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2024 United States presidential election in Texas

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2024 United States presidential election in Texas

← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Turnout61.11% (of registered voters) Decrease 5.62 pp
 
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Electoral vote 40 0
Popular vote 6,375,376 4,806,474
Percentage 56.26% 42.41%


President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in Texas was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Texas voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Texas had 40 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained two seats.[1]

One of the most populous, fast-growing, and diverse states in the U.S., Texas is generally considered to be a red state, not having voted Democratic in a presidential election since southerner Jimmy Carter won it in 1976 and with Republicans holding all statewide offices since 1999. Texas’s location in the American South and largely in the greater Bible Belt has given the Republican Party the upper hand in the state in recent decades.[2] Nonetheless, Texas was considered by some to be potentially competitive, as the state had not backed a Republican for president by double digits since it favored Mitt Romney in 2012, which was largely credited to the fast-growing Texas Triangle, which trended leftwards in some elections, namely in the closely-contested 2018 U.S. Senate race and the 2020 U.S. presidential election, which both saw the Metroplex county of Tarrant and the Greater Austin counties of Williamson and Hays flip blue for the first time in decades. However, in the 2020 elections, predominantly Hispanic South Texas shifted significantly rightward, a trend that the rest of the state followed in the 2022 midterms.[3][4] Trump ultimately won Texas by a margin of over 1.5 million votes, the second-largest margin of victory for any presidential candidate in Texas history.[5]

Incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden initially ran for re-election and became the party's presumptive nominee.[6] However, following what was widely viewed as a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and amid increasing age and health concerns from within his party, he withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[7] Biden's withdrawal from the race makes him the first eligible president not to stand for re-election since Texan native Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968.

Former Republican President Donald Trump ran for re-election to a second non-consecutive term after his defeat in the 2020 election.[8] Having carried Texas by single-digit margins in the past two presidential elections (by a 9% margin in 2016 and by 5.6% in 2020), Trump once again carried The Lone Star State, but with a decisive victory margin of nearly 14%. Trump significantly outperformed his polling averages in the state and became the first presidential candidate to win Texas by double digits since Mitt Romney in 2012, possibly seeing a reversion of the blue trend that Texas had seen in recent years. According to exit polls, 55% of Latinos in the state voted for Trump.[9] Data also showed that Trump made large inroads with Asians in Texas, who broke 58% Republican.[10] Trump received over six million votes, becoming the first presidential candidate to achieve this feat in Texas and setting a record for the most raw votes received in the state, as well as the largest raw vote total ever received by a Republican presidential candidate in any state in American history. This was also the first time a Republican candidate won the majority of both Asian and Hispanic voters in Texas. Such rightward trends in Latino and Asian voters were replicated nationwide in other states.

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]

The Texas Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Incumbent president Joe Biden won the state in a landslide, with minor opposition from various other candidates, particularly in the Lower Rio Grande Valley region. Biden lost Loving County, in which there was only one ballot cast for Frankie Lozada.

Popular vote share by county
  Biden
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
  Lozada
  •   100%
  No votes
Texas Democratic primary, March 5, 2024[11]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 831,247 84.6% 244 244
Marianne Williamson 43,667 4.5%
Armando Perez-Serrato 27,473 2.8%
Dean Phillips 26,473 2.7%
Gabriel Cornejo 17,196 1.8%
Cenk Uygur 16,100 1.6%
Frankie Lozada 11,311 1.2%
Star Locke 8,602 0.9%
Total: 982,069 100% 272 272

Republican primary

[edit]

The Texas Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald Trump easily won the state and all of its delegates against Nikki Haley, who remained his only major opposition. Trump received the endorsements of U.S. senators John Cornyn and Ted Cruz, as well as Texas governor Greg Abbott, in his primary campaign.

