Jump to content

2024 United States presidential election in Texas

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2024 United States presidential election in Texas

← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Electoral vote 40 0
Popular vote 6,375,318 4,806,441
Percentage 56.22% 42.38%

County Results

President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in Texas was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Texas voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Texas has 40 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained two seats.[1]

One of the most populous, fast-growing, and diverse states in the U.S., Texas is generally considered to be a red state, not having voted Democratic in a presidential election since southerner Jimmy Carter won it in 1976 and with Republicans holding all statewide offices since 1999. Texas’s location in the American South and largely in the greater Bible Belt has given the Republican Party the upper hand in the state in recent decades.[2] Nonetheless, Texas was considered by some to be potentially competitive, as the state had not backed a Republican for president by double digits since it favored Mitt Romney in 2012, which was largely credited to the fast-growing Texas Triangle, which trended leftwards in some elections, namely in the closely-contested 2018 U.S. Senate race and the 2020 U.S. presidential election which both saw the Metroplex county of Tarrant and the Greater Austin counties of Williamson and Hays flip blue for the first time in decades. However, in the 2020 elections, predominantly-Hispanic South Texas shifted significantly rightward, a trend that the rest of the state followed in the 2022 midterms.[3][4] In the end, Trump won Texas by a margin of over 1.5 million votes; the second largest margin of victory for any presidential candidate in Texas history.[5]

Incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden initially ran for re-election and became the party's presumptive nominee.[6] However, following what was widely viewed as a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and amid increasing age and health concerns from within his party, he withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[7] Biden's withdrawal from the race makes him the first eligible president not to stand for re-election since Texan native Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968.

Former Republican President Donald Trump ran for re-election to a second non-consecutive term after his defeat in the 2020 election.[8] Having carried Texas by single-digit margins in the past two presidential elections (by a 9% margin in 2016 and by 5.6% in 2020), Trump once again carried The Lone Star State, and with a victory margin of nearly 14%, he significantly outperformed his polling averages in the state and became the first presidential candidate to win Texas by double digits since Mitt Romney in 2012, possibly seeing a reversion of the blue trend that Texas had seen in recent years, especially with Hispanics in Texas continuing to heavily shift right. Trump received over six million votes, becoming the first presidential candidate to achieve that feat in Texas and setting a record for the most raw votes received in the state.

Trump flipped 10 counties that voted for Biden in 2020, including multiple heavily Hispanic counties in the Rio Grande Valley and South Texas, including 97.7% Hispanic Starr County, becoming the first Republican to win it since Benjamin Harrison in 1892. Trump also became the first Republican to win Maverick County since Herbert Hoover in 1928, the first Republican to win Webb County since William Howard Taft in 1912, and the first Republican to win Duval County since Theodore Roosevelt in 1904. Trump’s performance in Hispanic-dominated South Texas was the strongest by a Republican candidate since Richard Nixon’s landslide victory in 1972, as Trump won several counties that even Nixon was unable to flip (Maverick, Webb, Duval, Zapata, Starr), though Nixon carried two counties Trump was unable to flip (Zavala and Dimmit). Trump also received the most raw votes for a political candidate ever in Texas, breaking his own record from 2020.

Trump won the three largest metro areas in Texas, which include Dallas-Fort Worth (which Trump carried by a margin of about 7 precentage points), Greater Houston (which Trump also carried by about 7 percentage points), and Greater San Antonio (which Trump carried by about 5 percentage points). Trump also carried every other metro area in the state except for Greater Austin and El Paso (though he greatly improved on his 2020 margins in both of these).

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]

The Texas Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Incumbent president Joe Biden won the state in a landslide, with minor opposition from various other candidates, particularly in the Lower Rio Grande Valley region. Biden lost Loving County, in which there was only one ballot cast for Frankie Lozada.

