Senate Again". Nashville Scene. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
^ McCall, Holly (October 26, 2023). "Fayette County educator Civil Miller-Watkins enters Democratic primary for 2024 Tenn. U.S. Senate". Tennessee Lookout. Retrieved January 6, 2024.
^ Elliott, Stephen (July 14, 2023). "Nashville attorney ends U.S. Senate campaign effort". Nashville Post. Retrieved July 16, 2023.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ ^j ^k ^l ^m ⁿ ^o ^p ^q ^r ^s ^t ^u ^v ^w ^x ^y ^z Bloom, Madison (March 13, 2024). "Brittany Howard, Allison Russell, Maren Morris, and More Support U.S. Senate Candidate Gloria Johnson With New Song: Listen". Pitchfork. Retrieved March 13, 2024.
^ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
^ "2024 Federal Endorsements". NOW PAC. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
^ "Our Recommended Candidates". Education Votes. Retrieved February 14, 2024.
^ "August 1, 2024 Democratic Primary United States Senate" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved September 14, 2024.
^ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
^ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
^ "Battle for the Senate 2024". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved August 5, 2024.
^ "2024 Senate Forecast". Split Ticket. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
^ "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
^ "Vivek Ramaswamy Stumps for Senator Blackburn in Knoxville". Marsha Blackburn for U.S. Senate. Retrieved August 27, 2024.

External links

Official campaign websites

[Key-19] Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[32] Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

[33] Moses (I) with 4%; Chandler (I) with 2%

[34] Moses (I) with 5%; Chandler (I) with 2%

[BCT-20] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ Poll sponsored by the Beacon Center of Tennessee

[1] "Results for Women in the August 1st Primaries in Tennessee". cawp.rutgers.edu.

[2] WBIR Channel 10 (February 7, 2024). Rep. Gloria Johnson running for reelection in the TN House while also running for US Senate. Retrieved August 27, 2024 – via YouTube.{{cite AV media}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)

[3] "Tennessee US Senate Poll". October 17, 2023.

[TN2024-4] "Candidate Lists | Tennessee Secretary of State". sos.tn.gov. Retrieved April 4, 2024.

[5] "Trump Endorses Marsha Blackburn for Re-Election: "A Friend and a WINNER" - Sen. Marsha Blackburn Campaign Press Release | LegiStorm". www.legistorm.com. Retrieved August 2, 2024.

[aipac-6] "Support Pro-Israel Candidates". AIPAC PAC. Retrieved April 7, 2023.

[7] "Press Releases | Maggie's List". maggieslist.org. Retrieved June 25, 2023.

[TPUSAENDORSE-8] "Endorsements". Turning Point Action. Retrieved December 14, 2023.

[FEC-9] "2024 Election United States Senate - Tennessee". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 5, 2024.

[auto-10] "August 1, 2024 Republican Primary United States Senate" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved September 14, 2024.

[11] Kamisar, Ben (September 5, 2023). "Tennessee Democrat reprimanded for gun violence protest is running for Senate". NBC News. Retrieved September 5, 2023.

[12] Elliott, Stephen (July 20, 2023). "Former Nominee Marquita Bradshaw Running for Senate Again". Nashville Scene. Retrieved July 24, 2023.

[13] McCall, Holly (October 26, 2023). "Fayette County educator Civil Miller-Watkins enters Democratic primary for 2024 Tenn. U.S. Senate". Tennessee Lookout. Retrieved January 6, 2024.

[14] Elliott, Stephen (July 14, 2023). "Nashville attorney ends U.S. Senate campaign effort". Nashville Post. Retrieved July 16, 2023.

[song-15] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ ^j ^k ^l ^m ⁿ ^o ^p ^q ^r ^s ^t ^u ^v ^w ^x ^y ^z Bloom, Madison (March 13, 2024). "Brittany Howard, Allison Russell, Maren Morris, and More Support U.S. Senate Candidate Gloria Johnson With New Song: Listen". Pitchfork. Retrieved March 13, 2024.

[femmajorityendorse-16] "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.

[nowendorsements-17] "2024 Federal Endorsements". NOW PAC. Retrieved May 16, 2024.

[NEAV-18] "Our Recommended Candidates". Education Votes. Retrieved February 14, 2024.

[21] "August 1, 2024 Democratic Primary United States Senate" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved September 14, 2024.

[22] "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.

[Inside_Elections-23] "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.

[Sabato's_Crystal_Ball-24] "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.

[25] "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.

[26] "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.

[27] "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.

[28] "Battle for the Senate 2024". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved August 5, 2024.

[29] "2024 Senate Forecast". Split Ticket. Retrieved October 23, 2024.

[30] "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 23, 2024.

[31] "Vivek Ramaswamy Stumps for Senator Blackburn in Knoxville". Marsha Blackburn for U.S. Senate. Retrieved August 27, 2024.

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Background

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

Fundraising

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Fundraising

Polling

Results

Independents

Candidates

Declared

General election

Predictions

Post-primary endorsements

Fundraising

Polling

Results

See also

Notes

References

External links