Popular vote share by county
  Trump
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
  Haley
  •   60–70%
Texas Republican primary, March 5, 2024[12]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 1,808,269 77.84% 161 161
Nikki Haley 405,472 17.45%
Uncommitted 45,568 1.96%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 36,302 1.56%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 10,582 0.46%
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 8,938 0.38%
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) 2,964 0.13%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) 2,585 0.11%
David Stuckenberg 2,339 0.10%
Total: 2,323,019 100.00% 161 161


Robert F. Kennedy Jr. independent bid

[edit]

The Texas Secretary of State's office announced on August 8 that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would appear on the state ballot.[13] Kennedy later dropped out of the race nationally on August 23.[14][15]

General election

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in Texas:[16]

In addition, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was on the ballot under the Texas Independent Party before he suspended his campaign.

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[17] Likely R August 27, 2024
Inside Elections[18] Likely R August 29, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] Likely R September 25, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[20] Likely R October 4, 2024
CNN[21] Solid R January 14, 2024
The Economist[22] Likely R June 13, 2024
538[23] Likely R October 5, 2024
CNalysis[24] Lean R November 4, 2024
NBC News[25] Likely R October 6, 2024
YouGov[26] Lean R October 16, 2024
Split Ticket[27] Likely R November 1, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Undecided
[a]
Margin
270ToWin October 18 – November 3, 2024 November 3, 2024 44.4% 51.8% 3.8% Trump +7.4%
538 through November 3, 2024 November 3, 2024 43.8% 51.7% 4.5% Trump +7.9%
Silver Bulletin through November 3, 2024 November 3, 2024 44.3% 51.4% 4.3% Trump +7.1%
The Hill/DDHQ through October 29, 2024 November 3, 2024 44.2% 51.8% 4.0% Trump +7.6%
Average 44.2% 51.7% 4.1% Trump +7.5%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
AtlasIntel[28] November 3–4, 2024 2,434 (LV) ± 2.0% 55% 44% 1%
Morning Consult[29] October 22−31, 2024 2,120 (LV) ± 2.0% 52% 45% 3%
ActiVote[30] October 21−27, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 55% 45%
New York Times/Siena College[31] October 23−26, 2024 1,180 (RV) ± 3.3% 52% 41% 7%
1,180 (LV) 52% 42% 6%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[32][A] October 24–25, 2024 1,002 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 44% 6%[c]
CES/YouGov[33] October 1–25, 2024 6,526 (A) 51% 47% 2%
6,473 (LV) 51% 47% 2%
Emerson College[34] October 18−21, 2024 815 (LV) ± 3.4% 53% 46% 1%[d]
53%[e] 46% 1%[d]
Rose Institute/YouGov[35] October 7–17, 2024 1,108 (RV) ± 3.5% 49% 44% 7%[f]
1,108 (RV) 50%[e] 45% 5%
1,075 (LV) 51% 46% 3%
ActiVote[36] September 26 − October 16, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 56% 44%
Morning Consult[29] October 6−15, 2024 2,048 (LV) ± 2.0% 50% 46% 4%
Marist College[37] October 3–7, 2024 1,365 (RV) ± 3.3% 52% 46% 2%[g]
1,186 (LV) ± 3.6% 53% 46% 1%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[38] October 2–6, 2024 811 (RV) ± 3.4% 50% 45% 5%[h]
775 (LV) 50% 45% 5%[h]
New York Times/Siena College[39] September 29 – October 6, 2024 617 (LV) ± 5.0% 50% 44% 6%
RMG Research[40][B] September 25–27, 2024 779 (LV) ± 3.5% 51% 45% 3%[i]
53%[e] 46% 1%
Public Policy Polling (D)[41][C] September 25–26, 2024 759 (RV) ± 3.5% 51% 46% 3%
Emerson College[42] September 22−24, 2024 950 (LV) ± 3.1% 51% 46% 3%[d]
52%[e] 47% 1%[d]
ActiVote[43] September 7−24, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 54% 46%
Morning Consult[29] September 9−18, 2024 2,716 (LV) ± 2.0% 50% 46% 4%
Morning Consult[29] August 30 – September 8, 2024 2,940 (LV) ± 2.0% 52% 43% 5%
Emerson College[44] September 3–5, 2024 845 (LV) ± 3.3% 50% 46% 4%
51%[e] 48% 1%[j]
YouGov[45][D] August 23–31, 2024 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 49% 44% 7%[k]
ActiVote[46] August 14–31, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 54.5% 45.5%
Quantus Insights (R)[47] August 29–30, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 49% 42% 9%[l]
52% 44% 4%[m]
August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
Public Policy Polling (D)[48][C] August 21–22, 2024 725 (RV) ± 3.6% 49% 44% 6%
August 19–22, 2024 Democratic National Convention
ActiVote[49] July 31 – August 13, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 53% 47%
August 6, 2024 Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate.
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.
July 15–19, 2024 Republican National Convention
July 13, 2024 Attempted assassination of Donald Trump
YouGov[50][E] January 11–24, 2024 1,500 (RV) ± 2.5% 52% 39% 9%
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[51] May 8–17, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 2.9% 46% 39% 15%[n]