Popular vote share by county
  Biden
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
  Lozada
  •   100%
  No votes
Texas Democratic primary, March 5, 2024[9]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 831,247 84.6% 244 244
Marianne Williamson 43,667 4.5%
Armando Perez-Serrato 27,473 2.8%
Dean Phillips 26,473 2.7%
Gabriel Cornejo 17,196 1.8%
Cenk Uygur 16,100 1.6%
Frankie Lozada 11,311 1.2%
Star Locke 8,602 0.9%
Total: 982,069 100% 272 272

Republican primary

[edit]

The Texas Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald Trump easily won the state and all of its delegates against Nikki Haley, who remained his only major opposition. Trump received the endorsements of U.S. senators John Cornyn and Ted Cruz, as well as Texas governor Greg Abbott, in his primary campaign.

Popular vote share by county
  Trump
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
  Haley
  •   60–70%
Texas Republican primary, March 5, 2024[10]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 1,808,269 77.84% 161 161
Nikki Haley 405,472 17.45%
Uncommitted 45,568 1.96%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 36,302 1.56%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 10,582 0.46%
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 8,938 0.38%
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) 2,964 0.13%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) 2,585 0.11%
David Stuckenberg 2,339 0.10%
Total: 2,323,019 100.00% 161 161


Robert F. Kennedy Jr. independent bid

[edit]

The Texas Secretary of State's office announced on August 8 that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would appear on the state ballot.[11] Kennedy later dropped out of the race nationally on August 23.[12][13]

General election

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in Texas:[14]

In addition, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was on the ballot under the Texas Independent Party before he suspended his campaign.

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[15] Likely R August 27, 2024
Inside Elections[16] Likely R August 29, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] Likely R September 25, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[18] Likely R October 4, 2024
CNN[19] Solid R January 14, 2024
The Economist[20] Likely R June 13, 2024
538[21] Likely R October 5, 2024
CNalysis[22] Lean R November 4, 2024
NBC News[23] Likely R October 6, 2024
YouGov[24] Lean R October 16, 2024
Split Ticket[25] Likely R November 1, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Undecided
[a]
Margin
270ToWin October 18 – November 3, 2024 November 3, 2024 44.4% 51.8% 3.8% Trump +7.4%
538 through November 3, 2024 November 3, 2024 43.8% 51.7% 4.5% Trump +7.9%
Silver Bulletin through November 3, 2024 November 3, 2024 44.3% 51.4% 4.3% Trump +7.1%
The Hill/DDHQ through October 29, 2024 November 3, 2024 44.2% 51.8% 4.0% Trump +7.6%
Average 44.2% 51.7% 4.1% Trump +7.5%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
AtlasIntel[26] November 3–4, 2024 2,434 (LV) ± 2.0% 55% 44% 1%
Morning Consult[27] October 22−31, 2024 2,120 (LV) ± 2.0% 52% 45% 3%
ActiVote[28] October 21−27, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 55% 45%
New York Times/Siena College[29] October 23−26, 2024 1,180 (RV) ± 3.3% 52% 41% 7%
1,180 (LV) 52% 42% 6%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[30][A] October 24–25, 2024 1,002 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 44% 6%[c]
CES/YouGov[31] October 1–25, 2024 6,526 (A) 51% 47% 2%
6,473 (LV) 51% 47% 2%
Emerson College[32] October 18−21, 2024 815 (LV) ± 3.4% 53% 46% 1%[d]
53%[e] 46% 1%[d]
Rose Institute/YouGov[33] October 7–17, 2024 1,108 (RV) ± 3.5% 49% 44% 7%[f]
1,108 (RV) 50%[e] 45% 5%
1,075 (LV) 51% 46% 3%
ActiVote[34] September 26 − October 16, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 56% 44%
Morning Consult[27] October 6−15, 2024 2,048 (LV) ± 2.0% 50% 46% 4%
Marist College[35] October 3–7, 2024 1,365 (RV) ± 3.3% 52% 46% 2%[g]
1,186 (LV) ± 3.6% 53% 46% 1%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[36] October 2–6, 2024 811 (RV) ± 3.4% 50% 45% 5%[h]
775 (LV) 50% 45% 5%[h]
New York Times/Siena College[37] September 29 – October 6, 2024 617 (LV) ± 5.0% 50% 44% 6%
RMG Research[38][B] September 25–27, 2024 779 (LV) ± 3.5% 51% 45% 3%[i]
53%[e] 46% 1%
Public Policy Polling (D)[39][C] September 25–26, 2024 759 (RV) ± 3.5% 51% 46% 3%
Emerson College[40] September 22−24, 2024 950 (LV) ± 3.1% 51% 46% 3%[d]
52%[e] 47% 1%[d]
ActiVote[41] September 7−24, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 54% 46%
Morning Consult[27] September 9−18, 2024 2,716 (LV) ± 2.0% 50% 46% 4%
Morning Consult[27] August 30 – September 8, 2024 2,940 (LV) ± 2.0% 52% 43% 5%
Emerson College[42] September 3–5, 2024 845 (LV) ± 3.3% 50% 46% 4%
51%[e] 48% 1%[j]
YouGov[43][D] August 23–31, 2024 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 49% 44% 7%[k]
ActiVote[44] August 14–31, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 54.5% 45.5%
Quantus Insights (R)[45] August 29–30, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 49% 42% 9%[l]
52% 44% 4%[m]
August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
Public Policy Polling (D)[46][C] August 21–22, 2024 725 (RV) ± 3.6% 49% 44% 6%
August 19–22, 2024 Democratic National Convention
ActiVote[47] July 31 – August 13, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 53% 47%
August 6, 2024 Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate.
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.
July 15–19, 2024 Republican National Convention
July 13, 2024 Attempted assassination of Donald Trump
YouGov[48][E] January 11–24, 2024 1,500 (RV) ± 2.5% 52% 39% 9%
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[49] May 8–17, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 2.9% 46% 39% 15%[n]

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Chase
Oliver
Libertarian
Other /
Undecided
AtlasIntel[26] November 3–4, 2024 2,434 (LV) ± 2.0% 54% 44% 1% 0% 1%
Cygnal (R)[50] October 26−28, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 43% 2% 2% 2%
New York Times/Siena College[29] October 23−26, 2024 1,180 (RV) ± 3.3% 50% 40% 2% 2% 6%
1,180 (LV) 51% 40% 1% 1% 7%
UT Tyler[51] October 14–21, 2024 1,129 (RV) ± 3.0% 51% 45% 1% 2% 1%
956 (LV) 51% 46% 1% 1% 1%
YouGov[52][D] October 2–10, 2024 1,091 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 46% 2% 1%
CWS Research (R)[53][F] October 1–4, 2024 533 (LV) ± 4.2% 48% 43% 2% 1% 6%
University of Houston[54] September 26 – October 10, 2024 1,329 (LV) ± 2.7% 51% 46% 1% 0% 2%
Public Policy Polling (D)[39][C] September 25–26, 2024 759 (RV) ± 3.5% 49% 44% 0% 1% 6%
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[55] September 13–18, 2024 1,200 (LV) ± 2.9% 50% 44% 1% 1% 4%
CWS Research (R)[56][G] September 4–9, 2024 504 (LV) ± 4.4% 51% 41% 0% 2% 6%
Texas Public Opinion Research/Lake Research Partners (D)[57] August 24–29, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 51% 43% 2% 2% 2%
YouGov[43][D] August 23–31, 2024 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 49% 44% 2% 0% 5%
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Chase
Oliver
Libertarian
Other /
Undecided
New York Times/Siena College[37] September 29 – October 6, 2024 617 (LV) ± 5.0% 49% 42% 0% 0% 2% 2% 5%
Public Policy Polling (D)[58][C] August 21–22, 2024 725 (RV) ± 3.6% 45% 42% 6% 1% 0% 6%
University of Houston[59] August 5–16, 2024 1,365 (LV) ± 2.7% 50% 45% 2% 1% 1% 1%
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
ActiVote[60] June 25 – July 18, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 54% 46%
Remington Research Group (R)[61] June 29 – July 1, 2024 589 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 39% 12%
Manhattan Institute[62] June 25–27, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 52% 41% 7%
UT Tyler[63] June 11–20, 2024 1,144 (RV) ± 3.7% 46% 40% 14%
931 (LV) ± 3.8% 48% 43% 9%
YouGov[64][D] May 31 – June 9, 2024 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 46% 39% 15%[o]
YouGov[65][D] April 12–22, 2024 1,200 (RV) ± 3.3% 48% 40% 12%[p]
John Zogby Strategies[66][H] April 13–21, 2024 743 (LV) 50% 40% 10%
Cygnal (R)[67] April 4–6, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 2.9% 51% 42% 7%
Marist College[68] March 18–21, 2024 1,117 (RV) ± 3.8% 55% 44% 1%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[69] February 29 – March 3, 2024 489 (RV) 50% 42% 8%
458 (LV) 51% 42% 7%
UT Tyler[70] February 18–26, 2024 1,167 (RV) ± 3.2% 46% 42% 12%