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Chase
Oliver
Libertarian
Other /
Undecided
AtlasIntel[28] November 3–4, 2024 2,434 (LV) ± 2.0% 54% 44% 1% 0% 1%
Cygnal (R)[52] October 26−28, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 43% 2% 2% 2%
New York Times/Siena College[31] October 23−26, 2024 1,180 (RV) ± 3.3% 50% 40% 2% 2% 6%
1,180 (LV) 51% 40% 1% 1% 7%
UT Tyler[53] October 14–21, 2024 1,129 (RV) ± 3.0% 51% 45% 1% 2% 1%
956 (LV) 51% 46% 1% 1% 1%
YouGov[54][D] October 2–10, 2024 1,091 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 46% 2% 1%
CWS Research (R)[55][F] October 1–4, 2024 533 (LV) ± 4.2% 48% 43% 2% 1% 6%
University of Houston[56] September 26 – October 10, 2024 1,329 (LV) ± 2.7% 51% 46% 1% 0% 2%
Public Policy Polling (D)[41][C] September 25–26, 2024 759 (RV) ± 3.5% 49% 44% 0% 1% 6%
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[57] September 13–18, 2024 1,200 (LV) ± 2.9% 50% 44% 1% 1% 4%
CWS Research (R)[58][G] September 4–9, 2024 504 (LV) ± 4.4% 51% 41% 0% 2% 6%
Texas Public Opinion Research/Lake Research Partners (D)[59] August 24–29, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 51% 43% 2% 2% 2%
YouGov[45][D] August 23–31, 2024 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 49% 44% 2% 0% 5%


Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Chase
Oliver
Libertarian
Other /
Undecided
New York Times/Siena College[39] September 29 – October 6, 2024 617 (LV) ± 5.0% 49% 42% 0% 0% 2% 2% 5%
Public Policy Polling (D)[60][C] August 21–22, 2024 725 (RV) ± 3.6% 45% 42% 6% 1% 0% 6%
University of Houston[61] August 5–16, 2024 1,365 (LV) ± 2.7% 50% 45% 2% 1% 1% 1%
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
ActiVote[62] June 25 – July 18, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 54% 46%
Remington Research Group (R)[63] June 29 – July 1, 2024 589 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 39% 12%
Manhattan Institute[64] June 25–27, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 52% 41% 7%
UT Tyler[65] June 11–20, 2024 1,144 (RV) ± 3.7% 46% 40% 14%
931 (LV) ± 3.8% 48% 43% 9%
YouGov[66][D] May 31 – June 9, 2024 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 46% 39% 15%[o]
YouGov[67][D] April 12–22, 2024 1,200 (RV) ± 3.3% 48% 40% 12%[p]
John Zogby Strategies[68][H] April 13–21, 2024 743 (LV) 50% 40% 10%
Cygnal (R)[69] April 4–6, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 2.9% 51% 42% 7%
Marist College[70] March 18–21, 2024 1,117 (RV) ± 3.8% 55% 44% 1%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[71] February 29 – March 3, 2024 489 (RV) 50% 42% 8%
458 (LV) 51% 42% 7%
UT Tyler[72] February 18–26, 2024 1,167 (RV) ± 3.2% 46% 42% 12%
YouGov[73][D] February 2–12, 2024 1,200 (RV) ± 3.4% 48% 41% 11%[q]
YouGov[50][E] January 11–24, 2024 1,145 (LV) ± 2.5% 49% 40% 11%
Emerson College[74][I] January 13–15, 2024 1,315 (RV) ± 2.6% 49% 41% 10%
YouGov[75][D] December 1–10, 2023 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 45% 39% 16%
YouGov[76][D] October 5–17, 2023 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 45% 37% 18%
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[51] May 8–17, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 2.9% 44% 42% 14%[r]
CWS Research (R)[77][J] April 17–21, 2023 677 (LV) ± 3.8% 45% 42% 13%
Emerson College[78] October 17–19, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 40% 13%
Emerson College[79] September 20–22, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 40% 11%
Echelon Insights[80] August 31 – September 7, 2022 813 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 43% 9%
Blueprint Polling (D)[81] June 8–10, 2022 603 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 38% 17%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Other /
Undecided
YouGov[82][K] June 20 – July 1, 2024 1,484 (LV) ± 2.5% 49% 40% 5% 2% 4%[s]
Manhattan Institute[64] June 25–27, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 36% 7% 1% 0% 11%[t]
UT Tyler[65] June 11–20, 2024 1,144 (RV) ± 3.7% 46% 38% 12% 1% 3%[u]
931 (LV) ± 3.8% 47% 41% 8% 1% 3%[u]
YouGov[66][D] May 31 – June 9, 2024 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 43% 34% 8% 2% 2% 11%
YouGov[67][D] April 12–22, 2024 1,200 (RV) ± 3.3% 45% 36% 8% 2% 2% 7%
Texas Lyceum[83] April 12–21, 2024 926 (RV) ± 3.2% 41% 31% 11% 1% 1% 15%[v]
Cygnal (R)[69] April 4–6, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 2.9% 46% 37% 8% 1% 2% 6%
UT Tyler[72] February 18–26, 2024 1,167 (RV) ± 3.2% 41% 37% 13% 6% 3%
YouGov[73][D] February 2–12, 2024 1,200 (RV) ± 3.4% 45% 36% 6% 3% 2% 8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[84] February 1–3, 2024 605 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 35% 6% 1% 1% 13%
Emerson College[74][I] January 13–15, 2024 1,315 (RV) ± 2.6% 46% 36% 5% 1% 1% 11%
YouGov[75][D] December 1–10, 2023 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 42% 34% 8% 3% 2% 12%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[85] April 5–10, 2024 1,600 (LV) ± 2.45% 46% 34% 9% 11%[w]
Marist College[70] March 18–21, 2024 1,117 (RV) ± 3.8% 48% 36% 15% 1%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Jill
Stein
Green
Other /
Undecided
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[85] April 5–10, 2024 1,600 (LV) ± 2.45% 48% 36% 3% 13%[x]
YouGov[50][E] January 11–24, 2024 1,500 (RV) ± 2.5% 49% 40% 3% 8%[y]

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Manchin vs. Cornel West

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Joe
Manchin
No Labels
Cornel
West
Independent
Other /
Undecided
National Public Affairs[86] February 6–8, 2024 807 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 35% 6% 4% 3% 9%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[68][H] April 13–21, 2024 743 (LV) 45% 40% 15%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[68][H] April 13–21, 2024 743 (LV) 53% 35% 12%

Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Nikki
Haley
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
UT Tyler[72] February 18–26, 2024 1,167 (RV) ± 3.2% 42% 36% 22%
YouGov[73][D] February 2–12, 2024 1,200 (RV) ± 3.4% 31% 40% 29%[z]
YouGov[50][E] January 11–24, 2024 1,500 (RV) ± 2.5% 43% 39% 18%
YouGov[75][D] December 1–10, 2023 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 33% 36% 31%
YouGov[76][D] October 5–17, 2023 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 32% 34% 34%

Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Nikki
Haley
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Other /
Undecided
UT Tyler[72] February 18–26, 2024 1,167 (RV) ± 3.2% 33% 36% 20% 7% 3% 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[84] February 1–3, 2024 605 (LV) ± 4.0% 30% 32% 14% 0% 0% 24%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Ron
DeSantis
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
YouGov[75][D] December 1–10, 2023 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 39% 37% 24%
YouGov[76][D] October 5–17, 2023 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 39% 38% 24%
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[51] May 8–17, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 2.9% 44% 42% 14%[aa]
CWS Research (R)[77] April 17–21, 2023 677 (LV) ± 3.8% 44% 40% 16%
Echelon Insights[80] August 31 – September 7, 2022 813 (LV) ± 4.4% 44% 41% 15%

Ron DeSantis vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Ron
DeSantis
Republican
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[51] May 8–17, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 2.9% 45% 40% 15%[ab]

Vivek Ramaswamy vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Vivek
Ramaswamy
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
YouGov[75][D] December 1–10, 2023 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 34% 37% 30%
YouGov[76][D] October 5–17, 2023 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 33% 36% 32%

Mike Pence vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Mike
Pence
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
YouGov[76][D] October 5–17, 2023 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 29% 36% 36%

Tim Scott vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Tim
Scott
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
YouGov[76][D] October 5–17, 2023 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 33% 34% 33%


Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in Texas[87]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican 6,375,376 56.26% +4.20
Democratic 4,806,474 42.41% −4.07
Green 82,300 0.73% +0.43
Libertarian 68,264 0.60% −0.52
Write-in
Total votes 11,332,414

By Congressional District

[edit]

By County

[edit]
2024 presidential election in Texas voter demographics[88]
Demographic subgroup Trump Harris % of
total vote
Ideology
Liberals 12 87 18
Moderates 37 62 38
Conservatives 92 8 44
Party
Democrats 4 95 26
Republicans 97 3 38
Independents 49 48 36
Gender
Men 63 35 48
Women 50 49 52
Race/ethnicity
White 66 33 55
Black 12 86 11
Latino 55 45 26
Asian 55 42 4
Gender by race/ethnicity
White men 70 27 25
White women 62 37 30
Black men 22 77 5
Black women 4 94 6
Latino men 65 35 14
Latina women 41 58 12
All other races 58 40 8
White evangelical or born again Christian
Yes 86 13 23
No 46 53 77
Age
18–29 years old 48 50 14
30–44 years old 55 44 24
45–64 years old 58 41 37
65 and older 59 40 26
First time voter
Yes 77 23 9
No 54 44 91
Education
No college degree 61 38 58
College graduate 49 49 42
Education by race
White college graduates 57 41 27
White no college degree 74 25 29
Non-White college graduates 37 62 16
Non-White no college degree 48 51 29
Military service
Veterans 65 34 18
Non-veterans 54 44 82
Area type
Urban 46 52 42
Suburban 62 37 49
Rural 72 25 9
Biden job approval
Strongly disapprove 98 1 52
Somewhat disapprove 35 60 12
Somewhat approve 4 95 21
Strongly approve 1 99 15
Feeling about the way things are going in U.S.
Dissatisfied 50 48 40
Angry 86 13 37
Satisfied 15 85 15
Enthusiastic n/a n/a 8
Quality of candidate that mattered most
Has ability to lead 70 29 29
Can bring needed change 69 29 29
Has good judgment 33 65 23
Cares about people like me 43 57 17
Vote for president mainly
For your candidate 59 40 79
Against their opponent 46 52 20
Issue regarded as most important
Democracy 23 75 31
Economy 87 12 35
Abortion 9 91 14
Immigration 91 9 14
Foreign policy n/a n/a 5
Democracy threatened in the United States
Democracy in the U.S. very threatened 60 38 41
Democracy in the U.S. somewhat threatened 59 40 32
Democracy in the U.S. somewhat secure 46 53 22
Democracy in the U.S. very secure n/a n/a 4
Confident election being conducted fairly and accurately
Very confident 30 68 34
Somewhat confident 68 31 47
Not very confident 56 40 14
Not at all confident n/a n/a 4
Condition of the nation's economy
Not so good 55 44 32
Poor 94 5 39
Good 6 93 25
Excellent n/a n/a 4
Family's financial situation today
Worse than four years ago 84 15 53
About the same 33 65 27
Better than four years ago 12 86 20
Abortion should be
Legal in all cases 10 89 23
Legal in most cases 43 54 35
Illegal in most cases 95 5 31
Illegal in all cases n/a n/a 8
Most undocumented immigrants in the U.S. should be
Offered chance at legal status 21 76 50
Deported 92 7 48