YouGov[71][D] February 2–12, 2024 1,200 (RV) ± 3.4% 48% 41% 11%[q]
YouGov[48][E] January 11–24, 2024 1,145 (LV) ± 2.5% 49% 40% 11%
Emerson College[72][I] January 13–15, 2024 1,315 (RV) ± 2.6% 49% 41% 10%
YouGov[73][D] December 1–10, 2023 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 45% 39% 16%
YouGov[74][D] October 5–17, 2023 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 45% 37% 18%
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[49] May 8–17, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 2.9% 44% 42% 14%[r]
CWS Research (R)[75][J] April 17–21, 2023 677 (LV) ± 3.8% 45% 42% 13%
Emerson College[76] October 17–19, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 40% 13%
Emerson College[77] September 20–22, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 40% 11%
Echelon Insights[78] August 31 – September 7, 2022 813 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 43% 9%
Blueprint Polling (D)[79] June 8–10, 2022 603 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 38% 17%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Other /
Undecided
YouGov[80][K] June 20 – July 1, 2024 1,484 (LV) ± 2.5% 49% 40% 5% 2% 4%[s]
Manhattan Institute[62] June 25–27, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 36% 7% 1% 0% 11%[t]
UT Tyler[63] June 11–20, 2024 1,144 (RV) ± 3.7% 46% 38% 12% 1% 3%[u]
931 (LV) ± 3.8% 47% 41% 8% 1% 3%[u]
YouGov[64][D] May 31 – June 9, 2024 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 43% 34% 8% 2% 2% 11%
YouGov[65][D] April 12–22, 2024 1,200 (RV) ± 3.3% 45% 36% 8% 2% 2% 7%
Texas Lyceum[81] April 12–21, 2024 926 (RV) ± 3.2% 41% 31% 11% 1% 1% 15%[v]
Cygnal (R)[67] April 4–6, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 2.9% 46% 37% 8% 1% 2% 6%
UT Tyler[70] February 18–26, 2024 1,167 (RV) ± 3.2% 41% 37% 13% 6% 3%
YouGov[71][D] February 2–12, 2024 1,200 (RV) ± 3.4% 45% 36% 6% 3% 2% 8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[82] February 1–3, 2024 605 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 35% 6% 1% 1% 13%
Emerson College[72][I] January 13–15, 2024 1,315 (RV) ± 2.6% 46% 36% 5% 1% 1% 11%
YouGov[73][D] December 1–10, 2023 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 42% 34% 8% 3% 2% 12%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[83] April 5–10, 2024 1,600 (LV) ± 2.45% 46% 34% 9% 11%[w]
Marist College[68] March 18–21, 2024 1,117 (RV) ± 3.8% 48% 36% 15% 1%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Jill
Stein
Green
Other /
Undecided
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[83] April 5–10, 2024 1,600 (LV) ± 2.45% 48% 36% 3% 13%[x]
YouGov[48][E] January 11–24, 2024 1,500 (RV) ± 2.5% 49% 40% 3% 8%[y]

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Manchin vs. Cornel West

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Joe
Manchin
No Labels
Cornel
West
Independent
Other /
Undecided
National Public Affairs[84] February 6–8, 2024 807 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 35% 6% 4% 3% 9%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[66][H] April 13–21, 2024 743 (LV) 45% 40% 15%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[66][H] April 13–21, 2024 743 (LV) 53% 35% 12%

Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Nikki
Haley
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
UT Tyler[70] February 18–26, 2024 1,167 (RV) ± 3.2% 42% 36% 22%
YouGov[71][D] February 2–12, 2024 1,200 (RV) ± 3.4% 31% 40% 29%[z]
YouGov[48][E] January 11–24, 2024 1,500 (RV) ± 2.5% 43% 39% 18%
YouGov[73][D] December 1–10, 2023 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 33% 36% 31%
YouGov[74][D] October 5–17, 2023 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 32% 34% 34%

Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Nikki
Haley
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Other /
Undecided
UT Tyler[70] February 18–26, 2024 1,167 (RV) ± 3.2% 33% 36% 20% 7% 3% 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[82] February 1–3, 2024 605 (LV) ± 4.0% 30% 32% 14% 0% 0% 24%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Ron
DeSantis
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
YouGov[73][D] December 1–10, 2023 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 39% 37% 24%
YouGov[74][D] October 5–17, 2023 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 39% 38% 24%
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[49] May 8–17, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 2.9% 44% 42% 14%[aa]
CWS Research (R)[75] April 17–21, 2023 677 (LV) ± 3.8% 44% 40% 16%
Echelon Insights[78] August 31 – September 7, 2022 813 (LV) ± 4.4% 44% 41% 15%

Ron DeSantis vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Ron
DeSantis
Republican
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[49] May 8–17, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 2.9% 45% 40% 15%[ab]

Vivek Ramaswamy vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Vivek
Ramaswamy
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
YouGov[73][D] December 1–10, 2023 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 34% 37% 30%
YouGov[74][D] October 5–17, 2023 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 33% 36% 32%

Mike Pence vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Mike
Pence
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
YouGov[74][D] October 5–17, 2023 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 29% 36% 36%

Tim Scott vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Tim
Scott
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
YouGov[74][D] October 5–17, 2023 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 33% 34% 33%


Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in Texas[85]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican 6,375,362 56.26% +4.20
Democratic 4,806,436 42.41% −4.07
Green 82,299 0.73% +0.43
Libertarian 68,264 0.60% −0.52
Write-in
Total votes 11,332,361

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ "Other" with 1%
  4. ^ a b c d "Someone else" with 1%
  5. ^ a b c d e With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  6. ^ "Other" with 7%
  7. ^ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  8. ^ a b "Another candidate" with 2%
  9. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  10. ^ "Someone else"
  11. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  12. ^ "Other candidate" with 3%
  13. ^ "Would not vote" with 4%
  14. ^ "Don't know" with 9%; "Libertarian candidate" with 4%"; "Green Party candidate" with 2%"
  15. ^ "Someone else" with 9%
  16. ^ "Someone else" with 6%
  17. ^ "Someone else" with 7%
  18. ^ "Don't know" with 8%; "Libertarian candidate" with 4%"; "Green Party candidate" with 2%"
  19. ^ Chase Oliver (L) with 0%
  20. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
  21. ^ a b Chase Oliver (L) with 3%
  22. ^ "Someone else" with 5%
  23. ^ Jill Stein (G) with 2%; Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
  24. ^ Undecided with 10%; Chase Oliver (L) with 3%
  25. ^ Libertarian candidate with 1%
  26. ^ "Someone else" with 21%
  27. ^ "Don't know" with 9%; "Libertarian candidate" with 3%"; "Green Party candidate" with 2%"
  28. ^ "Don't know" with 10%; "Libertarian candidate" with 3%"; "Green Party candidate" with 2%"
  1. ^ Poll sponsored by American Thinker
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
  3. ^ a b c d Poll commissioned by Clean and Prosperous America PAC
  4. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u Poll sponsored by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas
  5. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston
  6. ^ Poll sponsored by Texans for Fiscal Responsibility
  7. ^ Poll sponsored by Texas Gun Rights
  8. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  9. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group
  10. ^ Poll sponsored by Defend Texas Liberty PAC
  11. ^ Poll sponsored by the University of Houston and Texas Southern University