Analysis

[edit]

Trump flipped 10 counties that voted for Biden in 2020, including multiple heavily Hispanic counties in the Rio Grande Valley and South Texas, including 97.7% Hispanic Starr County, becoming the first Republican to win it since Benjamin Harrison in 1892.[89] Trump also became the first Republican to win Maverick County since Herbert Hoover in 1928, the first Republican to win Webb County since William Howard Taft in 1912,[90] the first Republican to win Duval County since Theodore Roosevelt in 1904, the first Republican to win Hidalgo County and Willacy County since Richard Nixon in 1972, and the first Republican to win Cameron County and Culberson County since George W. Bush in 2004. [91] Trump also received the most raw votes for a political candidate ever in Texas, breaking his own record from 2020. Nevertheless, he became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Hays County since Richard Nixon in 1968.

Trump won the three largest metro areas in Texas, which include Dallas-Fort Worth (which Trump carried by a margin of about 7 percentage points), Greater Houston (which Trump also carried by about 7 percentage points), and Greater San Antonio (which Trump carried by about 5 percentage points). Trump also carried every other metro area in the state except for Greater Austin and El Paso (though he greatly improved on his 2020 margins in both of these).[92]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ "Other" with 1%
  4. ^ a b c d "Someone else" with 1%
  5. ^ a b c d e With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  6. ^ "Other" with 7%
  7. ^ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  8. ^ a b "Another candidate" with 2%
  9. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  10. ^ "Someone else"
  11. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  12. ^ "Other candidate" with 3%
  13. ^ "Would not vote" with 4%
  14. ^ "Don't know" with 9%; "Libertarian candidate" with 4%"; "Green Party candidate" with 2%"
  15. ^ "Someone else" with 9%
  16. ^ "Someone else" with 6%
  17. ^ "Someone else" with 7%
  18. ^ "Don't know" with 8%; "Libertarian candidate" with 4%"; "Green Party candidate" with 2%"
  19. ^ Chase Oliver (L) with 0%
  20. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
  21. ^ a b Chase Oliver (L) with 3%
  22. ^ "Someone else" with 5%
  23. ^ Jill Stein (G) with 2%; Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
  24. ^ Undecided with 10%; Chase Oliver (L) with 3%
  25. ^ Libertarian candidate with 1%
  26. ^ "Someone else" with 21%
  27. ^ "Don't know" with 9%; "Libertarian candidate" with 3%"; "Green Party candidate" with 2%"
  28. ^ "Don't know" with 10%; "Libertarian candidate" with 3%"; "Green Party candidate" with 2%"
  1. ^ Poll sponsored by American Thinker
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
  3. ^ a b c d Poll commissioned by Clean and Prosperous America PAC
  4. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u Poll sponsored by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas
  5. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston
  6. ^ Poll sponsored by Texans for Fiscal Responsibility
  7. ^ Poll sponsored by Texas Gun Rights
  8. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  9. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group
  10. ^ Poll sponsored by Defend Texas Liberty PAC
  11. ^ Poll sponsored by the University of Houston and Texas Southern University

References

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