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ^ Barabak, Mark Z. (December 7, 2023). "Column: In two decades, much of the West has turned blue. Why hasn't Texas?". Los Angeles Times.
  3. ^ "House Generic Ballot Estimates, 2008-2022". Split Ticket. April 7, 2023.
  4. ^ "Republican victories show Texas is still far from turning blue". The Texas Tribune. November 9, 2022. As large as the cities are and how Democratic that they are, Texas Democrats still don't have a way to get past that red wall of rural West Texas, [Drew Landry] said. Rural Texas still rules the day. I was seeing some very, very close numbers before a lot of the rural counties reported [election returns], and once they did, it just blew the door open for Abbott.
  5. ^ Jack Fink (November 9, 2024). "Trump's margin of victory in Texas is largest for a president-elect in 20 years". CBS News.
  6. ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC. Archived from the original on April 25, 2023. Retrieved April 25, 2023.
  7. ^ "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 21, 2024.
  8. ^ Orr, Gabby (November 16, 2022). "Former President Donald Trump announces a White House bid for 2024". CNN.com. Retrieved October 8, 2023.
  9. ^ "Texas Democratic Primary Election Results". Texas Secretary of State. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  10. ^ "Texas Republican Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
  11. ^ Salinas, Juan (August 8, 2024). "Robert Kennedy Jr. will be on the 2024 Texas ballot". The Texas Tribune. Retrieved August 9, 2024.
  12. ^ "RFK Jr. endorses Trump after weeks of back-channel courtship". NBC News. August 23, 2024. Retrieved August 25, 2024.
  13. ^ Dovere, Aaron Pellish, Edward-Isaac (August 23, 2024). "RFK Jr. suspends presidential campaign | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved August 25, 2024.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  14. ^ "The Green Papers: 2024 Presidential Candidate Ballot Access by State". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved September 1, 2024.
  15. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  16. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  17. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  18. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  19. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  20. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  21. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 1, 2024.
  22. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
  23. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  24. ^ "2024 Presidential Election Polls". YouGov.
  25. ^ "2024 Presidential Forcast". Split Ticket. June 2, 2023.
  26. ^ a b "Atlas Poll - US Key States - November 4, 2024" (PDF). AtlasIntel. November 4, 2024.
  27. ^ a b c d Easley, Cameron; Yokley, Eli (September 9, 2024). "Tracking the 2024 Election: State by State". Morning Consult.
  28. ^ Allis, Victor (October 28, 2024). "Trump has double digit lead in Texas". ActiVote.
  29. ^ a b Weisman, Jonathan; Baker, Camille (October 28, 2024). "Republicans Cling to Slim Leads in Nebraska and Texas Senate Races". The New York Times.
  30. ^ "Election 2024: Harris 48%, Trump 46% in Virginia; Cruz +4 in Texas". Rasmussen Reports. October 28, 2024.
  31. ^ "2024 presidential vote preferences by state". Cooperative Election Study. October 29, 2024.
  32. ^ "October 2024 Texas Poll: Trump 53%, Harris 46%". Emerson College Polling. October 23, 2024.
  33. ^ Sinclair, J. Andrew; Miller, Kenneth P. (October 30, 2024). "Texas Continues to Lean Red as Trump, Cruz Mantain Narrow Leads" (PDF). Claremont McKenna College Rose Institute of State and Local Government.
  34. ^ Allis, Victor (October 17, 2024). "Trump has double digit lead in Texas". ActiVote.
  35. ^ "U.S. Presidential Contest: Texas, October 2024 - Marist Texas Poll". Marist Poll. October 10, 2024.
  36. ^ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Texas" (PDF). FAU Polling. October 8, 2024.
  37. ^ a b "Cross-Tabs: October 2024 Times/Siena Poll of the Likely Electorate in Texas". The New York Times. October 8, 2024.
  38. ^ "TEXAS: Trump 53% Harris 46%". Napolitan Institute. October 1, 2024.
  39. ^ a b "Latest Polls Show Competitive Senate Races in TX and FL" (PDF). Clean and Prosperous America. September 29, 2024.
  40. ^ "September 2024 Texas Poll: Trump 51%, Harris 46%". Emerson College Polling. September 26, 2024.
  41. ^ Allis, Victor (September 25, 2024). "Trump stays comfortably ahead in Texas". ActiVote. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
  42. ^ "September State Polling: California, Florida, Ohio, Texas". Emerson College Polling. September 6, 2024.
  43. ^ a b "University of Texas / Texas Politics Project Poll - Texas Statewide Survey" (PDF). University of Texas. September 6, 2024.
  44. ^ Allis, Victor (August 31, 2024). "Trump extends lead in Texas". ActiVote. Retrieved August 31, 2024.
  45. ^ "Trump and Cruz Lead Comfortably in Texas". Substack. August 30, 2024.
  46. ^ "New Surveys Show Texas and Florida Have Competitive Senate Elections" (PDF). Clean and Prosperous America. August 27, 2024.
  47. ^ Allis, Victor (August 13, 2024). "Trump Leads Harris in Texas". ActiVote. Retrieved August 14, 2024.
  48. ^ a b c d "Texas Primary Election 2024 Presidential Candidates" (PDF). University of Houston. January 30, 2024.
  49. ^ a b c d "The TxHPF TEGNA 2023 Texas Legislative Session Issues Report" (PDF). Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation. May 17, 2023.
  50. ^ "Texas Poll: Harris Drags Allred Down as Democrats' White Whale Disappears". Cygnal. October 29, 2024.
  51. ^ "Topline Report of Texas Voters" (PDF). University of Texas at Tyler. October 29, 2024.
  52. ^ Henson, Jim; Blank, Joshua (October 18, 2024). "With voting about to start in Texas, Trump and Cruz maintain single-digit leads in new University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll". University of Texas.
  53. ^ "Press Release: TFR Poll Reveals Texans Believe Harris Will Raise Taxes; Support Fiscal Restraint". Texans for Fiscal Responsibility. October 21, 2024.
  54. ^ "Texas Votes 2024 - Statewide Races, Issues & Favorability October 2024" (PDF). University of Houston. October 15, 2024.
  55. ^ "Ted Cruz, Colin Allred virtually tied in race for U.S. Senate, according to new poll". WFAA. September 23, 2024.
  56. ^ Cacciatore, Luca (October 3, 2024). "Poll: Texas Voters Believe Colin Allred, Kamala Harris Will Restrict Gun Rights". Texas Scorecard.
  57. ^ Warford, Luke (September 13, 2024). "Introducing Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR)!". Substack.
  58. ^ "New Surveys Show Texas and Florida Have Competitive Senate Elections" (PDF). Clean and Prosperous America. August 27, 2024.
  59. ^ "Texas Trends 2024 - General Election: August" (PDF). University of Houston. August 22, 2024.
  60. ^ Allis, Victor (July 19, 2024). "Cruz and Trump Lead Comfortably in Texas". ActiVote.
  61. ^ Pearce, Tim (July 3, 2024). "Exclusive: Battleground Poll Shows Biden Tanking In Key States After Disastrous Debate". The Daily Wire.
  62. ^ a b Arm, Jesse (July 2, 2024). "Testing Texas: Survey Analysis of Likely Lone Star State Voters on Election 2024 and Transgender Issues". Manhattan Institute.
  63. ^ a b "Survey of Registered Voters in Texas" (PDF). University of Texas at Tyler. June 20, 2024.
  64. ^ a b "University of Texas / Texas Politics Project Poll - Texas Statewide Survey" (PDF). DocumentCloud. June 20, 2024.
  65. ^ a b "University of Texas / Texas Politics Project Poll - Texas Statewide Survey" (PDF). University of Texas at Austin. May 1, 2024.
  66. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  67. ^ a b "Survey of Likely General Election Voters Texas Statewide" (PDF). Cygnal. April 10, 2024.
  68. ^ a b "The Battleground 2024: Texas - Marist Texas Poll". Marist Poll. March 26, 2024.
  69. ^ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Super Tuesday States" (PDF). FAU Polling. March 4, 2024.
  70. ^ a b c d "Survey of Registered Voters in Texas" (PDF). FiveThirtyEight. February 29, 2024.
  71. ^ a b c "University of Texas / Texas Politics Project Poll - Texas Statewide Survey" (PDF). University of Texas at Austin. February 19, 2024.
  72. ^ a b Mumford, Camille (January 18, 2024). "Texas 2024 Poll: Allred Leads Democratic Senate Primary, Plurality are Undecided". Emerson Polling.
  73. ^ a b c d e "University of Texas / Texas Politics Project Poll - Texas Statewide Survey" (PDF). University of Texas at Austin. December 19, 2023.
  74. ^ a b c d e f "University of Texas / Texas Politics Project Poll - Texas Statewide Survey" (PDF). University of Texas at Austin. October 25, 2023.
  75. ^ a b "Defend Texas Liberty PAC Q1 2023 Texas 2024 General Election Likely Voter Poll". Google Docs. April 25, 2023.
  76. ^ Mumford, Camille (October 24, 2022). "Texas 2022: Abbott Holds Ten-Point Lead for Governor; Majority of Voters Support Migrant Busing". Emerson Polling.
  77. ^ Mumford, Camille (September 27, 2022). "Texas 2022: Greg Abbott Leads Beto O'Rourke By Eight in Gubernatorial Election". Emerson Polling.
  78. ^ a b Chavez, Krista (September 13, 2022). "New National Poll: 89% of Americans Say Congress Should Focus on Addressing Inflation, Not Breaking Up Tech". NetChoice.
  79. ^ "Uvalde Tragedy Moves Texas Opinion in Gun Safety Debate" (PDF). Blueprint Polling. June 13, 2022. Archived from the original (PDF) on June 15, 2022.
  80. ^ "Texas Trends 2024 - General Election" (PDF). University of Houston. July 11, 2024.
  81. ^ "TEXAS LYCEUM POLL - 2024 Texas Statewide Survey" (PDF). DocumentCloud. May 23, 2024.
  82. ^ a b "The View from Texas: Presidential Voting Intention and Approval Rating (1-3 February 2024)". Redfield & Wilton Strategies. February 7, 2024.
  83. ^ a b "THE 2024 PRESIDENTIAL AND TEXAS U.S. SENATE ELECTION CONTESTS - A STUDY OF TEXAS VOTERS AND TEXAS HISPANIC VOTERS" (PDF). Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation. April 16, 2024.
  84. ^ "Texas Statewide General Election Research" (PDF). National Public Affairs. February 15, 2024. Archived from the original (PDF) on March 17, 2024.
  85. ^ "Candidate Information". candidate.texas-election.com. Retrieved September 23, 2024.